基于GPS资料研究红河断裂带现今闭锁程度与地震危险性
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摘要
基于2009～2015年中国大陆GPS水平速度场数据,采用DEFNODE负位错反演程序计算红河断裂带的断层闭锁程度和滑动亏损速率特征,并结合小震精定位结果分析该断裂带的强震危险性。结果表明,GPS水平观测值与模型值的拟合结果较好,小震分布与闭锁程度结果存在一定的相关性,红河断裂的中段北部(南涧-墨江)基本完全闭锁,断层的滑动亏损速率也相对较大,该段落具有发生较大地震的可能性;红河断裂带其余段落闭锁程度较弱,尤其是断裂带的南段,在2～5 km深度处基本由闭锁状态转化为蠕滑状态,断层的滑动亏损速率也相应很小,该段发生较大地震的可能性较小。
By using the GPS horizontal velocity field of 2009-2015 and the negative dislocation model of DEFNODE, we invert for fault locking and fault slip deficit of the Red river fault zone, and analyze the potential seismic danger, combining with the results of precision positioning of small earthquakes. The results show that the fitting results of GPS horizontal observation value and the simulated value are good, and there is also a certain correlation between the distribution of minor earthquakes and the degree of fault locking. The inversion results show that the middle section of the Red river fault is different from the south to north, and that the northern part is basically completely locked. The fault slip deficit rate is relatively large, which has the potential danger of a larger earthquake, and the degree of locking of the southern fault is much weaker. The locking degree of other sections of the Red river fault are also much weaker, and there are no strong blocking states in these sections, especially in the southern section of the fault zone. The fracture is basically transformed from the locking state to the creep state at 2-5 km depth, the fault slip deficit rate is relatively small, and the possibility of larger earthquakes in this section is much smaller.
By using the GPS horizontal velocity field of 2009-2015 and the negative dislocation model of DEFNODE, we invert for fault locking and fault slip deficit of the Red river fault zone, and analyze the potential seismic danger, combining with the results of precision positioning of small earthquakes. The results show that the fitting results of GPS horizontal observation value and the simulated value are good, and there is also a certain correlation between the distribution of minor earthquakes and the degree of fault locking. The inversion results show that the middle section of the Red river fault is different from the south to north, and that the northern part is basically completely locked. The fault slip deficit rate is relatively large, which has the potential danger of a larger earthquake, and the degree of locking of the southern fault is much weaker. The locking degree of other sections of the Red river fault are also much weaker, and there are no strong blocking states in these sections, especially in the southern section of the fault zone. The fracture is basically transformed from the locking state to the creep state at 2-5 km depth, the fault slip deficit rate is relatively small, and the possibility of larger earthquakes in this section is much smaller.
