马来西亚第14届国会选举评析
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摘要
2018年马来西亚第14届国会选举,反对党联盟希望联盟一举拿下113个国会议席,以简单多数选票史无前例地打败了国民阵线取得执政权。2013年第13届选举结束后,马来西亚两线制发生了较大变化,最终形成了14届大选国阵和希盟对峙的多角混战局面。本届大选的选前形势、国阵与希盟的选战策略,以及大选的结果与影响呈现如下特点:大选前,国阵因为实行消费税以及一马发展公司丑闻,引起了民众的极大反感;而伊斯兰党则因为与民主行动党和人民公正党产生政见分歧以及其党内变革,在选举前退出民联独立竞选;马哈蒂尔成立国家诚信党与民行党和公正党合作,他个人也成为希盟的领袖。腐败、消费税、华文教育问题成为了本届大选两大联盟争夺的焦点,相较于以往呈现出"去种族化""去宗教化"的选战态势。在选战策略上,国阵依旧采用"恩庇政治"拉拢选民,试图用重划选区的方式扩大赢面,并利用承认统考和支持"一带一路"争取华人选票;希盟则在消费税和贪腐问题上指斥国阵,提出"百日新政",表示在执政百日内会废除消费税并彻查"一马案"。2018年5月9日,大选结果陆续公布,在222个国会议席中,希盟以获得113个国会议席的优势打败国阵和伊斯兰党,这是马来西亚独立建国以来反对阵营首次获得执政权,被称为"全民海啸"。
On the 14 th general election of Malaysia in 2018, the opposition coalition named as Pakatan Harapan(PH) won 113 parliament seats, defeating Barisan Nasional(BN) unprecedentedly to gain the power with simple majority. It breaks the authoritarian regime in Malaysia and is moving forward to democracy. After the 13 th general election, the Two-Coalition System is changed a lot, then multi-cornered confrontations between BN and PH in the GE14 formed. Here present the features on the situation before the election, the campaign policies and strategies of both BN and PH, as well the results and the influences of the election. Before the GE, BN repelled people because of the Goods and Services Tax(GST) and "1 Malaysia Development Berhad scandal"(1 MDB). Parti Islam Se Malaysia(PAS) exited Pakatan Rakyat(PR) to join the election campaign independently not only because it became dissident with Democratic Action Party(DAP) and People's Justice Party(PKR), but also the revolution in PAS. Mahathir established Parti Amanah Negara(PAN) to cooperate with DAP and PKR while he was chose to be the leader of PH. Corruption, Goods and Services Tax and Chinese education have become the issues of dispute between the two coalition in the 14 th GE. The trend of ‘de-racialization, and ‘de-religionization' is more obvious than before. About the campaign policies and strategies, BN still use "patronage politics" to gather votes, improve the electability by redistricting, recognize Unified Examination Certificate and support the "One Belt and One Road" Initiative to get Chinese's votes. PH beat back BN on the issues of GST and corruption. Mahathir Set New Course for Malaysia in First 100 Days, especially to abolish the GST and to probe the "1 MDB" case. On May 9 th, 2018, the campaign results came out successively. PH beat BN and PAS by winning 113 in 222 Congress seats as a result. It is the first case in the history of Malaysia that Opposition Coalition holds the power, which is called "The People's Tsunami".
On the 14 th general election of Malaysia in 2018, the opposition coalition named as Pakatan Harapan(PH) won 113 parliament seats, defeating Barisan Nasional(BN) unprecedentedly to gain the power with simple majority. It breaks the authoritarian regime in Malaysia and is moving forward to democracy. After the 13 th general election, the Two-Coalition System is changed a lot, then multi-cornered confrontations between BN and PH in the GE14 formed. Here present the features on the situation before the election, the campaign policies and strategies of both BN and PH, as well the results and the influences of the election. Before the GE, BN repelled people because of the Goods and Services Tax(GST) and "1 Malaysia Development Berhad scandal"(1 MDB). Parti Islam Se Malaysia(PAS) exited Pakatan Rakyat(PR) to join the election campaign independently not only because it became dissident with Democratic Action Party(DAP) and People's Justice Party(PKR), but also the revolution in PAS. Mahathir established Parti Amanah Negara(PAN) to cooperate with DAP and PKR while he was chose to be the leader of PH. Corruption, Goods and Services Tax and Chinese education have become the issues of dispute between the two coalition in the 14 th GE. The trend of ‘de-racialization, and ‘de-religionization' is more obvious than before. About the campaign policies and strategies, BN still use "patronage politics" to gather votes, improve the electability by redistricting, recognize Unified Examination Certificate and support the "One Belt and One Road" Initiative to get Chinese's votes. PH beat back BN on the issues of GST and corruption. Mahathir Set New Course for Malaysia in First 100 Days, especially to abolish the GST and to probe the "1 MDB" case. On May 9 th, 2018, the campaign results came out successively. PH beat BN and PAS by winning 113 in 222 Congress seats as a result. It is the first case in the history of Malaysia that Opposition Coalition holds the power, which is called "The People's Tsunami".
