要素结构与技术进步方向——来自中国城市“撤县设区”的证据
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摘要
本文基于1997—2010年267个地级及以上城市市辖区面板数据,运用标准化供给面系统方法测算了市级层面的技术进步方向,并借助"撤县设区"这一自然实验,利用工具变量法实证检验了要素结构变动对技术进步方向的影响,研究发现:(1)"撤县设区"使得资本—劳动比上升,进而导致技术进步方向偏向于资本,符合偏向型技术进步的"弱诱导偏向型假说";(2)"撤县设区"对资本偏向型技术进步的影响是有条件的,主要限于资本—劳动替代弹性大于1即资本—劳动呈替代关系的地区;(3)相比于中西部地区,东部地区资本要素更为丰富,因而"撤县设区"显著提高了东部地区的资本—劳动比,使其技术进步方向偏向资本。
Based on the panel data of 267 prefecture-level cities from 1997 to 2010, this paper uses the normalized supply-side system approach to measure the technical progress direction at the municipal level.By the natural experiment of "City-County Merger", we investigate the effect of factors structure change on the direction of technical change with the instrument method.The study shows as follows: "City-County Merger" makes the capital-labor ratio rise and induces to the capital-biased technical change, which is in line with the "weak induced bias hypothesis".The effect of the "City-County Merger" on the technical progress of capital bias is conditionally limited to the area where capital-labor substitution elasticity is greater than 1 that means that capital-labor is substituted mutually.Compared to the central and western regions, "City-County Merger" significantly increases the capital-labor ratio in the eastern region due to more abundant capital, which makes the direction of technical change biased towards capital.
Based on the panel data of 267 prefecture-level cities from 1997 to 2010, this paper uses the normalized supply-side system approach to measure the technical progress direction at the municipal level.By the natural experiment of "City-County Merger", we investigate the effect of factors structure change on the direction of technical change with the instrument method.The study shows as follows: "City-County Merger" makes the capital-labor ratio rise and induces to the capital-biased technical change, which is in line with the "weak induced bias hypothesis".The effect of the "City-County Merger" on the technical progress of capital bias is conditionally limited to the area where capital-labor substitution elasticity is greater than 1 that means that capital-labor is substituted mutually.Compared to the central and western regions, "City-County Merger" significantly increases the capital-labor ratio in the eastern region due to more abundant capital, which makes the direction of technical change biased towards capital.
引文
陈晓玲、连玉君,2013:《资本—劳动替代弹性与地区经济增长——德拉格兰德维尔假说的检验》,《经济学(季刊)》第1期。
陈宇峰、贵斌威、陈启清,2013:《技术偏向与中国劳动收入份额的再考察》,《经济研究》第6期。
戴天仕、徐现祥,2010:《中国的技术进步方向》,《世界经济》第11期。
邓明,2014:《人口年龄结构与中国省际技术进步方向》,《经济研究》第3期。
高琳,2011:《快速城市化进程中的“撤县设区”:主动适应与被动调整》,《经济地理》第4期。
黄先海、徐圣,2009:《中国劳动收入比重下降成因分析——基于劳动节约型技术进步的视角》,《经济研究》第7期。
柯善咨、向娟,2012:《1996—2009 年中国城市固定资本存量估算》,《统计研究》第7期。
陆铭、高虹、佐藤宏,2012:《城市规模与包容性就业》,《中国社会科学》第10期。
潘士远,2008:《最优专利制度、技术进步方向与工资不平等》,《经济研究》第1期。
潘文卿、吴天颖、胡晓,2017:《中国技术进步方向的空间扩散效应》,《中国工业经济》第4期。
唐为、王媛,2015:《行政区划调整与人口城市化:来自撤县设区的经验证据》,《经济研究》第9期。
王贤彬、谢小平,2012:《区域市场的行政整合与经济增长》,《南方经济》第3期。
易信、刘凤良,2013:《中国技术进步偏向资本的原因探析》,《上海经济研究》第10期。
张莉、李捷瑜、徐现祥,2012:《国际贸易、偏向型技术进步与要素收入分配》,《经济学 (季刊)》第2期。
张倩、邓明,2017:《财政分权与中国地区经济增长质量》,《宏观质量研究》第3期。
张月玲、叶阿忠,2013:《中国区域技术选择与要素结构匹配差异:1996—2010》,《财经研究》第12期。
Acemoglu,D.,1998,“Why Do New Technologies Complement Skills?Directed Technical Change and Wage Inequality”,Quarterly Journal of Economics,113(4):1055-1089.
