电压暂降损失风险规避机制与保险方案研究
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摘要
半导体、平板显示器生产厂家等敏感用户对电压暂降、短时电压中断等事件型电能质量扰动非常敏感,面临巨大损失风险,因此研究用户损失风险规避机制和解决方案是重要课题。首先,在对某高新技术园区内5家敏感用户经历的电压暂降、导致的损失及其原因进行调查统计;其次,分析与用户损失风险事件相关各方的权力、义务和利益诉求,提出由地方政府、电力部门、用户和第三方保险机构不同程度参与的双边参与和多方参与的风险规避机制;再次,研究用户损失风险事件的特点和可保性条件,根据可保性条件不满足程度,在多方参与机制下,设计一套保险方案,并对保险算法进行详细研究;最后,对5家敏感用户进行实证分析,结果证明,该文提出的风险规避机制和保险方案具有可行性和合理性。
The semiconductor and flat-screen manufactures are very sensitive to event type disturbances of power quality such as voltage sags and short time interruptions since it leads to a large economic losses risk. Under this background, this paper studies the Loss Risk Evading Mechanism and proposes an insurance scheme caused by Voltage Sags. Firstly, the voltage sag events of the five sensitive customers is investigated in a high-tech park, and the loss and causes are then analyzed; Secondly, the powers, obligations and interests of all parties involved in the loss events is analyzed and a bilateral risk-averse mechanism is proposed involving multiple participants including local governments, power department, customers and third-party insurance institutions. After analyzing the characteristics and insurability conditions of customer loss risk event, a multi-participation insurance scheme is designed, and the insurance algorithm is studied in detail. Finally, an empirical analysis of 5 sensitive customers is conducted. The feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed mechanism and insurance scheme are proven.
The semiconductor and flat-screen manufactures are very sensitive to event type disturbances of power quality such as voltage sags and short time interruptions since it leads to a large economic losses risk. Under this background, this paper studies the Loss Risk Evading Mechanism and proposes an insurance scheme caused by Voltage Sags. Firstly, the voltage sag events of the five sensitive customers is investigated in a high-tech park, and the loss and causes are then analyzed; Secondly, the powers, obligations and interests of all parties involved in the loss events is analyzed and a bilateral risk-averse mechanism is proposed involving multiple participants including local governments, power department, customers and third-party insurance institutions. After analyzing the characteristics and insurability conditions of customer loss risk event, a multi-participation insurance scheme is designed, and the insurance algorithm is studied in detail. Finally, an empirical analysis of 5 sensitive customers is conducted. The feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed mechanism and insurance scheme are proven.
引文
[1]刘旭娜,肖先勇,汪颖.电压暂降严重程度及其测度、不确定性评估方法[J].中国电机工程学报,2014,34(4):644-658.LIU Xu-na,XIAO Xian-yong,WANG Ying.Voltage sag severity and its measure and uncertainty evaluation[J].Proceeding of the CSEE,2014,34(4):644-658.
[2]Koner P,Ledwich G.SRAT-distribution voltage sags and reliability assessment tool[J].IEEE Transactions on Power Delivery,2004,19(2):738-744.
[3]Xiangning X,Shun T,Tianshu B,et al.Study on distribution reliability considering voltage sags and acceptable indices[J].IEEE Transactions on Power Delivery,2007,22(2):1 003-1 008.
[4]肖先勇,王希宝,薛丽丽,等.敏感负荷电压凹陷敏感度的随机估计方法[J].电网技术,2007,31(22):30-33.XIAO Xian-yong,WANG Xi-bao,XUE Li-li,et al.A method to stochastically estimate voltage sag sensitivity of sensitive equipments[J].Power System Technology,2007,31(22):30-33.
[5]肖先勇,马超,杨洪耕,等.用电压暂降严重程度和最大熵评估负荷电压暂降敏感度[J].中国电机工程学报,2009,29(31):115-121.XIAO Xian-yong,MA Chao,YANG Hong-geng,et al Stochastic estimation of equipment sensitivity to voltage sag based on voltage sag severity index and maximum entropy principle[J].Proceeding of the CSEE,2009,29(31):115-121.
[6]Heine P,Pohjanheimo P,Lehtonen M,et al.A method for estimating the frequency and cost of voltage sags[J].IEEE Transactions on Power Systems,2002,17(2):290-296.
