财务独立董事职业背景与分析师预测准确性
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摘要
文章考察财务独立董事职业背景对分析师预测准确性的影响。基于中国A股深市上市公司2010-2016年的样本,研究发现,财务独董的职业背景对分析师预测准确性有显著影响,相对于未具有会计师事务所背景财务独董的上市公司,具有会计师事务所背景财务独董的上市公司,分析师对其盈余预测准确性更高。对会计师事务所背景独董影响分析师预测准确性内在机理的研究发现,会计师事务所背景独董通过提高信息披露质量进而提高分析师预测准确性。我们进一步分析了会计师事务所背景独董所在事务所声誉对分析师预测准确性的影响,结果发现,财务独董所在会计师事务所排名越靠前,分析师预测准确性越高。
This paper studies how the financial independent directors' professional background affects analysts' forecast accuracy. Based on Shenzhen's A shares listed companies sample during 2010-2016,the study found that professional background of financial independent directors has a significant effect on analysts' forecast accuracy. Relatively to listed companies without financial independent directors with accounting firm background,in listed companies where financial independent directors have accounting firm backgrounds,analysts are more accurate at predicting the profit and loss. Internal mechanism of the impact of independent directors with accounting firm background on analysts' predict accuracy found that independent directors with accounting firm background improved analysts' forecast accuracy by increasing the quality of information disclosure. We further analyzed whether the reputation of accounting firm influences analysts' forecast accuracy. The results show that the higher the ranking of accounting firms of financial independent directors,the higher the accuracy of analysts' forecast.
This paper studies how the financial independent directors' professional background affects analysts' forecast accuracy. Based on Shenzhen's A shares listed companies sample during 2010-2016,the study found that professional background of financial independent directors has a significant effect on analysts' forecast accuracy. Relatively to listed companies without financial independent directors with accounting firm background,in listed companies where financial independent directors have accounting firm backgrounds,analysts are more accurate at predicting the profit and loss. Internal mechanism of the impact of independent directors with accounting firm background on analysts' predict accuracy found that independent directors with accounting firm background improved analysts' forecast accuracy by increasing the quality of information disclosure. We further analyzed whether the reputation of accounting firm influences analysts' forecast accuracy. The results show that the higher the ranking of accounting firms of financial independent directors,the higher the accuracy of analysts' forecast.
引文
[1]彭真明,江华.美国独立董事制度与德国监事会制度之比较——也论中国公司治理结构模式的选择[J].法学评论,2003(1):36-42.
[2]叶康涛,祝继高,陆正飞.独立董事的独立性:基于董事会投票的证据[J].经济研究,2011,46(1):126-139.
[3]叶康涛,陆正飞,张志华.独立董事能否抑制大股东的“掏空”?[J].经济研究,2007(4):101-111.
[4]胡奕明,唐松莲.独立董事与上市公司盈余信息质量[J].管理世界,2008(9):149-160.
[5]魏刚,肖泽忠,TRAVLOS N.独立董事背景与公司经营绩效[J].经济研究,2007(3):92-105.
[6]CARTER D A,SOUZA F D,SIMKINS B J,et al.The gender and ethnic diversity of U.S.boards and board committees and firm financial performance[J].Corporate Governance:An International Review,2010,18(5):396-414.
[7]ROSENSTEIN S,WYATT J G.Outside directors,board independence and shareholder wealth[J].Journal of Financial Economics,1990,26(2):175-191.
[8]沈艺峰,王夫乐,陈维.“学院派”的力量:来自具有学术背景独立董事的经验证据[J].经济管理,2016,38(5):176-186.
[9]向锐.财务独立董事特征与会计稳健性[J].山西财经大学学报,2014,36(6):102-112.
[10]BHAT G,HOPE O K,KANG T.Does corporate governance transparency affect the accuracy of analyst forecasts?[J].Accounting and Finance,2006,46(5):715-732.
[11]LANG M H,LUNDHOLM R J.Corporate disclosure policy and analyst behavior[J].The Accounting Review,1996,71(4):467-492.
[12]王臻,杨昕.独立董事特征与上市公司信息披露质量的关系——以深证A股上市公司为例[J].上海经济研究,2010(5):54-63.
[13]KRISHNAN G V,PARSONS L M.Getting to the bottom line:An exploration of gender and earnings quality[J].Journal of Business Ethics,2008,78(1/2):65-76.
[14]胡元木,刘佩,纪端.技术独立董事能有效抑制真实盈余管理吗?——基于可操控R&D费用视角[J].会计研究,2016(3):29-35.
[15]余峰燕,郝项超.具有行政背景的独立董事影响公司财务信息质量么?——基于国有控股上市公司的实证分析[J].南开经济研究,2011(1):120-131.
