中国青贮玉米产业发展时空演变及动因
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摘要
为促进粮改饲政策试点更好地开展,推动农业种植结构由"粮食+经济"二元结构向"粮食+经济+饲草料"三元结构协调发展,以青贮玉米(Zea mays)产业为例,综合运用产业集中率、重心模型、探索性空间数据分析等模型和方法,分析其时空演变特征及演变动因。结果表明,2001–2016年中国青贮玉米产业集聚程度非常高,在时间上表现为明显的三阶段特征;产业重心位置相对稳定,产业发展在空间上一直处于不平衡的状态;从全局来看,青贮玉米的生产存在正的空间自相关性,在空间上呈集聚状态;从局域来看,存在显著的"北高南低"集聚规律性,且局域正向集聚过程有不断加强的趋势。青贮玉米产业时空格局演变受自然资源条件影响较小,而政策、经济效益、市场以及农业科技等成为影响其时空格局演变的主要驱动因素。青贮玉米产业的发展及其时空演变与奶业发展密切相关。
To promote the better implementation of the ‘Changing Grain to Forage ’ pilot program, the coordinated development of the agricultural planting structure from the ‘food + economy’ dual structure into the ‘food + economy +forage’ ternary structure is needed. In this study, the silage corn industry in China was used as an example of this development process, and comprehensive models and methods, such as industrial concentration assessment, center of gravity models, and exploratory spatial data analysis, were used to analyze the characteristics of its spatial and temporal evolution and the driving factors behind this. The results showed that the degree of agglomeration of China's silage corn industry became very high from 2001 to 2016, with an obvious three-staged pattern in its development through time. The industrial center of gravity was found to be relatively stable, and industrial development has occurred in a spatially unbalanced manner.From a global perspective, there a positive spatial autocorrelation was found in the production of silage corn, which is thus spatially agglomerated. At the local scale, there is was significant regularity, in which production was agglomerated densely in the north and sparsely in the south, and the positive agglomeration of production tended to increase at the local scale. The spatiotemporal patterns in the evolution of the silage corn industry in China have been less strongly affected by natural resource conditions, while policies, economic benefits, market fluctuations, and agricultural science and technology have been the main drivers affecting the spatiotemporal evolution of the industry. The development of the silage corn industry in China and its spatial and temporal evolution has also been closely related to the development of the dairy industry.
To promote the better implementation of the ‘Changing Grain to Forage ’ pilot program, the coordinated development of the agricultural planting structure from the ‘food + economy’ dual structure into the ‘food + economy +forage’ ternary structure is needed. In this study, the silage corn industry in China was used as an example of this development process, and comprehensive models and methods, such as industrial concentration assessment, center of gravity models, and exploratory spatial data analysis, were used to analyze the characteristics of its spatial and temporal evolution and the driving factors behind this. The results showed that the degree of agglomeration of China's silage corn industry became very high from 2001 to 2016, with an obvious three-staged pattern in its development through time. The industrial center of gravity was found to be relatively stable, and industrial development has occurred in a spatially unbalanced manner.From a global perspective, there a positive spatial autocorrelation was found in the production of silage corn, which is thus spatially agglomerated. At the local scale, there is was significant regularity, in which production was agglomerated densely in the north and sparsely in the south, and the positive agglomeration of production tended to increase at the local scale. The spatiotemporal patterns in the evolution of the silage corn industry in China have been less strongly affected by natural resource conditions, while policies, economic benefits, market fluctuations, and agricultural science and technology have been the main drivers affecting the spatiotemporal evolution of the industry. The development of the silage corn industry in China and its spatial and temporal evolution has also been closely related to the development of the dairy industry.
引文
[1]黄季焜.农业供给侧结构性改革的关键问题:政府职能和市场作用.中国农村经济,2018(2):2-14.HUANG J K.Key issues on supply-side structural reform in agriculture:Government functions and market roles.Chinese Rural Economy,2018(2):2-14.
[2]BELL J F,OFFER N W,ROBERTS D J.The effect on dairy cow performance of adding molasses sugar beet feed to immature forage maize at ensiling or prior to feeding.Animal Feed Science and Technology,2006,137(1):84-92.
