1951—2014年淮河流域典型等值线变化特征
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摘要
利用1951—2014年淮河流域29个站点月平均气温和月降水量数据,运用线性倾向估计、累积距平、Mann-Kendall检验及空间分析等方法,分析了1月均温和年降水量的时空变化特征.结果表明:过去64 a,1月均温呈显著升高趋势,升高速率为0.3℃/10a,1986年以后升温趋势显著,并于1973年发生升温突变;年代际方面,20世纪50年代均温最低,20世纪90年代均温最高.年降水量呈不显著减少趋势,减少速率为5.9 mm/10a;年代际降水量波动幅度不大,其中21世纪00年代平均降水量最高,21世纪10年代平均降水量最少.相较于淮河流域年均温变化,1月均温发生暖化突变时间早于年均温,说明1月均温在响应全球变暖方面更加敏感.过去64 a,1月0℃等温线和800 mm等降水量线与秦岭—淮河一线不重合,其主要原因是全球变暖导致的自然带显著北移.
Based on monthly temperature and precipitation data from 29 meteorological stations in Huaihe River Basin during 1951-2014,the spatial and temporal characteristics of January mean temperature and annual precipitation over Huaihe River Basin were studied by using linear regression,cumulative anomaly,Mann-Kendall test and spatial analysis methods. The results showed that: the January mean temperature over Huaihe River Basin presented a significant warming trend during the past 64 years,and the linear rate was 0.3 ℃/10 a. The strongest warming trend occurred since 1986,and the abruptly changed in the year 1973. At decadal time scale,the warmest decade was observed during 1990 s and the coolest decade was detected during 1950 s. The annual precipitation over Huaihe River Basin showed a moderate decreasing trend during the last 64 years,with the linear trend amounting to-5.9 mm/10 a. The lowest and highest decadal precipitation occurred in 2010 s and 2000 s,respectively. Relative to variations of annual average temperature from Huaihe River Basin,the time abrupted warming of January mean temperature was earlier,indicating that which was more susceptible than annual average temperature in response to global warming. 0 ℃ isotherm in January and 800 mm isohyets during last 64 years were located on the north side of the Huaihe River,which was not coincidence with Qinliang-Huaihe Line. The mainly reason was that natural belt remarkably northward moved because of global warming.
Based on monthly temperature and precipitation data from 29 meteorological stations in Huaihe River Basin during 1951-2014,the spatial and temporal characteristics of January mean temperature and annual precipitation over Huaihe River Basin were studied by using linear regression,cumulative anomaly,Mann-Kendall test and spatial analysis methods. The results showed that: the January mean temperature over Huaihe River Basin presented a significant warming trend during the past 64 years,and the linear rate was 0.3 ℃/10 a. The strongest warming trend occurred since 1986,and the abruptly changed in the year 1973. At decadal time scale,the warmest decade was observed during 1990 s and the coolest decade was detected during 1950 s. The annual precipitation over Huaihe River Basin showed a moderate decreasing trend during the last 64 years,with the linear trend amounting to-5.9 mm/10 a. The lowest and highest decadal precipitation occurred in 2010 s and 2000 s,respectively. Relative to variations of annual average temperature from Huaihe River Basin,the time abrupted warming of January mean temperature was earlier,indicating that which was more susceptible than annual average temperature in response to global warming. 0 ℃ isotherm in January and 800 mm isohyets during last 64 years were located on the north side of the Huaihe River,which was not coincidence with Qinliang-Huaihe Line. The mainly reason was that natural belt remarkably northward moved because of global warming.
引文
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[3]李双双,芦佳玉,延军平,等.1970-2015年秦岭南北气温时空变化及其气候分界意义[J].地理学报,2018,73(1):13-24.LI Shuangshuang,LU Jiayu,YAN Junping,et al. Spatiotemporal variability of temperature in northern and southern Qinling Mountains and its influence on climatic boundary[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica,2018,73(1):13-24.
[4]宁晓菊,秦耀辰,崔耀平,等.60年来中国农业水热气候条件的时空变化[J].地理学报,2015,70(3):364-379.NING Xiaoju,QIN Yaochen,CUI Yaoping,et al. The spatio-temporal change of agricultural hydrothermal conditions in China from 1951 to 2010[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica,2015,70(3):364-379.
[5]白红英,马新萍,高翔,等.基于DEM的秦岭山地1月气温及0℃等温线变化[J].地理学报,2012,67(11):1443-1450.BAI Hongying,MA Xinping,GAO Xiang,et al. Variations in January temperature and 0℃isothermal curve in Qinling Mountains based on DEM[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica,2012,67(11):1443-1450.
[6]卞娟娟,郝志新,郑景云,等.1951-2010年中国主要气候区划界线的移动[J].地理研究,2013,32(7):1179-1187.BIAN Juanjuan,HAO Zhixin,ZHENG Jingyun,et al. The shift on boundary of climate regionalization in China[J]. Geographical Research,2013,32(7):1179-1187.
[7]李雪萍,史兴民,王阿如娜.中国典型等降水量线年代际空间演变[J].中国沙漠,2016,36(1):232-238.LI Xueping,SHI Xingmin,WANG Aruna. The interdecadal spatial changes of typical rainfall contours in China[J]. Journal of Desert Research,2016,36(1):232-238.
[8]韩艳,赵国永,郭雪莲.1951-2014年淮河流域气温时空变化特征[J].信阳师范学院学报(自然科学版),2017,30(2):239-243.HAN Yan,ZHAO Guoyong,GUO Xuelian. Characteristic of spatial and temporal variation of average temperature in Huaihe River basin during 1951-2014[J]. Journal of Xinyang Normal University(Natural Science Edition),2017,30(2):239-243.
[9]闫军辉,刘浩龙,葛全胜,等.1906-2015年武汉市温度变化序列重建与初步分析[J].地理科学进展,2017,36(9):1176-1183.YAN Junhui,LIU Haolong,GE Quansheng,et al. Reconstruction and analysis of annual mean temperature of Wuhan for the1906-2015 period[J]. Progress in Geography,2017,36(9):1176-1183.
[10]魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M].北京:气象出版社,1999:63-72.WEI Fengying. Modern climate statistical diagnosis and prediction technology[M]. Beijing:China Meteorological Press,1999:63-72.
[11]IPCC. Climate change 2013:The physical science basis[M]. Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2013.
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