显式统计预警模型下地质灾害预警方法及应用
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摘要
以第2代显式统计预警模型为基础,针对中山市地质条件及降雨情况,构建了满足该地区需求的统计预警模型。在此基础上叠加了地质灾害易发分区图,同时在模型计算过程中,对高程低于10 m的平原地区直接判定为无风险,减少了数据运算,实现了研究区更为精准、单元尺度更小的地质灾害分级预警。与中山市以往采用的单点监测预警效果相比,该模型针对不同的地形地貌进行分区,逐一构建小区域预警模型,得出了地质灾害预警分级图。实践表明,所提出的区域性预警方法较先前的单点预警方法定位更准确,预警等级表现更直观。
On the basis of the second generation explicit statistical early warning model, based on the geological conditions and rainfall conditions of Zhongshan, a statistical early warning model for the area is constructed. On this basis, the zoning map of geological hazard is superimposed. At the same time, the plain area with elevation less than 10 meters is directly judged as no risk in the calculation process, so that it can reduce the amount of calculation and realize the more precise geological hazard warning in the study area. Compared with the early warning method of single point installation monitoring equipment in Zhongshan, the research area is divided into some small regions according to different terrain and geomorphology, and then the early warning formula of each region is derived. Finally, the early warning map of geological hazards is obtained by combining different regional formulas and geological hazard prone zoning maps. The experiment shows that the regional early warning method can be more accurate in positioning than the previous method, and the levels of early warning become more intuitive.
On the basis of the second generation explicit statistical early warning model, based on the geological conditions and rainfall conditions of Zhongshan, a statistical early warning model for the area is constructed. On this basis, the zoning map of geological hazard is superimposed. At the same time, the plain area with elevation less than 10 meters is directly judged as no risk in the calculation process, so that it can reduce the amount of calculation and realize the more precise geological hazard warning in the study area. Compared with the early warning method of single point installation monitoring equipment in Zhongshan, the research area is divided into some small regions according to different terrain and geomorphology, and then the early warning formula of each region is derived. Finally, the early warning map of geological hazards is obtained by combining different regional formulas and geological hazard prone zoning maps. The experiment shows that the regional early warning method can be more accurate in positioning than the previous method, and the levels of early warning become more intuitive.
引文
[1] Liu Yanhui,Liu Chuanzheng,Wen Mingsheng,et al.Study of Early Warning Models for Regional Geo-hazards in China [J].Journal of Engineering Geology,2015,23(4):738-746(刘艳辉,刘传正,温铭生,等.中国地质灾害气象预警模型研究[J].工程地质学报,2015,23(4):738-746)
[2] Wang Weidong,Chen Yanping,Zhong Sheng.Landslides Susceptibility Mapped with CF and Logistic Regression Model[J].Journal of Central South University (Science and Technology),2009,40(4):1 127-1 133(王卫东,陈燕萍,钟晟.应用 CF 和 Logistic 回归模型编制滑坡危性区划图[J].中南大学学报(自然科学版),2009,40(4):1 127-1 133)
