华南汛期旱涝急转及其大气环流特征
|
摘要
利用国家气象信息中心提供的1960～2015年中国753站汛期(4～9月)逐日降水资料,对华南地区汛期旱涝急转现象进行了分析,定义了一个旱涝急转评价指标,分析了旱涝急转事件的特点及其大气环流特征。结果表明:华南在56年汛期中共发生了17次旱涝急转事件,发生频率由1960年代的3次下降到1970年代、1980年代的1次,后迅速增加到1990年代的4次、21世纪初的8次。将其按急转时间分为春末初夏旱转涝事件和盛夏涝转旱事件。春末初夏旱转涝事件,旱期西太平洋副热带高压主体偏南,中国东部主要受干冷高压脊控制,华南低层负涡度发展伴随着辐散、下沉运动的加强和水汽输送的减弱,降水偏少;涝期西太平洋副热带高压北抬,孟加拉湾南支槽异常偏强,华南位于副热带高压西侧和南亚高压东南侧,低层正涡度发展伴随着辐合、上升运动和水汽输送的加强,降水偏多。盛夏涝转旱事件,涝期西太平洋副热带高压主体偏西,华南处于副热带高压西北侧和南亚高压东南侧,低层水汽输送、辐合和上升运动均加强,正涡度发展,降水增多;旱期西太平洋副热带高压显著北跳,南亚高压向东向北扩展至长江中下游地区,华南为西太平洋副热带高压和高空东风急流所控制,低层水汽输送减弱,辐散和下沉运动加强,负涡度发展,干旱少雨。
Based on the daily precipitation data of the 753 Chinese stations provided by the National Meteorological Information Center, the drought-flood abrupt alternation phenomenon during the 1960-2015 flood seasons(April to September) was investigated, an evaluation index of drought-flood abrupt alternation was defined, and the atmospheric circulation characteristics of the drought-flood abrupt alternation events were studied. The results show that the droughtflood abrupt alternation events happened 17 times in southern China during the flood seasons of 1960 to 2015, and the frequency of their occurrences declined from three times in the 1960 s to once in the 1970 s and the 1980 s, and then increased rapidly to four times in the 1990 s and eight times in the early 21 st century. According to the abrupt alternation time, the events are divided into two groups: Drought-to-flood events in late spring and early summer and flood-todrought events in midsummer. During the drought period of drought-to-flood events in late spring and early summer, the location of the western Pacific subtropical high was more southerly; the eastern part of China was mainly affected by a dry and cold ridge, and the negative vorticity development in the lower-level southern China was accompanied by the strengthening of divergence and descending movement and the weakening of the water vapor transport, which caused less rainfall in southern China. During the flood period of drought-to-flood events in late spring and early summer, the western Pacific subtropical high stretched toward the north; the southern branch trough of the Bay of Bengal was abnormally stronger; southern China was located in the west side of the subtropical high and southeast side of the South Asia high; and the positive vorticity development in the lower-level southern China was accompanied by the strengthening of convergence, ascending movement, and water vapor transport, which caused more rainfall in southern China. During the flood period of drought-to-flood events in midsummer, the location of the western Pacific subtropical high was more westerly; southern China was located in the northwest side of the subtropical high and the southeast side of the South Asia high; and the positive vorticity developed in the lower-level southern China with the strengthening of convergence, ascending movement, and water vapor transport, which caused the precipitation in southern China to increase. During the drought period of drought-to-flood events in midsummer, the western Pacific subtropical high jumped significantly to the north; the South Asia high extended eastward and northward to the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River; southern China was controlled by the subtropical high and the upper east wind jets; negative vorticity developed in the lower-level southern China with the strengthening of divergence and descending movement and the weakening of the water vapor transport, which caused the precipitation in southern China to decrease.
