美国干旱监测预测业务发展及其科学挑战
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摘要
干旱是全球普遍存在的对人类影响最为严重的一种自然灾害。近百年气候显著变暖和社会快速发展,加剧了干旱的影响程度,增强了干旱灾害的风险,给全球农业、水资源、生态环境安全以及社会可持续发展造成巨大威胁。提高干旱监测和早期预警技术是应对、管理干旱以及减轻干旱脆弱性的基础。本文介绍了近年来美国在干旱监测、预测业务及研究方面取得的新进展,回顾了美国在区域和全球尺度下干旱监测及数值模式预报系统的发展,重点概述了干旱科学研究与技术进步,并结合2016年美国政府部门的抗旱任务书,讨论了干旱监测和预测面临的机遇与挑战,为我国干旱监测与预测发展提供新视角。
Drought is the most severe natural hazard affecting on human society and it exists generally in the whole global. In recent a century, the climate warming and society developing exacerbated the degree of drought influence and risk, which brought a great threat to global agriculture, water resource, ecological environment security and society sustainable development. It is the basis of fighting and managing drought and reducing drought vulnerability to improve the drought monitoring and early warning skill. In this paper, we introduce the new progress of drought monitoring and prediction operation and research in the United States in recent years, and provide an overview of the development of regional and global drought monitoring and prediction systems(DMAPS). It focuses on the scientific researches and technology improvement of drought. At last, the opportunities and challenges of drought monitoring and prediction are discussed referring to NOAA Interagency Drought task Force in 2016, which is beneficial to provide a new perspective for drought monitoring and forecast in China.
Drought is the most severe natural hazard affecting on human society and it exists generally in the whole global. In recent a century, the climate warming and society developing exacerbated the degree of drought influence and risk, which brought a great threat to global agriculture, water resource, ecological environment security and society sustainable development. It is the basis of fighting and managing drought and reducing drought vulnerability to improve the drought monitoring and early warning skill. In this paper, we introduce the new progress of drought monitoring and prediction operation and research in the United States in recent years, and provide an overview of the development of regional and global drought monitoring and prediction systems(DMAPS). It focuses on the scientific researches and technology improvement of drought. At last, the opportunities and challenges of drought monitoring and prediction are discussed referring to NOAA Interagency Drought task Force in 2016, which is beneficial to provide a new perspective for drought monitoring and forecast in China.
引文
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[4] 张强,张良,崔显成,等.干旱监测与评价技术的发展及其科学挑战[J].地球科学进展,2011,26(7):763-778.
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[6] 沙莎,郭铌,李耀辉,等.我国温度植被旱情指数TVDI的应用现状及问题简述[J].干旱气象,2014,32(1):128-134.
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[24] ANDERSON M C,ZOLIN C A,SENTELHAS P C,et al.The evaporative stress index as an indicator of agricultural drought in Brazil:An assessment based on crop yield impacts[J].Remote Sensing of Environment,2016,174:82-99.
[25] ANDERSON M C,HAIN C,OTKIN J,et al.An intercomparison of drought indicators based on thermal remote sensing and NLDAS-2 simulations with U.S.drought monitor classifications[J].Journal of Hydrometeorology,2013,14(4):1035-1056.
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[27] 王涓力,译.美国国家级干旱监测业务产品介绍[J].干旱气象,2006,24(1):90-94.
[28] 梁顺林,李新,谢先红,等.陆面观测、模拟与数据同化[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2013:235-255.
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[31] CHEN J L,LI J,ZHANG Z Z,et al.Long-term groundwater variations in Northwest India from satellite gravity measurements[J].Global and Planetary Change,2014,116:130-138.
[32] ABELEN S,SEITZ F,ABARCA-DEL-RIO R,et al.Droughts and floods in the La Plata basin in soil moisture data and GRACE[J].Remote Sensing,2015,7(6):7324-7349.
[33] 杨元德,鄂栋臣,晁定波,等.GRACE估算陆地水储量季节和年际变化[J].地球物理学报,2009,52(12):2987-2992.
