柑橘大实蝇觅食高峰期成虫量与产卵痕率的关系模型研究
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摘要
【目的】通过研究柑橘大实蝇Bactrocera minax觅食高峰期成虫发生量与产卵痕率的关系,为柑橘大实蝇的预测预报和综合防治提供理论指导。【方法】通过调查柑橘大实蝇觅食高峰期在全田、橘园、杂树林、橘园与杂树林交界带和橘园中心的诱虫量和产卵痕率,建立二者在不同观测区域上的回归方程,为根据柑橘大实蝇觅食高峰期成虫发生量来预测产卵痕率,进而根据产卵痕率确定成虫期防治指标提供理论基础。【结果】除了果园周边杂树林中柑橘大实蝇觅食高峰期成虫诱捕量的线性回归与非线性回归的分析均不理想,不适宜用于产卵痕率的预测外,其他观测区域柑橘大实蝇觅食高峰期成虫诱捕量与果实产卵痕率建立的线性回归与非线性回归方程的拟合效果好,可以作为产卵痕率的预测模型。但不同区域的拟合效果存在差异,其中橘园中心成虫量与产卵痕率回归方程拟合效果(R~2=0.957 5,RMSE=1.623)最好,其他依次分别是:整个橘园成虫量(R~2=0.945 4, RMSE=1.859),全田成虫量(R~2=0.898 2,RMSE=2.535),交界带成虫量(R~2=0.851 5,RSME=3.038)。【结论】这些回归方程均能够较好的预测产卵痕率。考虑到防治需要,可以在橘园中心设置诱捕点,以觅食高峰期的成虫量(x)预测产卵痕率(y),y=0.031 3x~3-1.306 5x~2+17.206 0x-17.036,达到为柑橘大实蝇预测预报和综合防治提供理论指导的目的。
[Objectives] To provide a theoretical basis for predicting the ratio of oviposition scars, and identify adult control indicators, from adult numbers during the peak B. minax foraging period, thereby improving the ability to predict outbreaks of,and control, this pest. [Methods] Adult numbers and oviposition scars in fields, citrus orchards, hybrid forests, junction zones and the center of citrus orchards, were measured and a regression model of the relationship between adult numbers and oviposition scars in different habitats developed. [Results] With the exception of hybrid forest around citrus orchards where the relationship between adult numbers and oviposition scars was low(R~2 < 0.800 0), linear, and non-linear, regression models were able to predict the ratio of oviposition scars of B. dorsalis during the peak foraging period. However, the coefficient of determination for the ratio of oviposition scars was higher in the center of citrus orchards(R~2=0.957 5, RMSE=1.623) than in fields(R~2=0.945 4, RMSE=1.859), the junction zone between citrus orchards(R~2=0.898 2, RMSE=2.535) or hybrid forests(R~2=0.851 5, RSME=3.038). [Conclusion] The ratio of oviposition scars can be predicted from adult abundance with linear regression. Considering the need for control, a trapping point can be established in the center of citrus orchards and the ratio of oviposition scars(y) can be predicted from adult numbers during the peak foraging period using the following equation:(x),y =0.031 3 x~3 -1.306 5 x~2 +17.206 0 x -17.036.
[Objectives] To provide a theoretical basis for predicting the ratio of oviposition scars, and identify adult control indicators, from adult numbers during the peak B. minax foraging period, thereby improving the ability to predict outbreaks of,and control, this pest. [Methods] Adult numbers and oviposition scars in fields, citrus orchards, hybrid forests, junction zones and the center of citrus orchards, were measured and a regression model of the relationship between adult numbers and oviposition scars in different habitats developed. [Results] With the exception of hybrid forest around citrus orchards where the relationship between adult numbers and oviposition scars was low(R~2 < 0.800 0), linear, and non-linear, regression models were able to predict the ratio of oviposition scars of B. dorsalis during the peak foraging period. However, the coefficient of determination for the ratio of oviposition scars was higher in the center of citrus orchards(R~2=0.957 5, RMSE=1.623) than in fields(R~2=0.945 4, RMSE=1.859), the junction zone between citrus orchards(R~2=0.898 2, RMSE=2.535) or hybrid forests(R~2=0.851 5, RSME=3.038). [Conclusion] The ratio of oviposition scars can be predicted from adult abundance with linear regression. Considering the need for control, a trapping point can be established in the center of citrus orchards and the ratio of oviposition scars(y) can be predicted from adult numbers during the peak foraging period using the following equation:(x),y =0.031 3 x~3 -1.306 5 x~2 +17.206 0 x -17.036.