Based on the daily precipitation data of the 753 Chinese stations provided by the National Meteorological Information Center, the drought-flood abrupt alternation phenomenon during the 1960-2015 flood seasons(April to September) was investigated, an evaluation index of drought-flood abrupt alternation was defined, and the atmospheric circulation characteristics of the drought-flood abrupt alternation events were studied. The results show that the droughtflood abrupt alternation events happened 17 times in southern China during the flood seasons of 1960 to 2015, and the frequency of their occurrences declined from three times in the 1960 s to once in the 1970 s and the 1980 s, and then increased rapidly to four times in the 1990 s and eight times in the early 21 st century. According to the abrupt alternation time, the events are divided into two groups: Drought-to-flood events in late spring and early summer and flood-todrought events in midsummer. During the drought period of drought-to-flood events in late spring and early summer, the location of the western Pacific subtropical high was more southerly; the eastern part of China was mainly affected by a dry and cold ridge, and the negative vorticity development in the lower-level southern China was accompanied by the strengthening of divergence and descending movement and the weakening of the water vapor transport, which caused less rainfall in southern China. During the flood period of drought-to-flood events in late spring and early summer, the western Pacific subtropical high stretched toward the north; the southern branch trough of the Bay of Bengal was abnormally stronger; southern China was located in the west side of the subtropical high and southeast side of the South Asia high; and the positive vorticity development in the lower-level southern China was accompanied by the strengthening of convergence, ascending movement, and water vapor transport, which caused more rainfall in southern China. During the flood period of drought-to-flood events in midsummer, the location of the western Pacific subtropical high was more westerly; southern China was located in the northwest side of the subtropical high and the southeast side of the South Asia high; and the positive vorticity developed in the lower-level southern China with the strengthening of convergence, ascending movement, and water vapor transport, which caused the precipitation in southern China to increase. During the drought period of drought-to-flood events in midsummer, the western Pacific subtropical high jumped significantly to the north; the South Asia high extended eastward and northward to the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River; southern China was controlled by the subtropical high and the upper east wind jets; negative vorticity developed in the lower-level southern China with the strengthening of divergence and descending movement and the weakening of the water vapor transport, which caused the precipitation in southern China to decrease.
引文
白婷.2014.华南夏季降水低频特征及其与大气低频振荡关系研究[D].南京信息工程大学硕士学位论文,4-5.Bai Ting.2014.Study on the low-frequency oscillation features of precipitation in summer and its relationship with atmospheric low-frequency oscillation over South China[D].M.S.thesis(in Chinese),Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology,4-5.
Cavazos T.1999.Large-scale circulation anomalies conducive to extreme precipitation events and derivation of daily rainfall in northeastern Mexico and southeastern Texas[J].J.Climate,12(5):1506-1523.doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1999)012<1506:LSCACT>2.0.CO;2.
陈汉耀.1957.1954年长江淮河流域洪水时期的环流特征[J].气象学报,28(1):1-12.Chen Hanyao.1957.Circulation characteristics during the flood period over Yangtze-Huaihe velleys in 1954[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica(in Chinese),28(1):1-12.doi:10.11676/qxxb1957.001.
程智,徐敏,罗连升,等.2012.淮河流域旱涝急转气候特征研究[J].水文,32(1):73-79.Cheng Zhi,Xu Min,Luo Liansheng,et al.2012.Climate characteristics of drought-flood abrupt change events in Huaihe River basin[J].Journal of China Hydrology(in Chinese),32(1):73-79.doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-0852.2012.01.015.
丁一汇.1994.暴雨和中尺度气象学问题[J].气象学报,52(3):274-284.Ding Yihui.1994.Some aspects of rainstorm and meso-scale meteorology[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica(in Chinese),52(3):274-284.doi:10.11676/qxxb1994.036.
丁一汇,柳俊杰,孙颖,等.2007.东亚梅雨系统的天气-气候学研究[J].大气科学,31(6):1082-1101.Ding Yihui,Liu Junjie,Sun Ying,et al.2007.A study of the synoptic-climatology of the Meiyu system in East Asia[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences(in Chinese),31(6):1082-1101.doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2007.06.05.
丁一汇.2008.中国气象灾害大典(综合卷)[M].北京:气象出版社,948pp.Ding Yihui.2008.Editorial Committee of Chinese Meteorological Disaster Records.(in Chinese)[M].Beijing:China Meteorological Press,948pp.
封国林,杨涵洧,张世轩,等.2012.2011年春末夏初长江中下游地区旱涝急转成因初探[J].大气科学,36(5):1009-1026.Feng Guolin,Yang Hanwei,Zhang Shixuan,et al.2012.A preliminary research on the reason of a sharp turn from drought to flood in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River in late spring and early summer of 2011[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences(in Chinese),36(5):1009-1026.doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2012.11220.