引文
(1) “National Transformation Programme Annual Report 2017”,Civil Service Delivery Unit(CSDU)Prime Minister’s Department,p2.
(2)《林立迎称3因素影响希盟可击败国阵》,《东方日报》,2018年4月15日,http://www.orientaldaily.com.my/index.php/s/239248.
(1)苏俊翔:《马来西亚选民较关心经济议题》,《联合早报》,2017年11月19日,http://www.zaobao.com.sg/realtime/world/story20171119-812242.
(2)孙和声:《再论纳吉经济学》,《东方日报》,2017年11月11日,http://www.orientaldaily.com.my/index.php/s/219942.
(3)明永昌:《马哈迪炮轰纳吉的来龙去脉》,《联合早报》,2015年5月13日,http://www.zaobao.com.sg/special/zbo/commentary/story20150513-479649.
(4)刘嘉美:《1MDB丑闻震撼国际,何以纳吉仍能安坐首相之位?》,https://theinitium.com/article/20160811-international-malaysia-1mdb-najib/.
(1)田思奇:《马来西亚大选:当92岁马哈蒂尔遇上“不肖门生”纳吉布》,《界面新闻》,2018年5月9日,https://www.jiemian.com/article/2120611.html.
(2)陈丽琳:《巫统开除3元老党籍》,《联合早报》,2018年5月5日,https://www.zaobao.com.sg/realtime/world/story20180505-856401.
(3)《伊斯兰党只不过是另一个巫统?》,The Malaysian Insight,2018年4月22日,https://www.themalaysianinsight.com/chinese/s/39139/.
(1)胡逸山:《巫统与伊党两全其美的政治结盟》,《联合早报》,2017年4月3日,https://www.zaobao.com.sg/forum/expert/oh-ei-sun/story20170403-744139.
(2)《伊斯兰党只不过是另一个巫统?》,The Malaysian Insight,2018年4月22日,https://www.themalaysianinsight.com/chinese/s/39139/.
(3)刘镇东:《第14届大选的胜败关键》,《当今大马》,2017年12月16日,https://www.malaysiakini.com/news/405650.
(4)郭伟伟:《世界主要政党规章制度文献:马来西亚》,中央编译出版社2015年版,第27~28页。
(1) Michael J.Montesano,Lee Poh Onn,2011,”Regional Outlook:Southeast Asia 2011-2012”,Institute of Southeast Asian Studies,p.49.
(2)张锡镇:《当代东南亚政治》,广西人民出版社1995年版,第150页。
(3)过去都是首相当日就宣布解散国会。
(4)《本届马国大选准备期21天历来最长》,《联合早报》,2018年4月17日,https://www.zaobao.com.sg/special/report/others/malaysia-ge2018/election-updates/story20180417-851347.
(1)星洲网:《新选区重划报告.大马半岛近60%国席大挪移》,http://www.sinchew.com.my/node/1740274/%E6%96%B0%E9%80%89%E5%8C%BA%E9%87%8D%E5%88%92%E6%8A%A5%E5%91%8A%EF%BC%8E%E5%A4%A7%E9%A9%AC%E5%8D%8A%E5%B2%9B%E8%BF%9160%E5%9B%BD%E5%B8%AD%E5%A4%A7%E6%8C%AA%E7%A7%BB.