[3]CARL H,PEDER N,KONSTANTINOS Z,KJELL M,MICHAEL M,ELISABET N.Effects of maize crop maturity at harvest and dietary inclusion rate of maize silage on feed intake and performance in lambs fed high-concentrate diets.Livestock Science,2015,178:52-60.
[4]ZARALIS K,NORGAARD P,HELANDER C,MURPHY M,WEISBJERG M R,NADEAU E.Effects of maize maturity at harvest and dietary proportion of maize silage on intake and performance of growing/finishing bulls.Livestock Science,2014,168:89-93.
[5]CELEBI S Z,DEMIR S,CELEBI R,DURAK E D,YILMAZ I H.The effect of Arbuscular Mycorrhizal Fungi(AMF)applications on the silage maize(Zea mays L.)yield in different irrigation regimes.European Journal of Soil Biology,2010,46(5):302-305.
[6]SCHR?DER J J,NEETESON J J,WITHAGEN C M,NOIJB I G.Effects of N application on agronomic and environmental parameters in silage maize production on sandy soils.Field Crops Research,1998,58(1):55-67.
[7]ROWGHANI E,ZAMIRI M J.The effects of a microbial inoculant and formic acid as silage additives on chemical composition,ruminal degradability and nutrient digestibility of corn silage in sheep.Iranian Journal of Veterinary Research,2009,10(27):42-54.
[8]ABDELHAD L O,SANTINI F J.Corn silage versus grain sorghum silage as a supplement to growing steers grazing high quality pastures:Effects on performance and ruminal fermentation.Animal Feed Science&Technology,2006,127(1):33-43.
[9]SANTOS G T D,MODESTO E C,SOUZA E D,SOUZA N E.Replacement of corn silage with cassava foliage silage in the diet of lactating dairy cows:Milk composition and economic evaluation.Brazilian Archives of Biology&Technology,2009,52(spe):291-296.
[10]JACOPO B,ALESSANDRAl F.The environmental burdens of maize silage production:Influence of different ensiling techniques.Animal Feed Science and Technology,2015,204:88-98.
[11]GáLIK R,BODO?,STARO?OVáL.Using modern diagnostic methods for technological discipline assessment of maize silage.Acta Technologica Agriculturae,2016,19(2):39-42.
[12]赵久然,杨国航,孙世贤,张春原,潘金豹.国家青贮玉米品种区域试验现状及发展趋势:国家玉米品种区试系列介绍Ⅳ.作物杂志,2008(1):85-89.ZHAO J R,YANG G H,SUN S X,ZHANG C Y,PAN J B.The status and development trend of national silage maize variety regional experiments:Introduction to the national maize variety regional trial series IV.Crops,2008(1):85-89.
[13]梁艾东.全株青贮玉米饲喂比例对肉羊增重效果和瘤胃发酵的影响.沈阳:沈阳农业大学硕士论文,2017.LIANG A D.Effects of feeding proportion of whole silage corn on weight gain result and ruminal fermentation of sheep.Master Thesis.Shenyang:Shenyang Agricultural University,2017.
[14]马磊,朱玲玲,王忠美,戎郁萍.氮复合肥种类及施氮量对坝上地区青贮玉米产量和品质的影响.草业学报,2013,22(6):53-59.MA L,ZHU L L,WANG Z M,RONG Y P.Yield and quality of silage corn(Zea mays)as affected by type and quantity of Nfertilization.Acta Prataculturae Sinica,2013,22(6):53-59.
[15]段震宇,王婷,桑志勤,王友德,陈树宾,郭斌,李玉梅,张小伟.不同栽培模式下青贮玉米的农艺性状.草业科学,2018,35(4):891-899.DUAN Z Y,WANG T,SANG Z Q,WANG Y D,CHEN S B,GUO B,LI Y M,ZHANG X W.Effect of different planting patterns on agronomic traits of silage maize.Pratacultural Science,2018,35(4):891-899.