高辉,蒋薇,李维京.2013.近20年华南降水季节循环由双峰型向单峰型的转变[J].科学通报,58(15):1438-1443.Gao Hui,Jiang Wei,Li Weijing.2013.Transition of the annual cycle of precipitation from double-peak mode to single-peak mode in South China[J].Chinese Science Bulletin,58(22):3994-3999.doi:10.1007/s11434-013-5905-0.
何编,孙照渤,李忠贤.2012.一次华南持续性暴雨的动力诊断分析和数值模拟[J].大气科学学报,35(4):466-476.He Bian,Sun Zhaobo,Li Zhongxian.2012.Dynamic diagnosis and numerical simulation of a persistent torrential rain case in South China[J].Transactions of Atmospheric Sciences(in Chinese),35(4):466-476.doi:10.3969/j.issn.1674-7097.2012.04.010.
何慧,廖雪萍,陆虹,等.2016.华南地区1961~2014年夏季长周期旱涝急转特征[J].地理学报,71(1):130-141.He Hui,Liao Xueping,Lu Hong,et al.2016.Features of long-cycle drought-flood abrupt alternation in South China during summer in 1961-2014[J].Acta Geographica Sinica(in Chinese),71(1):130-141.doi:10.11821/dlxb201601010.
Hirschboeck K.1987.Catastrophic flooding and atmospheric circulation anomalies[M]//Mayer L,Nash D.Catastrophic Flooding.Boston,MA:Allen and Unwin.
黄嘉佑.2004.气象统计分析与预报方法[M].3版.北京:气象出版社,10-28.Huang Jiayou.2004.Meteorological Statistical Analysis and Forecast Method(in Chinese)[M].3rd ed.Beijing:China Meteorological Press,10-28.
Kalnay E,Kanamitsu M,Kistler R,et al.1996.The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project[J].Bull.Amer.Meteor.Soc.,77(3):437-472.doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1996)077<0437:TNYRP>2.0.CO;2.
李丽平,许冠宇,成丽萍,等.2012.华南后汛期极端降水特征及变化趋势[J].大气科学学报,35(5):570-577.Li Liping,Xu Guanyu,Cheng Liping,et al.2012.Characteristics of extreme precipitation and its variation trend in the post-flood of South China[J].Transactions of Atmospheric Sciences(in Chinese),35(5):570-577.doi:10.3969/j.issn.1674-7097.2012.05.007.
林爱兰,梁建茵,李春晖,等.2007.“0506”华南持续性暴雨的季风环流背景[J].水科学进展,18(3):424-432.Lin Ailan,Liang Jianyin,Li Chunhui,et al.2007.Monsoon circulation background of
‘0506’continuous rainstorm in South China[J].Advances in Water Science(in Chinese),18(3):424-432.doi:10.3321/j.issn:1001-6791.2007.03.019.
刘凤丽,黄国兵.2012.旱涝急转形成机理及城市防涝减灾体系研究进展[J].长江科学院院报,29(11):28-32.Liu Fengli,Huang Guobing.2012.Research progress in formation mechanism of urban drought-flood abrupt alternation and urban waterlog prevention system[J].Journal of Yangtze River Scientific Research Institute(in Chinese),29(11):28-32.doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-5485.2012.11.006.
Mason R B,Anderson C E.1963.The development and decay of the100-mb Summertime anticyclone over southern Asia[J].Mon.Wea.Rev.,91(1):3-12.doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1963)091<0003:TDADOT>2.3.CO;2.
McKee T B,Doesken N J,Kleist J.1993.The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales[C]//Proceedings of the 8th Conference on Applied Climatology.Anaheim,USA:American Meteorological Society,179-184.
Rasmusson E M.1967.Atmospheric water vapor transport and the water balance of North America:Part I.Characteristics of the water vapor flux field[J].Mon.Wea.Rev.,95(7):403-426.doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1967)095<0403:AWVTAT>2.3.CO;2.
沈柏竹,张世轩,杨涵洧,等.2012.2011年春夏季长江中下游地区旱涝急转特征分析[J].物理学报,61(10):109202.Shen Baizhu,Zhang Shixuan,Yang Hanwei,et al.2012.Analysis of characteristics of a sharp turn from drought to flood in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River in spring and summer in 2011[J].Acta Physica Sinica(in Chinese),61(10):109202.doi:10.7498/aps.61.109202.
