人口集聚对城市经济增长的影响研究
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摘要
选取2009—2016年30个城市全市与市辖区面板数据,采用系统GMM模型研究全市与市辖区人口集聚对城市经济增长的影响,对30个城市的人口集聚效应进行比较分析,并选取西安、武汉、天津等3个城市,分析其自实施人才引进政策后新增落户人口对城市经济的影响。研究结果表明:市辖区的人口集聚比全市更能促进城市经济的发展;中东部城市人口集聚对经济的促进作用明显小于西部地区;人口集聚与城市经济增长符合威廉姆森"倒U形"假说;西安、武汉和天津人口集聚对经济增长的促进作用依次递减,但武汉2017年新增落户人口人均创造价值高于西安;天津"海河英才"计划对经济的促进作用有限。
This paper aims at studying the impact of population agglomeration on urban economic growth by using the 2009-2016 panel data of 30 cities and their administered districts and employing the systematic GMM.It compares and analyzes the population agglomeration effects on the 30 cities.It particularly selects three cities,namely,Xi'an,Wuhan and Tianjin,to study the impact of their newly registered population on the urban economy after the implementation of talent introduction policy.The study has the following findings:the population concentration of their administered districts can promote the urban economic growth more than that of the cities proper;the effect of population agglomeration in Central and East China on the economic growth is much less than that in West China;the correlation between population agglomeration and urban economic growth is in line with Williamson's hypothesis—an inverse U-shape curve;the effect of population agglomeration in Xi'an,Wuhan and Tianjin on economic growth decrease successively,but the value per capita created by Wuhan's population registered in 2017 is higher than that by Xi'an's population registered in the same year;Tianjin's Haihe Talent Plan has a limited role in promoting its economy.
This paper aims at studying the impact of population agglomeration on urban economic growth by using the 2009-2016 panel data of 30 cities and their administered districts and employing the systematic GMM.It compares and analyzes the population agglomeration effects on the 30 cities.It particularly selects three cities,namely,Xi'an,Wuhan and Tianjin,to study the impact of their newly registered population on the urban economy after the implementation of talent introduction policy.The study has the following findings:the population concentration of their administered districts can promote the urban economic growth more than that of the cities proper;the effect of population agglomeration in Central and East China on the economic growth is much less than that in West China;the correlation between population agglomeration and urban economic growth is in line with Williamson's hypothesis—an inverse U-shape curve;the effect of population agglomeration in Xi'an,Wuhan and Tianjin on economic growth decrease successively,but the value per capita created by Wuhan's population registered in 2017 is higher than that by Xi'an's population registered in the same year;Tianjin's Haihe Talent Plan has a limited role in promoting its economy.
引文
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[23]杨东亮,任浩锋.中国人口集聚对区域经济发展的影响研究[J].人口学刊,2018(3):30-41.
[24]任柯柯.省会城市人口集聚对省域经济增长的影响:基于中国省级数据的实证检验[J].现代城市研究,2018(3):15-23.
[25]孙浦阳,武力超,张伯伟.空间集聚是否总能促进经济增长:不同假定条件下的思考[J].世界经济,2011(10):3-20.
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[27]王智勇.人口集聚与区域经济增长:对威廉姆森假说的一个检验[J].南京社会科学,2018(3):60-69.
[28]陈强.高级计量经济学及Stata应用[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2013:261.
[2]BITTER C.Geography,housing prices,and interregional migration dissertation[D].Tucson:the Faculty of the Department of Geography and Regional Development,University of Arizona,2008.
[3]SCHMIDT P.The EU structural funds as a means to hamper migration[J].Jahrbuch Für Regional Wissenschaft,2013(1):73-99.
[4]SAKS R E,WOZNIAK A.labor reallocation over the business cycle:new evidence from internal migration[J].Journal of labor economics,2011(4):697-739.
[5]KUBIS A.Sectoral movement as an incentive for interregional migration[C].Louvain-la-Neuve:European Regional Science Association,2005.
[6]KNAPP T A,GRABEST P E.On the role of amenities in models of migration and regional development[J].Journal of Regional Science,1989(1):71-87.
[7]BRALMAN S,GARRETSEN H,MARREWIJLKC V.The new introduction to geographical economics[M].2nd ed.Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,1998.
[8]BALDWIN R E,FORSLID R.The core-periphery model and endogenous growth:stabilizing and destabilizing integration[J].Economica,2000(267):307-324.
[9]FORSLID R.Agglomeration with human and physical capital:an analytically solvable case[C].Cepr Discussion Papers,1999.
[10]CAPELLO R.Regional economics[M].London:Routledge,2007.
[11]PONS J,PALUZIE E,SILBESTRE J,TIRADO D.Testing the new economic geography:migrations and industrial agglomerations in Spain[J].Journal of Regional Science,2007(2):289-313.
[12]CROZET M.Domigrants follow market potentials[J].Journal of Economic Geography,2004(4):107-128.
[13]RITSILJ,OVASKAINEN M.Migration and regional centralization of human capital[J].Applied Economics,2001(3):317-325.
[14]FAGGIAN A,MCCANN P.Universities,agglomerations and graduate human capital mobility[J].Tijdschrift Voor Economische En Sociale Geografie,2009(2):210-223.
[15]FAGGIAN A,MCCANN P.Human capital,graduate migration and innovation in British regions[J].Cambridge Journal of Economics,2009(2):317-333.
[16]FRATESI U,PERCOCO M.Selective migration,regional growth and convergence:evidence from Italy[J].Regional Studies,2014(10):1650-1668.
[17]马红旗,陈仲常.我国省际流动人口的特征:基于全国第六次人口普查数据[J].人口研究,2012(6):87-99.
[18]乔晓春,黄衍华.中国跨省流动人口状况:基于“六普”数据的分析[J].人口与发展,2013(1):13-28.
[19]刘晏伶,冯健.中国人口迁移特征及其影响因素:基于第六次人口普查数据的分析[J].人文地理,2014(2):129-137.
[20]董源.我国区域经济发展对人口迁移的影响:基于2007到2014年省际数据[J].商,2016(7):284.
[21]蔡阳,左文鼎.我国区域人口迁移的时代表征及其政策启示[J].理论探讨,2014(6):97-100.
[22]何昊,陈炫任.人口迁移与区域经济发展的关系[J].知识经济,2015(17):51.
[23]杨东亮,任浩锋.中国人口集聚对区域经济发展的影响研究[J].人口学刊,2018(3):30-41.
[24]任柯柯.省会城市人口集聚对省域经济增长的影响:基于中国省级数据的实证检验[J].现代城市研究,2018(3):15-23.
[25]孙浦阳,武力超,张伯伟.空间集聚是否总能促进经济增长:不同假定条件下的思考[J].世界经济,2011(10):3-20.
[26]谢里,朱国姝,陈钦.人口集聚与经济增长:基于跨国数据的经验研究[J].系统工程,2012(8):113-117.
[27]王智勇.人口集聚与区域经济增长:对威廉姆森假说的一个检验[J].南京社会科学,2018(3):60-69.
[28]陈强.高级计量经济学及Stata应用[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2013:261.
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