政府政策和市场竞争对欧盟国家可再生能源技术创新的影响
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摘要
可再生能源技术创新在应对气候变化和推动能源转型中发挥着关键作用,党的十九大报告明确提出构建市场导向的绿色技术创新体系。与政府环境政策相比,市场力量是否能更有效地促进可再生能源技术创新?本文以可再生能源技术世界领先、政府环境政策实施较早以及能源市场自由化程度较高的欧盟为研究对象,结合线性与非线性、静态与动态面板回归方法研究政府政策和市场竞争对欧盟可再生能源技术创新影响。研究发现:①政府环境政策和市场竞争对可再生能源技术创新的影响均为正向,即两者能有效诱发可再生能源技术创新。②政府环境政策和市场竞争对可再生能源技术创新的正向影响存在显著的非线性门槛效应。随着政府环境政策强度加大,其对可再生能源技术创新的正向影响逐渐递减,即环境政策对创新的诱发作用是有限的。随着能源市场竞争程度加深,市场竞争对可再生能源技术创新的正向影响增加,即市场竞争对创新的诱发作用是有效且持续的。③通过将各成员国现状与门槛值进行比较,发现欧盟现阶段环境政策强度处于过高的门槛区间,市场竞争强度处于较为合适的门槛区间。④进一步研究更有针对性的可再生能源政策,发现不同政策对可再生能源技术创新的影响存在异质性。研究结果可为中国实现能源转型、深化电力体制改革以及建立全国可再生能源绿色证书交易机制提供政策依据。
Renewable energy technological innovation plays a key role in coping with climate change and promoting energy transformation. The report of the 19 th National Congress of China proposes to build a market-oriented green technology innovation system. To examine whether market force can promote renewable energy technological innovation more effectively than government policy, we made an empirical analysis by linear and nonlinear, static and dynamic panel empirical methods based on transnational panel data of the European Union, which is the world leader in renewable energy technology, environmental policy implementation, and energy market liberation. The results show that:(1) On the whole, both government environmental policy and market competition have a positive impact on renewable energy patents, that is, they have significant inducing effects on renewable energy technological innovation.(2) Both government environmental policy and market competition have significant non-linear threshold effect on renewable energy patents. With the increasing intensity of the government's environmental policy,its positive impact on renewable energy technological innovation gradually decreases, that is, the inducing effect of policy is limited. With the deepening of energy market competition, the positive impact of market competition on renewable energy technological innovation increases, that is,market competition is effective and continuous in inducing renewable energy technological innovation.(3) By comparing the current situation and threshold values, we found that the majority of countries have crossed the threshold. That is, environmental policy intensity is too high, but market competition is in the appropriate threshold regime.(4) By examining renewable energy policy, we found that the impacts of different renewable energy policies on renewable energy technological innovation are heterogeneous. The results can provide some policy basis for China to achieve energy transformation, deepen the reform of electric power system, and establish a unified green certificate trading system of renewable energy.
Renewable energy technological innovation plays a key role in coping with climate change and promoting energy transformation. The report of the 19 th National Congress of China proposes to build a market-oriented green technology innovation system. To examine whether market force can promote renewable energy technological innovation more effectively than government policy, we made an empirical analysis by linear and nonlinear, static and dynamic panel empirical methods based on transnational panel data of the European Union, which is the world leader in renewable energy technology, environmental policy implementation, and energy market liberation. The results show that:(1) On the whole, both government environmental policy and market competition have a positive impact on renewable energy patents, that is, they have significant inducing effects on renewable energy technological innovation.(2) Both government environmental policy and market competition have significant non-linear threshold effect on renewable energy patents. With the increasing intensity of the government's environmental policy,its positive impact on renewable energy technological innovation gradually decreases, that is, the inducing effect of policy is limited. With the deepening of energy market competition, the positive impact of market competition on renewable energy technological innovation increases, that is,market competition is effective and continuous in inducing renewable energy technological innovation.(3) By comparing the current situation and threshold values, we found that the majority of countries have crossed the threshold. That is, environmental policy intensity is too high, but market competition is in the appropriate threshold regime.(4) By examining renewable energy policy, we found that the impacts of different renewable energy policies on renewable energy technological innovation are heterogeneous. The results can provide some policy basis for China to achieve energy transformation, deepen the reform of electric power system, and establish a unified green certificate trading system of renewable energy.
引文
[1]Gray W B.The cost of regulation:OSHA,EPA and the productivity slowdown[J].American Economic Review,1987,77(5):998-1006.
[2]Palmer K,Oates W E,Portney P R.Tightening environmental standards:The benefit-cost or the no-cost paradigm[J].Journal of Economic Perspectives,1995,9(4):119-132.
