地震预测预报研究议程的演变:文献计量分析的启示
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摘要
本文以Web of Science核心合集为文献源,分别以1960年1月1日至2017年12月31日、 1968年1月1日至2017年12月31日、 2008年1月1日至2018年9月1日三个时间段的科学文献为分析对象,借助CiteSpace软件,讨论了地震预测预报研究的发展进程,以10年为单位的研究议程的演变,以及汶川地震以来地震预测预报研究的主要领域,试图对地震预测预报研究以及相关领域发展战略研究提供一定的参考。结果显示,地震预测预报相关科技进程一直处在动态的发展中,在重大事件的推动下,每一个时间段中呈现不同的且趋向于多样化的发展趋势,同时愈来愈向着多种方法并重的更加深入和精细的阶段发展。
In this paper, using Web of Science core database as the data resource, and with CiteSpace as the analysis tool, three issues are discussed based on bibiliometrics, which are ① the development process of earthquake forecast/prediction, from January 1, 1960 to December 31, 2017, ② the decade evolution of research agenda from January 1, 1968 to December 31, 2017, and ③ the main research agenda of earthquake forecast/prediction from January 1, 2008 to September 1, 2018. These analyses could provide references for research on earthquake forecast/prediction and strageties. Our results show that the processes of research on earthquake forecast/prediction have been in dynamic development. Especially, research agenda in each period of time gradually have more diversified growing trend, and tend towards more in-depth and detailed study stage promoted by important events.
In this paper, using Web of Science core database as the data resource, and with CiteSpace as the analysis tool, three issues are discussed based on bibiliometrics, which are ① the development process of earthquake forecast/prediction, from January 1, 1960 to December 31, 2017, ② the decade evolution of research agenda from January 1, 1968 to December 31, 2017, and ③ the main research agenda of earthquake forecast/prediction from January 1, 2008 to September 1, 2018. These analyses could provide references for research on earthquake forecast/prediction and strageties. Our results show that the processes of research on earthquake forecast/prediction have been in dynamic development. Especially, research agenda in each period of time gradually have more diversified growing trend, and tend towards more in-depth and detailed study stage promoted by important events.
引文
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[2]董军.地震科学主流期刊总被引频次的分析[J].国际地震动态,2004,(增刊):102.
[3]吕金霞,王晓青.1994-2002年地震研究文献计量分析[J].地震,2004,24:131-136.
[4]于山,张玉敏,苏幼坡.《世界地震工程》被引特征的统计分析[J].世界地震工程,2005,21:159-162.
[5]吴琼.1985-2010《中国地震》载文被引分析[J].中国地震,2012,28:441-448.
[6]吴琼.1985-2010《中国地震》高被引论文分析[J].国际地震动态,2013,(5):31-38.
[7]季婉婧,王金平.基于文献计量的国际地震地质科学研究发展态势分析[J].世界科技研究与发展,2017,39:275-283.
[8]张静.引文、引文分析与学术论文评价[J].社会科学管理与评论,2008,1:33-38.
[9]邱均平.信息计量学(九)第九讲文献信息引证规律和引文分析法[J].情报理论与实践,2001,3:236-240.
[10]Chen C M.Searching for intellectual turning points:Progressive knowledge domain visualization[J].Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,2004,101:5 303-5 310.
[11]Chen C M.CiteSpace II:Detecting and visualizing emerging trends and transient patterns in scientific literature[J].Journal of the America Society for Information and Technology,2006,57:359-377.
[12]Chen C M,lbekwe-Sanjuan F,Hou J H.The structure and dynamics of cocitation clusters:A multiple-perspective cocitation analysis[J].Journal of the America Society for Information and Technology,2010,61:1 386-1 409.
[13]Chen C M.Cascading citation expansion[J].Journal of Information Science Theory and Practice,2018,6:6-23.
[14]侯建华,胡志刚.CiteSpace软件应用研究的回顾与展望[J].现代情报,2013,33:99-103.
