不同空间网络关联情形下中国区域经济增长的收敛检验及协调发展
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摘要
本文基于1980—2015年中国省际面板数据,分别从经济发展、资本积累、商品贸易、金融发展四个维度,利用社会网络分析方法揭示中国区域经济增长空间关联网络结构,并以不同的空间关联网络作为权重,通过动态空间面板回归模型对经典β收敛进行检验。研究发现:传递性与交互性对于空间关联网络的形成存在显著作用,区域经济增长存在普遍的相关依赖关系,但网络关联性仍有较大提升空间;中国区域经济增长在不同的空间网络权重下均呈现收敛,但收敛速度不尽相同;区域经济增长在1991年前后表现出两种不同的收敛特征,1991年前区域经济分化趋势明显,1991年后区域经济β收敛特征显著;同时,区域经济增长存在一定程度的俱乐部收敛趋势。因此,在高质量发展阶段,必须高度重视空间关联网络对于区域经济增长的作用,以实现区域经济协调发展。
This paper used panel data of 28 provinces in mainland China from 1980 to 2015 to examine the structural characteristics of spatial correlation networks in China's regional economic growth from four aspects:economic development,capital accumulation,commodity trade and financial development,and to test the classical β convergence by dynamic spatial panel data regression model under the weights of different spatial networks. We found that transitiveness and interactivity have significant effects on the formation of spatial association networks,and that there is a general spatial dependence on regional economic growth,though there is still room for greater improvement in network association;global convergence exists under the weight of spatial network. However,under different spatial network weights,the speed of regional economic convergence is not the same;the convergence characteristics render differences before and after1991. Before 1991,regional economic differentiation tended to be obvious. After 1991,the regional economic β convergence characteristics are significant. There is a certain degree of club convergence trend of regional economy growth. Therefore,in the stage of high quality development,we must attach great importance to the role of space-related networks in order to achieve coordinated regional economy development.
This paper used panel data of 28 provinces in mainland China from 1980 to 2015 to examine the structural characteristics of spatial correlation networks in China's regional economic growth from four aspects:economic development,capital accumulation,commodity trade and financial development,and to test the classical β convergence by dynamic spatial panel data regression model under the weights of different spatial networks. We found that transitiveness and interactivity have significant effects on the formation of spatial association networks,and that there is a general spatial dependence on regional economic growth,though there is still room for greater improvement in network association;global convergence exists under the weight of spatial network. However,under different spatial network weights,the speed of regional economic convergence is not the same;the convergence characteristics render differences before and after1991. Before 1991,regional economic differentiation tended to be obvious. After 1991,the regional economic β convergence characteristics are significant. There is a certain degree of club convergence trend of regional economy growth. Therefore,in the stage of high quality development,we must attach great importance to the role of space-related networks in order to achieve coordinated regional economy development.
引文
[1]蔡昉,都阳.中国地区经济增长的趋同与差异--对西部开发战略的启示[J].经济研究,2010(10):30-37.
[2]董先安.浅释中国地区收入差距:1952-2002[J].经济研究,2004(9):48-59.
[3]洪国志,胡华颖,李郇.中国区域经济发展收敛的空间计量分析[J].地理学报,2010,65(12):1548-1558.
[4]侯赟慧,刘志彪,岳中刚.长三角区域经济一体化进程的社会网络分析[J].中国软科学,2009(12):90-101.
[5]李敬,陈澍,万广华,付陈梅.中国区域经济增长的空间关联及其解释--基于网络分析方法[J].经济研究,2014(11):4-16.
[6]林光平,龙志和,吴梅.我国地区经济收敛的空间计量实证分析:1978-2002年[J].经济学(季刊),2005,4(s1):71-86.
[7]林毅夫,刘明兴.中国的经济增长收敛与收入分配[J].世界经济,2003(8):3-14.
[8]刘华军,陈明华,刘传明,孙亚男.中国大宗商品价格溢出网络结构及动态交互影响[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2017(1):113-129.
[9]刘华军,何礼伟.中国省际经济增长的空间关联网络结构--基于非线性Granger因果检验方法的再考察[J].财经研究,2016(2):97-107.
