4—6月江淮流域不同尺度温带气旋发展率及移动特征
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摘要
基于改进的温带气旋客观识别方法,统计分析1986—2015年4—6月不同空间尺度江淮流域温带气旋的发展率及移动特征。结果表明:1)整体气旋发展率呈先上升、后下降趋势,较大空间尺度气旋发展率呈显著上升趋势,中间尺度气旋发展率无明显变化趋势。2)较大尺度气旋源地集中在湖北、湖南交界处,中间尺度气旋源地位于安徽等江淮流域东部,各尺度气旋源地位于整层大气非绝热加热项大值区域内。3)气旋初生阶段,江淮流域存在风速切变线,淮北地区风速小于淮南地区,江淮流域上空对流层低层位势高度为负距平,中高层则为正距平,属浅薄低压系统。4)不论何种尺度气旋,均存在东移和东北移动路径,但较大尺度气旋东北移动路径的比例较大。
Based on the improved objective identification method of extratropical cyclones,this paper investigated the development rate and movement characteristics of extratropical cyclones at different scales in the Changjiang-Huaihe River Valley( CHRV) from April to June during 1986—2015.Results show that the overall cyclone development rate show s an upw ard trend first and then a dow nw ard trend,the larger spatial scale cyclone development rate show s a significant upw ard trend,and the middle scale cyclone development rate has no obvious change trend.The larger scale cyclone sources are concentrated at the junction of Hubei Province and Hunan Province.The middle scale cyclone sources are located in the eastern part of CHRV,such as Anhui Province.The sources of cyclones at different scales are located in the large value region of the non-adiabatic heating term in the w hole atmosphere.During the initial stage of cyclone,there is a w ind shear line in the CHRV.The w ind speed in the northern CHRV is smaller than that in the southern CHRV. The geopotential height anomaly is negative in the low er troposphere and positive in the middle and upper troposphere over the CHRV,w hich belongs to a shallow low pressure system. All scale cyclones have east-moving and northeast-moving paths,but the larger scale cyclones have a larger proportion of northeast-moving path.
Based on the improved objective identification method of extratropical cyclones,this paper investigated the development rate and movement characteristics of extratropical cyclones at different scales in the Changjiang-Huaihe River Valley( CHRV) from April to June during 1986—2015.Results show that the overall cyclone development rate show s an upw ard trend first and then a dow nw ard trend,the larger spatial scale cyclone development rate show s a significant upw ard trend,and the middle scale cyclone development rate has no obvious change trend.The larger scale cyclone sources are concentrated at the junction of Hubei Province and Hunan Province.The middle scale cyclone sources are located in the eastern part of CHRV,such as Anhui Province.The sources of cyclones at different scales are located in the large value region of the non-adiabatic heating term in the w hole atmosphere.During the initial stage of cyclone,there is a w ind shear line in the CHRV.The w ind speed in the northern CHRV is smaller than that in the southern CHRV. The geopotential height anomaly is negative in the low er troposphere and positive in the middle and upper troposphere over the CHRV,w hich belongs to a shallow low pressure system. All scale cyclones have east-moving and northeast-moving paths,but the larger scale cyclones have a larger proportion of northeast-moving path.
引文
蔡秀华,陈辉,曹鸿兴,等,2009.影响靖宇地区温带气旋的统计分析[J].气象,35(12):83-87.Cai X H,Chen H,Cao H X,et al.,2009.Statistics and analysis of extratropical cyclones over Jingyu area[J].Meteor Mon,35(12):83-87.(in Chinese).
陈海山,滕方达,蒋大凯,2017.1979—2013年东亚中纬度春、夏温带气旋活动特征及其与东北地区同期降水的联系[J].大气科学学报,40(4):443-452.Chen H S,Teng F D,Jiang D K,2017.Characteristics of East Asian mid-latitude extra-tropical cyclone activity in spring and summer during 1979—2013 and its linkage with concurrent rainfall in Northeast China[J].Trans Atmos Sci,40(4):443-452.(in Chinese).
韩桂荣,方乾,张菊芳,等,1998.应用线性化方法作江淮气旋发生的概率预报[J].气象科学,18(4):403-408.Han G R,Fang Q,Zhang J F,et al.,1998.Using linear method to forecast the happening probability of Jiang-huai cyclone[J].Scientia Meteorologica Sinica,18(4):403-408.(in Chinese).