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[19]Geller R J.Earthquake prediction:A critical review[J].Geophysical Journal International,1997,131:425-450.
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[25]吴忠良,蒋长胜.近期国际地震预测预报研究进展的几个侧面[J].中国地震,2005,21:103-112.
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[27]Sykes L R.Aftershock zones of great earthquakes,seismicity gaps,and earthquake prediction for Alaska and Aleutians[J].Journal of Geophysical Research,1971,76:8 021-8 041.
[28]Whitcomb J H,Garmany J D,Anderson D L.Earthquake prediction:variation of seismic velocities before San-Francisco earthquake[J].Science,1973,180:632-635.
[29]Bakun W H,Lindh A G.The Parkfield,California,Earthquake prediction experiment[J].Science,1985,229:619-624.
[30]Allegre C J,Lemouel J L,Provost A.Scaling rules in rock fracture and possible implications for earthquake prediction[J].Nature,1982,297:47-49.
[31]King C Y.Gas geochemistry applied to earthquake prediction:An overview[J].J Geophys Res,1986,91:2 269-2 281.
[32]Stein R S,Barka A A,Dieterich J H.Progressive failure on the North Anatolian fault since 1939by earthquake stress triggering[J].Geophys J Inter,1997,128:594-604.
[33]Lockner D.The role of acoustic-emission in the study of rock fracture[J].International Journal of Rock Mechanics and Mining Sciences,1993,30:883-899.
[34]Sornette D,Sammis C G.Complex critical exponents from renormalization-group theory of earthquake-implications for earthquake predictions[J].Journal de Physique I,1995,5:607-619.
[35]Marone C.Laboratory-derived friction laws and their application to seismic faulting[J].Aunual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences,1998,26:643-696.
[36]Toutain J P,Baubron J C.Gas geochemistry and seismotectonics:a review[J].Tectonophysics,1999,304:1-27.
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[38]Cicerone R D,Ebel J E,Britton J.A systematic compilation of earthquake precursors[J].Tectonophysics,2009,476:371-396.
[39]Uyeda S,Nagao T,Kamogawa M.Short-term earthquake prediction:Current status of seismo-electromagnetics[J].Tectonophysics,2009,470:205-213.
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[46]Werner M J,Zechar J D,Marzocchi W,et al.Retrospective evaluation of the five-year and ten-year CSEP-Italy earthquake forecasts[J].Annals of Geophysics,2010,53:11-30
[47]Priyadarshi S,Kumar S,Singh A K.Ionospheric perturbations associated with two recent major earthquakes(M>5.0)[J].Physica Scripta,2011,84(4):1-12.
[48]Potirakis S M,Contoyiannis Y,Asano T,et al.Intermittency-induced criticality in the lower ionosphere prior to the 2016Kumamoto earthquakes as embedded in the vlf propagation data observed at multiple stations[J].Tectonophysics,2018a,722:422-431.
[49]Potirakis S M,Asano T,Hayakawa M.Criticality analysis of the lower ionosphere perturbations prior to the 2016Kumamoto(Japan)earthquakes as based on vlf electromagnetic wave propagation data observed at multiple stations[J].Entropy,2018b,20(3):1-17.
[50]Mignan A.The stress accumulation model:accelerating moment release and seismic hazard[J].Advances in Geophysics,2008,49:67-201.
[51]Chaudhuri H,Bari W,Iqbal N,et al.Long range gas-geochemical anomalies of a remote earthquake recorded simultaneously at distant monitoring stations in India[J].Geochemical Journal,2011,45:137-156.
[52]Chen C H,Lin C H,Wang C H,et al.Potential relationships between seismo-deformation and seismo-conductivity anomalies[J].Journal of Asian Earth Sciences,2015,114:327-337.
[53]Cenni N,Viti M,Mantovani E.Space geodetic data(GPS)and earthquake forecasting:examples from the Italian geodetic network[J].Bollettino di Geofisica Teorica ed Applicata,2015,56:129-150.