[7]Milanovic J V,Gupta C P.Probabilistic assessment of financial losses due to interruptions and voltage sags-part I:the methodology[J].IEEE Transactions on Power Delivery,2006,21(2):918-924.
[8]金广厚,李庚银,周明.风险管理机制在电能质量市场中的应用[J].电网技术,2005,29(4):70-75.JIN Guang-hou,LI Geng-yin,ZHOU Ming.Application risk management in power quality market[J].Power System Technology,2005,29(4):70-75.
[9]Chan J Y,Milanovic J V,Delahunty A.Risk-based assessment of financial losses due to voltage sags[J].IEEE Transactions on Power Delivery,2011,26(2):492-500.
[10]刘阳,肖先勇,张逸.敏感过程电压暂降响应事件及其风险的区间直觉模糊评估[J].电网技术,2015,39(5):1 398-1 404.LIU Yang,XIAO Xian-yong,ZHANG Yi.Interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy assessment on response event of voltage-sag-sensitive process and its risk[J].Power System Technology,2015,39(5):1 398-1 404.
[11]IEEE Std 1564TM-2014.IEEE guide for voltage sag indices[S].
[12]袁媛,吴丹岳,林焱,等.电压暂降评估体系研究[J].电网技术,2010,34(6):128-133.YUAN Yuan,WU Dan-yue,LIN Yan,et al.Study on assessment system of voltage sags[J].Power System Technology,2010,34(6):128-133.
[13]陈礼频,肖先勇,汪颖,等.考虑保护配合动作随机性的电压暂降频次评估[J].电网技术,2012,36(5):132-138.CHEN Li-pin,XIAO Xian-yong,WANG Ying,et al.Assessment of voltage sag frequency considering randomness of protection cooperation[J].Power System Technology,2012,36(5):132-138.
[14]刘阳,肖先勇,刘旭娜,等.考虑用户定量需求的优质电力园区DVR优化配置[J].电网技术,2015,39(3):823-828.LIU Yang,XIAO Xian-yong,LIU Xu-na,et al.Optimal configuration of DVR in premium power park considering customers’ quantitative demand[J].Power System Technology,2015,39(3):823-828.
[15]Bollen M,Stephens M,Stockman K,et al.CIGRE/CIRED/UIE JWG C4.110,Voltage dip immunity of equipment in installations[C].9th International Conference,Barcelona,2007.
[16]刘旭娜,肖先勇,刘阳,等.工业过程电压暂降风险等级层次化多级模糊综合评估[J].电网技术,2014,38(7):1 984-1 988.LIU Xu-na,XIAO Xian-yong,LIU Yang,et al.Hierarchical multi-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation on risk level of voltage sag during industrial process[J].Power System Technology,2014,38(7):1 984-1 988.
[17]Zhang Y,Milanovic J V.Global voltage sag mitigation with FACTS-based devices[J].IEEE Transactions on Power Delivery,2010,25(4):2 842-2 850.
[18]Yasir M,Kazemi S,Lehtonen M,et al.Optimal selection of voltage sag mitigation solution based on event method[C].IEEE Electric Power Quality &Supply Reliability Conference,Tallinn,2012.
[19]徐育福,蔡金锭,李天友.基于正弦函数模型的电压暂降检测算法[J].电力科学与技术学报,2008,23(2):36-40.XU Yu-fu,CAI Jing-ding,LI Tian-you.Detection algorithm of voltage sag based on sinusoidal model[J].Journal of Electric Power Science and Technology,2008,23(2):36-40.
[20]张逸,马愿谦,吴丹岳,等.引入第三方保险机构的电压暂降风险规避机制研究[J].电力科学与技术学报,2016,31(4):11-17.ZHANG Yi,MA Yuan-qian,WU Dan-yue,et al.Study on risk aversion mechanism of voltage sag introduced in a third party insurance institution[J].Journal of Electric Power Science and Technology,2016,31(4):11-17.
[21]DL/T 1412-2015.优质电力园区供电技术规范[S].
[22]Zhang X,Xu Y h.Analysis of voltage sag source location based on wavelet-multiresolution method[C].2010 Asia-Pacific Power and Energy Engineering Conference,Chengdu,China,2010.