[34] GIROTTO M,LANNOY G J M D,REICHLE R H,et al.Benefits and pitfalls of GRACE data assimilation:a cast study of terrestrial water storage depletion in India[J].Geophysical Research Letters,2017,44(9):4107-4115.
[35] HOUBORG R,RODELL M,LI B,et al.Drought indicators based on model-assimilated gravity recovery and climate experiment (GRACE) terrestrial water storage observations[J].Water Resource Research,2012,48(7):2515-2521.DOI:10.1029/2011WR011291.
[36] COOK B I,MILLER R L,SEAGER R.Amplification of the North American “Dust Bowl” drought through human-induced land degradation[J].Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,2009,106(13):4997-5001.
[37] SCHUBERT S D.On the cause of the 1930s Dust Bowl[J].Science,2004,303:1855-1859.
[38] MCCABE G J,PALECKI M A,BETANCOURT J L.Pacific and Atlantic Ocean influences on multidecadal drought frequency in the United States[J].Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,2004,101(12):4136-4141.
[39] KIRTMAN B,PIRANI A.The state of the art of seasonal prediction[J].Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,2009,90(4):455.DOI:org/10.1175/2008BAMS2707.1.
[40] BARROS A P,BOWDEN G J.Toward long-lead operational forecasts of drought:An experimental study in the Murray-Darling River Basin[J].Journal of Hydrology,2008,357(3/4):349-367.
[41] HAO Z C,AGHAKOUCHAK A,NAKHJIRI N,et al.Global integrated drought monitoring and prediction system[J].Scientific Data,2014.DOI:10.1038/sdata.2014.1.
[42] NIDIS.Global Drought Information System[EB/OL].[https://www.drought.gov/gdm/,2018-10-30]
[43] YUAN X,ROUNDY J K,WOOD E F,et al.Seasonal forecasting of global hydrologic extremes:system development and evaluation over GEWEX basins[J].Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,2015,96:1895-1912.
[44] MO K C,LETTENMAIER D P.Heat wave flash droughts in decline[J].Geophysical Research Letters,2015,42:2823-2829.
[45] WANG L Y,YUAN X,XIE Z H,et al.Increasing flash droughts over China during the recent global warming hiatus[J].Scientific Reports,2016,6:30571.DOI:10.1038/srep30571.
[46] MO K C,LETTENMAIER D P.Objective drought classification using multiple land surface models[J].Journal of Hydrometeorology,2014,15(3):990-1010.
[47] THOBER S,KUMAR R,SHEFFIELD J,et al.Seasonal soil moisture drought prediction over Europe using the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME)[J].Journal of Hydrometeorology,2015,16:2329-2344.
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[49] YUAN X,WOOD E F.Multimodel seasonal forecasting of global drought onset[J].Geophysical Research Letters,2013,40(18):4900-4905.
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[2] 张强,韩兰英,张立阳,等.论气候变暖背景下干旱和干旱灾害风险特征与管理策略[J].地球科学进展,2014,29(1):80-91.
[3] 王劲松,李耀辉,王润元,等.我国气象干旱研究进展评述[J].干旱气象,2012,30(4):497-508.
[4] 张强,张良,崔显成,等.干旱监测与评价技术的发展及其科学挑战[J].地球科学进展,2011,26(7):763-778.
[5] 李忆平,李耀辉.气象干旱指数在中国的适应性研究进展[J].干旱气象,2017,35(5):709-723.
[6] 沙莎,郭铌,李耀辉,等.我国温度植被旱情指数TVDI的应用现状及问题简述[J].干旱气象,2014,32(1):128-134.
[7] HUANG J,SVOBODA M,WOOD A,et al.Research to advance national drought monitoring and prediction capabilities[C]// NOAA Interagency Drought task Force,2016.
[8] BASTIAANSSEN W G M,MENENTI M,FEDDES R A,et al.A remote sensing surface energy balance algorithm for land (SEBAL).1.Formulation[J].Journal of Hydrology,1998(212/213):198-212.