[54]Qin K,Wu L X,De Santis A,et al.Quasi-synchronous multi-parameter anomalies associated with the 2010-2011New Zealand earthquake sequence[J].Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences,2012,12:1 059-1 072.
[55]Peng Z G,Gomberg J.An integrated perspective of the continuum between earthquakes and slowslip phenomena[J].Nature Geoscience,2010,3:599-607.
[56]Woessner J,Hainzl S,Marzocchi W,et al.A retrospective comparative forecast test on the 1992Landers sequence[J].J Geophys Res,2011,116,B05305.
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[59]Lombardi A M,Marzocchi W.The Etas model for daily forecasting of Italian seismicity in the CSEPexperiment[J].Annals of Geophysics,2010,53:155-164.
[60]Zhuang J C.Next-day earthquake forecasts for the Japan region generated by the Etas model[J].Earth Planets and Space,2011,63:207-216.
[61]Ishibe T,Shimazaki K,Tsuruoka H,et al.Correlation between coulomb stress changes imparted by large historical strike-slip earthquakes and current seismicity in Japan[J].Earth Planets and Space,2011,63:301-314.
[62]Zeng X P,Lin Y F,Chen W S,et al.Multiple seismo-anomalies associated with the m6.1Ludian earthquake on August 3,2014[J].Journal of Asian Earth Sciences,2015,114:352-361.
[63]Lolli B,Gasperini P,Boschi E.Time variations of aftershock decay parameters of the 2009April 6L'Aquila(central Italy)earthquake:evidence of the emergence of a negative exponential regime superimposed to the power law[J].Geophys J Inter,2011,185:764-774
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(1)http://cluster.ischool.drexel.edu/～cchen/citespace/, Last accessed: 2018/09/01
(2)http://www.aces.org.au/,Last accessed: 2018/09/18
(3)https://www.scec.org/
(4)http://cluster.ischool.drexel.edu/～cchen/citespace/, Last accessed: 20180918
[2]董军.地震科学主流期刊总被引频次的分析[J].国际地震动态,2004,(增刊):102.
[3]吕金霞,王晓青.1994-2002年地震研究文献计量分析[J].地震,2004,24:131-136.
[4]于山,张玉敏,苏幼坡.《世界地震工程》被引特征的统计分析[J].世界地震工程,2005,21:159-162.
[5]吴琼.1985-2010《中国地震》载文被引分析[J].中国地震,2012,28:441-448.
[6]吴琼.1985-2010《中国地震》高被引论文分析[J].国际地震动态,2013,(5):31-38.
[7]季婉婧,王金平.基于文献计量的国际地震地质科学研究发展态势分析[J].世界科技研究与发展,2017,39:275-283.
[8]张静.引文、引文分析与学术论文评价[J].社会科学管理与评论,2008,1:33-38.
[9]邱均平.信息计量学(九)第九讲文献信息引证规律和引文分析法[J].情报理论与实践,2001,3:236-240.
[10]Chen C M.Searching for intellectual turning points:Progressive knowledge domain visualization[J].Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,2004,101:5 303-5 310.
[11]Chen C M.CiteSpace II:Detecting and visualizing emerging trends and transient patterns in scientific literature[J].Journal of the America Society for Information and Technology,2006,57:359-377.
[12]Chen C M,lbekwe-Sanjuan F,Hou J H.The structure and dynamics of cocitation clusters:A multiple-perspective cocitation analysis[J].Journal of the America Society for Information and Technology,2010,61:1 386-1 409.
[13]Chen C M.Cascading citation expansion[J].Journal of Information Science Theory and Practice,2018,6:6-23.
[14]侯建华,胡志刚.CiteSpace软件应用研究的回顾与展望[J].现代情报,2013,33:99-103.
[15]李杰,陈超美.CiteSpace:科技文本挖掘及可视化[M].北京:首都经济贸易大学出版社,2016.
[16]林德明,刘则渊.国际地震预测预报研究现状的文献计量分析[J].中国软科学,2008,6:62-70.
