极端暴雨情景模拟下黄河中游区现状下垫面来沙量分析
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摘要
黄河防洪,难在沙多。未来黄河的来沙情势事关治黄方略确定、流域水沙资源配置、重大水利工程布局与运用,是近年治黄的热点问题。2000年以来,黄土高原生态环境大幅改善,黄河来沙锐减,在此背景下,需要客观认识极端暴雨情景下的黄河最大可能来沙量,为黄河防洪减淤提供决策依据。该文以沙量贡献率约91%的黄河中游河口镇至潼关区间为研究对象,以下垫面产输沙环境大体稳定、且暴雨偏多的2010-2018年作为现状下垫面,设计了"假定1933年暴雨重现"和"假定2010-2018年各支流的最大暴雨年在同一年发生"等两种极端暴雨情景,分别采用各支流最大暴雨年实测沙量相加和基于现状年各支流降雨-产沙关系的水文学方法,分析了研究区现状下垫面在极端暴雨情景下的可能来沙量。1933年是黄土高原近百年实际发生过的最大暴雨年;通过暴雨移植而成的"合成年"暴雨量级仅次于1933年,但输沙量和产沙量相当于实测值;两个暴雨情景的大暴雨落区不同。研究结果表明:在现状下垫面背景下,如果2010-2018年各支流的最大暴雨年出现在同一年,研究区的年输沙量将达6.2亿t,相应的区域产沙量为9.9亿t;基于现状下垫面的降雨-产沙关系,如果1933年大暴雨在研究区重现,研究区的年输沙量将达9.4亿t,相应的区域产沙量为12.4亿t。该文采用的两种极端暴雨情景,只能算得上是近一百年内的最大降雨,且未考虑坝库水毁排沙和极端暴雨出现在连续干旱年之后等不利情况,否则来沙量将更大。由此可见,即便是黄土高原林草植被已经大幅改善,且大量梯田和淤地坝建成投运,黄河防洪和骨干工程调度运用仍要做好应对大沙的准备。
The flood control of the Yellow River Basin has been very difficult due to the heavy sedimentation of riverbed.So it is the very important to predict and evaluate the future situation of the sediment yield of the Yellow River Basin for deciding strategy of Yellow River governance and development,water resources allocation,plan and operation of the major water conservancy projects.Since 2000,the ecological environment of the Loess Plateau has been greatly improved and the sediment discharge of the Yellow River has decreased significantly.In this background,it is necessary to identify objectively the maximum possible sediment discharge of the Yellow River under the extreme rainstorm,so as to provide decision-making references for flood control and sedimentation reduction of the Yellow River.In this paper,the region between Hekouzhen and Tongguan in the middle reaches of the Yellow River basin was selected as the study area which contributes about 91% of the sediment discharge of the Yellow River Basin,and the underlying surface during 2010 to 2018 was selected as the current underlying surface because the corresponding environment situation of the Loess Plateau in the terms of sediment produce and transportation tend to be stable after experiencing rapid improvement of vegetation for years,and also because there were more rainstorms.Two extreme rainstorm scenarios were designed,one assumes that the rainstorms in 1933 have recurred,and other assumes that the maximum rainstorm in each tributary from 2010 to 2018 have occurred in the same year.Respectively using the method of summing up the annual measured sediment of the maximal rainstorm year of 2010-2018 in each tributary and using the hydrological method based on the current relationship between rainfall and sediment yield,the possible amount of sediment yield of the current underlying surface under extreme rainstorm in the study area was analyzed.In 1933,the Loess Plateau experienced the heaviest rainfall in the past 100 years.The magnitude of synthetic rainstorm was second only to the one in 1933.The difference of the two extreme rainstorm scenarios was the rainstorm area.The results revealed that if the maximum rainstorm of each tributary from 2010 to 2018 occurred in the same year under the current underlying surface condition,the sediment discharge poured into Yellow River in the study area would reach 620 million tons,and the corresponding regional sediment yield would be 990 million tons.If the rainfall scenario in 1933 reappeared,the annual sediment discharge would reach 940 million tons,based on the relationship between rainfall and sediment discharge under the current surface condition in study area,and the corresponding sediment yield would be 1.24 billion tons.The two extreme rainstorm scenarios used in this paper can only be regarded as the maximum rainfall in the past 100 years(not in hundreds of years),and also the calculation process took no account of the unfavorable conditions such as sediment releasing in case of check dams damage,or the situation which the extreme rainstorm occurs after successive years of drought.Otherwise,the sediment discharge would be even larger.Therefore,even if the forest and grass vegetation in the Loess Plateau has been greatly improved,and a large number of terraces and check dams have been built and put into operation,the Yellow River flood control and regulation of key reservoirs still needs to be prepared for large amount of sediment.