[3]Lanjouw J O,Mody A.Stimulating innovation and the international diffusion of environmentally responsive technology[J].Research Policy,1996,25(4):549-571.
[4]Brunnermeier S B,Cohen M A.Determinants of environmental innovation in US manufacturing industries[J].Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,2003,45(2):278-293.
[5]Schumpeter J A.Capitalism,Socialism and Democracy[M].New York:Harper&Row Publishers,1942.
[6]Sanyal P.The effect of deregulation on environmental research by electric utilities[J].Journal of Regulatory Economics,2007,31(3):335-353.
[7]Sterlacchini A.Energy R&D in private and state-owned utilities:Analysis of the major world electric companies[J].Energy Policy,2012,41:494-506.
[8]Aghion P,Harris C,Howitt P,et al.Competition,imitation and growth with step-by-step innovation[J].Review of Economic Studies,2001,68(3):467-492.
[9]Grossman G M,Helpman E.Endogenous product cycles[J].The Economic Journal,1991,101(408):1214-1229.
[10]Aghion P,Bloom N,Blundell R,et al.Competition and innovation:An inverted U relationship[J].Quarterly Journal of Economics,2005,120(2):701-728.
[11]Jamasb T,Pollitt M G.Electricity sector liberalisation and innovation:An analysis of the UK’s patenting activities[J].Research Policy,2011,40(2):309-324.
[12]Unruh G C.Understanding carbon lock-in[J].Energy Policy,2000,28(12):817-830.
[13]Winter S G.Schumpeterian competition in alternative technological regimes[J].Journal of Economic Behavior&Organization,1984,5(3-4):287-320.
[14]Klepper S.Entry,exit,growth,and innovation over the product life cycle[J].American Economic Review,1996,86(3):562-583.
[15]Jacobsson S,Bergek A.Transforming the energy sector:The evolution of technological systems in renewable energy technology[J].Industrial and Corporate Change,2004,13(5):815-849.
[16]Sanyal P,Ghosh S.Product market competition and upstream innovation:Evidence from the U.S.electricity market deregulation[J].Review of Economics and Statistics,2013,95(1):237-254.
[17]Nicolli F,Vona F.Heterogeneous policies,heterogeneous technologies:The case of renewable energy[J].Energy Economics,2016,56(35):190-204.
[18]程时雄,柳剑平.中国节能政策的经济增长效应与最优节能路径选择[J].资源科学,2014,36(12):2549-2559.[Cheng S X,Liu J P.Growth effects and optimal path for China’s energy-saving policy with energy constraints[J].Resources Science,2014,36(12):2549-2559.]
[19]张成,陆旸,郭路,等.环境规制强度和生产技术进步[J].经济研究,2011,(2):113-124.[Zhang C,Lu Y,Guo L,et al.The intensity of environmental regulation and technological progress of production[J].Economic Research Journal,2011,(2):113-124.]
[20]Porter M E.America’s green strategy[J].Scientific American,1991,DOI:10.1038/scientificamerican0491-168.
[21]Porter M E,Claas V D L.Toward a new conception of the environment-competitiveness relationship[J].The Journal of Economic Perspectives,1995,9(4):97-118.
[22]兰雪婷.我国碳减排交易制度初探[D].杭州:浙江大学,2012.[Lan X T.Preliminary Study of China’s Carbon Emissions Trade System[D].Hangzhou:Zhejiang University,2012.]
[23]毕清华,范英,蔡圣华,等.基于CDECGE模型的中国能源需求情景分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2013,23(1):41-48.[Bi QH,Fan Y,Cai S H,et al.Analysis of China’s primary energy demand scenarios based on the CDECGE model[J].China Population,Resources and Environment,2013,23(1):41-48.]
[24]毕超.中国能源CO2排放峰值方案及政策建议[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2015,25(5):20-27.[Bi C.Scheme and policies for peaking energy carbon emissions in China[J].China Population,Resources and Environment,2015,25(5):20-27.]
[25]Popp D.Innovation and climate policy[J].Annual Review of Resource Economics,2010,2:275-298.
[26]Popp D,Newell R G,Jaffe A B.Chapter 21-Energy,the Environment,and Technological Change[A].Hall B H,Rosenberg N.Handbook of the Economics of Innovation[C].Amsterdam:NorthHolland Publishing Co.,2010.
[27]Johnstone N,Ha??i?I,Popp D.Renewable energy policies and technological innovation:Evidence based on patent counts[J].Environmental and Resource Economics,2010,45(1):133-155.