(2)星洲网:《净选盟反对重划选区集会·8代表呈备忘录》,http://www.sinchew.com.my/node/1740412/%E5%87%80%E9%80%89%E7%9B%9F%E5%8F%8D%E5%AF%B9%E9%87%8D%E5%88%92%E9%80%89%E5%8C%BA%E9%9B%86%E4%BC%9A-%E2%80%A78%E4%BB%A3%E8%A1%A8%E5%91%88%E5%A4%87%E5%BF%98%E5%BD%95.
(3)“Tipu”为马来语,意思是“欺诈,欺骗”。
(4)黄俊南:《赢112国执政只需16.5%总得票》,《东方日报》,2018年5月8日,http://www.orientaldaily.com.my/index.php/s/242324.
(5)《希盟60项承诺勾画执政愿景,百日内落实十新政》,《当今大马》,2018年3月8日,https://www.malaysiakini.com/news/414974.
(1)同上。
(2)《承诺要点364项国阵竞选宣言主打经济》,《南洋商报》,2018年4月7日,http://www.enanyang.my/news/20180407/%E6%89%BF%E8%AF%BA%E8%A6%81%E7%82%B9364%E9%A1%B9-%E5%9B%BD%E9%98%B5%E7%AB%9E%E9%80%89%E5%AE%A3%E8%A8%80%E4%B8%BB%E6%89%93%E7%BB%8F%E6%B5%8E/.
(3)林瑞源:《恶性民粹竞争》,http://www.sinchew.com.my/node/1744198/%E6%9E%97%E7%91%9E%E6%BA%90%E2%80%A7%E6%81%B6%E6%80%A7%E6%B0%91%E7%B2%B9%E7%AB%9E%E4%BA%89.
(4)孔令龙:《大选前夕的思考:废除消费税可行吗?》,http://www.sinchew.com.my/node/1746072/%E5%AD%94%E4%BB%A4%E9%BE%99%C2%B7%E5%A4%A7%E9%80%89%E5%89%8D%E5%A4%95%E7%9A%84%E6%80%9D%E8%80%83%EF%BC%9A%E5%BA%9F%E9%99%A4%E6%B6%88%E8%B4%B9%E7%A8%8E%E5%8F%AF%E8%A1%8C%E5%90%97%EF%BC%9F.
(5)“Why Malaysia has scrapped the GST that accounted for 18%of govt’s revenue”,Business Today,https://www.businesstoday.in/current/world/why-new-malaysian-govt-scrapped-gst-that-accounted-for-18pc-ofrevenue/story/277131.html.
(1)吴阳煜:《马来西亚全民海啸是如何发生的》,《南风窗》,2018年第11期。
(2)廖勤:《在野党60年后翻盘,马来西亚变天胜在“王牌”还是败于“毒药”?》,https://www.jfdaily.com/news/detail?id=89010.
(3)丘光耀:《大好大坏的“明日之后”》,《东方日报》,2017年5月26日,http://www.orientaldaily.com.my/index.php/s/198181.
(1)范晓琪:《世俗与神权的博弈》,《联合早报》,2017年10月8日,https://www.zaobao.com.sg/zopinions/opinions/story20171008-801316.
(2)星洲网:《国阵青年团公布8大选举承诺:资助年轻人举办婚礼》,http://www.sinchew.com.my/node/1744546/%E5%9B%BD%E9%98%B5%E9%9D%92%E5%B9%B4%E5%9B%A2%E5%85%AC%E5%B8%838%E5%A4%A7%E9%80%89%E4%B8%BE%E6%89%BF%E8%AF%BA%EF%BC%9A%E8%B5%84%E5%8A%A9%E5%B9%B4%E8%BD%BB%E4%BA%BA%E4%B8%BE%E5%8A%9E%E5%A9%9A%E7%A4%BC.
(3)《希盟青年团欲吸引年轻选民推5大承诺10项焦点政策》,《东方日报》,2018年1月7日,http://www.orientaldaily.com.my/index.php/s/227013.
(4) Mayuri Mei Lin:《从巫族到华族那些不欲投票的大马青年》,http://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/simp/world-44036115.