The flood control of the Yellow River Basin has been very difficult due to the heavy sedimentation of riverbed.So it is the very important to predict and evaluate the future situation of the sediment yield of the Yellow River Basin for deciding strategy of Yellow River governance and development,water resources allocation,plan and operation of the major water conservancy projects.Since 2000,the ecological environment of the Loess Plateau has been greatly improved and the sediment discharge of the Yellow River has decreased significantly.In this background,it is necessary to identify objectively the maximum possible sediment discharge of the Yellow River under the extreme rainstorm,so as to provide decision-making references for flood control and sedimentation reduction of the Yellow River.In this paper,the region between Hekouzhen and Tongguan in the middle reaches of the Yellow River basin was selected as the study area which contributes about 91% of the sediment discharge of the Yellow River Basin,and the underlying surface during 2010 to 2018 was selected as the current underlying surface because the corresponding environment situation of the Loess Plateau in the terms of sediment produce and transportation tend to be stable after experiencing rapid improvement of vegetation for years,and also because there were more rainstorms.Two extreme rainstorm scenarios were designed,one assumes that the rainstorms in 1933 have recurred,and other assumes that the maximum rainstorm in each tributary from 2010 to 2018 have occurred in the same year.Respectively using the method of summing up the annual measured sediment of the maximal rainstorm year of 2010-2018 in each tributary and using the hydrological method based on the current relationship between rainfall and sediment yield,the possible amount of sediment yield of the current underlying surface under extreme rainstorm in the study area was analyzed.In 1933,the Loess Plateau experienced the heaviest rainfall in the past 100 years.The magnitude of synthetic rainstorm was second only to the one in 1933.The difference of the two extreme rainstorm scenarios was the rainstorm area.The results revealed that if the maximum rainstorm of each tributary from 2010 to 2018 occurred in the same year under the current underlying surface condition,the sediment discharge poured into Yellow River in the study area would reach 620 million tons,and the corresponding regional sediment yield would be 990 million tons.If the rainfall scenario in 1933 reappeared,the annual sediment discharge would reach 940 million tons,based on the relationship between rainfall and sediment discharge under the current surface condition in study area,and the corresponding sediment yield would be 1.24 billion tons.The two extreme rainstorm scenarios used in this paper can only be regarded as the maximum rainfall in the past 100 years(not in hundreds of years),and also the calculation process took no account of the unfavorable conditions such as sediment releasing in case of check dams damage,or the situation which the extreme rainstorm occurs after successive years of drought.Otherwise,the sediment discharge would be even larger.Therefore,even if the forest and grass vegetation in the Loess Plateau has been greatly improved,and a large number of terraces and check dams have been built and put into operation,the Yellow River flood control and regulation of key reservoirs still needs to be prepared for large amount of sediment.
引文
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[16]刘晓燕,杨胜天,李晓宇,等.黄河主要来沙区林草植被变化及对产流产沙的影响机制[J].中国科学,2015,45(10):1052-1059.Liu Xiaoyan,Yang Shengtian,Li Xiaoyu,et al.The current vegetation restoration effect and its influence mechanism on the sediment and runoff yield in severe erosion area of Yellow River Basin[J].Sci Sin Tech,2015,45(10):1052-1059.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[17]林炳章,兰平,张叶晖,等.可能最大降水估算研究综述[J].水利学报,2018,49(1):92-102.Lin Bingzhang,Lan Ping,Zhang Yehui,et al.Review of probable maximum precipitation estimation[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2018,49(1):92-102.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[18]王国安.可能最大暴雨和洪水计算原理与方法[M].北京:中国水利水电出版社,1999.