[28]Nesta L,Vona F,Nicolli F.Environmental policies,competition and innovation in renewable energy[J].Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,2014,67(3):396-411.
[29]Dosi G.Technological paradigms and technological trajectories:Asuggested interpretation of the determinants and directions of technical change[J].Research Policy,1982,11(3):147-162.
[30]Nemet G F.Demand-pull,technology-push,and government-led incentives for non-incremental technical change[J].Research Policy,2009,38(5):700-709.
[31]Montgomery D W,Smith A E.Price,Quantity and Technology Strategies for Climate Change Policy[A].Schlessinger M E.Human-Induced Climate Change:An Interdisciplinary Assessment[C].New York:Cambridge University Press,2007.
[32]苏竣,张芳.政策组合和清洁能源创新模式:基于光伏产业的跨国比较研究[J].国际经济评论,2015,(5):132-142.[Su J,Zhang F.Policy mix and renewable energy innovation mode:Across-national comparative analysis of the PV industry[J].International Economic Review,2015,(5):132-142.]
[33]Peters M,Schneider M,Griesshaber T,et al.The impact of technology-push and demand-pull policies on technical change:Does the locus of policies matter?[J].Research Policy,2012,41(8):1296-1308.
[34]Popp D.Induced innovation and energy prices[J].American Economic Review,2002,92(1):160-180.
[35]Aghion P,Dechezleprêtre A,Hemous D,et al.Carbon taxes,path dependency and directed technical change:Evidence from the auto industry[J].Journal of Political Economy,2016,124(1):1-51.
[36]Hansen B E.Threshold effects in non-dynamic panels:Estimation,testing,and inference[J].Journal of Econometrics,1999,93(2):345-368.
[37]李凡,李娜,许昕.基于政策工具的可再生能源技术创新能力影响因素研究[J].科学学与科学技术管理,2016,37(10):3-13.[Li F,Li N,Xu X.Renewable energy technology innovation capabilities research based on policy instruments aspect[J].Science of Science and Management of S.&.T.,2016,37(10):3-13.]
[38]Botta E,Ko?luk T.Measuring Environmental Policy Stringency in OECD Countries:A Composite Index Approach[R].Paris:OECDEconomics Department Working Papers No.1177,2014.
[39]Conway P,Janod V,Nicoletti G.Product Market Regulation in OECD Countries:1998 to 2003[R].Paris:OECD Economics Department Working Papers No.419,2005.
[40]Conway P,Nicoletti G.Product Market Regulation in the NonManufacturing Sectors of OECD Countries:Measurement and Highlights[R].OECD Economics Department Working Papers No.530,2006.
[41]Nicoletti G,Pryor F L.Subjective and objective measures of governmental regulations in OECD nations[J].Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization,2006,59(3):433-449.
[42]邵庆龙,饶蕾.可再生能源创新的影响因素分析:基于OECD国家的实证检验[J].软科学,2016,30(1):71-75.[Shao Q L,Rao L.Impact factors of renewable energy innovation:Empirical evidences from OECD countries[J].Soft Science,2016,30(1):71-75.]
[43]王兰体,蔡国田,赵黛青.基于专利视角的中国可再生能源技术创新分析[J].科技管理研究,2015,(20):161-165.[Wang L T,Cai G T,Zhao D Q,Analysis of China’s renewable energy technology innovation based on patents[J].Science and Technology Management Research,2015,(20):161-165.]
[44]王班班,齐绍洲.市场型和命令型政策工具的节能减排技术创新效应:基于中国工业行业专利数据的实证[J].中国工业经济,2016,(6):91-108.[Wang B B,Qi S Z.The effect of market-oriented and command-and-control policy tools on emissions reduction innovation:An empirical analysis based on China’s industrial patents data[J].China Industrial Economics,2016,(6):91-108.]
(1)与可再生能源技术创新相关的政府政策既包括广泛的环境政策,也包括具体的可再生能源政策。
(2)包括比利时、捷克、丹麦、德国、爱尔兰、希腊、西班牙、法国、意大利、匈牙利、荷兰、奥地利、波兰、葡萄牙、斯洛文尼亚、斯洛伐克、芬兰、瑞典、英国。
(3)1990年是欧盟大多数气候行动目标的基准年,如2020年、2030年和2050年气候政策目标。
(4)这14种环境政策工具包括,碳税、柴油税、氮氧化物税、硫氧化物税、绿色证书交易、碳排放权交易、白色证书交易、风能上网电价、太阳能上网电价、氮氧化物排放标准、硫氧化物排放标准、颗粒物排放标准、柴油含硫量标准、可再生能源研发补贴。
[2]Palmer K,Oates W E,Portney P R.Tightening environmental standards:The benefit-cost or the no-cost paradigm[J].Journal of Economic Perspectives,1995,9(4):119-132.