引文
[1] 向宏发,韩竹军,虢顺民,等.红河断裂带大型右旋走滑运动与伴生构造地貌变形[J].地震地质,2004,26(4):598-610(Xiang Hongfa,Han Zhujun,Guo Shunmin,et al.Large-Scale Dextral Strike-Slip Movement and Asociated Tectonic Deformation along the Red-River Fault Zone[J].Seismology and Geology,2004,26(4):598-610)
[2] 李西,冉康勇,陈立春,等.红河断裂带南段全新世地震活动证据[J].地震地质,2016,38(3):596-604(Li Xi,Ran Kangyong,Chen Lichun,et al.The Holocene Seismic Evidence on Southern Segment of the Red River Fault Zone [J].Seismology and Geology,2016,38(3):596-604)
[3] 胥颐,刘建华,刘福田,等.哀牢山-红河断裂带及其邻区的地壳上地幔结构[J].中国科学D辑:地球科学,2003,33(12):1 201-1 208(Xu Yi,Liu Jianhua,Liu Futian,et al.The Crust Upper Mantle Structure of the Ailaoshan-Red River Fault Zone and Adjacent Regions[J].Science in China Ser D:Earth Sciences,2003,33(12):1 201-1 208)
[4] 向宏发,万景林,韩竹军,等.红河断裂带大型右旋走滑运动发生时代的地质分析与FT测年[J].中国科学D辑:地球科学,2006,36(11):977-987(Xiang Hongfa,Wan Jinglin,Han Zhujun,et al.Geological Analysis and FT Dating of the Large-Scale Right-Lateral Strike-Slip Movement of the Red River Fault Zone[J].Science in China Ser D:Earth Sciences,2006,36(11):977-987)
[5] 钟大赉,Tapponnier P,吴海威,等.大型走滑断层——碰撞后陆内变形的重要形式[J].科学通报,1989,34(7):526-529(Zhong Dalai,Tapponnier P,Wu Haiwei,et al.Large-scale Strike-Slip Fault:The Major Structure of Intracontinental Deformation after the Collision [J].Chinese Science Bulletin,1989,34(7):526-529)
[6] Tapponnier P,Lacassin R,Leloup P H.The Ailaoshan-Red River Metamorphic Belt:Tertiary Left-Lateral Shear between Indochina and South China[J].Nature,1990,343(6 257):431-437
[7] Harrison T M,Chen W,Leloup P H.An Early Miocene Transitionin Deformation Region with the Red River Fault Zone,Yunnan and Its Fignificance for Indo-Asian Tectonics[J].Journal of Geophysical Research:Atmospheres,1992,97(B5):7 159-7 182
[8] 虢顺民,向宏发,计凤桔,等.红河断裂带第四纪右旋走滑与尾端拉张转换关系研究[J].地震地质,1996,18(4):301-309(Guo Shunmin,Xiang Hongfa,Ji Fengju,et al.A Study on the Relation between Quaternary Right-Lateral Slip and Tip Extension along the Honghe Fault[J].Seismology and Geology,1996,18(4):301-309)
[9] 张建国.中越红河断裂活动性研究[D].合肥:中国科学技术大学,2009(Zhang Jianguo.Research on the Activity of Red River Fault in China and Vietnam[D].Hefei:University of Science and Technology of China,2009)
[10] Replumaz A,Lacassin R,Tapponnier P,et al.Large River Offsets and Plio-Quatemary Dextral Slip Rate on the Red River Fault (Yunnan,China) [J].Journal of Geophysical Research:Solid Earth,2001,106(B1):819-836
[11] 邓起东,张培震,冉康勇,等.中国活动构造基本特征[J].中国科学D辑:地球科学,2002,32(12):1 020-1 030(Deng Qidong,Zhang Peizhen,Ran Kangyong,et al.The Tectonic Characteristics of China [J].Science in China Ser D:Earth Sciences,2002,32(12):1 020-1 030)
[12] 徐锡伟,吴熙彦,于贵华,等.中国大陆高震级地震危险区判定的地震地质学标志及其应用[J].地震地质,2017,39(2):219-275(Xu Xiwei,Wu Xiyan,Yu Guihua,et al.Seismo-Geological Signatures for Identifying M≥7.0 Earthquake Risk Areas and Their Premilimary Application in Mainland China[J].Seismology and Geology,2017,39(2):219-275)