[19]郑似苹.黄河中游1933年8月特大暴雨等雨深线图的绘制[J].人民黄河,1981,3(5):28-32.Zheng Siping.Contour map of heavy rainfall in August 1933in the middle reaches of the Yellow River[J].Yellow River,1981,3(5):28-32.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[20]史辅成,易元俊,高治定.1933年8月黄河中游洪水[J].水文,1984,4(6):55-58.Shi Fucheng,Yi Yuanjun,Gao Zhiding.Flood in the middle reaches of the Yellow River in August 1933[J].Journal of China Hydrology,1984,4(6):55-58.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[21]史辅成,易元俊,高治定.黄河流域暴雨洪水特性[J].水文,1990(5):50-53.Shi Fucheng,Yi Yuanjun,Gao Zhiding.Characteristics of storm flood in the Yellow River Basin[J].Journal of China Hydrology,1990(5):50-53.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[22]黄河水利委员会水文科.一九三三年和一九四二年黄河陕州最大洪水的初步研究[J].新黄河,1952(7):33-40.Department of Hydrology,Yellow River Conservancy Commission.Preliminary study on the largest flood in Shanzhou station of the Yellow River in 1933 and 1942[J].New Yellow River,1952(7):33-40.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[23]黄河水利委员会.黄河流域防洪规划[M].郑州:黄河水利出版社,2008.
[24]黄河水利委员会勘测规划设计院.1843年8月黄河中游洪水[J].水文,1985,5(3):57-63.Yellow River Engineering Consulting Institute.The flood of the middle yellow river in 1843[J].Hydrology,1985,5(3):57-63.(in Chinese with English abstract)
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[2]刘晓燕,杨胜天,王富贵,等.黄土高原现状梯田和林草植被的减沙作用分析[J].水利学报,2014,45(11):1293-1300.Liu Xiaoyan,Yang Shengtian,Wang Fugue,et al.Analysis on sediment yield reduced by current terrace and shrubs-herbs-arbor vegetation in the Loess Plateau[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2014,45(11):1293-1300.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[3]姚文艺,冉大川,陈江南.黄河流域近期水沙变化及其趋势预测[J].水科学进展,2013,24(5):607-616.Yao Wenyi,Ran Dachuan,Chen Jiangnan.Recent changes in runoff and sediment regimes and future projections in the Yellow River basin[J].Advances in Water Science,2013,24(5):607-616.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[4]胡春宏.黄河水沙变化与治理方略研究[J].水力发电学报,2016,35(10):1-11.Hu Chunhong.Changes in runoff and sediment loads of the Yellow River and its management strategies[J].Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering,2016,35(10):1-11.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[5]陈瑞东,温永福,高鹏,等.极端降水条件下延河水沙特征对比分析及其影响因素[J].生态学报,2018,38(6):1920-1929.Chen Ruidong,Wen Yongfu,Gao Peng,et al.Comparative analysis of flow and sediment characteristics of the Yanhe River under extreme rainfall conditions and research on influence factors[J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,2018,38(6):1920-1929.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[6]焦菊英,王志杰,魏艳红,等.延河流域极端暴雨下侵蚀产沙特征野外观测分析[J].农业工程学报,2017,33(13):159-167.Jiao Juying,Wang Zhijie,Wei Yanhong,et al.Characteristics of erosion sediment yield with extreme rainstorms in Yanhe watershed based on field measurement[J].Transaction of Chinese Society of Agriculture Engineering,2017,33(13):159-167.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[7]冉大川,齐斌,肖培青,等.佳芦河流域特大暴雨洪水对下垫面治理的响应[J].水土保持研究,2015,22(6):7-13.Ran Dachuan,Qi Bin,Xiao Peiqing,et al.Response of extraordinary rainstorm and flood to the harnessing for underlying surface in Jialu River Basin[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2015,22(6):7-13.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[8]李庆祥,彭嘉栋,沈艳.1900-2009年中国均一化逐月降水数据集研制[J].地理学报,2012,67(3):301-311.Li Qingxiang,Peng Jiadong,Shen Yan.Development of homogenized monthly precipitation dataset in China during1900-2009[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2012,67(3):301-311.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[9]中华人民共和国水利部水文局.黄河流域水文资料(第3册,第4册)[M].2010-2018.