[3]Lanjouw J O,Mody A.Stimulating innovation and the international diffusion of environmentally responsive technology[J].Research Policy,1996,25(4):549-571.
[4]Brunnermeier S B,Cohen M A.Determinants of environmental innovation in US manufacturing industries[J].Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,2003,45(2):278-293.
[5]Schumpeter J A.Capitalism,Socialism and Democracy[M].New York:Harper&Row Publishers,1942.
[6]Sanyal P.The effect of deregulation on environmental research by electric utilities[J].Journal of Regulatory Economics,2007,31(3):335-353.
[7]Sterlacchini A.Energy R&D in private and state-owned utilities:Analysis of the major world electric companies[J].Energy Policy,2012,41:494-506.
[8]Aghion P,Harris C,Howitt P,et al.Competition,imitation and growth with step-by-step innovation[J].Review of Economic Studies,2001,68(3):467-492.
[9]Grossman G M,Helpman E.Endogenous product cycles[J].The Economic Journal,1991,101(408):1214-1229.
[10]Aghion P,Bloom N,Blundell R,et al.Competition and innovation:An inverted U relationship[J].Quarterly Journal of Economics,2005,120(2):701-728.
[11]Jamasb T,Pollitt M G.Electricity sector liberalisation and innovation:An analysis of the UK’s patenting activities[J].Research Policy,2011,40(2):309-324.
[12]Unruh G C.Understanding carbon lock-in[J].Energy Policy,2000,28(12):817-830.
[13]Winter S G.Schumpeterian competition in alternative technological regimes[J].Journal of Economic Behavior&Organization,1984,5(3-4):287-320.
[14]Klepper S.Entry,exit,growth,and innovation over the product life cycle[J].American Economic Review,1996,86(3):562-583.
[15]Jacobsson S,Bergek A.Transforming the energy sector:The evolution of technological systems in renewable energy technology[J].Industrial and Corporate Change,2004,13(5):815-849.
[16]Sanyal P,Ghosh S.Product market competition and upstream innovation:Evidence from the U.S.electricity market deregulation[J].Review of Economics and Statistics,2013,95(1):237-254.
[17]Nicolli F,Vona F.Heterogeneous policies,heterogeneous technologies:The case of renewable energy[J].Energy Economics,2016,56(35):190-204.
[18]程时雄,柳剑平.中国节能政策的经济增长效应与最优节能路径选择[J].资源科学,2014,36(12):2549-2559.[Cheng S X,Liu J P.Growth effects and optimal path for China’s energy-saving policy with energy constraints[J].Resources Science,2014,36(12):2549-2559.]
[19]张成,陆旸,郭路,等.环境规制强度和生产技术进步[J].经济研究,2011,(2):113-124.[Zhang C,Lu Y,Guo L,et al.The intensity of environmental regulation and technological progress of production[J].Economic Research Journal,2011,(2):113-124.]
[20]Porter M E.America’s green strategy[J].Scientific American,1991,DOI:10.1038/scientificamerican0491-168.
[21]Porter M E,Claas V D L.Toward a new conception of the environment-competitiveness relationship[J].The Journal of Economic Perspectives,1995,9(4):97-118.
[22]兰雪婷.我国碳减排交易制度初探[D].杭州:浙江大学,2012.[Lan X T.Preliminary Study of China’s Carbon Emissions Trade System[D].Hangzhou:Zhejiang University,2012.]
[23]毕清华,范英,蔡圣华,等.基于CDECGE模型的中国能源需求情景分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2013,23(1):41-48.[Bi QH,Fan Y,Cai S H,et al.Analysis of China’s primary energy demand scenarios based on the CDECGE model[J].China Population,Resources and Environment,2013,23(1):41-48.]
[24]毕超.中国能源CO2排放峰值方案及政策建议[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2015,25(5):20-27.[Bi C.Scheme and policies for peaking energy carbon emissions in China[J].China Population,Resources and Environment,2015,25(5):20-27.]
[25]Popp D.Innovation and climate policy[J].Annual Review of Resource Economics,2010,2:275-298.
[26]Popp D,Newell R G,Jaffe A B.Chapter 21-Energy,the Environment,and Technological Change[A].Hall B H,Rosenberg N.Handbook of the Economics of Innovation[C].Amsterdam:NorthHolland Publishing Co.,2010.
[27]Johnstone N,Ha??i?I,Popp D.Renewable energy policies and technological innovation:Evidence based on patent counts[J].Environmental and Resource Economics,2010,45(1):133-155.