[16]BéDARD J,CHTOUROU S M,COURTEAU L.The effect of audit committee expertise,independence,and activity on aggressive earnings management[J].Auditing:A Journal of Practice and Theory,2004,23(2):15-37.
[17]CARCELLO J V,NEAL T L.Audit committee characteristics and auditor dismissals following new going-concern reports[J].Accounting Review,2003,78(1):95-117.
[18]HABBASH M,XIAO LIJUAN.Are independent directors and supervisory directors effective in constraining earnings management?[J].Journal of Finance,Accounting&Management,2014,5(1):125-160.
[19]阎达五,谭劲松.我国上市公司独立董事制度:缺陷与改进[J].会计研究,2003(11):4-9.
[20]DHALIWAL D S,RADHAKRISHNAN S,TSANG A,et al.Nonfinancial disclosure and analyst forecast accuracy:international evidence on corporate social responsibility disclosure[J].The Accounting Review,2012,87(3):723-759.
[21]王跃堂.董事会独立性、股权制衡与财务信息质量[J].会计研究,2008(1):55-96.
[22]王兵.独立董事监督了吗?——基于中国上市公司盈余质量的视角[J].金融研究,2007(1):109-121.
[23]王凯,武立东,许金花.专业背景独立董事对上市公司大股东掏空行为的监督功能[J].经济管理,2016,38(11):72-91.
[24]王怀明,张惠.财务背景独立董事与会计信息质量[J].南京农业大学学报:社会科学版,2009,9(1):57-61.
[25]MCEWEN R,HUNTON J E.Is analyst forecast accuracy associated with accounting information use?[J].Accounting Horizons,1999,13(1):1-16.
[26]RAMNATH S,ROCK S,SHANE P.The financial analyst forecasting literature:A taxonomy with suggestions for further research[J].International Journal of Forecasting,2008,24(1):34-75.
[27]BYARD D,LI Y,WEINTROP J.Corporate governance and the quality of financial analysts’information[J].Journal of Accounting and Public Policy,2006,25(5):609-625.
[28]方军雄.我国上市公司信息披露透明度与证券分析师预测[J].金融研究,2007(6):136-148.
[29]张然,王会娟.本地优势、信息披露质量和分析师预测准确性[J].中国会计评论,2012,10(2):310-330.
[30]马晨,张俊瑞,李彬.财务重述对分析师预测行为的影响研究[J].数理统计与管理,2013,32(2):221-231.
[31]林小驰,欧阳婧,岳衡.谁吸引了海外证券分析师的关注[J].金融研究,2007(1):84-98.
[32]郑亚丽,蔡祥.什么影响了证券分析师盈利预测的准确度?——来自中国上市公司的经验证据[J].中大管理研究,2008,3(3):19-36.
[33]伍燕然,江婕,谢楠.公司治理、信息披露、投资者情绪与分析师盈利预测偏差[J].世界经济,2016,39(2):100-119.
[34]FAMA E,JENSEN M.The separation of ownership and control[J].Journal of Law and Economics,1983,26(2):301-325.
[35]周建,罗肖依,张双鹏.独立董事个体有效监督的形成机理——面向董事会监督有效性的理论构建[J].中国工业经济,2016(5):109-126.
[36]VAN DEN BERGHE L A,BAELDEN T.The complex relation between director independence and board effectiveness[J].Corporate Governance,2005,5(5):58-83.
[37]刘浩,唐松.独立董事:监督还是咨询?——银行背景独立董事对企业信贷融资影响研究[J].管理世界,2012(1):141-156.
[38]PFEFFER J.Size and composition of corporate boards of directors:The organization and its environment[J].Administrative Science Quarterly,1972,17(2):218-228.
[39]DALTON D R,DAILY C M,JOHNSON J L,et al.Number of directors and financial performance:A meta-analysis[J].Academy of Management Journal,1999,42(6):674-686.
[40]杜兴强,路军.董事会计师事务所工作背景与企业现金持有水平——来自中国资本市场的经验证据[J].审计与经济研究,2015,30(4):40-49.
[41]METZGER MIRIAM J.Effects of site,vendor,and consumer characteristics on web site trust and disclosure[J].Communication Research,2006,33(3):155-179.
[42]AGRAWAL A,CHADHA S,CHEN M A.Who is afraid of Reg FD?The behavior and performance of sell-side analysts following the SEC’s fair disclosure rules[J].Journal of Business,2006,79(6):2811-2834.
[43]DEANGELO L E.Auditor size and audit quality[J].Journal of Accounting&Economics,1981,3(3):183-199.
[44]邓川,高雅琴,杨文莺.CFO审计师经历、旋转门现象与会计稳健性[J].财经论丛,2017(3):71-80.