[10]田勇,马静,李勇.黄河河口镇-潼关区间水库近年拦沙量调查与分析[J].人民黄河,2014,36(7):13-15.Tian Yong,Ma Jing,Li Yong.Intercepted sediment amount by the reservoirs in the Region from Hekouzhen to Tongguan of the Yellow River Basin[J].Yellow River,2014,36(7):13-15.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[11]刘晓燕,高云飞,王富贵.黄土高原仍有拦沙能力的淤地坝数量及分布[J].人民黄河,2017,39(4):1-6.Liu Xiaoyan,Gao Yunfei,Wang Fugui.Quantity and distribution of warping dams that still have sediment retaining ability in the Loess Plateau[J].Yellow River,2017,39(4):1-6.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[12]高云飞,郭玉涛,刘晓燕,等.陕北黄河中游淤地坝拦沙功能失效的判断标准研究[J].地理学报,2014,69(1):73-79.Gao Yunfei,Guo Yutao,Liu Xiaoyan,et al.Failure criteria of the warping dams on sediment interception in the Middle Yellow River in northern Shaanxi[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2014,69(1):73-79.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[13]沈斌,房世波,余卫国.NDVI与气候因子关系在不同时间尺度上的结果差异[J].遥感学报,2016,20(3):481-490.Shen Bin,Fang Shibo,Yu Weiguo.Different correlations between NDVI and meteorological factors at temporal-time scales[J].Journal of Remote Sensing,2016,20(3):481-490.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[14]信忠保,许炯心,郑伟.气候变化和人类活动对黄土高原植被覆盖变化的影响[J].中国科学D辑:地球科学,2007,37(11):1504-1514.Xin Zhongbao,Xu Jiongxin,Zheng Wei.Impacts of climate change and human activities on vegetation cover change in the loess plateau[J].Science in China(Series D:Earth Sciences),2007,37(11):1504-1514.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[15]张文辉,刘国彬.黄土高原植被生态恢复评价、问题与对策[J].林业科学,2007,43(1):102-106.Zhang Wenhui,Liu Guobin.Review on vegetation restoration in loess plateau[J].Scientia Silvae Sinicae,2007,43(1):102-106.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[16]刘晓燕,杨胜天,李晓宇,等.黄河主要来沙区林草植被变化及对产流产沙的影响机制[J].中国科学,2015,45(10):1052-1059.Liu Xiaoyan,Yang Shengtian,Li Xiaoyu,et al.The current vegetation restoration effect and its influence mechanism on the sediment and runoff yield in severe erosion area of Yellow River Basin[J].Sci Sin Tech,2015,45(10):1052-1059.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[17]林炳章,兰平,张叶晖,等.可能最大降水估算研究综述[J].水利学报,2018,49(1):92-102.Lin Bingzhang,Lan Ping,Zhang Yehui,et al.Review of probable maximum precipitation estimation[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2018,49(1):92-102.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[18]王国安.可能最大暴雨和洪水计算原理与方法[M].北京:中国水利水电出版社,1999.
[19]郑似苹.黄河中游1933年8月特大暴雨等雨深线图的绘制[J].人民黄河,1981,3(5):28-32.Zheng Siping.Contour map of heavy rainfall in August 1933in the middle reaches of the Yellow River[J].Yellow River,1981,3(5):28-32.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[20]史辅成,易元俊,高治定.1933年8月黄河中游洪水[J].水文,1984,4(6):55-58.Shi Fucheng,Yi Yuanjun,Gao Zhiding.Flood in the middle reaches of the Yellow River in August 1933[J].Journal of China Hydrology,1984,4(6):55-58.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[21]史辅成,易元俊,高治定.黄河流域暴雨洪水特性[J].水文,1990(5):50-53.Shi Fucheng,Yi Yuanjun,Gao Zhiding.Characteristics of storm flood in the Yellow River Basin[J].Journal of China Hydrology,1990(5):50-53.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[22]黄河水利委员会水文科.一九三三年和一九四二年黄河陕州最大洪水的初步研究[J].新黄河,1952(7):33-40.Department of Hydrology,Yellow River Conservancy Commission.Preliminary study on the largest flood in Shanzhou station of the Yellow River in 1933 and 1942[J].New Yellow River,1952(7):33-40.(in Chinese with English abstract)
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[24]黄河水利委员会勘测规划设计院.1843年8月黄河中游洪水[J].水文,1985,5(3):57-63.Yellow River Engineering Consulting Institute.The flood of the middle yellow river in 1843[J].Hydrology,1985,5(3):57-63.(in Chinese with English abstract)
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