Acemoglu,D.,2002,“Directed Technical Change”,Review of Economic Studies,69(4):781-809.
Acemoglu,D.,2007,“Equilibrium Bias of Technology”,Econometrica,75 (5):1371-1409.
Acemoglu,D.,P.Aghion,L.Bursztyn,and D.Hemous,2012,“The Environment and Directed Technical Change”,American Economic Review,102(1):131-166.
Acemoglu,D.,and F.Zilibotti,2001,“Productivity Differences”,Quarterly Journal of Economics,116(2):563-606.
Aghion,P.,A.Dechezlepretre,D.Hemous,R.Martin,and J.V.Reenen,2016,“Carbon Taxes,Path Dependency,and Directed Technical Change:Evidence from the Auto Industry”,Journal of Political Economy,124(1):1-51.
Au,C.C.,and J.V.Henderson,2006,“Are Chinese Cities Too Small?”,Review of Economic Studies,73(3):549-576.
Combes,P.P.,G.Duranton,L.Gobillon,D.Puga,and S.Roux,2012,“The Productivity Advantages of Large Cities:Distinguishing Agglomeration from Firm Selection”,Econometrica,80(6):2543-2594.
Hanlon,W.W.,2015,“Necessity Is the Mother of Invention:Input Supplies and Directed Technical Change”,Econometrica,83(1):67-100.
Klump,R.,P.McAdam,and A.Willman,2007,“Factor Substitution and Factor Augmenting Technical Progress in the United States:A Normalized Supply-side System Approach”,Review of Economics and Statistics,89(1):183-192.
León-Ledesma,M.A.,P.McAdam,and A.Willman,2010,“Identifying the Elasticity of Substitution with Biased Technical Change”,American Economic Review,100(4):1330-1357.
Lewis,E.,2011,“Immigration,Skill Mix,and Capital Skill Complementarity”,Quarterly Journal of Economics,126(2):1029-1069.
Li,P.,Y.Lu,and J.Wang,2016,“Does Flattening Government Improve Economic Performance?Evidence from China”,Journal of Development Economics,123:18-37.
Popp,D.,2002,“Induced Innovation and Energy Prices”,American Economic Review,92(1):160-180.
① 结果显示“撤县设区”确实使得投资和就业增加,限于篇幅,这部分的检验结果不在正文中汇报。
① 《中国城市统计年鉴》中并没有关于市级层面劳动力受教育水平的统计变量,因此这里用在校学生的平均受教育年限来衡量人力资本水平,计算方法为:(小学在校生×6+中学在校生×10.5+大学在校生×16)/在校生总人数。
② 选择该时间跨度是因为“撤县设区”主要发生在这一阶段,2010年后也有“撤县设区”,但性质已经发生变化。
(1)基期选择在1997年并剔除了在1997就已经发生“撤县设区”的样本。
(2)比如在河南省周口地区更名为周口市的过程中,原县级市周口市变为市辖区,而县级市项城市则由省直接管辖。
(3)由于“撤县设区”主要在替代弹性大于1时有影响,所以这里仅包括替代弹性大于1的样本。
陈宇峰、贵斌威、陈启清,2013:《技术偏向与中国劳动收入份额的再考察》,《经济研究》第6期。
戴天仕、徐现祥,2010:《中国的技术进步方向》,《世界经济》第11期。
邓明,2014:《人口年龄结构与中国省际技术进步方向》,《经济研究》第3期。
高琳,2011:《快速城市化进程中的“撤县设区”:主动适应与被动调整》,《经济地理》第4期。
黄先海、徐圣,2009:《中国劳动收入比重下降成因分析——基于劳动节约型技术进步的视角》,《经济研究》第7期。
柯善咨、向娟,2012:《1996—2009 年中国城市固定资本存量估算》,《统计研究》第7期。
陆铭、高虹、佐藤宏,2012:《城市规模与包容性就业》,《中国社会科学》第10期。
潘士远,2008:《最优专利制度、技术进步方向与工资不平等》,《经济研究》第1期。
潘文卿、吴天颖、胡晓,2017:《中国技术进步方向的空间扩散效应》,《中国工业经济》第4期。
唐为、王媛,2015:《行政区划调整与人口城市化:来自撤县设区的经验证据》,《经济研究》第9期。
王贤彬、谢小平,2012:《区域市场的行政整合与经济增长》,《南方经济》第3期。
易信、刘凤良,2013:《中国技术进步偏向资本的原因探析》,《上海经济研究》第10期。
张莉、李捷瑜、徐现祥,2012:《国际贸易、偏向型技术进步与要素收入分配》,《经济学 (季刊)》第2期。
张倩、邓明,2017:《财政分权与中国地区经济增长质量》,《宏观质量研究》第3期。
张月玲、叶阿忠,2013:《中国区域技术选择与要素结构匹配差异:1996—2010》,《财经研究》第12期。
Acemoglu,D.,1998,“Why Do New Technologies Complement Skills?Directed Technical Change and Wage Inequality”,Quarterly Journal of Economics,113(4):1055-1089.