[16]王仪明,雷艳芳,魏臻武,韩正晟.不同轮作模式对青贮玉米产量、品质及土壤肥力的影响.核农学报,2017,31(9):1803-1810.WANG Y M,LEI Y F,WEI Z W,HAN Z S.Effects of different rotation modes on yield,quality of silage corn,and soil fertility.Journal of Nuclear Agricultural Sciences,2017,31(9):1803-1810.
[17]徐生阳,闵旭东,云颖,玉柱.乳杆菌对有氧暴露过程中不同品种全株玉米青贮品质的影响.草业科学,2019,36(1):252-260.XU S Y,MIN X D,YUN Y,YU Z.Effect of Lactobacillus brevis on the quality of whole plant corn silages during aerobic exposure.Pratacultural Science,2019,36(1):252-260.
[18]陈丽娟,张正友,蔡晓剑,张云华.青海地区产共轭亚油酸乳酸菌分离及其对青贮全株玉米品质的影响.草业科学,2019,36(1):243-251.CHEN L J,ZHANG Z Y,CAI X J,ZHANG Y H.Isolation of Lactobacillus producing conjugated linoleie acid in Qinghai area and its effect on quality of whole corn silage.Pratacultural Science,2019,36(1):243-251.
[19]杨海涛,田东祥,赵久然,李瑞媛,魏有胜.基于产量和经济效益分析的青贮玉米:京科青贮516的利用与模式研究.中国农学通报,2009,25(21):152-155.YANG H T,TIAN D X,ZHAO J R,LI R Y,WEI Y S.Researches on utilization mode of maize silage Jingke516 based on yield and economic benefit analysis.Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin,2009,25(21):152-155.
[20]石自忠,王明利,胡向东,崔姹.我国牧草种植成本收益变化与比较.草业科学,2017,34(4):902-911.SHI Z Z,WANG M L,HU X D,CUI C.Variation and comparison of forages'cost-benefits in China.Pratacultural Science,2017,34(4):902-911.
[21]倪印锋,王明利.中国牧草产业地理集聚特征及影响因素.经济地理,2018,38(6):142-150.NI Y F,WANG M L.The characteristics and influencing factors of geographical agglomeration of forage industry in China.Economic Geography,2018,38(6):142-150.
[22]王国刚,王明利,杨春.中国畜牧业地理集聚特征及其演化机制.自然资源学报,2014,29(12):2137-2146.WANG G G,WANG M L,YANG C.Characteristics and mechanism of animal husbandry’s geographical agglomeration in China.Journal of Natural Resources,2014,29(12):2137-2146.
[23]丁存振,肖海峰.中国肉羊产业时空演变的特征分析.华中农业大学学报(社会科学版),2018(1):58-64,158-159.DING C Z,XIAO H F.Analysis on the characteristics of time and space evolution of Chinese meat sheep industry.Journal of Huazhong Agricultural University(Social Sciences Edition),2018(1):58-64,158-159.
[24]徐维祥,杨蕾,刘程军,张凌燕,李露.长江经济带创新产出的时空演化特征及其成因.地理科学,2017,37(4):502-511.XU W X,YANG L,LIU C J,ZHANG L Y,LI L.Temporal-spatial evolution characteristics and its causes of innovation output in the Yangtze River economic belt.Scientia Geographica Sinica,2017,37(4):502-511.
[25]李二玲,庞安超,朱纪广.中国农业地理集聚格局演化及其机制.地理研究,2012,31(5):885-898.LI E L,PANG A C,ZHU J G.Analysis of the evolution path and mechanism of China’s agricultural agglomeration and geographic pattern.Geographical Research,2012,31(5):885-898.
[26]李在军,管卫华,蒲英霞,李慧,马颖忆.山东省旅游经济的时空演变格局探究.经济地理,2013,33(7):176-181.LI Z J,GUAN W H,PU Y X,LI H,MA Y Y.Exploration on the tourism economy spatio-temporal pattern in Shandong Province.Economic Geography,2013,33(7):176-181.
