怒江断裂现今错动速率与地震危险性
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摘要
针对怒江水电开发问题的争论之一:怒江断裂带的现今活动性及其地震危险性。通过分析怒江地区最新GPS观测数据,采用剖面投影方法估算得到怒江断裂亚碧罗—六库段、六库—赛格段和赛格以南段的右旋走滑速率分别为(4.7±0.8)mm/a、(6.4±1.1)mm/a和(4.3±0.3)mm/a,拉张速率分别为(3.9±0.6)mm/a、(5.6±1.1)mm/a和(4.5±0.3)mm/a。结合怒江地区的地震资料,分别通过弹性能累积量和同震位错量与震级间的统计关系进行地震危险性分析,认为上述断裂段分别具有发生6.4级、6.5级和6.4级地震的危险性,且不排除发生更大震级地震的可能。由于怒江断裂大体沿怒江展布,为保证水坝安全,其选址和抗震设防强度要求应当考虑以上断层活动性和地震危险性评估结果。
Disputes arise during the hydroelectric development along the Nujiang River,among which we focus on the present activity of the Nujiang Fault and its potential earthquake risks. Using velocity profiles derived from an updated GPS dataset in the Nujiang region,slip rates are estimated as 4.7 ±0.8,6.4 ± 1.1,and( 4.3 ± 0.3) mm / a right-laterally and 3.9 ± 0.6,5.6 ± 1.1,and( 4.5 ± 0.3) mm / a extensionally along the Yabiluo-Liuku,Liuku-Saige,and south Saige segments of the Nujiang Fault,respectively. According to the relationship between accumulated amount of elastic energy and fault slip rate and that between earthquake magnitude and rupture displacement,above estimates and earthquake catalog suggest potentials of earthquakes with magnitudes 6.4,6.5,and 6.4 or even larger on the Yabiluo-Liuku,Liuku-Saige,south Saige segments,respectively. Provided that the surface trace of the Nujiang Fault is distributed generally along the Nujiang River,our estimates of fault slip rates and seismic potentials should be taken into account in dam siting and determining requirements of seismic fortification for safety.
Disputes arise during the hydroelectric development along the Nujiang River,among which we focus on the present activity of the Nujiang Fault and its potential earthquake risks. Using velocity profiles derived from an updated GPS dataset in the Nujiang region,slip rates are estimated as 4.7 ±0.8,6.4 ± 1.1,and( 4.3 ± 0.3) mm / a right-laterally and 3.9 ± 0.6,5.6 ± 1.1,and( 4.5 ± 0.3) mm / a extensionally along the Yabiluo-Liuku,Liuku-Saige,and south Saige segments of the Nujiang Fault,respectively. According to the relationship between accumulated amount of elastic energy and fault slip rate and that between earthquake magnitude and rupture displacement,above estimates and earthquake catalog suggest potentials of earthquakes with magnitudes 6.4,6.5,and 6.4 or even larger on the Yabiluo-Liuku,Liuku-Saige,south Saige segments,respectively. Provided that the surface trace of the Nujiang Fault is distributed generally along the Nujiang River,our estimates of fault slip rates and seismic potentials should be taken into account in dam siting and determining requirements of seismic fortification for safety.
引文
陈达生.1984.地震引起的地表破裂长度与震级之间的经验关系[J].华北地震科学,2(2):26—32.CHEN Da-sheng.1984.Empirical relationship between surface rupture length and magnitude of earthquake[J]North China Earthquake Sciences,2(2):26—32(in Chinese).
邓起东,于贵华,叶文华.1992.地震地表破裂参数与震级关系的研究[A].见:国家地震局地质研究所编活动断裂研究(2).北京:地震出版社.247—264.DENG Qi-dong,YU Gui-hua,YE Wen-hua.1992.Research on relationship between surface rupture parameters andmagnitude of earthquake[A].In:Institute of Geology,SSB(ed).Research on Active Faults(2).SeismologicaPress,Beijing.247—264(in Chinese).