[9] NORMAN J M,KUSTAS W P,HUMES K S.Source approach for estimating soil and vegetation energy fluxes in observations of directional radiometric surface temperature[J].Agricultural and Forest Meteorology,1995,77:263-293.
[10] ANDERSON M C,NORMAN J M,DIAK G R,et al.A two-source time-integrated model for estimating surface fluxes using thermal infrared remote sensing[J].Remote Sensing of Environment,1997,60(2):195-216.
[11] ANDERSON M C,HAIN C,WARDLOW B,et al.Evaluation of drought indices based on thermal remote sensing of evapotranspiration over the continental United States[J].Journal of Climate,2011,24:2025-2044.
[12] 郑有飞,陈鹏,吴荣军,等.地表蒸散的遥感估算模型及其在农业干旱监测中的应用[J].生态学杂志,2011,30(4):837-844.
[13] ANDERSON M C,NORMAN J M,MECIKALSKI J R,et al.A climatological study of evapotranspiration and moisture stress across the continental United States based on thermal remote sensing.1.Model formulation[J].Journal of Geophysical Research,2007,112:D10117.
[14] WILHITE D A,GLANTZ M H.Understanding the drought phenomenon:The role of definitions[J].Water International,1985,10(3):111-120.
[15] MCKEE T B,DOESKEN N J,KLEIST J.The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales[C]// The 8th Conference on Applied Climatology,Anaheim,USA,1993:17-22.
[16] HAYES M,SVOBODA M,WALL N,et al.The Lincoln declaration on drought indices:universal meteorological drought index recommended[J].Bulletin of American Meteorological Society,2011,92:485-488.
[17] 郭铌,王小平.遥感干旱应用技术进展及面临的技术问题与发展机遇[J].干旱气象,2015,33(1):1-18.
[18] VICENTE-SERRANO S M,BEGUERíA S,LóPEZ-MORENO J I.A multiscalar drought index sensitive to global warming:the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index[J].Journal of Climate,2010,23:1696-1718.
[19] KOGAN F N.World droughts in the new millennium from AVHRR-based vegetation health indices[J].Eos Transactions American Geophysical Union,2002,83(48):557-564.
[20] KOGAN F N.Global drought watch from space[J].Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,1997,78:621-636.
[21] 徐焕颖,贾建华,刘良云,等.基于多源干旱指数的黄淮海平原干旱监测[J].遥感技术与应用,2015,30(1):25-32.
[22] KARNIELI A,BAYASGALAN M,BAYARJARGAL Y,et al.Comments on the use of the vegetation health index over Mongolia[J].International Journal of Remote Sensing,2006,27(9/10):2017-2024.
[23] ANDERSON M C,KUSTAS W P,NORMAN J M,et al.Mapping daily evapotranspiration at field to continental scales using geostationary and polar orbiting satellite imagery[J].Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2011,15:223-239.
[24] ANDERSON M C,ZOLIN C A,SENTELHAS P C,et al.The evaporative stress index as an indicator of agricultural drought in Brazil:An assessment based on crop yield impacts[J].Remote Sensing of Environment,2016,174:82-99.
[25] ANDERSON M C,HAIN C,OTKIN J,et al.An intercomparison of drought indicators based on thermal remote sensing and NLDAS-2 simulations with U.S.drought monitor classifications[J].Journal of Hydrometeorology,2013,14(4):1035-1056.
[26] BROWN J F,WARDLOW B D,TADESSE T,et al.The vegetation drought response index (VegDRI):A new integrated approach for monitoring drought stress in vegetation[J].GIScience and Remote Sensing,2008,45:16-46.
[27] 王涓力,译.美国国家级干旱监测业务产品介绍[J].干旱气象,2006,24(1):90-94.
[28] 梁顺林,李新,谢先红,等.陆面观测、模拟与数据同化[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2013:235-255.
