基于历史测量数据的高压电缆导体温度预测
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摘要
为了给高压电缆动态增容的实现提供理论支持,提出一种基于历史测量数据的高压电缆导体温度预测算法。在传热学理论的基础上,构建高压电缆导体温度预测计算热路模型,并基于历史实测数据实现对热路模型中环境等效热参数的计算。为验证预测算法的精确度,设计高压电缆的暂态温升实验。预测算法计算结果和实验结果对比表明,在电缆的温升过程中,预测算法的计算误差呈现先增长后下降的变化趋势,计算误差最大值不超过4.2℃,且在导体温度接近稳态时,预测算法计算结果和实测结果相差小于1.1℃,两者吻合很好。研究表明:相比于基于IEC推荐的电缆暂态热路模型的高压电缆导体温度预测算法,基于历史测量数据的高压电缆导体温度预测算法具有更高的预测精度。
To provide theoretical support for dynamic capacity increase of the high voltage cable, this paper proposes a kind of prediction algorithm for cable conductor temperature based on historical measured data. On the basis of heat transmission theory, it establishes a calculation thermal circuit model and makes calculation of equivalent heat parameter of the environment in the thermal circuit model based on historical measured data. To verify precision of the prediction algorithm, it designs transient temperature rise experiment for the high voltage cable. Comparison between results of the prediction algorithm and the experiment indicates in the process of temperature rise of the cable, calculation error of the algorithm shows a variation trend of first increasing and then decreasing and the maximum value of calculation error is less than 4.2 ℃. Meanwhile, as conductor temperature is close to steady state,discrepancy between the prediction result and the measured result is less than 1.1 ℃, which means good agreement. The research indicates that compared with the prediction algorithm for high voltage cable conductor temperature based on IEC cable transient thermal circuit model, this prediction algorithm based on historical measured data has higher prediction precision.
To provide theoretical support for dynamic capacity increase of the high voltage cable, this paper proposes a kind of prediction algorithm for cable conductor temperature based on historical measured data. On the basis of heat transmission theory, it establishes a calculation thermal circuit model and makes calculation of equivalent heat parameter of the environment in the thermal circuit model based on historical measured data. To verify precision of the prediction algorithm, it designs transient temperature rise experiment for the high voltage cable. Comparison between results of the prediction algorithm and the experiment indicates in the process of temperature rise of the cable, calculation error of the algorithm shows a variation trend of first increasing and then decreasing and the maximum value of calculation error is less than 4.2 ℃. Meanwhile, as conductor temperature is close to steady state,discrepancy between the prediction result and the measured result is less than 1.1 ℃, which means good agreement. The research indicates that compared with the prediction algorithm for high voltage cable conductor temperature based on IEC cable transient thermal circuit model, this prediction algorithm based on historical measured data has higher prediction precision.
引文
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[4]刘超,阮江军,黄道春,等.考虑接触电阻下的电缆接头热点温度[J].高电压技术,2016,42(11):3634-3640.LIU Chao,RUAN Jiangjun,HUANG Daochun,et al.Hot spot temperature of cable joint considering contact resistance[J].High Voltage Engineering,2016,42(11):3634-3640.
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[7]YOU Lei,WANG Jiang,LIU Gang,et al.Thermal rating of offshore w ind farm cables installed in ventilated J-tubes[J].Energies,2018,11(545):1-14.
[8]LI Y,WOUTERS P,WAGENAARS P,et al.Temperature dependent signal propagation velocity:possible indicator for M V cable dynamic rating[J].IEEE Trans.Diel.Elec.Insul.,2015,22(2):665-672.
[9]DIAZ-AGUILM,LEN F.Adaptive soil model for realtime thermal rating of underground pow er cables[J].IET Sci.M eas.Technol.,2015,9(6):654-660.
[10]NEHER J H,MCGRATH M H.The calculation of the temperature rise and load capacity of cable systems[C]∥AIEE Summer General M eeting.M ontreal,Quebec,Canada:[s.n.],1957:752-772.
[11]NEHER J H.The transient temperature rise of buried cable systems[C]∥The Summer General M eeting and Nuclear Radiation Effects Conference.Toronto,Ontario,Canada:[s.n.],1963:102-114.
[12]牛海清,周鑫,王晓兵,等.外皮温度监测的单芯电缆暂态温度计算与试验[J].高电压技术,2009,35(9):2138-2143.NIU Haiqing,ZHOU Xin,WANG Xiaobing,et al.Calculation and experiment of transient temperatures of single-core cables on jacket temperature monitoring[J].High Voltage Engineering,2009,35(9):2138-2143.
