1920年海原特大地震诱发黄土滑坡滑距统计与预测分析
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摘要
为了分析和预测1920年海原特大地震诱发黄土滑坡滑体的最大滑动距离,利用野外现场调查获得的467处海原特大地震诱发滑坡数据,对滑坡所在地距断层距离、原始斜坡长度、原始斜坡高度和原始斜坡坡型等各项影响因素进行了统计分析,利用多元非线性回归方法,给出了最大滑动距离与各影响因素之间关系的经验公式。得到如下结论:海原特大地震诱发黄土滑坡最大滑动距离受原始斜坡高度、原始斜坡长度、断层距及斜坡坡形的影响较大;给出了海原特大地震诱发黄土滑坡最大滑动距离的统计公式;利用本文提出的统计公式筛选出不符合预测结果但值得进一步研究的12个典型滑坡。
In order to analyze and predict the maximum sliding distance of the loess landslides triggered by the 1920 Haiyuan Earthquake, 467 landslide data induced by the Haiyuan earthquake were conducted using. The influencing factors like distance from the fault site to the fault location, slope angle, slope length, slope height and slope type were statistically analyzed. Using the multiple nonlinear regression method, an empirical formula representing the relationship between the maximum sliding distance and various influencing factors was given. The following conclusions are obtained:1. The maximum sliding distance of landslide is greatly influenced by the original slope height, the original slope length, the fault distance and the slope shape.. 2. The prediction formula for the maximum sliding distance of loess landslides triggered by the 1920 Haiyuan Earthquake is given. 3. Using the prediction formula proposed in this paper, 12 typical landslides that do not meet the prediction results but have special significance and are worthy of further study are screened out.
In order to analyze and predict the maximum sliding distance of the loess landslides triggered by the 1920 Haiyuan Earthquake, 467 landslide data induced by the Haiyuan earthquake were conducted using. The influencing factors like distance from the fault site to the fault location, slope angle, slope length, slope height and slope type were statistically analyzed. Using the multiple nonlinear regression method, an empirical formula representing the relationship between the maximum sliding distance and various influencing factors was given. The following conclusions are obtained:1. The maximum sliding distance of landslide is greatly influenced by the original slope height, the original slope length, the fault distance and the slope shape.. 2. The prediction formula for the maximum sliding distance of loess landslides triggered by the 1920 Haiyuan Earthquake is given. 3. Using the prediction formula proposed in this paper, 12 typical landslides that do not meet the prediction results but have special significance and are worthy of further study are screened out.
引文
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[8] 卢育霞,石玉成,陈永明,等.地震诱发黄土滑坡的滑距估测[J].西北地震学报,2006,28(3):248-251.
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[10] 张克亮,张亚国,李同录.二维滑坡滑距预测[J].工程地质学报,2012,20(3):311-317.
[11] 雷超.黄土—泥岩型滑坡形成机制数值模拟研究[D].西安:长安大学,2014.
[12] 章健.黄土滑坡运动模式及滑距预测方法研究[D].西安:长安大学,2008.
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[14] 李骅锦,许强,何雨森,等.甘肃黑方台滑坡滑距参数的BP神经网络模型[J].水文地质工程地质,2016,43(4):141-146,152.
[15] 郭增建,谢原定,李孟銮,等.1920年12月16日的海原特大地震[J].地球物理学报,1976,19(1):42-49.
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[17] 刘百篪,张俊玲,吴建华,等.1920年12月16日海原8.5级大地震的伤亡人口再评估[J].中国地震,2003,19(4):72-85.
[18] 刘百篪,周俊喜.海原活断层上的史前大地震[J].地震地质,1985,7(4):11-21.
[19] 张兆鹏,边坡地震稳定性的数值模拟研究[D].哈尔滨:中国地震局工程力学研究所.2018.
[20] 孙萍,殷跃平,吴树仁,等.高速远程地震黄土滑坡发生机制试验研究[J].工程地质学报,2009,17(4):449-454.
[21] 邓龙胜,范文.宁夏海原8.5级地震诱发黄土滑坡的变形破坏特征及发育机理[J].灾害学,2013,28(3):30-37.
[22] 殷跃平.汶川八级地震滑坡高速远程特征分析[J].工程地质学报,2009,17(2):153-166.
[23] 胡卸文,黄润秋,施裕兵,等.唐家山滑坡堵江机制及堰塞坝溃坝模式分析[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2009,28(1):181-189.