[2]BELL J F,OFFER N W,ROBERTS D J.The effect on dairy cow performance of adding molasses sugar beet feed to immature forage maize at ensiling or prior to feeding.Animal Feed Science and Technology,2006,137(1):84-92.
[3]CARL H,PEDER N,KONSTANTINOS Z,KJELL M,MICHAEL M,ELISABET N.Effects of maize crop maturity at harvest and dietary inclusion rate of maize silage on feed intake and performance in lambs fed high-concentrate diets.Livestock Science,2015,178:52-60.
[4]ZARALIS K,NORGAARD P,HELANDER C,MURPHY M,WEISBJERG M R,NADEAU E.Effects of maize maturity at harvest and dietary proportion of maize silage on intake and performance of growing/finishing bulls.Livestock Science,2014,168:89-93.
[5]CELEBI S Z,DEMIR S,CELEBI R,DURAK E D,YILMAZ I H.The effect of Arbuscular Mycorrhizal Fungi(AMF)applications on the silage maize(Zea mays L.)yield in different irrigation regimes.European Journal of Soil Biology,2010,46(5):302-305.
[6]SCHR?DER J J,NEETESON J J,WITHAGEN C M,NOIJB I G.Effects of N application on agronomic and environmental parameters in silage maize production on sandy soils.Field Crops Research,1998,58(1):55-67.
[7]ROWGHANI E,ZAMIRI M J.The effects of a microbial inoculant and formic acid as silage additives on chemical composition,ruminal degradability and nutrient digestibility of corn silage in sheep.Iranian Journal of Veterinary Research,2009,10(27):42-54.
[8]ABDELHAD L O,SANTINI F J.Corn silage versus grain sorghum silage as a supplement to growing steers grazing high quality pastures:Effects on performance and ruminal fermentation.Animal Feed Science&Technology,2006,127(1):33-43.
[9]SANTOS G T D,MODESTO E C,SOUZA E D,SOUZA N E.Replacement of corn silage with cassava foliage silage in the diet of lactating dairy cows:Milk composition and economic evaluation.Brazilian Archives of Biology&Technology,2009,52(spe):291-296.
[10]JACOPO B,ALESSANDRAl F.The environmental burdens of maize silage production:Influence of different ensiling techniques.Animal Feed Science and Technology,2015,204:88-98.
[11]GáLIK R,BODO?,STARO?OVáL.Using modern diagnostic methods for technological discipline assessment of maize silage.Acta Technologica Agriculturae,2016,19(2):39-42.
[12]赵久然,杨国航,孙世贤,张春原,潘金豹.国家青贮玉米品种区域试验现状及发展趋势:国家玉米品种区试系列介绍Ⅳ.作物杂志,2008(1):85-89.ZHAO J R,YANG G H,SUN S X,ZHANG C Y,PAN J B.The status and development trend of national silage maize variety regional experiments:Introduction to the national maize variety regional trial series IV.Crops,2008(1):85-89.
[13]梁艾东.全株青贮玉米饲喂比例对肉羊增重效果和瘤胃发酵的影响.沈阳:沈阳农业大学硕士论文,2017.LIANG A D.Effects of feeding proportion of whole silage corn on weight gain result and ruminal fermentation of sheep.Master Thesis.Shenyang:Shenyang Agricultural University,2017.
[14]马磊,朱玲玲,王忠美,戎郁萍.氮复合肥种类及施氮量对坝上地区青贮玉米产量和品质的影响.草业学报,2013,22(6):53-59.MA L,ZHU L L,WANG Z M,RONG Y P.Yield and quality of silage corn(Zea mays)as affected by type and quantity of Nfertilization.Acta Prataculturae Sinica,2013,22(6):53-59.
[15]段震宇,王婷,桑志勤,王友德,陈树宾,郭斌,李玉梅,张小伟.不同栽培模式下青贮玉米的农艺性状.草业科学,2018,35(4):891-899.DUAN Z Y,WANG T,SANG Z Q,WANG Y D,CHEN S B,GUO B,LI Y M,ZHANG X W.Effect of different planting patterns on agronomic traits of silage maize.Pratacultural Science,2018,35(4):891-899.