[45]BOWLIN K O,JEFFREY H,STEVEN J,et al.Experimental evidence of how prior experience as an auditor influences managers’strategic reporting decisions[J].Review of Accounting Studies,2009,14(1):63-87.
[46]黄海杰,吕长江,丁慧.独立董事声誉与盈余质量——会计专业独董的视角[J].管理世界,2016(3):128-143.
[47]LEE S,SHAILENDRA P.Equity method investments and sell-side analysts’information environment[J].Accounting Review,2013,88(6):2089-2115.
[48]何贤杰.信息源、信息搜寻与市场吸收效率——基于证券分析师盈利预测修正的经验证据[J].财经研究,2008(5):63-74.
[49]曾庆生.券商背景独立董事与上市公司内幕交易[J].财经研究,2014,40(8):67-80.
[50]EAMES M,GLOVER S.Earnings predictability and the directing of analysts’earnings forecast errors[J].The Accounting Review,2003,78(3):707-724.
[51]温忠麟,叶宝娟.中介效应分析:方法和模型发展[J].心理科学进展,2014,22(5):731-745.
[52]张学勇,何姣,陶醉.会计师事务所声誉能有效降低上市公司权益资本成本吗?[J].审计研究,2014(5):86-93.
[2]叶康涛,祝继高,陆正飞.独立董事的独立性:基于董事会投票的证据[J].经济研究,2011,46(1):126-139.
[3]叶康涛,陆正飞,张志华.独立董事能否抑制大股东的“掏空”?[J].经济研究,2007(4):101-111.
[4]胡奕明,唐松莲.独立董事与上市公司盈余信息质量[J].管理世界,2008(9):149-160.
[5]魏刚,肖泽忠,TRAVLOS N.独立董事背景与公司经营绩效[J].经济研究,2007(3):92-105.
[6]CARTER D A,SOUZA F D,SIMKINS B J,et al.The gender and ethnic diversity of U.S.boards and board committees and firm financial performance[J].Corporate Governance:An International Review,2010,18(5):396-414.
[7]ROSENSTEIN S,WYATT J G.Outside directors,board independence and shareholder wealth[J].Journal of Financial Economics,1990,26(2):175-191.
[8]沈艺峰,王夫乐,陈维.“学院派”的力量:来自具有学术背景独立董事的经验证据[J].经济管理,2016,38(5):176-186.
[9]向锐.财务独立董事特征与会计稳健性[J].山西财经大学学报,2014,36(6):102-112.
[10]BHAT G,HOPE O K,KANG T.Does corporate governance transparency affect the accuracy of analyst forecasts?[J].Accounting and Finance,2006,46(5):715-732.
[11]LANG M H,LUNDHOLM R J.Corporate disclosure policy and analyst behavior[J].The Accounting Review,1996,71(4):467-492.
[12]王臻,杨昕.独立董事特征与上市公司信息披露质量的关系——以深证A股上市公司为例[J].上海经济研究,2010(5):54-63.
[13]KRISHNAN G V,PARSONS L M.Getting to the bottom line:An exploration of gender and earnings quality[J].Journal of Business Ethics,2008,78(1/2):65-76.
[14]胡元木,刘佩,纪端.技术独立董事能有效抑制真实盈余管理吗?——基于可操控R&D费用视角[J].会计研究,2016(3):29-35.
[15]余峰燕,郝项超.具有行政背景的独立董事影响公司财务信息质量么?——基于国有控股上市公司的实证分析[J].南开经济研究,2011(1):120-131.
[16]BéDARD J,CHTOUROU S M,COURTEAU L.The effect of audit committee expertise,independence,and activity on aggressive earnings management[J].Auditing:A Journal of Practice and Theory,2004,23(2):15-37.
[17]CARCELLO J V,NEAL T L.Audit committee characteristics and auditor dismissals following new going-concern reports[J].Accounting Review,2003,78(1):95-117.
[18]HABBASH M,XIAO LIJUAN.Are independent directors and supervisory directors effective in constraining earnings management?[J].Journal of Finance,Accounting&Management,2014,5(1):125-160.
[19]阎达五,谭劲松.我国上市公司独立董事制度:缺陷与改进[J].会计研究,2003(11):4-9.
[20]DHALIWAL D S,RADHAKRISHNAN S,TSANG A,et al.Nonfinancial disclosure and analyst forecast accuracy:international evidence on corporate social responsibility disclosure[J].The Accounting Review,2012,87(3):723-759.
[21]王跃堂.董事会独立性、股权制衡与财务信息质量[J].会计研究,2008(1):55-96.
[22]王兵.独立董事监督了吗?——基于中国上市公司盈余质量的视角[J].金融研究,2007(1):109-121.