[24] 张晓超.地震诱发石碑塬低角度黄土滑坡形成机理的试验研究[D].成都理工大学,2015.
[25] 徐敏,裴向军,张晓超.强震触发石碑塬滑坡黄土动力特性[J].成都理工大学学报(自然科学版),2014,41(4):492-498.
[26] 王谦,王峻,王兰民,等.石碑塬饱和黄土地震液化机制探讨[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2014,33(S2):4168-4173.
[27] 王家鼎,白铭学,肖树芳.强震作用下低角度黄土斜坡滑移的复合机理研究[J].岩土工程学报,2001(04):445-449.
[2] Romeo R.Seismically induced landslide displacements:A predictive model[J].Engineering Geology,2000,58(3):337-351.
[3] Sharifi Mood M.Probabilistic analysis and mapping of seismically induced landslide deformation in Oregon[J].Oregon Explorer,2013.1-20
[4] Scheidegger A E.on the prediction of the reach and velocity of catastrophic landslides[J].Rock Mechanics and Rock Engineering,1973,5(4):231-236.
[5] Heim I.R.The semantics of definite and indefinite noun phrases[D].Amherst:Univ.of Massachusetts,1982.
[6] Sassa K.Geotechnical model for the motion of landslides[C]//Proceedings of the 5
[7] 王家鼎,张倬元.地震诱发高速黄土滑坡的机理研究[J].岩土工程学报,1999,21(6):670-674.
[8] 卢育霞,石玉成,陈永明,等.地震诱发黄土滑坡的滑距估测[J].西北地震学报,2006,28(3):248-251.
[9] 张克亮.滑坡运动学模型及其应用研究[D].长安大学,2011.
[10] 张克亮,张亚国,李同录.二维滑坡滑距预测[J].工程地质学报,2012,20(3):311-317.
[11] 雷超.黄土—泥岩型滑坡形成机制数值模拟研究[D].西安:长安大学,2014.
[12] 章健.黄土滑坡运动模式及滑距预测方法研究[D].西安:长安大学,2008.
[13] 刘悦,黄强兵.一种黄土滑坡滑距预测模型[J].灾害学,2001,16(3):7-12.
[14] 李骅锦,许强,何雨森,等.甘肃黑方台滑坡滑距参数的BP神经网络模型[J].水文地质工程地质,2016,43(4):141-146,152.
[15] 郭增建,谢原定,李孟銮,等.1920年12月16日的海原特大地震[J].地球物理学报,1976,19(1):42-49.
[16] 邹谨敞,邵顺妹.海原地震滑坡及其分布特征探讨[J].内陆地震,1996,10(1):1-6.
[17] 刘百篪,张俊玲,吴建华,等.1920年12月16日海原8.5级大地震的伤亡人口再评估[J].中国地震,2003,19(4):72-85.
[18] 刘百篪,周俊喜.海原活断层上的史前大地震[J].地震地质,1985,7(4):11-21.
[19] 张兆鹏,边坡地震稳定性的数值模拟研究[D].哈尔滨:中国地震局工程力学研究所.2018.
[20] 孙萍,殷跃平,吴树仁,等.高速远程地震黄土滑坡发生机制试验研究[J].工程地质学报,2009,17(4):449-454.
[21] 邓龙胜,范文.宁夏海原8.5级地震诱发黄土滑坡的变形破坏特征及发育机理[J].灾害学,2013,28(3):30-37.
[22] 殷跃平.汶川八级地震滑坡高速远程特征分析[J].工程地质学报,2009,17(2):153-166.
[23] 胡卸文,黄润秋,施裕兵,等.唐家山滑坡堵江机制及堰塞坝溃坝模式分析[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2009,28(1):181-189.
[24] 张晓超.地震诱发石碑塬低角度黄土滑坡形成机理的试验研究[D].成都理工大学,2015.
[25] 徐敏,裴向军,张晓超.强震触发石碑塬滑坡黄土动力特性[J].成都理工大学学报(自然科学版),2014,41(4):492-498.
[26] 王谦,王峻,王兰民,等.石碑塬饱和黄土地震液化机制探讨[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2014,33(S2):4168-4173.
[27] 王家鼎,白铭学,肖树芳.强震作用下低角度黄土斜坡滑移的复合机理研究[J].岩土工程学报,2001(04):445-449.
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