[17]Gardner J K,Knopoff L.Is the sequence of earthquake in Southern California,with aftershocks removed,poissonian[J]?Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,1974,64:1 363-1 367.
[18]赵丹群.基于CiteSpace的科学知识图谱绘制若干问题探讨[J].情报理论与实践,2012,35:56-58.
[19]Geller R J.Earthquake prediction:A critical review[J].Geophysical Journal International,1997,131:425-450.
[20]陈运泰.地震预测-进展、困难与前景[J].地震地磁观测与研究,2007,28(2):1-24.
[21]Jordan T H,Chen Y T,Gasparini P,et al.Operational Earthquake Forecasting:State of Knowledge and Guidelines for Utilization[J].Annals of Geophysics,2011,54:315-391.
[22]Anonymous.Works on earthquake forecast at the Academy-of-Sciences-of-the-Tajik-SSR.Vestnik Akademii Nauk Sssr,1984,5:60-64.
[23]Sadovsky M A.State and prospects of scientific-research on earthquake forecast.Vestnik Akademii Nauk Sssr,1985,10:26-38.
[24]Kerr R A.Earthquake forecast endorsed[J].Science,1985,228:311.
[25]吴忠良,蒋长胜.近期国际地震预测预报研究进展的几个侧面[J].中国地震,2005,21:103-112.
[26]Scholz C H,Sykes L R,Aggarwal Y P.Earthquake prediction-physical basis[J].Science,1973,181:803-810.
[27]Sykes L R.Aftershock zones of great earthquakes,seismicity gaps,and earthquake prediction for Alaska and Aleutians[J].Journal of Geophysical Research,1971,76:8 021-8 041.
[28]Whitcomb J H,Garmany J D,Anderson D L.Earthquake prediction:variation of seismic velocities before San-Francisco earthquake[J].Science,1973,180:632-635.
[29]Bakun W H,Lindh A G.The Parkfield,California,Earthquake prediction experiment[J].Science,1985,229:619-624.
[30]Allegre C J,Lemouel J L,Provost A.Scaling rules in rock fracture and possible implications for earthquake prediction[J].Nature,1982,297:47-49.
[31]King C Y.Gas geochemistry applied to earthquake prediction:An overview[J].J Geophys Res,1986,91:2 269-2 281.
[32]Stein R S,Barka A A,Dieterich J H.Progressive failure on the North Anatolian fault since 1939by earthquake stress triggering[J].Geophys J Inter,1997,128:594-604.
[33]Lockner D.The role of acoustic-emission in the study of rock fracture[J].International Journal of Rock Mechanics and Mining Sciences,1993,30:883-899.
[34]Sornette D,Sammis C G.Complex critical exponents from renormalization-group theory of earthquake-implications for earthquake predictions[J].Journal de Physique I,1995,5:607-619.
[35]Marone C.Laboratory-derived friction laws and their application to seismic faulting[J].Aunual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences,1998,26:643-696.
[36]Toutain J P,Baubron J C.Gas geochemistry and seismotectonics:a review[J].Tectonophysics,1999,304:1-27.
[37]Sarewitz D.How science makes environmental controversies worse[J].Environmental Science&Policy,2002,7:385-403.
[38]Cicerone R D,Ebel J E,Britton J.A systematic compilation of earthquake precursors[J].Tectonophysics,2009,476:371-396.
[39]Uyeda S,Nagao T,Kamogawa M.Short-term earthquake prediction:Current status of seismo-electromagnetics[J].Tectonophysics,2009,470:205-213.
[40]Toda S,Stein R S,Richards-Dinger K,et al.Forecasting the evolution of seismicity in southern California:Animations built on the earthquake stress transfer[J].J Geophys Res,2005,110,B05S16.
[41]Helmstetter A,Kagan Y Y,Jackson D D.Comparison of short-term and time-independent earthquake forecast models for southern California[J].Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,2006,96:90-106.
[42]Toda S,Stein R S.Response of the San Andreas Fault to the 1983Coalinga-Nunez earthquakes:An application of interaction-based probabilities for Parkfield[J].J Geophys Res,2002,107,B6(2126).
