非常规油气资源开发投资决策优化模型研究
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摘要
非常规油气资源作为最现实的可替代能源,对其进行勘探和开发对于降低日益加大的石油供需矛盾缺口和确保国家能源安全均具有重要的战略意义。然而,非常规油气资源勘探开发十分复杂,开发投资决策好坏已经成为制约其能否实现规模化和产业化的关键问题,科学投资决策问题已逐步成为石油企业高层管理者的主要职责。针对非常规油气资源开发投资的多阶段多目标决策优化难题,以可供开发区块的资源分配为重点研究对象,从解决不同区块投资规模入手,运用多阶段决策、多目标决策和不确定多属性方案优选的方法理论,通过剖析非常规油气开发投资决策过程及其复杂性特征,将开发投资决策过程进行形式化描述并在计算机中加以实现,从而得以实现开发投资决策方案的动态性调整。本项研究不仅有助于深化多目标动态优化决策理论的研究,还为解决非常规油气资源开发投资决策难题提供一种新的思路和方法。
Unconventional oil resources,the most feasible substitute energy,may redraw the world oil map and are being regarded as one of the best investment opportunities by most of oil companies. However,extremely complexities,high-risk venture,and significant uncertainties pervade the overall exploration and development process compared to conventional oil. This paper focuses on investment decision to optimize objectives of unconventional oil development. A multi-stage and multi-objective decision making model is set up to explore the most satisfied solution which makes trade-off among several conflicting objectives. The paper is organized as follows:Firstly,the strategic role of unconventional oil is shown and the related researches on this paper are analyzed.Secondly,a problem to be solved is stated and the investment decision-making process is analyzed to be multistage and multi-objective. Thirdly,the mathematical models are developed based on the dynamic programming,fuzzy multi-attribute decision-making methods,and multiple objective optimization approaches,and the algorithm is given in section 2. 2. Fourthly,a numerical example is presented to apply the model to deal with oil sands development for an oil company. The result demonstrates that the model is effective and efficient to provide a novel and important approach to explore the strategic decision problem of unconventional oil exploration and development.
Unconventional oil resources,the most feasible substitute energy,may redraw the world oil map and are being regarded as one of the best investment opportunities by most of oil companies. However,extremely complexities,high-risk venture,and significant uncertainties pervade the overall exploration and development process compared to conventional oil. This paper focuses on investment decision to optimize objectives of unconventional oil development. A multi-stage and multi-objective decision making model is set up to explore the most satisfied solution which makes trade-off among several conflicting objectives. The paper is organized as follows:Firstly,the strategic role of unconventional oil is shown and the related researches on this paper are analyzed.Secondly,a problem to be solved is stated and the investment decision-making process is analyzed to be multistage and multi-objective. Thirdly,the mathematical models are developed based on the dynamic programming,fuzzy multi-attribute decision-making methods,and multiple objective optimization approaches,and the algorithm is given in section 2. 2. Fourthly,a numerical example is presented to apply the model to deal with oil sands development for an oil company. The result demonstrates that the model is effective and efficient to provide a novel and important approach to explore the strategic decision problem of unconventional oil exploration and development.
引文
[1]胡文瑞.我国非常规天然气资源、现状、问题及解决方案[J].石油科技论坛,2012,31(6):1-4.
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[4]邹才能,杨智,崔景伟,朱如凯,侯连华,陶士振.页岩油形成机制、地质特征及发展对策[J].石油勘探与开发,2013,40(1):14-26.
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[8]严陆光,陈俊武,周凤起,等.我国中远期石油补充与替代能源发展战略研究[J].电工电能新技术,2006,25(4):1-14.
[9]邹才能,翟光明,张光亚,等.全球常规-非常规油气形成分布、资源潜力及趋势预测[J].石油勘探与开发,2015,42(1):13-25.
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[11] Greene D L,Hopson J L,Li J. Have we run out of oil yet? oil peaking analysis from an optimist’s perspective[J]. Energy Policy,2006,34(5):515-531.
[12] Clarkson C R,Jensen J L,Chipperfield S. Unconventional gas reservoir evaluation:what do we have to consider?[J]. Journal of Natural Gas Science&Engineering,2012,8(9):9-33.