国家地震局震害防御司.1995.中国历史强震目录(公元前23世纪—公元1911年)[M].北京:地震出版社Earthquake Disaster Prevention Department of China Seismological Bureau.1995.Historical Strong Earthquake Cataloin China(the 23rdCentury BC—1911 AD)[M].Seismological Press,Beijing(in Chinese).
郭增建,秦保燕.1979.震源物理[M].北京:地震出版社.104—158.GUO Zeng-jian,QIN Bao-yan.1979.Physics of Earthquake Source[M].Seismological Press,Beijing.104—158(inChinese).
黄玮琼,李文香,曹学锋.1994.中国大陆地震资料完整性研究之二:分区地震资料基本完整的起始年分布图像[J].地震学报,16(4):423—432.HUANG Wei-qiong,LI Wen-xiang,CAO Xue-feng.1994.Research on the completeness of earthquake data on theChinese mainland(Ⅱ):The regional distribution of the beginning years of basically complete earthquake data[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica,16(4):423—432(in Chinese).
李京昌.1998.滇西怒江断裂带新构造特征[J].地震地质,20(4):312—320.LI Jing-chang.1998.Neotectonic feature of the Nujiang Fault zone in western Yunnan[J].Seismology and Geology,20(4):312—320(in Chinese).
李忠华,苏有锦,蔡明军,等.1999.云南地区震源破裂长度与震级的经验关系[J].西北地震学报,21(3):331—333.LI Zhong-hua,SU You-jin,CAI Ming-jun,et al.1999.Empirical relationships between magnitude and source rupturelength in Yunnan[J].Northwestern Seismological Journal,21(3):331—333(in Chinese).
龙锋,闻学泽,徐锡伟.2006.华北地区地震活断层的震级-破裂长度、破裂面积的经验关系[J].地震地质,28(4):511—535.LONG Feng,WEN Xue-ze,XU Xi-wei.2006.Empirical relationships between magnitude and rupture length,andrupture area,for seismogenic active faults in North China[J].Seismology and Geology,28(4):511—535(inChinese).
马宏生,张国民,周龙泉,等.2008.川滇地区中小震重新定位与速度结构的联合反演研究[J].地震,28(2):29—38.MA Hong-sheng,ZHANG Guo-min,ZHOU Long-quan,et al.2008.Simultaneous inversion of small earthquakerelocation and velocity structure in Sichuan-Yunnan area[J].Earthquake,28(2):29—38(in Chinese).
申重阳,吴云,王琪,等.2002.云南地区主要断层运动模型的GPS数据反演[J].大地测量与地球动力学,22(3):46—51.SHEN Chong-yang,WU Yun,WANG Qi,et al.2002.GPS data inversion of kinematic model of main faults inYunnan[J].Journal of Geodesy and Geodynamics,22(3):46—51(in Chinese).
宋键.2011.喜马拉雅东构造结周边地区主要断裂现今运动特征与数值模拟研究[D]:[学位论文].北京:中国地震局地质研究所.SONG Jian.2011.Study on current movement characteristics and numerical simulation of the main faults aroundEastern Himalayan Syntaxis[D].Doctoral dissertation.Institute of Geology,China Earthquake Administration,Beijing(in Chinese).
唐方头,宋键,曹忠权,等.2010.最新GPS数据揭示的东构造结周边主要断裂带的运动特征[J].地球物理学报,53(9):2119—2128.doi:10.3969/j.issn.001-5733.2010.09.012.TANG Fang-tou,SONG Jian,CAO Zhong-quan,et al.2010.The movement characters of main faults around EasternHimalayan Syntaxis revealed by the latest GPS data[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics,53(9):2119—2128(inChinese).doi:10.3969/j.issn.001-5733.2010.09.012.