[29] SWENSON S,WAHR J.Post-processing removal of correlated errors in GRACE data[J].Geophysical Research Letters,2006,33(8):L08402.DOI:10-1029/2005GL025285.
[30] LINAGE C D,FAMIGLIETTI J S,RANDERSON J T.Statistical prediction of terrestrial water storage changes in the Amazon Basin using tropical Pacific and North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies[J].Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2014,18(6):2089-2102.
[31] CHEN J L,LI J,ZHANG Z Z,et al.Long-term groundwater variations in Northwest India from satellite gravity measurements[J].Global and Planetary Change,2014,116:130-138.
[32] ABELEN S,SEITZ F,ABARCA-DEL-RIO R,et al.Droughts and floods in the La Plata basin in soil moisture data and GRACE[J].Remote Sensing,2015,7(6):7324-7349.
[33] 杨元德,鄂栋臣,晁定波,等.GRACE估算陆地水储量季节和年际变化[J].地球物理学报,2009,52(12):2987-2992.
[34] GIROTTO M,LANNOY G J M D,REICHLE R H,et al.Benefits and pitfalls of GRACE data assimilation:a cast study of terrestrial water storage depletion in India[J].Geophysical Research Letters,2017,44(9):4107-4115.
[35] HOUBORG R,RODELL M,LI B,et al.Drought indicators based on model-assimilated gravity recovery and climate experiment (GRACE) terrestrial water storage observations[J].Water Resource Research,2012,48(7):2515-2521.DOI:10.1029/2011WR011291.
[36] COOK B I,MILLER R L,SEAGER R.Amplification of the North American “Dust Bowl” drought through human-induced land degradation[J].Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,2009,106(13):4997-5001.
[37] SCHUBERT S D.On the cause of the 1930s Dust Bowl[J].Science,2004,303:1855-1859.
[38] MCCABE G J,PALECKI M A,BETANCOURT J L.Pacific and Atlantic Ocean influences on multidecadal drought frequency in the United States[J].Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,2004,101(12):4136-4141.
[39] KIRTMAN B,PIRANI A.The state of the art of seasonal prediction[J].Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,2009,90(4):455.DOI:org/10.1175/2008BAMS2707.1.
[40] BARROS A P,BOWDEN G J.Toward long-lead operational forecasts of drought:An experimental study in the Murray-Darling River Basin[J].Journal of Hydrology,2008,357(3/4):349-367.
[41] HAO Z C,AGHAKOUCHAK A,NAKHJIRI N,et al.Global integrated drought monitoring and prediction system[J].Scientific Data,2014.DOI:10.1038/sdata.2014.1.
[42] NIDIS.Global Drought Information System[EB/OL].[https://www.drought.gov/gdm/,2018-10-30]
[43] YUAN X,ROUNDY J K,WOOD E F,et al.Seasonal forecasting of global hydrologic extremes:system development and evaluation over GEWEX basins[J].Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,2015,96:1895-1912.
[44] MO K C,LETTENMAIER D P.Heat wave flash droughts in decline[J].Geophysical Research Letters,2015,42:2823-2829.
[45] WANG L Y,YUAN X,XIE Z H,et al.Increasing flash droughts over China during the recent global warming hiatus[J].Scientific Reports,2016,6:30571.DOI:10.1038/srep30571.
[46] MO K C,LETTENMAIER D P.Objective drought classification using multiple land surface models[J].Journal of Hydrometeorology,2014,15(3):990-1010.
[47] THOBER S,KUMAR R,SHEFFIELD J,et al.Seasonal soil moisture drought prediction over Europe using the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME)[J].Journal of Hydrometeorology,2015,16:2329-2344.
[48] WOOD A W,MAURER E P,KUMAR A,et al.Long-range experimental hydrologic forecasting for the eastern United States[J].Journal of Geophysical Research:Atmospheres,2002,107(D20):4429.DOI:org/10.1029/2001JD000659.
[49] YUAN X,WOOD E F.Multimodel seasonal forecasting of global drought onset[J].Geophysical Research Letters,2013,40(18):4900-4905.
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