(1)《历届大选首次国阵宣言承认统考》,《南洋商报》,2018年4月7日,http://www.enanyang.my/ne ws/20180407/%e5%8e%86%e5%b1%8a%e5%a4%a7%e9%80%89%e9%a6%96%e6%ac%a1br-%e5%9b%bd%e9%98%b5%e5%ae%a3%e8%a8%80%e6%89%bf%e8%ae%a4%e7%bb%9f%e8%80%83/.
(2)范晓琪,涂健强:《国阵竞选宣言首次提及统考分析员:无法拉走希盟华族选票》,《联合早报》,2018年4月8日,https://www.zaobao.com.sg/special/report/others/malaysia-ge2018/election-updates/story20180408-849028.
(3)大马在线:《国阵大选宣言承认统考文凭民众:看不见诚意》,https://themalaysiaonline.com/zh/news/7315.
(4)路禾,杜晋轩:《从中资争议看马来西亚华人族群政治的囹圄》http://news.dwnews.com/global/news/2018-05-06/60056153_all.html.
(5)同上。
(1)“Najib confident BN can win big in GE14”,Malaysiakini,https://www.malaysiakini.com/news/423296.
(2) James Chin,“Najib set to strengthen grip on power”,East Asia Forum,http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2017/12/12/najib-set-to-strengthen-grip-on-power/.
(3)苏俊翔:《马国官方民调:国阵领先反对党五个百分点》,《联合早报》,2018年3月24日,https://www.zaobao.com.sg/special/report/others/malaysia-ge2018/election-updates/story20180324-845233.
(4)《霹州成功变天!2巫統议员跳槽希盟》,《东方日报》,2018年5月12日,http://www.orientaldaily.com.my/index.php/s/242972.
(1)星洲网:《沙菲益宣誓为沙巴首长》,http://www.sinchew.com.my/node/1755188/%E6%B2%99%E8%8F%B2%E7%9B%8A%E5%AE%A3%E8%AA%93%E4%B8%BA%E6%B2%99%E5%B7%B4%E9%A6%96%E9%95%BF.
(2)《廖中莱蔡智勇等巨头失利马华国会输剩一席》,《联合早报》,2018年5月10日,https://www.zaobao.com.sg/special/report/politic/mypol/story20180510-857668.
(1)《受访学者:马国一夜变天马哈迪效应是最大助力》,《联合晚报》,2018年5月10日,https://www.zaobao.com.sg/special/report/others/malaysia-ge2018/analysis/story20180510-857847.
(2)黄飞:《老马识途:大选后马来西亚的可能走向》,《第一财经日报》,2018年5月15日,http://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2018-05-15/doc-ihapkuvk8529949.shtml.
(3)吴阳煜:《马来西亚全民海啸是如何发生的》,《南风窗》,2018年第11期。
(2)《林立迎称3因素影响希盟可击败国阵》,《东方日报》,2018年4月15日,http://www.orientaldaily.com.my/index.php/s/239248.
(1)苏俊翔:《马来西亚选民较关心经济议题》,《联合早报》,2017年11月19日,http://www.zaobao.com.sg/realtime/world/story20171119-812242.
(2)孙和声:《再论纳吉经济学》,《东方日报》,2017年11月11日,http://www.orientaldaily.com.my/index.php/s/219942.
(3)明永昌:《马哈迪炮轰纳吉的来龙去脉》,《联合早报》,2015年5月13日,http://www.zaobao.com.sg/special/zbo/commentary/story20150513-479649.
(4)刘嘉美:《1MDB丑闻震撼国际,何以纳吉仍能安坐首相之位?》,https://theinitium.com/article/20160811-international-malaysia-1mdb-najib/.
(1)田思奇:《马来西亚大选:当92岁马哈蒂尔遇上“不肖门生”纳吉布》,《界面新闻》,2018年5月9日,https://www.jiemian.com/article/2120611.html.
(2)陈丽琳:《巫统开除3元老党籍》,《联合早报》,2018年5月5日,https://www.zaobao.com.sg/realtime/world/story20180505-856401.
(3)《伊斯兰党只不过是另一个巫统?》,The Malaysian Insight,2018年4月22日,https://www.themalaysianinsight.com/chinese/s/39139/.
(1)胡逸山:《巫统与伊党两全其美的政治结盟》,《联合早报》,2017年4月3日,https://www.zaobao.com.sg/forum/expert/oh-ei-sun/story20170403-744139.