[13] 季灵运,刘立炜,郝明.利用InSAR技术研究滇西南镇康-永德地区现今地壳形变特征[J].地震研究,2015,38(1):84-89(Ji Lingyun,Liu Liwei,Hao Ming.Crustal Deformation Characteristic of Zhenkang-Yongde Region in Southwest Yunnan Observed by InSAR Technology[J].Journal of Seismological Research,2015,38(1):84-89)
[14] 王阎昭,王恩宁,沈正康,等.基于GPS资料约束反演川滇地区主要断裂现今活动速率[J].中国科学D辑:地球科学,2008,38(5):582-597(Wang Yanzhao,Wang Enning,Shen Zhengkang,et al.GPS-Constrained Inversion of Present-Day Slip Rates along Major Faults of the Sichuan-Yunnan Region,China [J].Science in China Ser D:Earth Sciences,2008,38(5):582-597)
[15] 赵静,江在森,牛安福,等.川滇菱形块体东边界断层闭锁程度与滑动亏损动态特征研究[J].地球物理学报,2015,58(3):872-885(Zhao Jing,Jiang Zaisen,Niu Anfu,et al.Study on Dynamic Characteristics of Fault Locking and Fault Slip Deficit in the Eastern Boundary of the Sichuan-Yunnan Rhombic Block[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics,2015,58(3):872-885)
[16] 申重阳,王琪.川滇菱形块体主要边界运动模型的GPS数据反演分析[J].地球物理学报,2002,45(3):352-361(Shen Chongyang,Wang Qi.GPS Inversion of Kinematic Model of the Main Boundaries of the Rhombus Block in Sichuan and Yunnan[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics,2002,45(3):352-361)
[17] Mccaffrey R,Stein S,Freymueller J.Crustal Block Rotations and Plate Coupling[J].Plate Boundary Zones,2002,30:101-122
[18] 徐锡伟,闻学泽,郑荣章,等.川滇地区活动块体最新构造变动样式及其动力来源[J].中国科学D辑:地球科学,2003,33(增1):151-162(Xu Xiwei,Wen Xueze,Zheng Rongzhang,et al.The New Tectonic Movement Pattern and Its Dynamic Source of Active Block in Sichuan Yunnan Region[J].Science in China Ser D:Earth Sciences,2003,33(S1):151-162)
[19] 张培震,邓起东,张国民,等.中国大陆的强震活动与活动地块[J].中国科学D辑:地球科学,2003,33(增1):12-20(Zhang Peizhen,Deng Qidong,Zhang Guomin,et al.Activities of Strong Earthquakes and Tectonic Blocks in Mainland China[J].Science in China Ser D:Earth Sciences,2003,33(S1):12-20)
[20] 刘耀辉.基于GPS数据的滇中地区及邻区断裂带形变特征及地震危险性研究[D].昆明:云南师范大学,2016(Liu Yaohui.Deformation Characteristics and Seismic Risk of the Faults in Central Yunnan and Its Adjacent Area Based on GPS Data [D].Kunming:Yunnan Normal University,2016)
[21] 呼楠,韩竹军.滇东南弧形构造带现今活动性质的地震学研究[J].地震地质,2013,35(1):1-21(Hu Nan,Han Zhujun.Seismological Study on Behaviors of Present-Day Movement of Arcuate Tectonic Belt in Southeast Yunnan[J].Seismology and Geology,2013,35(1):1-21)
[22] Scholz C H.Earthquakes and Friction Laws[J].Nature,1998,391(6 662):37-42
[23] 张培震,邓启东,张竹琪,等.中国大陆的活动断裂、地震灾害及其动力过程[J].中国科学:地球科学,2013,43(10):1 607-1 620(Zhang Peizhen,Deng Qidong,Zhang Zhuqi,et al.Active Faults,Earthquake Hazard and Associated Geodynamic Processes in Continental China[J].Scientia Sinica Terrae,2013,43(10):1 607-1 620)
[24] 徐锡伟,成佳,许冲,等.青藏高原块体运动模型与地震活动主体地区讨论:鲁甸和景谷地震的启示[J].地震地质,2014,36(4):1 116-1 134(Xu Xiwei,Cheng Jia,Xu Chong,et al.Discussion on Block Kinematic Model and Future Themed Areas for Earthquake Occurrence in the Tibetan Plateau:Inspiration from the Ludian and Jinggu Earthquakes[J].Seismology and Geology,2014,36(4):1 116-1 134)