陶诗言,徐淑英.1962.夏季江淮流域持久性旱涝现象的环流特征[J].气象学报,32(1):1-10.Dao S Y,Hsu S Y.1962.Some aspects of the circulation during the periods of the persistent drought and flood in Yantze and Hwai-ho valleys in summer[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica(in Chinese),32(1):1-10.doi:10.11676/qxxb1962.001.
陶诗言,朱福康.1964.夏季亚洲南部100毫巴流型的变化及其与西太平洋副热带高压进退的关系[J].气象学报,34(4):385-396.Dao S Y,Chu F K.1964.The 100-mb flow patterns in southern Asia in summer and its relation to the advance and retreat of the West Pacific subtropical anticyclone[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica(in Chinese),34(4):385-396.doi:10.11676/qxxb1964.039.
Ting M,Wang H.1997.Summertime U.S.precipitation variability and its relation to pacific sea surface temperature[J].J.Climate,10(8):1853-1873.doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1997)010<1853:SUSPVA>2.0.CO;2.
童金,徐海明.2014.长江中下游旱涝急转年多尺度低频振荡特征及其对旱涝急转的影响[J].热带气象学报,30(4):707-718.Tong Jin,Xu Haiming.2014.Effects of multi-scale low frequency oscillations on the drought-flood abrupt transition over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River[J].Journal of Tropical Meteorology(in Chinese),30(4):707-718.10.3969/j.issn.1004-4965.2014.04.011.
Trenberth K E,Guillemot C J.1996.Physical processes involved in the1988 drought and 1993 floods in North America[J].J.Climate,9(6):1288-1298.doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1996)009<1288:PPIITD>2.0.CO;2.
涂长望.1936.东亚活动中心与我国水旱灾的关系[J].气象学报,12(11):600-619.Tu Changwang.1936.Chinese floods and droughts and their relationship with the centers of action in East Asia[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica(in Chinese),12(11):600-619.doi:10.11676/qxxb1936.080.
Vogel J L,Huff F A.1978.Relation between the St.Louis Urban precipitation anomaly and synoptic weather factors[J].J.Appl.Meteor.,17(8):1141-1152.doi:10.1175/1520-0450(1978)017<1141:RBTSLU>2.0.CO;2.
王胜,田红,丁小俊,等.2009.淮河流域主汛期降水气候特征及“旱涝急转”现象[J].中国农业气象,30(1):31-34.Wang Sheng,Tian Hong,Ding Xiaojun,et al.2009.Climate characteristics of precipitation and phenomenon of drought-flood abrupt alternation during main flood season in Huaihe River basin[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology(in Chinese),30(1):31-34.doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2009.01.007.
魏凤英.2007.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M].2版.北京:气象出版社,10-28.Wei Fengying.2007.Modern Climate Statistical Diagnosis and Prediction Technology(in Chinese)[M].2nd ed.Beijing:China Meteorological Press,10-28.
吴志伟,何金海,李建平,等.2006a.长江中下游夏季旱涝并存及其异常年海气特征分析[J].大气科学,30(4):570-577.Wu Zhiwei,He Jinhai,Li Jianping,et al.2006.The summer drought-flood coexistence in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and analysis of its air-sea background feathers in anomalous years[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences(in Chinese),30(4):570-577.doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2006.04.03.
吴志伟,李建平,何金海,等.2006b.大尺度大气环流异常与长江中下游夏季长周期旱涝急转[J].科学通报,51(14):1717-1724.Wu Zhiwei,Li Jianping,He Jinhai,et al.2006.Large-scale atmospheric singularities and summer long-cycle droughts-floods abrupt alternation in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River[J].Chinese Science Bulletin,51(16):2027-2034.doi:10.1007/s11434-006-2060-x.
吴志伟,李建平,何金海,等.2007.正常季风年华南夏季“旱涝并存、旱涝急转”之气候统计特征[J].自然科学进展,17(12):1665-1671.Wu Zhiwei,Li Jianping,He Jinhai,et al.2007.The statistical characteristics of summer droughts-floods coexistence and abrupt alternation of southern China in normal monsoon years[J].Progress in Natural Science(in Chinese),17(12):1665-1671.doi:10.3321/j.issn:1002-008x.2007.12.009.
