短期地震预测准确性的定量评价方法
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摘要
预测效果的科学评价是预测学科必须要解决的问题,对地震预测效果的评价一般分为两种,一种是对单次预测成败的评判,另一种是对方法或手段多次预测效果的统计评分。本文提出了针对单次有震预测是否准确的定量评价方法,即地震预测准确性A值评分法。针对我国地震预测现状,本文约定了准确性评分由预测与实际地震的对应情况(简称"对应度")和时、空、强预测窗口的精确程度(简称"精确度")综合决定,同时,还给出了对应度的计算方法和精确度的评价标准。通过对四川省地震局2013年2月上报的短期预测意见进行试算,结果表明该方法具有可行性,可用于短期地震预测意见统一管理的准确性评价。
Scientific evaluation of prediction effect is a problem that must be solved in prediction discipline. There are two kinds of evaluation of earthquake prediction effect,one is the evaluation of single prediction,the other is the statistical evaluation of multiple prediction effects of a method. This paper presents a quantitative evaluation method for the accuracy of single earthquake prediction,which is called accuracy score method(abbreviated as "A score"). In view of the present situation of earthquake prediction in China,this paper stipulates that the accuracy score is determined by the corresponding situation between prediction and actual earthquake(abbreviated as "correspondence score") and the exactitude of time,space and strong prediction window(abbreviated as"exactitude score"). This paper also shows the calculation method of correspondence score and exactitude score. The opinions and examples of the short-term prediction reported by Sichuan Earthquake Agency in February 2013 show that this method is scientific and reasonable,and can be used for the evaluation and unified management of shortterm earthquake prediction.
Scientific evaluation of prediction effect is a problem that must be solved in prediction discipline. There are two kinds of evaluation of earthquake prediction effect,one is the evaluation of single prediction,the other is the statistical evaluation of multiple prediction effects of a method. This paper presents a quantitative evaluation method for the accuracy of single earthquake prediction,which is called accuracy score method(abbreviated as "A score"). In view of the present situation of earthquake prediction in China,this paper stipulates that the accuracy score is determined by the corresponding situation between prediction and actual earthquake(abbreviated as "correspondence score") and the exactitude of time,space and strong prediction window(abbreviated as"exactitude score"). This paper also shows the calculation method of correspondence score and exactitude score. The opinions and examples of the short-term prediction reported by Sichuan Earthquake Agency in February 2013 show that this method is scientific and reasonable,and can be used for the evaluation and unified management of shortterm earthquake prediction.
引文
蒋凡. 1978.海城地震[M].北京:地震出版社:61-63.Jiang F. 1978. Hai Cheng Earthquake[M]. Beijing:Seismological Press:61-63(in Chinese).
马宏生,刘杰,吴昊,李杰飞. 2004.基于R值评分的年度地震预报能力评价[J].地震,24(2):31–37.Ma H S,Liu J,Wu H,Li J F. 2004. Scientific evaluation of annual earthquake prediction efficiency based on R-value[J]. Earthquake,24(2):31–37(in Chinese).
石耀霖,刘杰,张国民. 2000.对我国90年代年度地震预报的评估[J].中国科学院研究生院学报,17(1):63–69.Shi Y L,Liu J,Zhang G M. 2000. The evaluation of Chinese annual earthquake prediction in the 90s[J]. Journal of Graduate School,Academia Sinica,17(1):63–69(in Chinese).
苏琴,杨永林,郑兵,王双洪,李菲菲,刘冠中. 2014. 4·20芦山7.0级地震预测思路及过程回顾[J].地震地质,36(4):1076–1093.Su Q,Yang Y L,Zheng B,Wang S H,Li F F,Liu G Z. 2014. A review of the thinking and process about prediction of Lushan M7.0 earthquake on Apr.20,2013[J]. Seismology and Geology,36(4):1076–1093(in Chinese).
许绍爕. 1989.地震预报能力评分[G]//地震预报方法实用化研究文集地震学专辑.北京:地震出版社:586-589.Xu S X. 1989. Earthquake prediction ability score[G]//Seismic Prediction Method Practical Research Collection:Seismological Album. Beijing:Seismological Press:586-589(in Chinese).
杨玉辉. 2003.现代自然辩证法原理[M].北京:人民出版社:220-221.Yang Y H. 2003. Principle of Modern Natural Dialectics[M]. Beijing:People’s Press:220-221(in Chinese).
张国民,刘杰,石耀霖. 2002.年度地震预报能力的科学评价[J].地震学报,24(5):525–532.Zhang G M,Liu J,Shi Y L. 2002. A scientific evaluation of annual earthquake prediction ability[J]. Acta Seismologica Sinica,24(5):525–532(in Chinese).
中国地震局. 1998.地震预报管理条例[S].北京:地震出版社:1-5.China Earthquake Administration. 1998. Regulations on Administration of Earthquake Dredictions[S]. Beijing:Seismological Press:1-5(in Chinese).
朱令人,朱成熹,洪时中,秦卫平,郑兴树,黄世奇. 1991.地震预报效能评价[G]//中国地震预报方法研究:实用化研究论文集.北京:地震出版社:35-45.Zhu L R,Zhu C X,Hong S Z,Qin W P,Zheng X S,Huang S Q. 1991. Earthquake prediction effectiveness evaluation[G]//China Earthquake Prediction Method Research:Practical Research Papers. Beijing:Seismological Press:35-45(in Chinese).