[13]刘刚,雷成华.刘毅钢.根据电缆表面温度推算导体温度的热路简化模型暂态误差分析[J].电网技术,2011,35(4):212-217.LIU Gang,LEI Chenghua,LIU Yigang.Analysis on transient error of simplified thermal circuit model for calculating conductor temperature by cable surface temperature[J].Pow er System Technology,2011,35(4):212-217.
[14]刘刚,雷鸣,阮班义,等.考虑轴向传热的单芯电缆线芯温度实时计算模型研究[J].高电压技术,2012,38(8):1877-1883.LIU Gang,LEI M ing,RUAN Banyi,et al.M odel research of real-time calculation for single-core cable temperature considering axial heat transfer[J].High Voltage Engineering,2012,38(8):1877-1883.
[15]赵柏山,王庆祝.高压电缆实时导体温度计算与载流量预测研究[J].电气应用,2017(3):10-15.Z HA O B aishan,W A N G Q ing z hu.Real-tim e co nducto r’s tem perature calculatio n o f hig h v o ltag e cable and predictio n pro be o f am pacity[J].Electrical A pplicatio n,2 0 1 7(3):1 0-1 5.
[16]雷鸣,刘刚,赖育庭,等.采用Laplace方法的单芯电缆线芯温度动态计算[J].高电压技术,2010,36(5):1150-1154.L EI M ing,L IU G ang,L A I Y uting,et al.D y nam ic calculatio n o f co re tem perature o f sing le co re cables using L aplace m etho d[J].Hig h V o ltag e Eng ineering,2010,36(5):1150-1154.
[17]徐涛,叶晓君,徐研,等,基于实时测量数据的电缆稳态载流量计算[J].广东电力,2017,30(7):65-69.XU Tao,YE Xiaojun,XU Yan,et al.Calculation on steadystate ampacity of cable based on real-time measured data[J].Guangdong Electric Pow er,2017,30(7):65-69.
[18]马国栋.电线电缆载流量[M].北京:中国电力出版社,2003.
[19]刘刚,王鹏宇,周凡,等.电力电缆暂态热路模型中绝缘层的优化[J].高电压技术,2018,44(5):1549-1556.LIU Gang,WANG Pengyu,ZHOU Fan,et al.Optimization on the insulating layer of transient thermal circuit model of pow er cable[J].High Voltage Engineering,2018,44(5):1549-1556.
[20]Calculation of the current rating-current rating equations(100%load factor)and calculation of losses:IEC 60287-1[S].
[21]Calculation of the current rating-thermal resistance:IEC 60287-2[S].
[22]Calculation of the current rating-sections on operating conditions:IEC 60287-3[S].
[23]Calculation of the cyclic and emergency current rating of cables:IEC 60853[S].
[24]高昇宇,李超群,王春宁,等.智能配电系统电缆导体温度推算与应急能力评估[J].电力自动化设备,2017,37(3):45-54.GAO Shengyu,LI Chaoqun,WANG chunning,et al.Cable conductor temperature calculation and emergency capability assessment for smart distribution netw ork[J].Electric Pow er Automation Equipment,2017,37(3):45-54.
[2]梁永春.高压电力电缆温度场和载流量评估研究动态[J].高电压技术,2016,42(11):3760-3765.LIANG Yongchun.Technological development in evaluating the temperature and ampacity of pow er cables[J].High Voltage Engineering,2016,42(11):3760-3765.
[3]韩卓展,刘刚,王鹏宇,等.高压电缆暂态热路中绝缘层最佳分层数的确定方法[J].广东电力,2017,30(10):28-34.HAN Zhuozhan,LIU Gang,WANG Pengyu,et al.Determination method for optimal hierarchy numbers of insulation layer in transient thermal circuit[J].Guangdong Electric Pow er,2017,30(10):28-34.
[4]刘超,阮江军,黄道春,等.考虑接触电阻下的电缆接头热点温度[J].高电压技术,2016,42(11):3634-3640.LIU Chao,RUAN Jiangjun,HUANG Daochun,et al.Hot spot temperature of cable joint considering contact resistance[J].High Voltage Engineering,2016,42(11):3634-3640.
[5]WANG Pengyu,LIU Gang,MA Hui,et al.Investigation of the ampacity of a prefabricated straight-through joint of high voltage cable[J].Energies,2017,10(2050):1-17.
[6]牛海清,余佳,郭少锋,等.考虑降雨的埋地电缆动态负载能力预测[J].南方电网技术,2018,12(1):41-47.NIU Haiqing,YU Jia,GUO Shaofeng,et al.Dynamic load capacity forecast of buried cable considering rainfall[J].Southern Pow er System Technology,2018,12(1):41-47.