[10]刘华军,刘传明,孙亚男.中国能源消费的空间关联网络结构特征及其效应研究[J].中国工业经济,2015(5):83-95.
[11]刘夏明,魏英琪,李国平.收敛还是发散?--中国区域经济发展争论的文献综述[J].经济研究,2004(7):70-81.
[12]潘文卿.中国区域经济差异与收敛[J].中国社会科学,2010(1):72-84.
[13]彭国华.中国地区收入差距、全要素生产率及其收敛分析[J].经济研究,2005(9):19-29.
[14]单豪杰.中国资本存量K的再估算:1952-2006年[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2008(10):17-31.
[15]沈坤荣,马俊.中国经济增长的“俱乐部收敛”特征及其成因研究[J].经济研究,2002(1):33-39.
[16]史修松,赵曙东.中国经济增长的地区差异及其收敛机制[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2011(1):51-62.
[17]汤炳荣,杨永春,李英杰,赵四东.中国城市经济网络结构空间特征及其复杂性分析[J].地理学报,2011,66(2):199-211.
[18]汤放华,汤慧,孙倩,汤迪莎.长江中游城市集群经济网络结构分析[J].地理学报,2013,68(10):1357-1366.
[19]吴玉鸣.中国省域经济增长趋同的空间计量经济分析[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2006,23(12):101-108.
[20]徐现祥,李郇.中国省际贸易模式:基于铁路货运的研究[J].世界经济,2012(9):41-60.
[21]张晓旭,冯宗宪.中国人均GDP的空间相关与地区收敛:1978-2003[J].经济学(季刊),2008,7(2):399-414.
[22]周亚虹,朱保华,刘俐含.中国经济收敛速度的估计[J].经济研究,2009(6):40-51.
[23]朱国忠,乔坤元,虞吉海.中国各省经济增长是否收敛?[J].经济学(季刊),2014,13(3):1171-1194.
[24]Anselin L.Lagrange Multiplier Test Diagnostics for Spatial Dependence and Spatial Heterogeneity[J].Geographical Analysis,1988,20(1):1-17.
[25]Barro R.J.,Blanchard O.J.,Hall R.E.Convergence across States and Regions[J].Brookings Papers on Economic Activity,1991(1):107-82.
[26]Barro R.J.,Sala-i-Martin X.Convergence[J].Journal of Political Economy,1992,100(2):223-51.
[27]Chen B.,Feng Y.Determinants of Economic Growth in China:Private Enterprise,Education,and Openness[J].China Economic Review,2002,11(1):1-15.
[28]Coulombe S.New Evidence of Convergence across Canadian Provinces:The Role of Urbanization[J].Regional Studies,2000,34(8):713-25.
[29]Elhorst J.P.Specification and Estimation of Spatial Panel Data Models[J].International Regional Science Review,2003,26(3):244-68.
[30]Hsiao C.Analysis of Panel Data[M].Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2015.
[31]Islam N.Growth Empirics:A Panel Data Approach[J].The Quarterly Journal of Economics,1995,110(4):1127-70.
[32]Ismail N.W.Growth and Convergence in ASEAN:A Dynamic Panel Approach[J].International Journal of Economics and Management,2008,2(1):127-40.
[33]Lee K.,Pesaran M.H.,Smith R.Growth Empirics:A Panel Data Approach-A Comment[J].The Quarterly Journal of Economics,1998,113(1):319-23.
[34]Mankiw N.G.,Romer D.,Weil D.N.A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth[J].The Quarterly Journal of Economics,1992,107(2):407-37.
[35]Paelinck J.,Klaassen L.Spatial Econometrics[M].Farnborough:Saxon House,1979.
[36]Ramajo J.,Márquez M.A.,Hewings G.J.D,Salinas M.M.Spatial Heterogeneity and Interregional Spillovers in the European Union:Do Cohesion Policies Encourage Convergence Across Regions?[J].European Economic Review,2008,52(3):551-67.
[37]Rey S.J.,Dev B.σ-Convergence in the Presence of Spatial Effects[J].Papers in Regional Science,2006,85(2):217-34.