徐敏,丁小俊,罗连升,等.2013.淮河流域夏季旱涝急转的低频环流成因[J].气象学报,71(1):86-95.Xu Min,Ding Xiaojun,Luo Liansheng,et al.2013.A possible cause of the low frequency circulation of summertime drought-flood abrupt alternation over the Huaihe River basin[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica(in Chinese),71(1):86-95.doi:10.11676/qxxb2013.007.
Yang S Y,Wu B Y,Zhang R H,et al.2013.Relationship between an abrupt drought-flood transition over mid-low reaches of the Yangtze River in 2011 and the intraseasonal oscillation over mid-high latitudes of East Asia[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,27(2):129-143.doi:10.1007/s13351-013-0201-0.
原文杰.2014.华南前汛期降水及水汽输送特征研究[D].安徽农业大学硕士学位论文.Yuan Wenjie.2014.Characteristics of precipitation and moisture transportation in the pre-flood season in South China[D].M.S.thesis(in Chinese),Anhui Agricultural University.
张洁,周天军,宇如聪,等.2009.中国春季典型降水异常及相联系的大气水汽输送[J].大气科学,33(1):121-134.Zhang Jie,Zhou Tianjun,Yu Rucong,et al.2009.Atmospheric water vapor transport and corresponding typical anomalous spring rainfall patterns in China[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences(in Chinese),33(1):121-134.doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2009.01.11.
张强,邹旭恺,肖风劲.2006.GB/T 20481-2006气象干旱等级[S].北京:中国标准出版社:12-17.Zhang Qiang,Zou Xukai,Xiao Fengjin.2006.GB/T20481-2006 Classification of meteorological drought category[S].Beijing:Standards Press of China(in Chinese):12-17.
张旭斌,张熠.2011.一次华南暴雨过程的数值模拟--中尺度对流系统形成发展机制[J].气象科学,31(2):145-152.Zhang Xubin,Zhang Yi.2011.Numerical simulation of a heavy rainfall event in southern China:The mechanism of mesoscale convective system genesis and development[J].Scientia Meteorologica Sinica(in Chinese),31(2):145-152.doi:10.3969/j.issn.1009-0827.2011.02.004.
张效武,徐维国,施宏江,等.2007.安徽省旱涝急转规律的认识与研究[J].中国水利,(5):40-42.Zhang Xiaowu,Xu Weiguo,Shi Hongjiang,et al.2007.Understanding and studies of law of sudden turn of drought and flood in Anhui Province[J].China Water Resources(in Chinese),(5):40-42.doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-1123.2007.05.017.
中国气象局.2005-2015.中国气象灾害年鉴(2006)[M].北京:气象出版社,236pp.Dong Wenjie.2006.Chinese Meteorological Disaster Yearbook(in Chinese)[M].Beijing:China Meteorological Press.
Zhou T J.2003.Comparison of the global air-sea freshwater exchange evaluated from independent datasets[J].Progress in Natural Science,13(8):626-631.
Cavazos T.1999.Large-scale circulation anomalies conducive to extreme precipitation events and derivation of daily rainfall in northeastern Mexico and southeastern Texas[J].J.Climate,12(5):1506-1523.doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1999)012<1506:LSCACT>2.0.CO;2.
陈汉耀.1957.1954年长江淮河流域洪水时期的环流特征[J].气象学报,28(1):1-12.Chen Hanyao.1957.Circulation characteristics during the flood period over Yangtze-Huaihe velleys in 1954[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica(in Chinese),28(1):1-12.doi:10.11676/qxxb1957.001.
程智,徐敏,罗连升,等.2012.淮河流域旱涝急转气候特征研究[J].水文,32(1):73-79.Cheng Zhi,Xu Min,Luo Liansheng,et al.2012.Climate characteristics of drought-flood abrupt change events in Huaihe River basin[J].Journal of China Hydrology(in Chinese),32(1):73-79.doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-0852.2012.01.015.
丁一汇.1994.暴雨和中尺度气象学问题[J].气象学报,52(3):274-284.Ding Yihui.1994.Some aspects of rainstorm and meso-scale meteorology[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica(in Chinese),52(3):274-284.doi:10.11676/qxxb1994.036.