[13] Mcglade C,Speirs J,Sorrell S. Unconventional gas-a review of regional and global resource estimates[J].Energy,2013,55(1):571-584.
[14] Mohr S H,Evans G M. Long term prediction of unconventional oil production[J]. Energy Policy,2010,38(1):265-276.
[15] Soderbegh B, Robelius F, Aleklett K. A crash programme scenario for the canadian oil sand industry[J]. Energy Policy,2007,35(3):1931-1947.
[16]贾承造,郑民,张永峰.中国非常规油气资源与勘探开发前景[J].石油勘探与开发,2012,39(2):129-136.
[17]翟光明,何文渊,王世洪.中国页岩气实现产业化发展需重视的几个问题[J].天然气工业,2012,32(2):1-5.
[18]陈晓智,陈桂华,肖钢,等.北美TMS页岩油地质评价及勘探有利区预测[J].中国石油勘探,2014,19(2):77-84.
[19]王志刚.应用学习曲线实现非常规油气规模有效开发[J].天然气工业,2014,34(6):1-8.
[20]孙金凤,胡祥培.页岩气区块优选的模糊动态多属性决策模型研究[J].运筹与管理,2017,26(2):1-8.
[21]孙金凤.非常规油气资源勘探开发的投资决策优化模型研究[D].大连:大连理工大学,2015.
[22]陈守煜,周惠成.多阶段多目标系统的模糊优化决策理论与模型[J].水电能源科学,1991,9(1):9-17.
[23]陈守煜.多阶段多目标决策系统模糊优选理论及其应用[J].水利学报,1990(1):1-10.
[24] Resurreccion J,Santos J R. Multiobjective prioritization methodology and decision support system for evaluating inventory enhancement strategies for disrupted interdependent sectors[J]. Risk Analysis,2012,32(10):1673-92.
[25] Pereira Junior B R,Cossi A M,Contreras J,Sanches Mantovani J R. Multiobjective multistage distribution system planning using tabu search[J]. IET Generation Transmission&Distribution,2014,8(1):35-45.
[26]陈志旺,陈林,白锌,等.求解约束多目标区间优化的交互多属性决策NSGA-II算法[J].控制与决策,2015,30(5):865-870.
[27] Mahmoud A. Abo-Sinna. Multiple objective(fuzzy)dynamic programming problems:a survey and some applications[J]. Applied Mathematics and Computation,2004,157(3):861-888.
[28]熊德琪,殷佩海.多阶段系统多目标优化的模糊优选动态规划方法及应用[J].中国工程科学,2000,2(9):65-69.
[29] Orman M M,Duggan T E. Applying modern portfolio theory to upstream investment decision making[J].Journal of petroleum technology, 1999, 51(03):50-53.
[30] Walls M R. Combining decision analysis and portfolio management to improve project selection in the exploration and production firm[J]. Journal of Petroleum Science and Engineering,2004,44(1):55-65.
[31]徐泽水,孙在东.一类不确定型多属性决策问题的排序方法[J].管理科学学报,2002,5(3):35-39.
[32] Nijkamp P, Delft A V. Multi-criteria analysis and regional decision-making[M]. New York:Springer Verlag,1977.
[33]徐泽水,达庆利.区间数排序的可能度法及其应用[J].系统工程学报,2003,18(1):67-70.
[2] Méjean A,Hope C. Modelling the costs of non-conventional oil:a case study of canadian bitumen[J]. Energy Policy,2008,36(11):4205-4216.
[3] Kaufmann R K,Shiers L D. Alternatives to conventional crude oil:when,how quickly,and market driven?[J].Ecological Economics,2008,67(3):405-411.
[4]邹才能,杨智,崔景伟,朱如凯,侯连华,陶士振.页岩油形成机制、地质特征及发展对策[J].石油勘探与开发,2013,40(1):14-26.
[5]邹才能,陶士振,白斌,等.论非常规油气与常规油气的区别和联系[J].中国石油勘探,2015,20(1):1-14.
[6] Bistline J E. Natural gas,uncertainty,and climate policy in the US electric power sector[J]. Energy Policy,2014,74:433-442.
[7] Shuen A,Feiler P F,Teece D J. Dynamic capabilities in the upstream oil and gas sector:managing next generation competition[J]. Energy Strategy Reviews,2014,3:5-13.