黄彬,钱传海,聂高臻,等,2011.干侵入在黄河气旋爆发性发展中的作用[J].气象,37(12):1534-1543.Huang B,Qian C H,Nie G Z,et al.,2011.Dry intrusion into the March 2007 strong storm surge over Bohai Sea[J].Meteor Mon,37(12):1534-1543.(in Chinese).
黄鑫,布和朝鲁,谢作威,等,2016.春季影响中国北方地区的蒙古气旋及其背景环流[J].大气科学,40(3):489-503.Huang X,Bueh C L,Xie Z W,et al.,2016.Mongolian cyclones that influence the northern part of China in spring and their associated low-frequency background circulations [J].Chin J Atmos Sci,40(3):489-503.(in Chinese).
Hodges K I,1994.A general method for tracking analysis and its application to meteorological data[J].Mon Wea Rev,122(11):2573-2586.
侯定臣,1992.夏季江淮气旋结构的比较分析[J].气象科学,12(1):93-99.Hou D C,1992.A comparative study on the structures of summer cyclones over the Changjiang-Huaihe valley[J].Scentia Meteorologca Sinica,12 (1):93-99.(in Chinese).
江苏省气象局预报课题组,1988.江苏省重要天气分析和预报[M].北京:气象出版社.Forecast program of Jiangsu Meteorological Bureau,1988.Analysis and forecast of important weather in Jiangsu Province[M].Beijing:China Meteorological Press.(in Chinese).
苗春生,戎辰,王坚红,等,2018.春季中国东部海域气旋急流在气旋发展中的作用研究[J].大气科学学报,41(1):55-66.Miao C S,Rong C,Wang J H,2018.Research on role of cyclone jet in cyclone development in the eastern sea area of China in spring[J].Trans Atmos Sci,41(1):55-66.(in Chinese).
Murray R J,Simmonds I,1991a.A numerical scheme for tracking cyclone centres from digital data Part Ⅰ:development and operation of the scheme[J].Aust Met Mag,39:156-166.
Murray R J,Simmonds I,1991b.A numerical scheme for tracking cyclone centres from digital data Part Ⅱ:application to January and July general circulation model simulations[J].Aust Met Mag,39:167-180.
秦听,魏立新,2015.中国近海温带气旋的时空变化特征[J].海洋学报,37(1):43-52.Qin T,Wei L X,2015.The statistic and variance of cyclones entering coastal waters of China in 1979—2012[J].Acta Oceanologica Sinica,37(1):43-52.(in Chinese).
Qin Y J,Lu C H,Li L P,2017.Multi-scale cyclone activity in the Changjiang River-Huaihe River valleys during spring and its relationship with rainfall anomalies[J].Adv Atmos Sci,34(2):246-257.
孙泓川,魏建苏,李超,2015.气旋客观判别方法在两次江淮气旋过程中的应用[J].大气科学学报,38(1):46-54.Sun H C,Wei J S,Li C,2015.Application of an objective discriminating method in the processes of two Jiang-Huai cyclones[J].Trans Atmos Sci,38(1):46-54.(in Chinese).
王荣华,1963.东亚温带低气压路径[J].气象学报,33(1):15-2.Wang R H,1963.The tracks of the extra-tropical cyclones in eastern Asia[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,33(1):15-2.(in Chinese).
王新敏,江志红,翟盘茂,等,2007.蒙古气旋的气候特征及变化研究[J].气象与环境科学,30(1):35-38.Wang X M,Jiang Z H,Zhai P M,et al.,2007.Study on climatic characteristics and variation of mongolia cyclone[J].Meteor and Environ Sci,30(1):35-38.(in Chinese).
王艳玲,郭品文,2005.春季北方气旋活动的气候特征及与气温和降水的关系[J].南京气象学院学报,28(3):391-397.Wang Y L,Guo P W,2005.Climatic characteristics of northern cyclone activity in spring and their relationship to rainfall and temperature in China[J].J Nanjing Inst Meteor,28(3):391-397.(in Chinese).
王艳玲,管兆勇,金大超,等,2015.1980—2012年春末夏初江淮气旋活动的气候特征及其年际、年代际变化[J].大气科学学报,38(3):354-361.Wang Y L,Guan Z Y,Jin D C,et al.,2015.Climatic characteristics and interannual(interdecadal) variations of cyclones over Changjiang-Huaihe River Basin during late spring and early summer from 1980 to 2012[J].Trans Atmos Sci,38(3):354-361.(in Chinese).