丁一汇,柳俊杰,孙颖,等.2007.东亚梅雨系统的天气-气候学研究[J].大气科学,31(6):1082-1101.Ding Yihui,Liu Junjie,Sun Ying,et al.2007.A study of the synoptic-climatology of the Meiyu system in East Asia[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences(in Chinese),31(6):1082-1101.doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2007.06.05.
丁一汇.2008.中国气象灾害大典(综合卷)[M].北京:气象出版社,948pp.Ding Yihui.2008.Editorial Committee of Chinese Meteorological Disaster Records.(in Chinese)[M].Beijing:China Meteorological Press,948pp.
封国林,杨涵洧,张世轩,等.2012.2011年春末夏初长江中下游地区旱涝急转成因初探[J].大气科学,36(5):1009-1026.Feng Guolin,Yang Hanwei,Zhang Shixuan,et al.2012.A preliminary research on the reason of a sharp turn from drought to flood in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River in late spring and early summer of 2011[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences(in Chinese),36(5):1009-1026.doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2012.11220.
高辉,蒋薇,李维京.2013.近20年华南降水季节循环由双峰型向单峰型的转变[J].科学通报,58(15):1438-1443.Gao Hui,Jiang Wei,Li Weijing.2013.Transition of the annual cycle of precipitation from double-peak mode to single-peak mode in South China[J].Chinese Science Bulletin,58(22):3994-3999.doi:10.1007/s11434-013-5905-0.
何编,孙照渤,李忠贤.2012.一次华南持续性暴雨的动力诊断分析和数值模拟[J].大气科学学报,35(4):466-476.He Bian,Sun Zhaobo,Li Zhongxian.2012.Dynamic diagnosis and numerical simulation of a persistent torrential rain case in South China[J].Transactions of Atmospheric Sciences(in Chinese),35(4):466-476.doi:10.3969/j.issn.1674-7097.2012.04.010.
何慧,廖雪萍,陆虹,等.2016.华南地区1961~2014年夏季长周期旱涝急转特征[J].地理学报,71(1):130-141.He Hui,Liao Xueping,Lu Hong,et al.2016.Features of long-cycle drought-flood abrupt alternation in South China during summer in 1961-2014[J].Acta Geographica Sinica(in Chinese),71(1):130-141.doi:10.11821/dlxb201601010.
Hirschboeck K.1987.Catastrophic flooding and atmospheric circulation anomalies[M]//Mayer L,Nash D.Catastrophic Flooding.Boston,MA:Allen and Unwin.
黄嘉佑.2004.气象统计分析与预报方法[M].3版.北京:气象出版社,10-28.Huang Jiayou.2004.Meteorological Statistical Analysis and Forecast Method(in Chinese)[M].3rd ed.Beijing:China Meteorological Press,10-28.
Kalnay E,Kanamitsu M,Kistler R,et al.1996.The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project[J].Bull.Amer.Meteor.Soc.,77(3):437-472.doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1996)077<0437:TNYRP>2.0.CO;2.
李丽平,许冠宇,成丽萍,等.2012.华南后汛期极端降水特征及变化趋势[J].大气科学学报,35(5):570-577.Li Liping,Xu Guanyu,Cheng Liping,et al.2012.Characteristics of extreme precipitation and its variation trend in the post-flood of South China[J].Transactions of Atmospheric Sciences(in Chinese),35(5):570-577.doi:10.3969/j.issn.1674-7097.2012.05.007.
林爱兰,梁建茵,李春晖,等.2007.“0506”华南持续性暴雨的季风环流背景[J].水科学进展,18(3):424-432.Lin Ailan,Liang Jianyin,Li Chunhui,et al.2007.Monsoon circulation background of
‘0506’continuous rainstorm in South China[J].Advances in Water Science(in Chinese),18(3):424-432.doi:10.3321/j.issn:1001-6791.2007.03.019.
刘凤丽,黄国兵.2012.旱涝急转形成机理及城市防涝减灾体系研究进展[J].长江科学院院报,29(11):28-32.Liu Fengli,Huang Guobing.2012.Research progress in formation mechanism of urban drought-flood abrupt alternation and urban waterlog prevention system[J].Journal of Yangtze River Scientific Research Institute(in Chinese),29(11):28-32.doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-5485.2012.11.006.