引文
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Liang GQ,David LH,Xu W,Liang F,1993.Notes on the dacinae of southern China(Diptera:Tephritidae).Australian Journal of.Entomology banner,2(32):137-140.
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Li ZL,2012a.Studies on spatiotemporal distribution and control of Bactrocera minax.Master dissertation.Wuhai:HuaZhong Agricultural University.[李杖黎,2012a.柑橘大实蝇成虫时空分布规律调查及防治技术研究.学位论文.武汉:华中农业大学.]
Li ZL,Guo YC,Zheng WW,Yuan JS,Qi XH,Zhang HY,2012b.Effect of the distribution of trapping point on the trapping effect of Bactrocera minax.Journal of HuaZhong Agricultural University,31(6):710-712.[李杖黎,郭元成,郑薇薇,袁建设,张宏宇,2012b.诱杀点分布对柑橘大实蝇诱杀效果的影响.华中农业大学学报,31(6):710-712.]
Li ZL,Li T,Shi ZH,Chen Z,Zhang HY,2012c.Temporal and spatial distribution and oviposition regularity of adults of Bactrocera minax.Journal of Huazhong Agricultural University,31(5):609-612.[李杖黎,李涛,石章红,陈政,张宏宇,2012c.柑橘大实蝇成虫的时空分布与产卵规律.华中农业大学学报,31(5):609-612.]
Tang S,2012.Study on system monitoring of occurrence of Bactrocera minax(Enderlein).Master dissertation.Chongqing:Southwest University.[唐松,2012.柑桔大实蝇发生的系统监测研究.学位论文.重庆:西南大学.]
Wang SQ,Zhang HY,Li ZL,2016.Small-scale spatio-temporal distribution of Bactrocera minax(Enderlein)(Diptera:Tephritidae)using probability kriging.Neotropical Entomology,45(5):453-462.
Wang XJ,Luo LY,1995.Research progress of Bactrocera minax.Entomological Knowledge,32(5):310-315.[汪兴鉴,罗禄怡,1995.桔大实蝇的研究进展.昆虫知识,32(5):310-315.]
Wang XJ,1996.A list of important pests of the genus drosophila and a key list of subgenera and species(continued).Plant Quarantine,10(3):21-30.[汪兴鉴,1996.果实蝇属重要害虫的厘订名录和分亚属及种检索表(续).植物检疫,10(3):21-30.]
Yang WS,Li CR,Lan J,An HL,2013.The diffusion pattern and history of Bactrocera minax.Journal of Yangtze University(Nat.Sci.Edit.),10(11):8-11.[杨文寿,李传仁,兰杰,安红柳,2013.柑桔大实蝇的扩散方式及扩散历史.长江大学学报(自科版),10(11):8-11.]
Zhang HY,Li HY,2018.Color Atlas for Green Controls of Citrus Diseases and Insect Pests.Beijing:China Agriculture Press.116-118.[张宏宇,李红叶,2018.柑橘病虫害绿色防控彩色图谱.北京:中国农业出版社.116-118.]
Zhang LT,Bu QJ,Yang GH,Liu XL,2007.The correct use of the mathematical statistics method in the academic papers in the field of environmental science.Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae,27(1):171-173.[张利田,卜庆杰,杨桂华,刘秀兰,2007.环境科学领域学术论文中常用数理统计方法的正确使用问题.环境科学学报,27(1):171-173.]