[3] Wei Pingxin,Yang Senlin.Realization and Significance of Early-Warning of Geo-hazard in Short-Time Meteorology in Guangdong[J].Journal of Geological Hazards and Environment Preservation,2011,22(2):54-59(魏平新,杨森林.广东省短时气象地质灾害预警的实现及意义[J].地质灾害与环境保护,2011,22(2):54-59)
[4] Wu Xueling,Shen Shaoqing,Niu Ruiqing.Landslide Susceptibility Prediction Using GIS and PSO-SVM[J].Geomatics and Information Science of Wuhan University,2016,41(5):665-671(武雪玲,沈少青,牛瑞卿.GIS支持下应用PSO-SVM模型预测滑坡易发性[J].武汉大学学报·信息科学版,2016,41(5):665-671)
[5] Zhang Lu,Liao Mingsheng,Dong Jie,et al.Early Detection of Landslide Hazards in Mountainous Areas of West China Using Time Series SAR Interferometry—A Case Study of Danba,Sichuan[J].Geomatics and Information Science of Wuhan University,2018,43(12):2 040-2 049(张路,廖明生,董杰,等.基于时间序列InSAR分析的西部山区滑坡灾害隐患早期识别——以四川丹巴为例[J].武汉大学学报·信息科学版,2018,43(12):2 040-2 049)
[6] Hu Shengwu,Wang Yuhong.GIS Dynamic Risk Assessment of Geological Disasters Based on Event Tree Analysis and Fuzzy Theory[J].Geomatics and Information Science of Wuhan University,2015,40(7):983-989(胡圣武,王育红.基于事件树和模糊理论的GIS动态地质灾害评估[J].武汉大学学报·信息科学版,2015,40(7):983-989)
[7] Liu Xiaohui,Wu Xincai,Luo Xiangang.Object-Oriented Geological Disaster Data Model and Spatio-Temporal Process Expression[J].Geomatics and Information Science of Wuhan University,2013,38(8):958-962(刘晓慧,吴信才,罗显刚.面向对象的地质灾害数据模型与时空过程表达[J].武汉大学学报·信息科学版,2013,38(8):958-962)
[8] Glade T,Crozier M,Smith P.Applying Probability Determination to Refine Landslide-Triggering Rainfall Thresholds Using an Empirical “Antecedent Daily Rainfall Model”[J].Pure and Applied Geophysics,2000,157(6-8):1 059-1 079
[9] Pedrozzi G.Triggering of Landslides in Canton Ticino (Switzerland) and Prediction by the Rainfall Intensity and Duration Method[J].Bulletin of Engineering Geology and the Environment,2004,63(4):281-291
[10] Convertino M,Troccoli A,Catani F.Detecting Fingerprints of Landslide Drivers:A MaxEnt Model[J].Journal of Geophysical Research:Earth Surface,2013,118(3):1 367-1 386
[11] Liu Yanhui,Liu Chuanzheng,Tang Can,et al.CF-Based Multi-factor Overlay Method to Determine Weights of the Factors for Geo-hazards[J].The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control,2015,26(1):92-97(刘艳辉,刘传正,唐灿,等.基于确定性系数模型的地质灾害多因子权重计算方法[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2015,26(1):92-97)
[12] Shortliffe E H,Buchanan G G.A Model of Inexact Reasoning in Medicine[J].Mathematical Biosciences,1975,23(3-4):351-379
[13] Heckerman D,Geiger D,Chickering D M.Learning Bayesian Networks:The combination of Knowledge and Statistical Data[J].Machine Learning,1995,20(3):197-243
[14] Lan Hengxing,Wu Faquan,Zhou Chenghu,et al.Analysis on Susceptibility of GIS Based Landside Triggering Factors in Yunnan Xiaojiang Watershed[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2002,21(10):1 500-1 506(兰恒星,伍法权,周成虎,等.基于GIS的云南小江流域滑坡因子敏感性分析[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2002,21(10):1 500-1 506)