Mason R B,Anderson C E.1963.The development and decay of the100-mb Summertime anticyclone over southern Asia[J].Mon.Wea.Rev.,91(1):3-12.doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1963)091<0003:TDADOT>2.3.CO;2.
McKee T B,Doesken N J,Kleist J.1993.The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales[C]//Proceedings of the 8th Conference on Applied Climatology.Anaheim,USA:American Meteorological Society,179-184.
Rasmusson E M.1967.Atmospheric water vapor transport and the water balance of North America:Part I.Characteristics of the water vapor flux field[J].Mon.Wea.Rev.,95(7):403-426.doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1967)095<0403:AWVTAT>2.3.CO;2.
沈柏竹,张世轩,杨涵洧,等.2012.2011年春夏季长江中下游地区旱涝急转特征分析[J].物理学报,61(10):109202.Shen Baizhu,Zhang Shixuan,Yang Hanwei,et al.2012.Analysis of characteristics of a sharp turn from drought to flood in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River in spring and summer in 2011[J].Acta Physica Sinica(in Chinese),61(10):109202.doi:10.7498/aps.61.109202.
陶诗言,徐淑英.1962.夏季江淮流域持久性旱涝现象的环流特征[J].气象学报,32(1):1-10.Dao S Y,Hsu S Y.1962.Some aspects of the circulation during the periods of the persistent drought and flood in Yantze and Hwai-ho valleys in summer[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica(in Chinese),32(1):1-10.doi:10.11676/qxxb1962.001.
陶诗言,朱福康.1964.夏季亚洲南部100毫巴流型的变化及其与西太平洋副热带高压进退的关系[J].气象学报,34(4):385-396.Dao S Y,Chu F K.1964.The 100-mb flow patterns in southern Asia in summer and its relation to the advance and retreat of the West Pacific subtropical anticyclone[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica(in Chinese),34(4):385-396.doi:10.11676/qxxb1964.039.
Ting M,Wang H.1997.Summertime U.S.precipitation variability and its relation to pacific sea surface temperature[J].J.Climate,10(8):1853-1873.doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1997)010<1853:SUSPVA>2.0.CO;2.
童金,徐海明.2014.长江中下游旱涝急转年多尺度低频振荡特征及其对旱涝急转的影响[J].热带气象学报,30(4):707-718.Tong Jin,Xu Haiming.2014.Effects of multi-scale low frequency oscillations on the drought-flood abrupt transition over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River[J].Journal of Tropical Meteorology(in Chinese),30(4):707-718.10.3969/j.issn.1004-4965.2014.04.011.
Trenberth K E,Guillemot C J.1996.Physical processes involved in the1988 drought and 1993 floods in North America[J].J.Climate,9(6):1288-1298.doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1996)009<1288:PPIITD>2.0.CO;2.
涂长望.1936.东亚活动中心与我国水旱灾的关系[J].气象学报,12(11):600-619.Tu Changwang.1936.Chinese floods and droughts and their relationship with the centers of action in East Asia[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica(in Chinese),12(11):600-619.doi:10.11676/qxxb1936.080.
Vogel J L,Huff F A.1978.Relation between the St.Louis Urban precipitation anomaly and synoptic weather factors[J].J.Appl.Meteor.,17(8):1141-1152.doi:10.1175/1520-0450(1978)017<1141:RBTSLU>2.0.CO;2.
王胜,田红,丁小俊,等.2009.淮河流域主汛期降水气候特征及“旱涝急转”现象[J].中国农业气象,30(1):31-34.Wang Sheng,Tian Hong,Ding Xiaojun,et al.2009.Climate characteristics of precipitation and phenomenon of drought-flood abrupt alternation during main flood season in Huaihe River basin[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology(in Chinese),30(1):31-34.doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2009.01.007.
魏凤英.2007.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M].2版.北京:气象出版社,10-28.Wei Fengying.2007.Modern Climate Statistical Diagnosis and Prediction Technology(in Chinese)[M].2nd ed.Beijing:China Meteorological Press,10-28.
吴志伟,何金海,李建平,等.2006a.长江中下游夏季旱涝并存及其异常年海气特征分析[J].大气科学,30(4):570-577.Wu Zhiwei,He Jinhai,Li Jianping,et al.2006.The summer drought-flood coexistence in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and analysis of its air-sea background feathers in anomalous years[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences(in Chinese),30(4):570-577.doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2006.04.03.