吴根耀.1991.中缅泰交界区的断裂及其新构造活动方式[J].第四纪研究,1:28—37.WU Gen-yao.1991.Faults in the border zone among China,Burma,and Thailand and their neotectonic active modes[J].Quaternary Sciences,1:28—37(in Chinese).
吴开统,焦远碧,吕培琴,等.1990.地震序列概论[M].北京:北京大学出版社.WU Kai-tong,JIAO Yuan-bi,LPei-qin,et al.1990.An Introduction to Earthquake Sequence[M].PekingUniversity Press,Beijing(in Chinese).
云南省地方志编撰委员会.1999.云南省志,卷三,地震志[M].昆明:云南人民出版社.Local Chronicles Compilation Committee of Yunnan Province.1999.Chronicles of Yunnan Province,Volume 3,Chronicles of Earthquakes[M].Yunnan People's Publishing House.Kunming(in Chinese).
叶文华,徐锡伟,汪良谋.1996.中国西部强震的地表破裂规模与震级、复发时间间隔关系的研究[J].地震地质,18(1):37—44.YE Wen-hua,XU Xi-wei,WANG Liang-mou.1996.Study on relationships of surface rupture scale and magnitude,and recurrence time of strong earthquakes in western China[J].Seismology and Geology,18(1):37—44(inChinese).
中国地震局震害防御司.1999.中国近代地震目录(公元1912年—1990年)[Z].北京:中国科学技术出版社.Earthquake Disaster Prevention Department of China Earthquake Administration.1999.Modern Earthquake Catalog inChina(1912—1990)[Z].China Science and Technology Press,Beijing(in Chinese).
Bonilla M G,Mark R K,Lienkaemper J J.1984.Statistical relations among earthquake magnitude,surface rupturelength,and surface fault displacement[J].Bulletin of Seismological Society of America,74(6):2379—2411.
Chinnery A Michael.1969.Earthquake magnitude and source parameters[J].Bulletin of Seismological Society ofAmerica,59(5):1969—1982.
Kostrov V V.1974.Seismic moment and energy of earthquakes,and seismic flow of rock[J].Physics of the SolidEarth,1:12—21.
Savage J C,BurfordR O.1973.Geodetic determination of relative plate motion in central California[J].Journal ofGeophysical Research,78(5):832—845.doi:10.1029/JB078i005p00832.
Shen Z-K,Lu J,Wang M,et al.2005.Contemporary crustal deformation around the southeast borderland of theTibetan plateau[J].Journal of Geophysical Research,110:B11409.doi:10.1029/2004JB003421.
Slemmons D B,Bodin P,Zang X.1989.Determination of earthquake size from surface faulting events[A].In:Proc.of the International Seminar on Seismic Zonation,Sponsored by State Seismological Bureau,PRC,Guangzhou,China.
Wang E,Burchfiel B C.1997.Interpretation of Cenozoic tectonics in the right-lateral accommodation zone between theAilao Shan shear zone and the eastern Himalayan syntaxis[J].International Geology Review,39(3):191—219.
Wang H,Liu M,Shen X,et al.2009.Balance of seismic moment in the Songpan-Ganze region,eastern Tibet:Implications for the 2008 great Wehchuan earthquake[J].Tectonophysics.doi:10.1016/j.tecto.2009.09.002.
Wells D L,Coppersmith K J.1994.New empirical relationships among magnitude,rupture length,rupture width,rupture area and surface displacement[J].Bulletin of Seismological Society of America,84(4):974—1002.
Williams S D P,Bock Y,Fang P,et al.2004.Error analysis of continuous GPS position time series[J].Journal ofGeophysical Research,109:B03412.doi:10.1029/2003JB002741.
①中国地震灾害防御中心,2011,中国西南怒江流域断裂活动性及其对水电梯级开发影响的综合研究。
①同375页①。
邓起东,于贵华,叶文华.1992.地震地表破裂参数与震级关系的研究[A].见:国家地震局地质研究所编活动断裂研究(2).北京:地震出版社.247—264.DENG Qi-dong,YU Gui-hua,YE Wen-hua.1992.Research on relationship between surface rupture parameters andmagnitude of earthquake[A].In:Institute of Geology,SSB(ed).Research on Active Faults(2).SeismologicaPress,Beijing.247—264(in Chinese).