[8]严陆光,陈俊武,周凤起,等.我国中远期石油补充与替代能源发展战略研究[J].电工电能新技术,2006,25(4):1-14.
[9]邹才能,翟光明,张光亚,等.全球常规-非常规油气形成分布、资源潜力及趋势预测[J].石油勘探与开发,2015,42(1):13-25.
[10] De Castro C,Miguel L J,Mediavilla M. The role of non-conventional oil in the attenuation of peak oil[J].Energy Policy,2009,37(5):1825-1833.
[11] Greene D L,Hopson J L,Li J. Have we run out of oil yet? oil peaking analysis from an optimist’s perspective[J]. Energy Policy,2006,34(5):515-531.
[12] Clarkson C R,Jensen J L,Chipperfield S. Unconventional gas reservoir evaluation:what do we have to consider?[J]. Journal of Natural Gas Science&Engineering,2012,8(9):9-33.
[13] Mcglade C,Speirs J,Sorrell S. Unconventional gas-a review of regional and global resource estimates[J].Energy,2013,55(1):571-584.
[14] Mohr S H,Evans G M. Long term prediction of unconventional oil production[J]. Energy Policy,2010,38(1):265-276.
[15] Soderbegh B, Robelius F, Aleklett K. A crash programme scenario for the canadian oil sand industry[J]. Energy Policy,2007,35(3):1931-1947.
[16]贾承造,郑民,张永峰.中国非常规油气资源与勘探开发前景[J].石油勘探与开发,2012,39(2):129-136.
[17]翟光明,何文渊,王世洪.中国页岩气实现产业化发展需重视的几个问题[J].天然气工业,2012,32(2):1-5.
[18]陈晓智,陈桂华,肖钢,等.北美TMS页岩油地质评价及勘探有利区预测[J].中国石油勘探,2014,19(2):77-84.
[19]王志刚.应用学习曲线实现非常规油气规模有效开发[J].天然气工业,2014,34(6):1-8.
[20]孙金凤,胡祥培.页岩气区块优选的模糊动态多属性决策模型研究[J].运筹与管理,2017,26(2):1-8.
[21]孙金凤.非常规油气资源勘探开发的投资决策优化模型研究[D].大连:大连理工大学,2015.
[22]陈守煜,周惠成.多阶段多目标系统的模糊优化决策理论与模型[J].水电能源科学,1991,9(1):9-17.
[23]陈守煜.多阶段多目标决策系统模糊优选理论及其应用[J].水利学报,1990(1):1-10.
[24] Resurreccion J,Santos J R. Multiobjective prioritization methodology and decision support system for evaluating inventory enhancement strategies for disrupted interdependent sectors[J]. Risk Analysis,2012,32(10):1673-92.
[25] Pereira Junior B R,Cossi A M,Contreras J,Sanches Mantovani J R. Multiobjective multistage distribution system planning using tabu search[J]. IET Generation Transmission&Distribution,2014,8(1):35-45.
[26]陈志旺,陈林,白锌,等.求解约束多目标区间优化的交互多属性决策NSGA-II算法[J].控制与决策,2015,30(5):865-870.
[27] Mahmoud A. Abo-Sinna. Multiple objective(fuzzy)dynamic programming problems:a survey and some applications[J]. Applied Mathematics and Computation,2004,157(3):861-888.
[28]熊德琪,殷佩海.多阶段系统多目标优化的模糊优选动态规划方法及应用[J].中国工程科学,2000,2(9):65-69.
[29] Orman M M,Duggan T E. Applying modern portfolio theory to upstream investment decision making[J].Journal of petroleum technology, 1999, 51(03):50-53.
[30] Walls M R. Combining decision analysis and portfolio management to improve project selection in the exploration and production firm[J]. Journal of Petroleum Science and Engineering,2004,44(1):55-65.
[31]徐泽水,孙在东.一类不确定型多属性决策问题的排序方法[J].管理科学学报,2002,5(3):35-39.
[32] Nijkamp P, Delft A V. Multi-criteria analysis and regional decision-making[M]. New York:Springer Verlag,1977.
[33]徐泽水,达庆利.区间数排序的可能度法及其应用[J].系统工程学报,2003,18(1):67-70.
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