[2] 李西,冉康勇,陈立春,等.红河断裂带南段全新世地震活动证据[J].地震地质,2016,38(3):596-604(Li Xi,Ran Kangyong,Chen Lichun,et al.The Holocene Seismic Evidence on Southern Segment of the Red River Fault Zone [J].Seismology and Geology,2016,38(3):596-604)
[3] 胥颐,刘建华,刘福田,等.哀牢山-红河断裂带及其邻区的地壳上地幔结构[J].中国科学D辑:地球科学,2003,33(12):1 201-1 208(Xu Yi,Liu Jianhua,Liu Futian,et al.The Crust Upper Mantle Structure of the Ailaoshan-Red River Fault Zone and Adjacent Regions[J].Science in China Ser D:Earth Sciences,2003,33(12):1 201-1 208)
[4] 向宏发,万景林,韩竹军,等.红河断裂带大型右旋走滑运动发生时代的地质分析与FT测年[J].中国科学D辑:地球科学,2006,36(11):977-987(Xiang Hongfa,Wan Jinglin,Han Zhujun,et al.Geological Analysis and FT Dating of the Large-Scale Right-Lateral Strike-Slip Movement of the Red River Fault Zone[J].Science in China Ser D:Earth Sciences,2006,36(11):977-987)
[5] 钟大赉,Tapponnier P,吴海威,等.大型走滑断层——碰撞后陆内变形的重要形式[J].科学通报,1989,34(7):526-529(Zhong Dalai,Tapponnier P,Wu Haiwei,et al.Large-scale Strike-Slip Fault:The Major Structure of Intracontinental Deformation after the Collision [J].Chinese Science Bulletin,1989,34(7):526-529)
[6] Tapponnier P,Lacassin R,Leloup P H.The Ailaoshan-Red River Metamorphic Belt:Tertiary Left-Lateral Shear between Indochina and South China[J].Nature,1990,343(6 257):431-437
[7] Harrison T M,Chen W,Leloup P H.An Early Miocene Transitionin Deformation Region with the Red River Fault Zone,Yunnan and Its Fignificance for Indo-Asian Tectonics[J].Journal of Geophysical Research:Atmospheres,1992,97(B5):7 159-7 182
[8] 虢顺民,向宏发,计凤桔,等.红河断裂带第四纪右旋走滑与尾端拉张转换关系研究[J].地震地质,1996,18(4):301-309(Guo Shunmin,Xiang Hongfa,Ji Fengju,et al.A Study on the Relation between Quaternary Right-Lateral Slip and Tip Extension along the Honghe Fault[J].Seismology and Geology,1996,18(4):301-309)
[9] 张建国.中越红河断裂活动性研究[D].合肥:中国科学技术大学,2009(Zhang Jianguo.Research on the Activity of Red River Fault in China and Vietnam[D].Hefei:University of Science and Technology of China,2009)
[10] Replumaz A,Lacassin R,Tapponnier P,et al.Large River Offsets and Plio-Quatemary Dextral Slip Rate on the Red River Fault (Yunnan,China) [J].Journal of Geophysical Research:Solid Earth,2001,106(B1):819-836
[11] 邓起东,张培震,冉康勇,等.中国活动构造基本特征[J].中国科学D辑:地球科学,2002,32(12):1 020-1 030(Deng Qidong,Zhang Peizhen,Ran Kangyong,et al.The Tectonic Characteristics of China [J].Science in China Ser D:Earth Sciences,2002,32(12):1 020-1 030)
[12] 徐锡伟,吴熙彦,于贵华,等.中国大陆高震级地震危险区判定的地震地质学标志及其应用[J].地震地质,2017,39(2):219-275(Xu Xiwei,Wu Xiyan,Yu Guihua,et al.Seismo-Geological Signatures for Identifying M≥7.0 Earthquake Risk Areas and Their Premilimary Application in Mainland China[J].Seismology and Geology,2017,39(2):219-275)