吴志伟,李建平,何金海,等.2006b.大尺度大气环流异常与长江中下游夏季长周期旱涝急转[J].科学通报,51(14):1717-1724.Wu Zhiwei,Li Jianping,He Jinhai,et al.2006.Large-scale atmospheric singularities and summer long-cycle droughts-floods abrupt alternation in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River[J].Chinese Science Bulletin,51(16):2027-2034.doi:10.1007/s11434-006-2060-x.
吴志伟,李建平,何金海,等.2007.正常季风年华南夏季“旱涝并存、旱涝急转”之气候统计特征[J].自然科学进展,17(12):1665-1671.Wu Zhiwei,Li Jianping,He Jinhai,et al.2007.The statistical characteristics of summer droughts-floods coexistence and abrupt alternation of southern China in normal monsoon years[J].Progress in Natural Science(in Chinese),17(12):1665-1671.doi:10.3321/j.issn:1002-008x.2007.12.009.
徐敏,丁小俊,罗连升,等.2013.淮河流域夏季旱涝急转的低频环流成因[J].气象学报,71(1):86-95.Xu Min,Ding Xiaojun,Luo Liansheng,et al.2013.A possible cause of the low frequency circulation of summertime drought-flood abrupt alternation over the Huaihe River basin[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica(in Chinese),71(1):86-95.doi:10.11676/qxxb2013.007.
Yang S Y,Wu B Y,Zhang R H,et al.2013.Relationship between an abrupt drought-flood transition over mid-low reaches of the Yangtze River in 2011 and the intraseasonal oscillation over mid-high latitudes of East Asia[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,27(2):129-143.doi:10.1007/s13351-013-0201-0.
原文杰.2014.华南前汛期降水及水汽输送特征研究[D].安徽农业大学硕士学位论文.Yuan Wenjie.2014.Characteristics of precipitation and moisture transportation in the pre-flood season in South China[D].M.S.thesis(in Chinese),Anhui Agricultural University.
张洁,周天军,宇如聪,等.2009.中国春季典型降水异常及相联系的大气水汽输送[J].大气科学,33(1):121-134.Zhang Jie,Zhou Tianjun,Yu Rucong,et al.2009.Atmospheric water vapor transport and corresponding typical anomalous spring rainfall patterns in China[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences(in Chinese),33(1):121-134.doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2009.01.11.
张强,邹旭恺,肖风劲.2006.GB/T 20481-2006气象干旱等级[S].北京:中国标准出版社:12-17.Zhang Qiang,Zou Xukai,Xiao Fengjin.2006.GB/T20481-2006 Classification of meteorological drought category[S].Beijing:Standards Press of China(in Chinese):12-17.
张旭斌,张熠.2011.一次华南暴雨过程的数值模拟--中尺度对流系统形成发展机制[J].气象科学,31(2):145-152.Zhang Xubin,Zhang Yi.2011.Numerical simulation of a heavy rainfall event in southern China:The mechanism of mesoscale convective system genesis and development[J].Scientia Meteorologica Sinica(in Chinese),31(2):145-152.doi:10.3969/j.issn.1009-0827.2011.02.004.
张效武,徐维国,施宏江,等.2007.安徽省旱涝急转规律的认识与研究[J].中国水利,(5):40-42.Zhang Xiaowu,Xu Weiguo,Shi Hongjiang,et al.2007.Understanding and studies of law of sudden turn of drought and flood in Anhui Province[J].China Water Resources(in Chinese),(5):40-42.doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-1123.2007.05.017.
中国气象局.2005-2015.中国气象灾害年鉴(2006)[M].北京:气象出版社,236pp.Dong Wenjie.2006.Chinese Meteorological Disaster Yearbook(in Chinese)[M].Beijing:China Meteorological Press.
Zhou T J.2003.Comparison of the global air-sea freshwater exchange evaluated from independent datasets[J].Progress in Natural Science,13(8):626-631.
© 2004-2018 中国地质图书馆版权所有 京ICP备05064691号 京公网安备11010802017129号 地址：北京市海淀区学院路29号 邮编：100083 电话：办公室：(+86 10)66554848；文献借阅、咨询服务、科技查新：66554700 |