[7]YOU Lei,WANG Jiang,LIU Gang,et al.Thermal rating of offshore w ind farm cables installed in ventilated J-tubes[J].Energies,2018,11(545):1-14.
[8]LI Y,WOUTERS P,WAGENAARS P,et al.Temperature dependent signal propagation velocity:possible indicator for M V cable dynamic rating[J].IEEE Trans.Diel.Elec.Insul.,2015,22(2):665-672.
[9]DIAZ-AGUILM,LEN F.Adaptive soil model for realtime thermal rating of underground pow er cables[J].IET Sci.M eas.Technol.,2015,9(6):654-660.
[10]NEHER J H,MCGRATH M H.The calculation of the temperature rise and load capacity of cable systems[C]∥AIEE Summer General M eeting.M ontreal,Quebec,Canada:[s.n.],1957:752-772.
[11]NEHER J H.The transient temperature rise of buried cable systems[C]∥The Summer General M eeting and Nuclear Radiation Effects Conference.Toronto,Ontario,Canada:[s.n.],1963:102-114.
[12]牛海清,周鑫,王晓兵,等.外皮温度监测的单芯电缆暂态温度计算与试验[J].高电压技术,2009,35(9):2138-2143.NIU Haiqing,ZHOU Xin,WANG Xiaobing,et al.Calculation and experiment of transient temperatures of single-core cables on jacket temperature monitoring[J].High Voltage Engineering,2009,35(9):2138-2143.
[13]刘刚,雷成华.刘毅钢.根据电缆表面温度推算导体温度的热路简化模型暂态误差分析[J].电网技术,2011,35(4):212-217.LIU Gang,LEI Chenghua,LIU Yigang.Analysis on transient error of simplified thermal circuit model for calculating conductor temperature by cable surface temperature[J].Pow er System Technology,2011,35(4):212-217.
[14]刘刚,雷鸣,阮班义,等.考虑轴向传热的单芯电缆线芯温度实时计算模型研究[J].高电压技术,2012,38(8):1877-1883.LIU Gang,LEI M ing,RUAN Banyi,et al.M odel research of real-time calculation for single-core cable temperature considering axial heat transfer[J].High Voltage Engineering,2012,38(8):1877-1883.
[15]赵柏山,王庆祝.高压电缆实时导体温度计算与载流量预测研究[J].电气应用,2017(3):10-15.Z HA O B aishan,W A N G Q ing z hu.Real-tim e co nducto r’s tem perature calculatio n o f hig h v o ltag e cable and predictio n pro be o f am pacity[J].Electrical A pplicatio n,2 0 1 7(3):1 0-1 5.
[16]雷鸣,刘刚,赖育庭,等.采用Laplace方法的单芯电缆线芯温度动态计算[J].高电压技术,2010,36(5):1150-1154.L EI M ing,L IU G ang,L A I Y uting,et al.D y nam ic calculatio n o f co re tem perature o f sing le co re cables using L aplace m etho d[J].Hig h V o ltag e Eng ineering,2010,36(5):1150-1154.
[17]徐涛,叶晓君,徐研,等,基于实时测量数据的电缆稳态载流量计算[J].广东电力,2017,30(7):65-69.XU Tao,YE Xiaojun,XU Yan,et al.Calculation on steadystate ampacity of cable based on real-time measured data[J].Guangdong Electric Pow er,2017,30(7):65-69.
[18]马国栋.电线电缆载流量[M].北京:中国电力出版社,2003.
[19]刘刚,王鹏宇,周凡,等.电力电缆暂态热路模型中绝缘层的优化[J].高电压技术,2018,44(5):1549-1556.LIU Gang,WANG Pengyu,ZHOU Fan,et al.Optimization on the insulating layer of transient thermal circuit model of pow er cable[J].High Voltage Engineering,2018,44(5):1549-1556.
[20]Calculation of the current rating-current rating equations(100%load factor)and calculation of losses:IEC 60287-1[S].
[21]Calculation of the current rating-thermal resistance:IEC 60287-2[S].
[22]Calculation of the current rating-sections on operating conditions:IEC 60287-3[S].
[23]Calculation of the cyclic and emergency current rating of cables:IEC 60853[S].
[24]高昇宇,李超群,王春宁,等.智能配电系统电缆导体温度推算与应急能力评估[J].电力自动化设备,2017,37(3):45-54.GAO Shengyu,LI Chaoqun,WANG chunning,et al.Cable conductor temperature calculation and emergency capability assessment for smart distribution netw ork[J].Electric Pow er Automation Equipment,2017,37(3):45-54.
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