[16]王仪明,雷艳芳,魏臻武,韩正晟.不同轮作模式对青贮玉米产量、品质及土壤肥力的影响.核农学报,2017,31(9):1803-1810.WANG Y M,LEI Y F,WEI Z W,HAN Z S.Effects of different rotation modes on yield,quality of silage corn,and soil fertility.Journal of Nuclear Agricultural Sciences,2017,31(9):1803-1810.
[17]徐生阳,闵旭东,云颖,玉柱.乳杆菌对有氧暴露过程中不同品种全株玉米青贮品质的影响.草业科学,2019,36(1):252-260.XU S Y,MIN X D,YUN Y,YU Z.Effect of Lactobacillus brevis on the quality of whole plant corn silages during aerobic exposure.Pratacultural Science,2019,36(1):252-260.
[18]陈丽娟,张正友,蔡晓剑,张云华.青海地区产共轭亚油酸乳酸菌分离及其对青贮全株玉米品质的影响.草业科学,2019,36(1):243-251.CHEN L J,ZHANG Z Y,CAI X J,ZHANG Y H.Isolation of Lactobacillus producing conjugated linoleie acid in Qinghai area and its effect on quality of whole corn silage.Pratacultural Science,2019,36(1):243-251.
[19]杨海涛,田东祥,赵久然,李瑞媛,魏有胜.基于产量和经济效益分析的青贮玉米:京科青贮516的利用与模式研究.中国农学通报,2009,25(21):152-155.YANG H T,TIAN D X,ZHAO J R,LI R Y,WEI Y S.Researches on utilization mode of maize silage Jingke516 based on yield and economic benefit analysis.Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin,2009,25(21):152-155.
[20]石自忠,王明利,胡向东,崔姹.我国牧草种植成本收益变化与比较.草业科学,2017,34(4):902-911.SHI Z Z,WANG M L,HU X D,CUI C.Variation and comparison of forages'cost-benefits in China.Pratacultural Science,2017,34(4):902-911.
[21]倪印锋,王明利.中国牧草产业地理集聚特征及影响因素.经济地理,2018,38(6):142-150.NI Y F,WANG M L.The characteristics and influencing factors of geographical agglomeration of forage industry in China.Economic Geography,2018,38(6):142-150.
[22]王国刚,王明利,杨春.中国畜牧业地理集聚特征及其演化机制.自然资源学报,2014,29(12):2137-2146.WANG G G,WANG M L,YANG C.Characteristics and mechanism of animal husbandry’s geographical agglomeration in China.Journal of Natural Resources,2014,29(12):2137-2146.
[23]丁存振,肖海峰.中国肉羊产业时空演变的特征分析.华中农业大学学报(社会科学版),2018(1):58-64,158-159.DING C Z,XIAO H F.Analysis on the characteristics of time and space evolution of Chinese meat sheep industry.Journal of Huazhong Agricultural University(Social Sciences Edition),2018(1):58-64,158-159.
[24]徐维祥,杨蕾,刘程军,张凌燕,李露.长江经济带创新产出的时空演化特征及其成因.地理科学,2017,37(4):502-511.XU W X,YANG L,LIU C J,ZHANG L Y,LI L.Temporal-spatial evolution characteristics and its causes of innovation output in the Yangtze River economic belt.Scientia Geographica Sinica,2017,37(4):502-511.
[25]李二玲,庞安超,朱纪广.中国农业地理集聚格局演化及其机制.地理研究,2012,31(5):885-898.LI E L,PANG A C,ZHU J G.Analysis of the evolution path and mechanism of China’s agricultural agglomeration and geographic pattern.Geographical Research,2012,31(5):885-898.
[26]李在军,管卫华,蒲英霞,李慧,马颖忆.山东省旅游经济的时空演变格局探究.经济地理,2013,33(7):176-181.LI Z J,GUAN W H,PU Y X,LI H,MA Y Y.Exploration on the tourism economy spatio-temporal pattern in Shandong Province.Economic Geography,2013,33(7):176-181.
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