Hu WR,Fan L,Tian XL,Cao SY,2013.Application of excel in logistic curve fitting.Agricuiture Network Information,(3):14-16.[胡文冉,范玲,田晓莉,曹双瑜,2013.Excel在Logistic曲线拟合中的应用.农业网络信息,(3):14-16.]
Liang GQ,David LH,Xu W,Liang F,1993.Notes on the dacinae of southern China(Diptera:Tephritidae).Australian Journal of.Entomology banner,2(32):137-140.
Luo LY,Chen XF,1987.Biological characteristics of pupa to Bactrocera minax.China Citrus,1(4):9-10.[罗禄怡,陈长凤,1987.柑橘大实蝇蛹的生物学特性.中国柑橘,1(4):9-10.]
Li ZL,2012a.Studies on spatiotemporal distribution and control of Bactrocera minax.Master dissertation.Wuhai:HuaZhong Agricultural University.[李杖黎,2012a.柑橘大实蝇成虫时空分布规律调查及防治技术研究.学位论文.武汉:华中农业大学.]
Li ZL,Guo YC,Zheng WW,Yuan JS,Qi XH,Zhang HY,2012b.Effect of the distribution of trapping point on the trapping effect of Bactrocera minax.Journal of HuaZhong Agricultural University,31(6):710-712.[李杖黎,郭元成,郑薇薇,袁建设,张宏宇,2012b.诱杀点分布对柑橘大实蝇诱杀效果的影响.华中农业大学学报,31(6):710-712.]
Li ZL,Li T,Shi ZH,Chen Z,Zhang HY,2012c.Temporal and spatial distribution and oviposition regularity of adults of Bactrocera minax.Journal of Huazhong Agricultural University,31(5):609-612.[李杖黎,李涛,石章红,陈政,张宏宇,2012c.柑橘大实蝇成虫的时空分布与产卵规律.华中农业大学学报,31(5):609-612.]
Tang S,2012.Study on system monitoring of occurrence of Bactrocera minax(Enderlein).Master dissertation.Chongqing:Southwest University.[唐松,2012.柑桔大实蝇发生的系统监测研究.学位论文.重庆:西南大学.]
Wang SQ,Zhang HY,Li ZL,2016.Small-scale spatio-temporal distribution of Bactrocera minax(Enderlein)(Diptera:Tephritidae)using probability kriging.Neotropical Entomology,45(5):453-462.
Wang XJ,Luo LY,1995.Research progress of Bactrocera minax.Entomological Knowledge,32(5):310-315.[汪兴鉴,罗禄怡,1995.桔大实蝇的研究进展.昆虫知识,32(5):310-315.]
Wang XJ,1996.A list of important pests of the genus drosophila and a key list of subgenera and species(continued).Plant Quarantine,10(3):21-30.[汪兴鉴,1996.果实蝇属重要害虫的厘订名录和分亚属及种检索表(续).植物检疫,10(3):21-30.]
Yang WS,Li CR,Lan J,An HL,2013.The diffusion pattern and history of Bactrocera minax.Journal of Yangtze University(Nat.Sci.Edit.),10(11):8-11.[杨文寿,李传仁,兰杰,安红柳,2013.柑桔大实蝇的扩散方式及扩散历史.长江大学学报(自科版),10(11):8-11.]
Zhang HY,Li HY,2018.Color Atlas for Green Controls of Citrus Diseases and Insect Pests.Beijing:China Agriculture Press.116-118.[张宏宇,李红叶,2018.柑橘病虫害绿色防控彩色图谱.北京:中国农业出版社.116-118.]
Zhang LT,Bu QJ,Yang GH,Liu XL,2007.The correct use of the mathematical statistics method in the academic papers in the field of environmental science.Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae,27(1):171-173.[张利田,卜庆杰,杨桂华,刘秀兰,2007.环境科学领域学术论文中常用数理统计方法的正确使用问题.环境科学学报,27(1):171-173.]
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