(2)《伊斯兰党只不过是另一个巫统?》,The Malaysian Insight,2018年4月22日,https://www.themalaysianinsight.com/chinese/s/39139/.
(3)刘镇东:《第14届大选的胜败关键》,《当今大马》,2017年12月16日,https://www.malaysiakini.com/news/405650.
(4)郭伟伟:《世界主要政党规章制度文献:马来西亚》,中央编译出版社2015年版,第27~28页。
(1) Michael J.Montesano,Lee Poh Onn,2011,”Regional Outlook:Southeast Asia 2011-2012”,Institute of Southeast Asian Studies,p.49.
(2)张锡镇:《当代东南亚政治》,广西人民出版社1995年版,第150页。
(3)过去都是首相当日就宣布解散国会。
(4)《本届马国大选准备期21天历来最长》,《联合早报》,2018年4月17日,https://www.zaobao.com.sg/special/report/others/malaysia-ge2018/election-updates/story20180417-851347.
(1)星洲网:《新选区重划报告.大马半岛近60%国席大挪移》,http://www.sinchew.com.my/node/1740274/%E6%96%B0%E9%80%89%E5%8C%BA%E9%87%8D%E5%88%92%E6%8A%A5%E5%91%8A%EF%BC%8E%E5%A4%A7%E9%A9%AC%E5%8D%8A%E5%B2%9B%E8%BF%9160%E5%9B%BD%E5%B8%AD%E5%A4%A7%E6%8C%AA%E7%A7%BB.
(2)星洲网:《净选盟反对重划选区集会·8代表呈备忘录》,http://www.sinchew.com.my/node/1740412/%E5%87%80%E9%80%89%E7%9B%9F%E5%8F%8D%E5%AF%B9%E9%87%8D%E5%88%92%E9%80%89%E5%8C%BA%E9%9B%86%E4%BC%9A-%E2%80%A78%E4%BB%A3%E8%A1%A8%E5%91%88%E5%A4%87%E5%BF%98%E5%BD%95.
(3)“Tipu”为马来语,意思是“欺诈,欺骗”。
(4)黄俊南:《赢112国执政只需16.5%总得票》,《东方日报》,2018年5月8日,http://www.orientaldaily.com.my/index.php/s/242324.
(5)《希盟60项承诺勾画执政愿景,百日内落实十新政》,《当今大马》,2018年3月8日,https://www.malaysiakini.com/news/414974.
(1)同上。
(2)《承诺要点364项国阵竞选宣言主打经济》,《南洋商报》,2018年4月7日,http://www.enanyang.my/news/20180407/%E6%89%BF%E8%AF%BA%E8%A6%81%E7%82%B9364%E9%A1%B9-%E5%9B%BD%E9%98%B5%E7%AB%9E%E9%80%89%E5%AE%A3%E8%A8%80%E4%B8%BB%E6%89%93%E7%BB%8F%E6%B5%8E/.
(3)林瑞源:《恶性民粹竞争》,http://www.sinchew.com.my/node/1744198/%E6%9E%97%E7%91%9E%E6%BA%90%E2%80%A7%E6%81%B6%E6%80%A7%E6%B0%91%E7%B2%B9%E7%AB%9E%E4%BA%89.
(4)孔令龙:《大选前夕的思考:废除消费税可行吗?》,http://www.sinchew.com.my/node/1746072/%E5%AD%94%E4%BB%A4%E9%BE%99%C2%B7%E5%A4%A7%E9%80%89%E5%89%8D%E5%A4%95%E7%9A%84%E6%80%9D%E8%80%83%EF%BC%9A%E5%BA%9F%E9%99%A4%E6%B6%88%E8%B4%B9%E7%A8%8E%E5%8F%AF%E8%A1%8C%E5%90%97%EF%BC%9F.
(5)“Why Malaysia has scrapped the GST that accounted for 18%of govt’s revenue”,Business Today,https://www.businesstoday.in/current/world/why-new-malaysian-govt-scrapped-gst-that-accounted-for-18pc-ofrevenue/story/277131.html.
(1)吴阳煜:《马来西亚全民海啸是如何发生的》,《南风窗》,2018年第11期。
(2)廖勤:《在野党60年后翻盘,马来西亚变天胜在“王牌”还是败于“毒药”?》,https://www.jfdaily.com/news/detail?id=89010.