[15] Feng Hangjian,Zhou Aiguo,Tang Xiaoming,et al.Susceptibility Analysis of Factors Controlling Rainfall-Triggered Landslides Using Certainty Factor Method[J].Journal of Engineering Geology,2017,25(2):436-446(冯杭建,周爱国,唐小明,等.基于确定性系数的降雨型滑坡影响因子敏感性分析[J].工程地质学报,2017,25(2):436-446)
[16] Liu Chuanzheng,Li Tiefeng,Cheng Lingpeng,et al.A Method by to Analyse Four Parameters for Assessment and Early Warning on the Regional Geo-hazards[J].Hydrogeology and Engineering Geology,2004,31(4):1-8(刘传正,李铁锋,程凌鹏,等.区域地质灾害评价预警的递进分析理论与方法[J].水文地质工程地质,2004,31(4):1-8)
[17] Li Yunjun,Liu Zhihong,Lv Yuanyang,et al.Establishment and Validation of a Meteorological Warning Model for Landslide Hazards in Sichuan Province[J].Journal of Geo-information Science,2017,19(7):941-949(李云君,刘志红,吕远洋,等.四川省滑坡灾害气象预警模型建立与验证[J].地球信息科学学报,2017,19(7):941-949)
[18] Liu Chuanzheng,Liu Yanhui.Early Warning Theory for Regional Geo-hazards and Design of Explicit Statistical System[J].Hydrogeology and Engineering Geology,2007,34(6):109-115,125(刘传正,刘艳辉.地质灾害区域预警原理与显式预警系统设计研究[J].水文地质工程地质,2007,34(6):109-115,125)
[19] Xiao Tong.GIS-Based Research on Spatial Simulation of Landslide in Lanzhou[D].Gansu:Lanzhou University,2007(肖桐.基于GIS的兰州市滑坡空间模拟研究[D].甘肃:兰州大学,2007)
[20] Liu Yanhui,Liu Chuanzheng,Lian Jianfa,et al.Method of Regional Early Warning of Geohazards Based on the Explicit Statistical Theory[J].Geology in China,2008,35(2):344-350(刘艳辉,刘传正,连建发,等.基于显式统计原理的地质灾害区域预警方法初步研究[J].中国地质,2008,35(2):344-350)
[21] Wang Shuang,Wang Qing,Si Ai,et al.Transforming Normal Height with Elevation Fitting Using Global Positioning System in Gravity Exploration[J].Geological Survey and Research,2012,35(3):207-209(王爽,王晴,斯蔼,等.基于 GIS的天津市突发性地质灾害预警预报系统设计与实现[J].地质调查与研究,2012,35(3):207-209)
[22] Tang Chuan,Ma Guochao.Small Regional Geohazards Susceptibility Mapping Based on Geomorphic Unit[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,2015,35(1):91-98(唐川,马国超.基于地貌单元的小区域地质灾害易发性分区方法研究[J].地理科学,2015,35(1):91-98)
[23] Cigna F,Tapete D,Lee K.Geological Hazards in the UNESCO World Heritage Sites of the UK:From the Global to the Local Scale Perspective[J].Earth-Science Reviews,2018,176:166-194
[24] Li Yumei,Di Jingyue,Xu Fengwen,et al.A Risk Warning Method Based on the Intraday Critical Precipitation for National Geological Disaster[J].Advances in Meteorological Science and Technology,2018,8(3):77-83(李宇梅,狄靖月,许凤雯,等.基于当日临界雨量的国家级地质灾害风险预警方法[J].气象科技进展,2018,8(3):77-83)
[25] Xu Yongqiang,Ma Juan.Dynamic Monitoring and Early Warning System of Geo-hazards Based on the Technology of Internet of Things [J].The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control,2013,24(3):90-93(徐永强,马娟.基于物联网技术的地质灾害动态监测预警体系及其架构[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2013,24(3):90-93)
[26] Liang Run’e,Li Zhongshe,Miao Gaojian,et al.Current Situation and Prospect of Regional Geo-hazards Meteorological Early Warning Model[J].Safety and Environmental Engineering,2013,22 (1):30-34(梁润娥,李中社,苗高建,等.区域地质灾害气象预警模型研究现状与展望[J].安全与环境工程,2013,22(1):30-34)
[2] Wang Weidong,Chen Yanping,Zhong Sheng.Landslides Susceptibility Mapped with CF and Logistic Regression Model[J].Journal of Central South University (Science and Technology),2009,40(4):1 127-1 133(王卫东,陈燕萍,钟晟.应用 CF 和 Logistic 回归模型编制滑坡危性区划图[J].中南大学学报(自然科学版),2009,40(4):1 127-1 133)