魏建苏,刘佳颖,孙燕,等,2013.江淮气旋的气候特征分析[J].气象科学,33(2):196-201.Wei J S,Liu J Y,Sun Y,et al.,2013.Climate characteristics of Jiang-huai cyclone[J].Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,33(2):196-201.(in Chinese).
徐夏囡,焦佩金,1984.夏季江淮气旋的结构[J].大气科学,8(2):189-196.Xu X N,Jiao P J,1984.The structure of cyclone over the Changjianghuaihe river valley in summer[J].Chin J Atmos Sci,8(2):189-196.(in Chinese).
Yanai M,Esbensen S,Chu J H,1973.Determination of bulk properties of tropical cloud clusters from large-scale heat and moisture budgets[J].J Atmos Sci,30(4):611-627.
姚素香,张耀存,周天军,2003.近50 a春季东亚温带气旋活动频数的气候特征及其变化[J].南京气象学院学报,26(3):317-323.Yao S X,Zhang Y C,Zhou T J,2003.Climatic characteristics of extratropical cyclone frequency and its variations over east Asia during recent 50 years in spring[J].J Nanjing Inst Meteor,26(3):317-323.(in Chinese).
尹尽勇,曹越男,赵伟,等,2011.一次黄渤海入海气旋强烈发展的诊断分析[J].气象,37(12):1526-1533.Yin J Y,Cao Y N,Zhao W,et al.,2011.A diagnostic study of an intense developing extratropical cyclone over the Bohai and yellow Sea[J].Meteor Mon,37(12):1526-1533.(in Chinese).
张培忠,陈受钧,白岐凤,1993.东亚及西太平洋锋面气旋的统计研究[J].气象学报,51(1):44-56.Zhang P Z,Chen S J,Bai Q F,1993.A statistic study of frontal cyclones over east Asia and northwestern Pacific sector[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,51(1):44-56.(in Chinese).
张培忠,康玲,孟亚里,1997.东半球500 hPa闭合低压系统的统计分析[J].气象学报,55(1):124-128.Zhang P Z,Kang L,Meng Y L,1997.The statistical study of East Hemisphere 500 hPa closed cyclone[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,55(1):124-128.(in Chinese).
张汝秀,王蒸民,1988.江淮气旋的结构特征[J].气象科学,8(1):75-82.Zhang R X,Wang Z M,1988.The structure features of Jiang-Huai cyclone[J].Scientia Meteorologica Sinica,8(1):75-82.(in Chinese).
张尚印,1989.春季我国北方气旋的活动与降雨的关系[J].大气科学,13(2):247-251.Zhang S Y,1989.The relationship between the activities of northern cyclone and rainfall in spring in China[J].Scientia Atmospherica Sinica,13(2):247-251.(in Chinese).
张颖娴,丁一汇,李巧萍,2012a.ERA40再分析资料揭示的北半球和东亚地区温带气旋生成频率变化[J].气象,38(6):646-656.Zhang Y X,Ding Y H,Li Q P,2012a.Cyclogenesis frequency changes of extra-tropical cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere and East Asia revealed by ERA40 reanalysis data[J].Meteor Mon,38(6):646-656.(in Chinese).
张颖娴,丁一汇,张巧萍,2012b.北半球温带气旋活动和风暴路径的年代际变化[J].大气科学,36(5):913-928.Zhang Y X,Ding Y H,Li Q P,2012b.Interdecadal variations of extratropical cyclone activities and storm tracks in the Northern Hemisphere[J].J Atmos Sci,36(5):912-928.(in Chinese).
朱乾根,林锦瑞,寿绍文,等,1982.天气学原理和方法[M].北京:气象出版社:102-105.Zhu Q G,Lin J R,Shou S W,et al.,1982.Synoptic principles and methods[M].Beijing:China Meteorological Press:102-105.(in Chinese).
陈海山,滕方达,蒋大凯,2017.1979—2013年东亚中纬度春、夏温带气旋活动特征及其与东北地区同期降水的联系[J].大气科学学报,40(4):443-452.Chen H S,Teng F D,Jiang D K,2017.Characteristics of East Asian mid-latitude extra-tropical cyclone activity in spring and summer during 1979—2013 and its linkage with concurrent rainfall in Northeast China[J].Trans Atmos Sci,40(4):443-452.(in Chinese).