[43]Zechar J D,Schorlemmer D,Liukis M,et al.The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability perspective on computational earthquake science[J].Concurrency and Computation:Practice and Experience,2008.
[44]Zechar J D,Gerstenberger M C,Rhoades D A.Likelihood-Based tests for evaluating space-ratemagnitude earthquake forecasts[J].Bull Seismol Soc Amer,2010,100:1 184-1 195.
[45]Marzocchi W,Lombardi A M.Real-time forecasting following a damaging earthquake[J].Geophys Res Lett,2009,36(L21302).
[46]Werner M J,Zechar J D,Marzocchi W,et al.Retrospective evaluation of the five-year and ten-year CSEP-Italy earthquake forecasts[J].Annals of Geophysics,2010,53:11-30
[47]Priyadarshi S,Kumar S,Singh A K.Ionospheric perturbations associated with two recent major earthquakes(M>5.0)[J].Physica Scripta,2011,84(4):1-12.
[48]Potirakis S M,Contoyiannis Y,Asano T,et al.Intermittency-induced criticality in the lower ionosphere prior to the 2016Kumamoto earthquakes as embedded in the vlf propagation data observed at multiple stations[J].Tectonophysics,2018a,722:422-431.
[49]Potirakis S M,Asano T,Hayakawa M.Criticality analysis of the lower ionosphere perturbations prior to the 2016Kumamoto(Japan)earthquakes as based on vlf electromagnetic wave propagation data observed at multiple stations[J].Entropy,2018b,20(3):1-17.
[50]Mignan A.The stress accumulation model:accelerating moment release and seismic hazard[J].Advances in Geophysics,2008,49:67-201.
[51]Chaudhuri H,Bari W,Iqbal N,et al.Long range gas-geochemical anomalies of a remote earthquake recorded simultaneously at distant monitoring stations in India[J].Geochemical Journal,2011,45:137-156.
[52]Chen C H,Lin C H,Wang C H,et al.Potential relationships between seismo-deformation and seismo-conductivity anomalies[J].Journal of Asian Earth Sciences,2015,114:327-337.
[53]Cenni N,Viti M,Mantovani E.Space geodetic data(GPS)and earthquake forecasting:examples from the Italian geodetic network[J].Bollettino di Geofisica Teorica ed Applicata,2015,56:129-150.
[54]Qin K,Wu L X,De Santis A,et al.Quasi-synchronous multi-parameter anomalies associated with the 2010-2011New Zealand earthquake sequence[J].Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences,2012,12:1 059-1 072.
[55]Peng Z G,Gomberg J.An integrated perspective of the continuum between earthquakes and slowslip phenomena[J].Nature Geoscience,2010,3:599-607.
[56]Woessner J,Hainzl S,Marzocchi W,et al.A retrospective comparative forecast test on the 1992Landers sequence[J].J Geophys Res,2011,116,B05305.
[57]Martínez-álvarez F,Reyes J,Morales-Esteban A,et al.Determining the best set of seicmicity indicators to predict earthquakes.Two case studies:Chile and the Iberian Peninsula[J].KnowledgeBased Systems,2013,50:198-210.
[58]Morales-Esteban A,Martínez-álvarez F,Reyes J.Earthquakes prediction in seismogenic areas of the Iberian Peninsula based on computational intelligence[J].Tectonophysics,2013,593:121-134.
[59]Lombardi A M,Marzocchi W.The Etas model for daily forecasting of Italian seismicity in the CSEPexperiment[J].Annals of Geophysics,2010,53:155-164.
[60]Zhuang J C.Next-day earthquake forecasts for the Japan region generated by the Etas model[J].Earth Planets and Space,2011,63:207-216.
[61]Ishibe T,Shimazaki K,Tsuruoka H,et al.Correlation between coulomb stress changes imparted by large historical strike-slip earthquakes and current seismicity in Japan[J].Earth Planets and Space,2011,63:301-314.
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