[3] Wei Pingxin,Yang Senlin.Realization and Significance of Early-Warning of Geo-hazard in Short-Time Meteorology in Guangdong[J].Journal of Geological Hazards and Environment Preservation,2011,22(2):54-59(魏平新,杨森林.广东省短时气象地质灾害预警的实现及意义[J].地质灾害与环境保护,2011,22(2):54-59)
[4] Wu Xueling,Shen Shaoqing,Niu Ruiqing.Landslide Susceptibility Prediction Using GIS and PSO-SVM[J].Geomatics and Information Science of Wuhan University,2016,41(5):665-671(武雪玲,沈少青,牛瑞卿.GIS支持下应用PSO-SVM模型预测滑坡易发性[J].武汉大学学报·信息科学版,2016,41(5):665-671)
[5] Zhang Lu,Liao Mingsheng,Dong Jie,et al.Early Detection of Landslide Hazards in Mountainous Areas of West China Using Time Series SAR Interferometry—A Case Study of Danba,Sichuan[J].Geomatics and Information Science of Wuhan University,2018,43(12):2 040-2 049(张路,廖明生,董杰,等.基于时间序列InSAR分析的西部山区滑坡灾害隐患早期识别——以四川丹巴为例[J].武汉大学学报·信息科学版,2018,43(12):2 040-2 049)
[6] Hu Shengwu,Wang Yuhong.GIS Dynamic Risk Assessment of Geological Disasters Based on Event Tree Analysis and Fuzzy Theory[J].Geomatics and Information Science of Wuhan University,2015,40(7):983-989(胡圣武,王育红.基于事件树和模糊理论的GIS动态地质灾害评估[J].武汉大学学报·信息科学版,2015,40(7):983-989)
[7] Liu Xiaohui,Wu Xincai,Luo Xiangang.Object-Oriented Geological Disaster Data Model and Spatio-Temporal Process Expression[J].Geomatics and Information Science of Wuhan University,2013,38(8):958-962(刘晓慧,吴信才,罗显刚.面向对象的地质灾害数据模型与时空过程表达[J].武汉大学学报·信息科学版,2013,38(8):958-962)
[8] Glade T,Crozier M,Smith P.Applying Probability Determination to Refine Landslide-Triggering Rainfall Thresholds Using an Empirical “Antecedent Daily Rainfall Model”[J].Pure and Applied Geophysics,2000,157(6-8):1 059-1 079
[9] Pedrozzi G.Triggering of Landslides in Canton Ticino (Switzerland) and Prediction by the Rainfall Intensity and Duration Method[J].Bulletin of Engineering Geology and the Environment,2004,63(4):281-291
[10] Convertino M,Troccoli A,Catani F.Detecting Fingerprints of Landslide Drivers:A MaxEnt Model[J].Journal of Geophysical Research:Earth Surface,2013,118(3):1 367-1 386
[11] Liu Yanhui,Liu Chuanzheng,Tang Can,et al.CF-Based Multi-factor Overlay Method to Determine Weights of the Factors for Geo-hazards[J].The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control,2015,26(1):92-97(刘艳辉,刘传正,唐灿,等.基于确定性系数模型的地质灾害多因子权重计算方法[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2015,26(1):92-97)
[12] Shortliffe E H,Buchanan G G.A Model of Inexact Reasoning in Medicine[J].Mathematical Biosciences,1975,23(3-4):351-379
[13] Heckerman D,Geiger D,Chickering D M.Learning Bayesian Networks:The combination of Knowledge and Statistical Data[J].Machine Learning,1995,20(3):197-243
[14] Lan Hengxing,Wu Faquan,Zhou Chenghu,et al.Analysis on Susceptibility of GIS Based Landside Triggering Factors in Yunnan Xiaojiang Watershed[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2002,21(10):1 500-1 506(兰恒星,伍法权,周成虎,等.基于GIS的云南小江流域滑坡因子敏感性分析[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2002,21(10):1 500-1 506)