[38]Rey S.J.,Montouri B.D.US Regional Income Convergence:A Spatial Econometric Perspective[J].Regional Studies,1999,33(2):143-56.
[39]Romer P.M.Endogenous Technological Change[J].Journal of Political Economy,1990,98(5):71-102.
[40]Sachs J.D.,Warner A.M.Economic Convergence and Economic Policies[J].Case Network Studies&Analyses,1995,65(4):900-13.
[41]Scott J.Social Network Analysis[M].London:Sage,2017.
[42]Solow R.M.A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth[J].The Quarterly Journal of Economics,1956,70(1):65-94.
[43]Ying L.G.Measuring the Spillover Effects:Some Chinese Evidence[J].Papers in Regional Science,79(1):75-89.
[44]Yu J.,Lee L.Convergence:A Spatial Dynamic Panel Data Approach[J].Global Journal of Economics,2012,1(1):1-36.
(1)鉴于整体结构特征指标在网络分析文献中广泛应用,具体计算公式在此不再赘述。
(1)感兴趣者可向作者索取直观展示图。
(1)考虑到篇幅限制,本部分仅绘制了经济发展维度下的空间关联网络,对于资本积累、商品贸易、金融发展维度下的空间关联网络,有需要的可以向作者索取。
(1)本文选择对空间关联网络的一阶零模型进行了300次模拟。
(1)根据Barro等(1991)的研究,传统经济增长收敛的研究中收敛速度约为0.02,半生命周期约为30年。
[2]董先安.浅释中国地区收入差距:1952-2002[J].经济研究,2004(9):48-59.
[3]洪国志,胡华颖,李郇.中国区域经济发展收敛的空间计量分析[J].地理学报,2010,65(12):1548-1558.
[4]侯赟慧,刘志彪,岳中刚.长三角区域经济一体化进程的社会网络分析[J].中国软科学,2009(12):90-101.
[5]李敬,陈澍,万广华,付陈梅.中国区域经济增长的空间关联及其解释--基于网络分析方法[J].经济研究,2014(11):4-16.
[6]林光平,龙志和,吴梅.我国地区经济收敛的空间计量实证分析:1978-2002年[J].经济学(季刊),2005,4(s1):71-86.
[7]林毅夫,刘明兴.中国的经济增长收敛与收入分配[J].世界经济,2003(8):3-14.
[8]刘华军,陈明华,刘传明,孙亚男.中国大宗商品价格溢出网络结构及动态交互影响[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2017(1):113-129.
[9]刘华军,何礼伟.中国省际经济增长的空间关联网络结构--基于非线性Granger因果检验方法的再考察[J].财经研究,2016(2):97-107.
[10]刘华军,刘传明,孙亚男.中国能源消费的空间关联网络结构特征及其效应研究[J].中国工业经济,2015(5):83-95.
[11]刘夏明,魏英琪,李国平.收敛还是发散?--中国区域经济发展争论的文献综述[J].经济研究,2004(7):70-81.
[12]潘文卿.中国区域经济差异与收敛[J].中国社会科学,2010(1):72-84.
[13]彭国华.中国地区收入差距、全要素生产率及其收敛分析[J].经济研究,2005(9):19-29.
[14]单豪杰.中国资本存量K的再估算:1952-2006年[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2008(10):17-31.
[15]沈坤荣,马俊.中国经济增长的“俱乐部收敛”特征及其成因研究[J].经济研究,2002(1):33-39.
[16]史修松,赵曙东.中国经济增长的地区差异及其收敛机制[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2011(1):51-62.
[17]汤炳荣,杨永春,李英杰,赵四东.中国城市经济网络结构空间特征及其复杂性分析[J].地理学报,2011,66(2):199-211.
[18]汤放华,汤慧,孙倩,汤迪莎.长江中游城市集群经济网络结构分析[J].地理学报,2013,68(10):1357-1366.
[19]吴玉鸣.中国省域经济增长趋同的空间计量经济分析[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2006,23(12):101-108.
[20]徐现祥,李郇.中国省际贸易模式:基于铁路货运的研究[J].世界经济,2012(9):41-60.