国家地震局震害防御司.1995.中国历史强震目录(公元前23世纪—公元1911年)[M].北京:地震出版社Earthquake Disaster Prevention Department of China Seismological Bureau.1995.Historical Strong Earthquake Cataloin China(the 23rdCentury BC—1911 AD)[M].Seismological Press,Beijing(in Chinese).
郭增建,秦保燕.1979.震源物理[M].北京:地震出版社.104—158.GUO Zeng-jian,QIN Bao-yan.1979.Physics of Earthquake Source[M].Seismological Press,Beijing.104—158(inChinese).
黄玮琼,李文香,曹学锋.1994.中国大陆地震资料完整性研究之二:分区地震资料基本完整的起始年分布图像[J].地震学报,16(4):423—432.HUANG Wei-qiong,LI Wen-xiang,CAO Xue-feng.1994.Research on the completeness of earthquake data on theChinese mainland(Ⅱ):The regional distribution of the beginning years of basically complete earthquake data[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica,16(4):423—432(in Chinese).
李京昌.1998.滇西怒江断裂带新构造特征[J].地震地质,20(4):312—320.LI Jing-chang.1998.Neotectonic feature of the Nujiang Fault zone in western Yunnan[J].Seismology and Geology,20(4):312—320(in Chinese).
李忠华,苏有锦,蔡明军,等.1999.云南地区震源破裂长度与震级的经验关系[J].西北地震学报,21(3):331—333.LI Zhong-hua,SU You-jin,CAI Ming-jun,et al.1999.Empirical relationships between magnitude and source rupturelength in Yunnan[J].Northwestern Seismological Journal,21(3):331—333(in Chinese).
龙锋,闻学泽,徐锡伟.2006.华北地区地震活断层的震级-破裂长度、破裂面积的经验关系[J].地震地质,28(4):511—535.LONG Feng,WEN Xue-ze,XU Xi-wei.2006.Empirical relationships between magnitude and rupture length,andrupture area,for seismogenic active faults in North China[J].Seismology and Geology,28(4):511—535(inChinese).
马宏生,张国民,周龙泉,等.2008.川滇地区中小震重新定位与速度结构的联合反演研究[J].地震,28(2):29—38.MA Hong-sheng,ZHANG Guo-min,ZHOU Long-quan,et al.2008.Simultaneous inversion of small earthquakerelocation and velocity structure in Sichuan-Yunnan area[J].Earthquake,28(2):29—38(in Chinese).
申重阳,吴云,王琪,等.2002.云南地区主要断层运动模型的GPS数据反演[J].大地测量与地球动力学,22(3):46—51.SHEN Chong-yang,WU Yun,WANG Qi,et al.2002.GPS data inversion of kinematic model of main faults inYunnan[J].Journal of Geodesy and Geodynamics,22(3):46—51(in Chinese).
宋键.2011.喜马拉雅东构造结周边地区主要断裂现今运动特征与数值模拟研究[D]:[学位论文].北京:中国地震局地质研究所.SONG Jian.2011.Study on current movement characteristics and numerical simulation of the main faults aroundEastern Himalayan Syntaxis[D].Doctoral dissertation.Institute of Geology,China Earthquake Administration,Beijing(in Chinese).
唐方头,宋键,曹忠权,等.2010.最新GPS数据揭示的东构造结周边主要断裂带的运动特征[J].地球物理学报,53(9):2119—2128.doi:10.3969/j.issn.001-5733.2010.09.012.TANG Fang-tou,SONG Jian,CAO Zhong-quan,et al.2010.The movement characters of main faults around EasternHimalayan Syntaxis revealed by the latest GPS data[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics,53(9):2119—2128(inChinese).doi:10.3969/j.issn.001-5733.2010.09.012.