[28]Nesta L,Vona F,Nicolli F.Environmental policies,competition and innovation in renewable energy[J].Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,2014,67(3):396-411.
[29]Dosi G.Technological paradigms and technological trajectories:Asuggested interpretation of the determinants and directions of technical change[J].Research Policy,1982,11(3):147-162.
[30]Nemet G F.Demand-pull,technology-push,and government-led incentives for non-incremental technical change[J].Research Policy,2009,38(5):700-709.
[31]Montgomery D W,Smith A E.Price,Quantity and Technology Strategies for Climate Change Policy[A].Schlessinger M E.Human-Induced Climate Change:An Interdisciplinary Assessment[C].New York:Cambridge University Press,2007.
[32]苏竣,张芳.政策组合和清洁能源创新模式:基于光伏产业的跨国比较研究[J].国际经济评论,2015,(5):132-142.[Su J,Zhang F.Policy mix and renewable energy innovation mode:Across-national comparative analysis of the PV industry[J].International Economic Review,2015,(5):132-142.]
[33]Peters M,Schneider M,Griesshaber T,et al.The impact of technology-push and demand-pull policies on technical change:Does the locus of policies matter?[J].Research Policy,2012,41(8):1296-1308.
[34]Popp D.Induced innovation and energy prices[J].American Economic Review,2002,92(1):160-180.
[35]Aghion P,Dechezleprêtre A,Hemous D,et al.Carbon taxes,path dependency and directed technical change:Evidence from the auto industry[J].Journal of Political Economy,2016,124(1):1-51.
[36]Hansen B E.Threshold effects in non-dynamic panels:Estimation,testing,and inference[J].Journal of Econometrics,1999,93(2):345-368.
[37]李凡,李娜,许昕.基于政策工具的可再生能源技术创新能力影响因素研究[J].科学学与科学技术管理,2016,37(10):3-13.[Li F,Li N,Xu X.Renewable energy technology innovation capabilities research based on policy instruments aspect[J].Science of Science and Management of S.&.T.,2016,37(10):3-13.]
[38]Botta E,Ko?luk T.Measuring Environmental Policy Stringency in OECD Countries:A Composite Index Approach[R].Paris:OECDEconomics Department Working Papers No.1177,2014.
[39]Conway P,Janod V,Nicoletti G.Product Market Regulation in OECD Countries:1998 to 2003[R].Paris:OECD Economics Department Working Papers No.419,2005.
[40]Conway P,Nicoletti G.Product Market Regulation in the NonManufacturing Sectors of OECD Countries:Measurement and Highlights[R].OECD Economics Department Working Papers No.530,2006.
[41]Nicoletti G,Pryor F L.Subjective and objective measures of governmental regulations in OECD nations[J].Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization,2006,59(3):433-449.
[42]邵庆龙,饶蕾.可再生能源创新的影响因素分析:基于OECD国家的实证检验[J].软科学,2016,30(1):71-75.[Shao Q L,Rao L.Impact factors of renewable energy innovation:Empirical evidences from OECD countries[J].Soft Science,2016,30(1):71-75.]
[43]王兰体,蔡国田,赵黛青.基于专利视角的中国可再生能源技术创新分析[J].科技管理研究,2015,(20):161-165.[Wang L T,Cai G T,Zhao D Q,Analysis of China’s renewable energy technology innovation based on patents[J].Science and Technology Management Research,2015,(20):161-165.]
[44]王班班,齐绍洲.市场型和命令型政策工具的节能减排技术创新效应:基于中国工业行业专利数据的实证[J].中国工业经济,2016,(6):91-108.[Wang B B,Qi S Z.The effect of market-oriented and command-and-control policy tools on emissions reduction innovation:An empirical analysis based on China’s industrial patents data[J].China Industrial Economics,2016,(6):91-108.]
(1)与可再生能源技术创新相关的政府政策既包括广泛的环境政策,也包括具体的可再生能源政策。
(2)包括比利时、捷克、丹麦、德国、爱尔兰、希腊、西班牙、法国、意大利、匈牙利、荷兰、奥地利、波兰、葡萄牙、斯洛文尼亚、斯洛伐克、芬兰、瑞典、英国。
(3)1990年是欧盟大多数气候行动目标的基准年,如2020年、2030年和2050年气候政策目标。
(4)这14种环境政策工具包括,碳税、柴油税、氮氧化物税、硫氧化物税、绿色证书交易、碳排放权交易、白色证书交易、风能上网电价、太阳能上网电价、氮氧化物排放标准、硫氧化物排放标准、颗粒物排放标准、柴油含硫量标准、可再生能源研发补贴。
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