[13] 季灵运,刘立炜,郝明.利用InSAR技术研究滇西南镇康-永德地区现今地壳形变特征[J].地震研究,2015,38(1):84-89(Ji Lingyun,Liu Liwei,Hao Ming.Crustal Deformation Characteristic of Zhenkang-Yongde Region in Southwest Yunnan Observed by InSAR Technology[J].Journal of Seismological Research,2015,38(1):84-89)
[14] 王阎昭,王恩宁,沈正康,等.基于GPS资料约束反演川滇地区主要断裂现今活动速率[J].中国科学D辑:地球科学,2008,38(5):582-597(Wang Yanzhao,Wang Enning,Shen Zhengkang,et al.GPS-Constrained Inversion of Present-Day Slip Rates along Major Faults of the Sichuan-Yunnan Region,China [J].Science in China Ser D:Earth Sciences,2008,38(5):582-597)
[15] 赵静,江在森,牛安福,等.川滇菱形块体东边界断层闭锁程度与滑动亏损动态特征研究[J].地球物理学报,2015,58(3):872-885(Zhao Jing,Jiang Zaisen,Niu Anfu,et al.Study on Dynamic Characteristics of Fault Locking and Fault Slip Deficit in the Eastern Boundary of the Sichuan-Yunnan Rhombic Block[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics,2015,58(3):872-885)
[16] 申重阳,王琪.川滇菱形块体主要边界运动模型的GPS数据反演分析[J].地球物理学报,2002,45(3):352-361(Shen Chongyang,Wang Qi.GPS Inversion of Kinematic Model of the Main Boundaries of the Rhombus Block in Sichuan and Yunnan[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics,2002,45(3):352-361)
[17] Mccaffrey R,Stein S,Freymueller J.Crustal Block Rotations and Plate Coupling[J].Plate Boundary Zones,2002,30:101-122
[18] 徐锡伟,闻学泽,郑荣章,等.川滇地区活动块体最新构造变动样式及其动力来源[J].中国科学D辑:地球科学,2003,33(增1):151-162(Xu Xiwei,Wen Xueze,Zheng Rongzhang,et al.The New Tectonic Movement Pattern and Its Dynamic Source of Active Block in Sichuan Yunnan Region[J].Science in China Ser D:Earth Sciences,2003,33(S1):151-162)
[19] 张培震,邓起东,张国民,等.中国大陆的强震活动与活动地块[J].中国科学D辑:地球科学,2003,33(增1):12-20(Zhang Peizhen,Deng Qidong,Zhang Guomin,et al.Activities of Strong Earthquakes and Tectonic Blocks in Mainland China[J].Science in China Ser D:Earth Sciences,2003,33(S1):12-20)
[20] 刘耀辉.基于GPS数据的滇中地区及邻区断裂带形变特征及地震危险性研究[D].昆明:云南师范大学,2016(Liu Yaohui.Deformation Characteristics and Seismic Risk of the Faults in Central Yunnan and Its Adjacent Area Based on GPS Data [D].Kunming:Yunnan Normal University,2016)
[21] 呼楠,韩竹军.滇东南弧形构造带现今活动性质的地震学研究[J].地震地质,2013,35(1):1-21(Hu Nan,Han Zhujun.Seismological Study on Behaviors of Present-Day Movement of Arcuate Tectonic Belt in Southeast Yunnan[J].Seismology and Geology,2013,35(1):1-21)
[22] Scholz C H.Earthquakes and Friction Laws[J].Nature,1998,391(6 662):37-42
[23] 张培震,邓启东,张竹琪,等.中国大陆的活动断裂、地震灾害及其动力过程[J].中国科学:地球科学,2013,43(10):1 607-1 620(Zhang Peizhen,Deng Qidong,Zhang Zhuqi,et al.Active Faults,Earthquake Hazard and Associated Geodynamic Processes in Continental China[J].Scientia Sinica Terrae,2013,43(10):1 607-1 620)
[24] 徐锡伟,成佳,许冲,等.青藏高原块体运动模型与地震活动主体地区讨论:鲁甸和景谷地震的启示[J].地震地质,2014,36(4):1 116-1 134(Xu Xiwei,Cheng Jia,Xu Chong,et al.Discussion on Block Kinematic Model and Future Themed Areas for Earthquake Occurrence in the Tibetan Plateau:Inspiration from the Ludian and Jinggu Earthquakes[J].Seismology and Geology,2014,36(4):1 116-1 134)
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