韩桂荣,方乾,张菊芳,等,1998.应用线性化方法作江淮气旋发生的概率预报[J].气象科学,18(4):403-408.Han G R,Fang Q,Zhang J F,et al.,1998.Using linear method to forecast the happening probability of Jiang-huai cyclone[J].Scientia Meteorologica Sinica,18(4):403-408.(in Chinese).
黄彬,钱传海,聂高臻,等,2011.干侵入在黄河气旋爆发性发展中的作用[J].气象,37(12):1534-1543.Huang B,Qian C H,Nie G Z,et al.,2011.Dry intrusion into the March 2007 strong storm surge over Bohai Sea[J].Meteor Mon,37(12):1534-1543.(in Chinese).
黄鑫,布和朝鲁,谢作威,等,2016.春季影响中国北方地区的蒙古气旋及其背景环流[J].大气科学,40(3):489-503.Huang X,Bueh C L,Xie Z W,et al.,2016.Mongolian cyclones that influence the northern part of China in spring and their associated low-frequency background circulations [J].Chin J Atmos Sci,40(3):489-503.(in Chinese).
Hodges K I,1994.A general method for tracking analysis and its application to meteorological data[J].Mon Wea Rev,122(11):2573-2586.
侯定臣,1992.夏季江淮气旋结构的比较分析[J].气象科学,12(1):93-99.Hou D C,1992.A comparative study on the structures of summer cyclones over the Changjiang-Huaihe valley[J].Scentia Meteorologca Sinica,12 (1):93-99.(in Chinese).
江苏省气象局预报课题组,1988.江苏省重要天气分析和预报[M].北京:气象出版社.Forecast program of Jiangsu Meteorological Bureau,1988.Analysis and forecast of important weather in Jiangsu Province[M].Beijing:China Meteorological Press.(in Chinese).
苗春生,戎辰,王坚红,等,2018.春季中国东部海域气旋急流在气旋发展中的作用研究[J].大气科学学报,41(1):55-66.Miao C S,Rong C,Wang J H,2018.Research on role of cyclone jet in cyclone development in the eastern sea area of China in spring[J].Trans Atmos Sci,41(1):55-66.(in Chinese).
Murray R J,Simmonds I,1991a.A numerical scheme for tracking cyclone centres from digital data Part Ⅰ:development and operation of the scheme[J].Aust Met Mag,39:156-166.
Murray R J,Simmonds I,1991b.A numerical scheme for tracking cyclone centres from digital data Part Ⅱ:application to January and July general circulation model simulations[J].Aust Met Mag,39:167-180.
秦听,魏立新,2015.中国近海温带气旋的时空变化特征[J].海洋学报,37(1):43-52.Qin T,Wei L X,2015.The statistic and variance of cyclones entering coastal waters of China in 1979—2012[J].Acta Oceanologica Sinica,37(1):43-52.(in Chinese).
Qin Y J,Lu C H,Li L P,2017.Multi-scale cyclone activity in the Changjiang River-Huaihe River valleys during spring and its relationship with rainfall anomalies[J].Adv Atmos Sci,34(2):246-257.
孙泓川,魏建苏,李超,2015.气旋客观判别方法在两次江淮气旋过程中的应用[J].大气科学学报,38(1):46-54.Sun H C,Wei J S,Li C,2015.Application of an objective discriminating method in the processes of two Jiang-Huai cyclones[J].Trans Atmos Sci,38(1):46-54.(in Chinese).
王荣华,1963.东亚温带低气压路径[J].气象学报,33(1):15-2.Wang R H,1963.The tracks of the extra-tropical cyclones in eastern Asia[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,33(1):15-2.(in Chinese).
王新敏,江志红,翟盘茂,等,2007.蒙古气旋的气候特征及变化研究[J].气象与环境科学,30(1):35-38.Wang X M,Jiang Z H,Zhai P M,et al.,2007.Study on climatic characteristics and variation of mongolia cyclone[J].Meteor and Environ Sci,30(1):35-38.(in Chinese).
王艳玲,郭品文,2005.春季北方气旋活动的气候特征及与气温和降水的关系[J].南京气象学院学报,28(3):391-397.Wang Y L,Guo P W,2005.Climatic characteristics of northern cyclone activity in spring and their relationship to rainfall and temperature in China[J].J Nanjing Inst Meteor,28(3):391-397.(in Chinese).