[21]张晓旭,冯宗宪.中国人均GDP的空间相关与地区收敛:1978-2003[J].经济学(季刊),2008,7(2):399-414.
[22]周亚虹,朱保华,刘俐含.中国经济收敛速度的估计[J].经济研究,2009(6):40-51.
[23]朱国忠,乔坤元,虞吉海.中国各省经济增长是否收敛?[J].经济学(季刊),2014,13(3):1171-1194.
[24]Anselin L.Lagrange Multiplier Test Diagnostics for Spatial Dependence and Spatial Heterogeneity[J].Geographical Analysis,1988,20(1):1-17.
[25]Barro R.J.,Blanchard O.J.,Hall R.E.Convergence across States and Regions[J].Brookings Papers on Economic Activity,1991(1):107-82.
[26]Barro R.J.,Sala-i-Martin X.Convergence[J].Journal of Political Economy,1992,100(2):223-51.
[27]Chen B.,Feng Y.Determinants of Economic Growth in China:Private Enterprise,Education,and Openness[J].China Economic Review,2002,11(1):1-15.
[28]Coulombe S.New Evidence of Convergence across Canadian Provinces:The Role of Urbanization[J].Regional Studies,2000,34(8):713-25.
[29]Elhorst J.P.Specification and Estimation of Spatial Panel Data Models[J].International Regional Science Review,2003,26(3):244-68.
[30]Hsiao C.Analysis of Panel Data[M].Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2015.
[31]Islam N.Growth Empirics:A Panel Data Approach[J].The Quarterly Journal of Economics,1995,110(4):1127-70.
[32]Ismail N.W.Growth and Convergence in ASEAN:A Dynamic Panel Approach[J].International Journal of Economics and Management,2008,2(1):127-40.
[33]Lee K.,Pesaran M.H.,Smith R.Growth Empirics:A Panel Data Approach-A Comment[J].The Quarterly Journal of Economics,1998,113(1):319-23.
[34]Mankiw N.G.,Romer D.,Weil D.N.A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth[J].The Quarterly Journal of Economics,1992,107(2):407-37.
[35]Paelinck J.,Klaassen L.Spatial Econometrics[M].Farnborough:Saxon House,1979.
[36]Ramajo J.,Márquez M.A.,Hewings G.J.D,Salinas M.M.Spatial Heterogeneity and Interregional Spillovers in the European Union:Do Cohesion Policies Encourage Convergence Across Regions?[J].European Economic Review,2008,52(3):551-67.
[37]Rey S.J.,Dev B.σ-Convergence in the Presence of Spatial Effects[J].Papers in Regional Science,2006,85(2):217-34.
[38]Rey S.J.,Montouri B.D.US Regional Income Convergence:A Spatial Econometric Perspective[J].Regional Studies,1999,33(2):143-56.
[39]Romer P.M.Endogenous Technological Change[J].Journal of Political Economy,1990,98(5):71-102.
[40]Sachs J.D.,Warner A.M.Economic Convergence and Economic Policies[J].Case Network Studies&Analyses,1995,65(4):900-13.
[41]Scott J.Social Network Analysis[M].London:Sage,2017.
[42]Solow R.M.A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth[J].The Quarterly Journal of Economics,1956,70(1):65-94.
[43]Ying L.G.Measuring the Spillover Effects:Some Chinese Evidence[J].Papers in Regional Science,79(1):75-89.
[44]Yu J.,Lee L.Convergence:A Spatial Dynamic Panel Data Approach[J].Global Journal of Economics,2012,1(1):1-36.
(1)鉴于整体结构特征指标在网络分析文献中广泛应用,具体计算公式在此不再赘述。
(1)感兴趣者可向作者索取直观展示图。
(1)考虑到篇幅限制,本部分仅绘制了经济发展维度下的空间关联网络,对于资本积累、商品贸易、金融发展维度下的空间关联网络,有需要的可以向作者索取。
(1)本文选择对空间关联网络的一阶零模型进行了300次模拟。
(1)根据Barro等(1991)的研究,传统经济增长收敛的研究中收敛速度约为0.02,半生命周期约为30年。
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