[23]Beaulieu G,Bollen M H.J,Malgarotti S,et al.Power quality indices and objectives ongoing activities in CIGRE WG 36-07[C].Proceedings of the IEEE Power Engineering Society Transmission and Distribution Conference,Chicago,IL,USA,2002.
[24]陈海涛,钟庆,张尧.敏感设备电压暂降免疫度的仿真和分析[J].电力科学与技术学报,2013,28(3):65-70.CHEN Hai-tao,ZHONG Qing,ZHANG Yao.Simulation and analysis on the immunity degree of voltage sag for sensitive equipment[J].Journal of Electric Power Science and Technology,2013,28(3):65-70.
[25]Borch K.Equilibrium in a reinsurance market[J].Econometrica,1962,30:424-444.
[26]钟明.最优再保险理论与实证研究[M].上海:上海财经大学出版社,2014.
[27]龚日朝,颜元,刘玲.巨灾保险模式及保费厘定方法研究[J].南华大学学报:自然科学版,2011,25(2):37-44.GONG Ri-zhao,YAN Yuan,LIU Ling.Catastrophe insurance model and its method of determining premiums[J] .Journal of University of South China:Science and Technology,2011,25(2):37-44.
[28]傅惠民,岳晓蕊.多元混合数据回归分析方法[J].航空动力学报,2011,26(1):173-177.FU Hui-min,YUE Xiao-rui.Multiple regression analysis method for mixed data[J].Journal of Aerospace Power,2011,26(1):173-177.
[2]Koner P,Ledwich G.SRAT-distribution voltage sags and reliability assessment tool[J].IEEE Transactions on Power Delivery,2004,19(2):738-744.
[3]Xiangning X,Shun T,Tianshu B,et al.Study on distribution reliability considering voltage sags and acceptable indices[J].IEEE Transactions on Power Delivery,2007,22(2):1 003-1 008.
[4]肖先勇,王希宝,薛丽丽,等.敏感负荷电压凹陷敏感度的随机估计方法[J].电网技术,2007,31(22):30-33.XIAO Xian-yong,WANG Xi-bao,XUE Li-li,et al.A method to stochastically estimate voltage sag sensitivity of sensitive equipments[J].Power System Technology,2007,31(22):30-33.
[5]肖先勇,马超,杨洪耕,等.用电压暂降严重程度和最大熵评估负荷电压暂降敏感度[J].中国电机工程学报,2009,29(31):115-121.XIAO Xian-yong,MA Chao,YANG Hong-geng,et al Stochastic estimation of equipment sensitivity to voltage sag based on voltage sag severity index and maximum entropy principle[J].Proceeding of the CSEE,2009,29(31):115-121.
[6]Heine P,Pohjanheimo P,Lehtonen M,et al.A method for estimating the frequency and cost of voltage sags[J].IEEE Transactions on Power Systems,2002,17(2):290-296.
[7]Milanovic J V,Gupta C P.Probabilistic assessment of financial losses due to interruptions and voltage sags-part I:the methodology[J].IEEE Transactions on Power Delivery,2006,21(2):918-924.
[8]金广厚,李庚银,周明.风险管理机制在电能质量市场中的应用[J].电网技术,2005,29(4):70-75.JIN Guang-hou,LI Geng-yin,ZHOU Ming.Application risk management in power quality market[J].Power System Technology,2005,29(4):70-75.
[9]Chan J Y,Milanovic J V,Delahunty A.Risk-based assessment of financial losses due to voltage sags[J].IEEE Transactions on Power Delivery,2011,26(2):492-500.
[10]刘阳,肖先勇,张逸.敏感过程电压暂降响应事件及其风险的区间直觉模糊评估[J].电网技术,2015,39(5):1 398-1 404.LIU Yang,XIAO Xian-yong,ZHANG Yi.Interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy assessment on response event of voltage-sag-sensitive process and its risk[J].Power System Technology,2015,39(5):1 398-1 404.
[11]IEEE Std 1564TM-2014.IEEE guide for voltage sag indices[S].
[12]袁媛,吴丹岳,林焱,等.电压暂降评估体系研究[J].电网技术,2010,34(6):128-133.YUAN Yuan,WU Dan-yue,LIN Yan,et al.Study on assessment system of voltage sags[J].Power System Technology,2010,34(6):128-133.