王艳玲,管兆勇,金大超,等,2015.1980—2012年春末夏初江淮气旋活动的气候特征及其年际、年代际变化[J].大气科学学报,38(3):354-361.Wang Y L,Guan Z Y,Jin D C,et al.,2015.Climatic characteristics and interannual(interdecadal) variations of cyclones over Changjiang-Huaihe River Basin during late spring and early summer from 1980 to 2012[J].Trans Atmos Sci,38(3):354-361.(in Chinese).
魏建苏,刘佳颖,孙燕,等,2013.江淮气旋的气候特征分析[J].气象科学,33(2):196-201.Wei J S,Liu J Y,Sun Y,et al.,2013.Climate characteristics of Jiang-huai cyclone[J].Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,33(2):196-201.(in Chinese).
徐夏囡,焦佩金,1984.夏季江淮气旋的结构[J].大气科学,8(2):189-196.Xu X N,Jiao P J,1984.The structure of cyclone over the Changjianghuaihe river valley in summer[J].Chin J Atmos Sci,8(2):189-196.(in Chinese).
Yanai M,Esbensen S,Chu J H,1973.Determination of bulk properties of tropical cloud clusters from large-scale heat and moisture budgets[J].J Atmos Sci,30(4):611-627.
姚素香,张耀存,周天军,2003.近50 a春季东亚温带气旋活动频数的气候特征及其变化[J].南京气象学院学报,26(3):317-323.Yao S X,Zhang Y C,Zhou T J,2003.Climatic characteristics of extratropical cyclone frequency and its variations over east Asia during recent 50 years in spring[J].J Nanjing Inst Meteor,26(3):317-323.(in Chinese).
尹尽勇,曹越男,赵伟,等,2011.一次黄渤海入海气旋强烈发展的诊断分析[J].气象,37(12):1526-1533.Yin J Y,Cao Y N,Zhao W,et al.,2011.A diagnostic study of an intense developing extratropical cyclone over the Bohai and yellow Sea[J].Meteor Mon,37(12):1526-1533.(in Chinese).
张培忠,陈受钧,白岐凤,1993.东亚及西太平洋锋面气旋的统计研究[J].气象学报,51(1):44-56.Zhang P Z,Chen S J,Bai Q F,1993.A statistic study of frontal cyclones over east Asia and northwestern Pacific sector[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,51(1):44-56.(in Chinese).
张培忠,康玲,孟亚里,1997.东半球500 hPa闭合低压系统的统计分析[J].气象学报,55(1):124-128.Zhang P Z,Kang L,Meng Y L,1997.The statistical study of East Hemisphere 500 hPa closed cyclone[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,55(1):124-128.(in Chinese).
张汝秀,王蒸民,1988.江淮气旋的结构特征[J].气象科学,8(1):75-82.Zhang R X,Wang Z M,1988.The structure features of Jiang-Huai cyclone[J].Scientia Meteorologica Sinica,8(1):75-82.(in Chinese).
张尚印,1989.春季我国北方气旋的活动与降雨的关系[J].大气科学,13(2):247-251.Zhang S Y,1989.The relationship between the activities of northern cyclone and rainfall in spring in China[J].Scientia Atmospherica Sinica,13(2):247-251.(in Chinese).
张颖娴,丁一汇,李巧萍,2012a.ERA40再分析资料揭示的北半球和东亚地区温带气旋生成频率变化[J].气象,38(6):646-656.Zhang Y X,Ding Y H,Li Q P,2012a.Cyclogenesis frequency changes of extra-tropical cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere and East Asia revealed by ERA40 reanalysis data[J].Meteor Mon,38(6):646-656.(in Chinese).
张颖娴,丁一汇,张巧萍,2012b.北半球温带气旋活动和风暴路径的年代际变化[J].大气科学,36(5):913-928.Zhang Y X,Ding Y H,Li Q P,2012b.Interdecadal variations of extratropical cyclone activities and storm tracks in the Northern Hemisphere[J].J Atmos Sci,36(5):912-928.(in Chinese).
朱乾根,林锦瑞,寿绍文,等,1982.天气学原理和方法[M].北京:气象出版社:102-105.Zhu Q G,Lin J R,Shou S W,et al.,1982.Synoptic principles and methods[M].Beijing:China Meteorological Press:102-105.(in Chinese).
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