Aceves R L,Park S K,Straus D J. 1996. Statistical evaluation of the VAN method using the historic earthquake catalog in Greece[J]. Geophys Res Lett,23(11):1425–1428.
Geller R J. 1996. Debate on evaluation of the VAN method:Editor’s introduction[J]. Geophys Res Lett,23(11):1291–1293.
Kagan Y Y. 1996. VAN earthquake prediction:An attempt at statistical evaluation[J]. Geophys Res Lett,23(11):1315–1318.
Kagan Y Y. 1997. Statistical aspects of Parkfield earthquake sequence and Parkfield prediction experiment[J]. Tectonophysics,207 (3/4):207–219.
Keilis-Borok V I,Kossobokov V G. 1990. Premonitory activation of earthquake flow:Algorithm M8[J]. Phys Earth Planet Inter,61(1/2):73–83.
Varotsos P,Eftaxias K,Vallianatos F,Lazaridou M. 1996. Basic principles for evaluating an earthquake prediction method[J].Geophys Res Lett,23(11):1295–1298.
(1)年度趋势预测汇总组. 2012. 2013年度全国地震重点危险区汇总研究报告.
(2)年度趋势预测汇总组. 2013. 2014年度全国地震重点危险区汇总研究报告.
(3)年度趋势预测汇总组. 2014. 2015年度全国地震重点危险区汇总研究报告.
马宏生,刘杰,吴昊,李杰飞. 2004.基于R值评分的年度地震预报能力评价[J].地震,24(2):31–37.Ma H S,Liu J,Wu H,Li J F. 2004. Scientific evaluation of annual earthquake prediction efficiency based on R-value[J]. Earthquake,24(2):31–37(in Chinese).
石耀霖,刘杰,张国民. 2000.对我国90年代年度地震预报的评估[J].中国科学院研究生院学报,17(1):63–69.Shi Y L,Liu J,Zhang G M. 2000. The evaluation of Chinese annual earthquake prediction in the 90s[J]. Journal of Graduate School,Academia Sinica,17(1):63–69(in Chinese).
苏琴,杨永林,郑兵,王双洪,李菲菲,刘冠中. 2014. 4·20芦山7.0级地震预测思路及过程回顾[J].地震地质,36(4):1076–1093.Su Q,Yang Y L,Zheng B,Wang S H,Li F F,Liu G Z. 2014. A review of the thinking and process about prediction of Lushan M7.0 earthquake on Apr.20,2013[J]. Seismology and Geology,36(4):1076–1093(in Chinese).
许绍爕. 1989.地震预报能力评分[G]//地震预报方法实用化研究文集地震学专辑.北京:地震出版社:586-589.Xu S X. 1989. Earthquake prediction ability score[G]//Seismic Prediction Method Practical Research Collection:Seismological Album. Beijing:Seismological Press:586-589(in Chinese).
杨玉辉. 2003.现代自然辩证法原理[M].北京:人民出版社:220-221.Yang Y H. 2003. Principle of Modern Natural Dialectics[M]. Beijing:People’s Press:220-221(in Chinese).
张国民,刘杰,石耀霖. 2002.年度地震预报能力的科学评价[J].地震学报,24(5):525–532.Zhang G M,Liu J,Shi Y L. 2002. A scientific evaluation of annual earthquake prediction ability[J]. Acta Seismologica Sinica,24(5):525–532(in Chinese).
中国地震局. 1998.地震预报管理条例[S].北京:地震出版社:1-5.China Earthquake Administration. 1998. Regulations on Administration of Earthquake Dredictions[S]. Beijing:Seismological Press:1-5(in Chinese).
朱令人,朱成熹,洪时中,秦卫平,郑兴树,黄世奇. 1991.地震预报效能评价[G]//中国地震预报方法研究:实用化研究论文集.北京:地震出版社:35-45.Zhu L R,Zhu C X,Hong S Z,Qin W P,Zheng X S,Huang S Q. 1991. Earthquake prediction effectiveness evaluation[G]//China Earthquake Prediction Method Research:Practical Research Papers. Beijing:Seismological Press:35-45(in Chinese).
Aceves R L,Park S K,Straus D J. 1996. Statistical evaluation of the VAN method using the historic earthquake catalog in Greece[J]. Geophys Res Lett,23(11):1425–1428.
Geller R J. 1996. Debate on evaluation of the VAN method:Editor’s introduction[J]. Geophys Res Lett,23(11):1291–1293.
Kagan Y Y. 1996. VAN earthquake prediction:An attempt at statistical evaluation[J]. Geophys Res Lett,23(11):1315–1318.
Kagan Y Y. 1997. Statistical aspects of Parkfield earthquake sequence and Parkfield prediction experiment[J]. Tectonophysics,207 (3/4):207–219.
Keilis-Borok V I,Kossobokov V G. 1990. Premonitory activation of earthquake flow:Algorithm M8[J]. Phys Earth Planet Inter,61(1/2):73–83.
Varotsos P,Eftaxias K,Vallianatos F,Lazaridou M. 1996. Basic principles for evaluating an earthquake prediction method[J].Geophys Res Lett,23(11):1295–1298.
(1)年度趋势预测汇总组. 2012. 2013年度全国地震重点危险区汇总研究报告.
(2)年度趋势预测汇总组. 2013. 2014年度全国地震重点危险区汇总研究报告.
(3)年度趋势预测汇总组. 2014. 2015年度全国地震重点危险区汇总研究报告.
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