(3)丘光耀:《大好大坏的“明日之后”》,《东方日报》,2017年5月26日,http://www.orientaldaily.com.my/index.php/s/198181.
(1)范晓琪:《世俗与神权的博弈》,《联合早报》,2017年10月8日,https://www.zaobao.com.sg/zopinions/opinions/story20171008-801316.
(2)星洲网:《国阵青年团公布8大选举承诺:资助年轻人举办婚礼》,http://www.sinchew.com.my/node/1744546/%E5%9B%BD%E9%98%B5%E9%9D%92%E5%B9%B4%E5%9B%A2%E5%85%AC%E5%B8%838%E5%A4%A7%E9%80%89%E4%B8%BE%E6%89%BF%E8%AF%BA%EF%BC%9A%E8%B5%84%E5%8A%A9%E5%B9%B4%E8%BD%BB%E4%BA%BA%E4%B8%BE%E5%8A%9E%E5%A9%9A%E7%A4%BC.
(3)《希盟青年团欲吸引年轻选民推5大承诺10项焦点政策》,《东方日报》,2018年1月7日,http://www.orientaldaily.com.my/index.php/s/227013.
(4) Mayuri Mei Lin:《从巫族到华族那些不欲投票的大马青年》,http://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/simp/world-44036115.
(1)《历届大选首次国阵宣言承认统考》,《南洋商报》,2018年4月7日,http://www.enanyang.my/ne ws/20180407/%e5%8e%86%e5%b1%8a%e5%a4%a7%e9%80%89%e9%a6%96%e6%ac%a1br-%e5%9b%bd%e9%98%b5%e5%ae%a3%e8%a8%80%e6%89%bf%e8%ae%a4%e7%bb%9f%e8%80%83/.
(2)范晓琪,涂健强:《国阵竞选宣言首次提及统考分析员:无法拉走希盟华族选票》,《联合早报》,2018年4月8日,https://www.zaobao.com.sg/special/report/others/malaysia-ge2018/election-updates/story20180408-849028.
(3)大马在线:《国阵大选宣言承认统考文凭民众:看不见诚意》,https://themalaysiaonline.com/zh/news/7315.
(4)路禾,杜晋轩:《从中资争议看马来西亚华人族群政治的囹圄》http://news.dwnews.com/global/news/2018-05-06/60056153_all.html.
(5)同上。
(1)“Najib confident BN can win big in GE14”,Malaysiakini,https://www.malaysiakini.com/news/423296.
(2) James Chin,“Najib set to strengthen grip on power”,East Asia Forum,http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2017/12/12/najib-set-to-strengthen-grip-on-power/.
(3)苏俊翔:《马国官方民调:国阵领先反对党五个百分点》,《联合早报》,2018年3月24日,https://www.zaobao.com.sg/special/report/others/malaysia-ge2018/election-updates/story20180324-845233.
(4)《霹州成功变天!2巫統议员跳槽希盟》,《东方日报》,2018年5月12日,http://www.orientaldaily.com.my/index.php/s/242972.
(1)星洲网:《沙菲益宣誓为沙巴首长》,http://www.sinchew.com.my/node/1755188/%E6%B2%99%E8%8F%B2%E7%9B%8A%E5%AE%A3%E8%AA%93%E4%B8%BA%E6%B2%99%E5%B7%B4%E9%A6%96%E9%95%BF.
(2)《廖中莱蔡智勇等巨头失利马华国会输剩一席》,《联合早报》,2018年5月10日,https://www.zaobao.com.sg/special/report/politic/mypol/story20180510-857668.
(1)《受访学者:马国一夜变天马哈迪效应是最大助力》,《联合晚报》,2018年5月10日,https://www.zaobao.com.sg/special/report/others/malaysia-ge2018/analysis/story20180510-857847.
(2)黄飞:《老马识途:大选后马来西亚的可能走向》,《第一财经日报》,2018年5月15日,http://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2018-05-15/doc-ihapkuvk8529949.shtml.
(3)吴阳煜:《马来西亚全民海啸是如何发生的》,《南风窗》,2018年第11期。
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