[13]陈礼频,肖先勇,汪颖,等.考虑保护配合动作随机性的电压暂降频次评估[J].电网技术,2012,36(5):132-138.CHEN Li-pin,XIAO Xian-yong,WANG Ying,et al.Assessment of voltage sag frequency considering randomness of protection cooperation[J].Power System Technology,2012,36(5):132-138.
[14]刘阳,肖先勇,刘旭娜,等.考虑用户定量需求的优质电力园区DVR优化配置[J].电网技术,2015,39(3):823-828.LIU Yang,XIAO Xian-yong,LIU Xu-na,et al.Optimal configuration of DVR in premium power park considering customers’ quantitative demand[J].Power System Technology,2015,39(3):823-828.
[15]Bollen M,Stephens M,Stockman K,et al.CIGRE/CIRED/UIE JWG C4.110,Voltage dip immunity of equipment in installations[C].9th International Conference,Barcelona,2007.
[16]刘旭娜,肖先勇,刘阳,等.工业过程电压暂降风险等级层次化多级模糊综合评估[J].电网技术,2014,38(7):1 984-1 988.LIU Xu-na,XIAO Xian-yong,LIU Yang,et al.Hierarchical multi-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation on risk level of voltage sag during industrial process[J].Power System Technology,2014,38(7):1 984-1 988.
[17]Zhang Y,Milanovic J V.Global voltage sag mitigation with FACTS-based devices[J].IEEE Transactions on Power Delivery,2010,25(4):2 842-2 850.
[18]Yasir M,Kazemi S,Lehtonen M,et al.Optimal selection of voltage sag mitigation solution based on event method[C].IEEE Electric Power Quality &Supply Reliability Conference,Tallinn,2012.
[19]徐育福,蔡金锭,李天友.基于正弦函数模型的电压暂降检测算法[J].电力科学与技术学报,2008,23(2):36-40.XU Yu-fu,CAI Jing-ding,LI Tian-you.Detection algorithm of voltage sag based on sinusoidal model[J].Journal of Electric Power Science and Technology,2008,23(2):36-40.
[20]张逸,马愿谦,吴丹岳,等.引入第三方保险机构的电压暂降风险规避机制研究[J].电力科学与技术学报,2016,31(4):11-17.ZHANG Yi,MA Yuan-qian,WU Dan-yue,et al.Study on risk aversion mechanism of voltage sag introduced in a third party insurance institution[J].Journal of Electric Power Science and Technology,2016,31(4):11-17.
[21]DL/T 1412-2015.优质电力园区供电技术规范[S].
[22]Zhang X,Xu Y h.Analysis of voltage sag source location based on wavelet-multiresolution method[C].2010 Asia-Pacific Power and Energy Engineering Conference,Chengdu,China,2010.
[23]Beaulieu G,Bollen M H.J,Malgarotti S,et al.Power quality indices and objectives ongoing activities in CIGRE WG 36-07[C].Proceedings of the IEEE Power Engineering Society Transmission and Distribution Conference,Chicago,IL,USA,2002.
[24]陈海涛,钟庆,张尧.敏感设备电压暂降免疫度的仿真和分析[J].电力科学与技术学报,2013,28(3):65-70.CHEN Hai-tao,ZHONG Qing,ZHANG Yao.Simulation and analysis on the immunity degree of voltage sag for sensitive equipment[J].Journal of Electric Power Science and Technology,2013,28(3):65-70.
[25]Borch K.Equilibrium in a reinsurance market[J].Econometrica,1962,30:424-444.
[26]钟明.最优再保险理论与实证研究[M].上海:上海财经大学出版社,2014.
[27]龚日朝,颜元,刘玲.巨灾保险模式及保费厘定方法研究[J].南华大学学报:自然科学版,2011,25(2):37-44.GONG Ri-zhao,YAN Yuan,LIU Ling.Catastrophe insurance model and its method of determining premiums[J] .Journal of University of South China:Science and Technology,2011,25(2):37-44.
[28]傅惠民,岳晓蕊.多元混合数据回归分析方法[J].航空动力学报,2011,26(1):173-177.FU Hui-min,YUE Xiao-rui.Multiple regression analysis method for mixed data[J].Journal of Aerospace Power,2011,26(1):173-177.
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