吴根耀.1991.中缅泰交界区的断裂及其新构造活动方式[J].第四纪研究,1:28—37.WU Gen-yao.1991.Faults in the border zone among China,Burma,and Thailand and their neotectonic active modes[J].Quaternary Sciences,1:28—37(in Chinese).
吴开统,焦远碧,吕培琴,等.1990.地震序列概论[M].北京:北京大学出版社.WU Kai-tong,JIAO Yuan-bi,LPei-qin,et al.1990.An Introduction to Earthquake Sequence[M].PekingUniversity Press,Beijing(in Chinese).
云南省地方志编撰委员会.1999.云南省志,卷三,地震志[M].昆明:云南人民出版社.Local Chronicles Compilation Committee of Yunnan Province.1999.Chronicles of Yunnan Province,Volume 3,Chronicles of Earthquakes[M].Yunnan People's Publishing House.Kunming(in Chinese).
叶文华,徐锡伟,汪良谋.1996.中国西部强震的地表破裂规模与震级、复发时间间隔关系的研究[J].地震地质,18(1):37—44.YE Wen-hua,XU Xi-wei,WANG Liang-mou.1996.Study on relationships of surface rupture scale and magnitude,and recurrence time of strong earthquakes in western China[J].Seismology and Geology,18(1):37—44(inChinese).
中国地震局震害防御司.1999.中国近代地震目录(公元1912年—1990年)[Z].北京:中国科学技术出版社.Earthquake Disaster Prevention Department of China Earthquake Administration.1999.Modern Earthquake Catalog inChina(1912—1990)[Z].China Science and Technology Press,Beijing(in Chinese).
Bonilla M G,Mark R K,Lienkaemper J J.1984.Statistical relations among earthquake magnitude,surface rupturelength,and surface fault displacement[J].Bulletin of Seismological Society of America,74(6):2379—2411.
Chinnery A Michael.1969.Earthquake magnitude and source parameters[J].Bulletin of Seismological Society ofAmerica,59(5):1969—1982.
Kostrov V V.1974.Seismic moment and energy of earthquakes,and seismic flow of rock[J].Physics of the SolidEarth,1:12—21.
Savage J C,BurfordR O.1973.Geodetic determination of relative plate motion in central California[J].Journal ofGeophysical Research,78(5):832—845.doi:10.1029/JB078i005p00832.
Shen Z-K,Lu J,Wang M,et al.2005.Contemporary crustal deformation around the southeast borderland of theTibetan plateau[J].Journal of Geophysical Research,110:B11409.doi:10.1029/2004JB003421.
Slemmons D B,Bodin P,Zang X.1989.Determination of earthquake size from surface faulting events[A].In:Proc.of the International Seminar on Seismic Zonation,Sponsored by State Seismological Bureau,PRC,Guangzhou,China.
Wang E,Burchfiel B C.1997.Interpretation of Cenozoic tectonics in the right-lateral accommodation zone between theAilao Shan shear zone and the eastern Himalayan syntaxis[J].International Geology Review,39(3):191—219.
Wang H,Liu M,Shen X,et al.2009.Balance of seismic moment in the Songpan-Ganze region,eastern Tibet:Implications for the 2008 great Wehchuan earthquake[J].Tectonophysics.doi:10.1016/j.tecto.2009.09.002.
Wells D L,Coppersmith K J.1994.New empirical relationships among magnitude,rupture length,rupture width,rupture area and surface displacement[J].Bulletin of Seismological Society of America,84(4):974—1002.
Williams S D P,Bock Y,Fang P,et al.2004.Error analysis of continuous GPS position time series[J].Journal ofGeophysical Research,109:B03412.doi:10.1029/2003JB002741.
①中国地震灾害防御中心,2011,中国西南怒江流域断裂活动性及其对水电梯级开发影响的综合研究。
①同375页①。
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