[15] Feng Hangjian,Zhou Aiguo,Tang Xiaoming,et al.Susceptibility Analysis of Factors Controlling Rainfall-Triggered Landslides Using Certainty Factor Method[J].Journal of Engineering Geology,2017,25(2):436-446(冯杭建,周爱国,唐小明,等.基于确定性系数的降雨型滑坡影响因子敏感性分析[J].工程地质学报,2017,25(2):436-446)
[16] Liu Chuanzheng,Li Tiefeng,Cheng Lingpeng,et al.A Method by to Analyse Four Parameters for Assessment and Early Warning on the Regional Geo-hazards[J].Hydrogeology and Engineering Geology,2004,31(4):1-8(刘传正,李铁锋,程凌鹏,等.区域地质灾害评价预警的递进分析理论与方法[J].水文地质工程地质,2004,31(4):1-8)
[17] Li Yunjun,Liu Zhihong,Lv Yuanyang,et al.Establishment and Validation of a Meteorological Warning Model for Landslide Hazards in Sichuan Province[J].Journal of Geo-information Science,2017,19(7):941-949(李云君,刘志红,吕远洋,等.四川省滑坡灾害气象预警模型建立与验证[J].地球信息科学学报,2017,19(7):941-949)
[18] Liu Chuanzheng,Liu Yanhui.Early Warning Theory for Regional Geo-hazards and Design of Explicit Statistical System[J].Hydrogeology and Engineering Geology,2007,34(6):109-115,125(刘传正,刘艳辉.地质灾害区域预警原理与显式预警系统设计研究[J].水文地质工程地质,2007,34(6):109-115,125)
[19] Xiao Tong.GIS-Based Research on Spatial Simulation of Landslide in Lanzhou[D].Gansu:Lanzhou University,2007(肖桐.基于GIS的兰州市滑坡空间模拟研究[D].甘肃:兰州大学,2007)
[20] Liu Yanhui,Liu Chuanzheng,Lian Jianfa,et al.Method of Regional Early Warning of Geohazards Based on the Explicit Statistical Theory[J].Geology in China,2008,35(2):344-350(刘艳辉,刘传正,连建发,等.基于显式统计原理的地质灾害区域预警方法初步研究[J].中国地质,2008,35(2):344-350)
[21] Wang Shuang,Wang Qing,Si Ai,et al.Transforming Normal Height with Elevation Fitting Using Global Positioning System in Gravity Exploration[J].Geological Survey and Research,2012,35(3):207-209(王爽,王晴,斯蔼,等.基于 GIS的天津市突发性地质灾害预警预报系统设计与实现[J].地质调查与研究,2012,35(3):207-209)
[22] Tang Chuan,Ma Guochao.Small Regional Geohazards Susceptibility Mapping Based on Geomorphic Unit[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,2015,35(1):91-98(唐川,马国超.基于地貌单元的小区域地质灾害易发性分区方法研究[J].地理科学,2015,35(1):91-98)
[23] Cigna F,Tapete D,Lee K.Geological Hazards in the UNESCO World Heritage Sites of the UK:From the Global to the Local Scale Perspective[J].Earth-Science Reviews,2018,176:166-194
[24] Li Yumei,Di Jingyue,Xu Fengwen,et al.A Risk Warning Method Based on the Intraday Critical Precipitation for National Geological Disaster[J].Advances in Meteorological Science and Technology,2018,8(3):77-83(李宇梅,狄靖月,许凤雯,等.基于当日临界雨量的国家级地质灾害风险预警方法[J].气象科技进展,2018,8(3):77-83)
[25] Xu Yongqiang,Ma Juan.Dynamic Monitoring and Early Warning System of Geo-hazards Based on the Technology of Internet of Things [J].The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control,2013,24(3):90-93(徐永强,马娟.基于物联网技术的地质灾害动态监测预警体系及其架构[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2013,24(3):90-93)
[26] Liang Run’e,Li Zhongshe,Miao Gaojian,et al.Current Situation and Prospect of Regional Geo-hazards Meteorological Early Warning Model[J].Safety and Environmental Engineering,2013,22 (1):30-34(梁润娥,李中社,苗高建,等.区域地质灾害气象预警模型研究现状与展望[J].安全与环境工程,2013,22(1):30-34)
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