[23]王凯,武立东,许金花.专业背景独立董事对上市公司大股东掏空行为的监督功能[J].经济管理,2016,38(11):72-91.
[24]王怀明,张惠.财务背景独立董事与会计信息质量[J].南京农业大学学报:社会科学版,2009,9(1):57-61.
[25]MCEWEN R,HUNTON J E.Is analyst forecast accuracy associated with accounting information use?[J].Accounting Horizons,1999,13(1):1-16.
[26]RAMNATH S,ROCK S,SHANE P.The financial analyst forecasting literature:A taxonomy with suggestions for further research[J].International Journal of Forecasting,2008,24(1):34-75.
[27]BYARD D,LI Y,WEINTROP J.Corporate governance and the quality of financial analysts’information[J].Journal of Accounting and Public Policy,2006,25(5):609-625.
[28]方军雄.我国上市公司信息披露透明度与证券分析师预测[J].金融研究,2007(6):136-148.
[29]张然,王会娟.本地优势、信息披露质量和分析师预测准确性[J].中国会计评论,2012,10(2):310-330.
[30]马晨,张俊瑞,李彬.财务重述对分析师预测行为的影响研究[J].数理统计与管理,2013,32(2):221-231.
[31]林小驰,欧阳婧,岳衡.谁吸引了海外证券分析师的关注[J].金融研究,2007(1):84-98.
[32]郑亚丽,蔡祥.什么影响了证券分析师盈利预测的准确度?——来自中国上市公司的经验证据[J].中大管理研究,2008,3(3):19-36.
[33]伍燕然,江婕,谢楠.公司治理、信息披露、投资者情绪与分析师盈利预测偏差[J].世界经济,2016,39(2):100-119.
[34]FAMA E,JENSEN M.The separation of ownership and control[J].Journal of Law and Economics,1983,26(2):301-325.
[35]周建,罗肖依,张双鹏.独立董事个体有效监督的形成机理——面向董事会监督有效性的理论构建[J].中国工业经济,2016(5):109-126.
[36]VAN DEN BERGHE L A,BAELDEN T.The complex relation between director independence and board effectiveness[J].Corporate Governance,2005,5(5):58-83.
[37]刘浩,唐松.独立董事:监督还是咨询?——银行背景独立董事对企业信贷融资影响研究[J].管理世界,2012(1):141-156.
[38]PFEFFER J.Size and composition of corporate boards of directors:The organization and its environment[J].Administrative Science Quarterly,1972,17(2):218-228.
[39]DALTON D R,DAILY C M,JOHNSON J L,et al.Number of directors and financial performance:A meta-analysis[J].Academy of Management Journal,1999,42(6):674-686.
[40]杜兴强,路军.董事会计师事务所工作背景与企业现金持有水平——来自中国资本市场的经验证据[J].审计与经济研究,2015,30(4):40-49.
[41]METZGER MIRIAM J.Effects of site,vendor,and consumer characteristics on web site trust and disclosure[J].Communication Research,2006,33(3):155-179.
[42]AGRAWAL A,CHADHA S,CHEN M A.Who is afraid of Reg FD?The behavior and performance of sell-side analysts following the SEC’s fair disclosure rules[J].Journal of Business,2006,79(6):2811-2834.
[43]DEANGELO L E.Auditor size and audit quality[J].Journal of Accounting&Economics,1981,3(3):183-199.
[44]邓川,高雅琴,杨文莺.CFO审计师经历、旋转门现象与会计稳健性[J].财经论丛,2017(3):71-80.
[45]BOWLIN K O,JEFFREY H,STEVEN J,et al.Experimental evidence of how prior experience as an auditor influences managers’strategic reporting decisions[J].Review of Accounting Studies,2009,14(1):63-87.
[46]黄海杰,吕长江,丁慧.独立董事声誉与盈余质量——会计专业独董的视角[J].管理世界,2016(3):128-143.
[47]LEE S,SHAILENDRA P.Equity method investments and sell-side analysts’information environment[J].Accounting Review,2013,88(6):2089-2115.
[48]何贤杰.信息源、信息搜寻与市场吸收效率——基于证券分析师盈利预测修正的经验证据[J].财经研究,2008(5):63-74.
[49]曾庆生.券商背景独立董事与上市公司内幕交易[J].财经研究,2014,40(8):67-80.
[50]EAMES M,GLOVER S.Earnings predictability and the directing of analysts’earnings forecast errors[J].The Accounting Review,2003,78(3):707-724.
[51]温忠麟,叶宝娟.中介效应分析:方法和模型发展[J].心理科学进展,2014,22(5):731-745.
[52]张学勇,何姣,陶醉.会计师事务所声誉能有效降低上市公司权益资本成本吗?[J].审计研究,2014(5):86-93.
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