Acemoglu,D.,2002,“Directed Technical Change”,Review of Economic Studies,69(4):781-809.
Acemoglu,D.,2007,“Equilibrium Bias of Technology”,Econometrica,75 (5):1371-1409.
Acemoglu,D.,P.Aghion,L.Bursztyn,and D.Hemous,2012,“The Environment and Directed Technical Change”,American Economic Review,102(1):131-166.
Acemoglu,D.,and F.Zilibotti,2001,“Productivity Differences”,Quarterly Journal of Economics,116(2):563-606.
Aghion,P.,A.Dechezlepretre,D.Hemous,R.Martin,and J.V.Reenen,2016,“Carbon Taxes,Path Dependency,and Directed Technical Change:Evidence from the Auto Industry”,Journal of Political Economy,124(1):1-51.
Au,C.C.,and J.V.Henderson,2006,“Are Chinese Cities Too Small?”,Review of Economic Studies,73(3):549-576.
Combes,P.P.,G.Duranton,L.Gobillon,D.Puga,and S.Roux,2012,“The Productivity Advantages of Large Cities:Distinguishing Agglomeration from Firm Selection”,Econometrica,80(6):2543-2594.
Hanlon,W.W.,2015,“Necessity Is the Mother of Invention:Input Supplies and Directed Technical Change”,Econometrica,83(1):67-100.
Klump,R.,P.McAdam,and A.Willman,2007,“Factor Substitution and Factor Augmenting Technical Progress in the United States:A Normalized Supply-side System Approach”,Review of Economics and Statistics,89(1):183-192.
León-Ledesma,M.A.,P.McAdam,and A.Willman,2010,“Identifying the Elasticity of Substitution with Biased Technical Change”,American Economic Review,100(4):1330-1357.
Lewis,E.,2011,“Immigration,Skill Mix,and Capital Skill Complementarity”,Quarterly Journal of Economics,126(2):1029-1069.
Li,P.,Y.Lu,and J.Wang,2016,“Does Flattening Government Improve Economic Performance?Evidence from China”,Journal of Development Economics,123:18-37.
Popp,D.,2002,“Induced Innovation and Energy Prices”,American Economic Review,92(1):160-180.
① 结果显示“撤县设区”确实使得投资和就业增加,限于篇幅,这部分的检验结果不在正文中汇报。
① 《中国城市统计年鉴》中并没有关于市级层面劳动力受教育水平的统计变量,因此这里用在校学生的平均受教育年限来衡量人力资本水平,计算方法为:(小学在校生×6+中学在校生×10.5+大学在校生×16)/在校生总人数。
② 选择该时间跨度是因为“撤县设区”主要发生在这一阶段,2010年后也有“撤县设区”,但性质已经发生变化。
(1)基期选择在1997年并剔除了在1997就已经发生“撤县设区”的样本。
(2)比如在河南省周口地区更名为周口市的过程中,原县级市周口市变为市辖区,而县级市项城市则由省直接管辖。
(3)由于“撤县设区”主要在替代弹性大于1时有影响,所以这里仅包括替代弹性大于1的样本。
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