青藏高原5—10月地表潜热通量与青海同期降水之间的关系
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摘要
利用1981—2015年ERA-Interim再分析资料和青海省43个观测站气象资料,采用气象经验正交函数分解(EOF)、相关分析法及合成分析等方法,对青藏高原(以下简称高原) 5—10月地表潜热通量的时空分布特征及其与青海省同期降水之间的关系进行了分析,结果表明:(1)高原地表潜热通量第1模态空间分布主要呈现高原东西部变化不一致的特征,青海东北部、高原西部和南部地区表现为正异常,其余地区为负异常;第1模态时间系数呈现显著下降趋势,并以2001年为界,前正后负,表明青海东北部及高原西部和南部地表潜热通量在2001年以前(后)增加(减少)。(2)高原地表潜热通量与青海省东北部降水存在显著的负相关关系,当高原地表潜热通量增加(减少)时,青海省东北部降水减少(增加)。(3)将通过0. 1显著性检验的区域作为研究二者之间关系的关键区(35. 0°～38. 5°N,98°～103. 0°E),以1个标准差为依据,挑选潜热通量高值年和低值年。结果表明,关键区内地表潜热通量在近35 a表现为显著下降的趋势,潜热通量高值年关键区降水增加,潜热通量低值年关键区东北部降水减少,其余地区降水增加,且在南部存在大于60 mm正异常中心;在潜热通量高(低)值年,关键区位势偏低(高),风速偏大(小),关键区南部水汽辐合较弱(强)。通过分析100 hP a南亚高压中心强度与300 hP a温度场,在地表潜热通量异常偏高(低)年,南亚高压强度略低(高),300 hP a暖中心略低(高),且南亚高压初上(撤离)高原较早。
In this study,the ERA-Interim reanalysis data and the observation data from 43 meteorology stations in Qinghai Province from 1981 to 2010 were used. The purposes of the study were to analyze the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of the surface latent heat flux( short for slhf) over the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau and its relationship with precipitation in Qinghai from May to October using the method of EOF( Empirical orthogonal functions),correlation analysis and composite analysis. The result showed that:(1) The spatial distribution of first order mode of slhf was different in the eastern and western regions of the plateau,the anomaly was positive in northeast Qinghai and the western and southern regions of the plateau but negative in other areas. The time coefficient of first order mode was in a significant downward trend,it was positive before 2001 but negative after that,which revealed that the slhf in northeast Qinghai and the western and southern parts of the plateau increased before 2001 but decreased after that;(2) There was a significant negative correlation between the slhf over the plateau and the precipitation in northeast Qinghai Province. When the slhf over the plateau was increased( or decreased),the precipitation in northeast Qinghai was reduced( or increased);(3) The area where it passed the significance test of 0. 1 was regarded as the key area( 35. 0°-38. 5°N,98°-103. 0°E) to study the relationship between the two,and 1 standard deviation was used to select the high-value years and low-value years of slhf. The results revealed that the slhf in the key area in recent 35 years was in a significant decrease trend,the precipitation in the key area was increased in the high-value years of slhf,it was decreased in the northeastern part of the key area but increased in other regions,and there was a 60 mm positive anomaly center in the south;(4) In the high-value( or low-value) years of slhf,the potential of the key area was low( or high),the wind speed was high( or low),and the water vapor convergence was weak( or strong) in the south of the key area. Analysis of the intensity of the 100 h Pa South Asian High Center and the 300 h Pa temperature field revealed that the intensity of the South Asian High and the 300 hPa warm center were slightly lower( or higher) in the years when the slhf was abnormally high( or low),and the establishment( or retreat) of South Asian High was earlier.
In this study,the ERA-Interim reanalysis data and the observation data from 43 meteorology stations in Qinghai Province from 1981 to 2010 were used. The purposes of the study were to analyze the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of the surface latent heat flux( short for slhf) over the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau and its relationship with precipitation in Qinghai from May to October using the method of EOF( Empirical orthogonal functions),correlation analysis and composite analysis. The result showed that:(1) The spatial distribution of first order mode of slhf was different in the eastern and western regions of the plateau,the anomaly was positive in northeast Qinghai and the western and southern regions of the plateau but negative in other areas. The time coefficient of first order mode was in a significant downward trend,it was positive before 2001 but negative after that,which revealed that the slhf in northeast Qinghai and the western and southern parts of the plateau increased before 2001 but decreased after that;(2) There was a significant negative correlation between the slhf over the plateau and the precipitation in northeast Qinghai Province. When the slhf over the plateau was increased( or decreased),the precipitation in northeast Qinghai was reduced( or increased);(3) The area where it passed the significance test of 0. 1 was regarded as the key area( 35. 0°-38. 5°N,98°-103. 0°E) to study the relationship between the two,and 1 standard deviation was used to select the high-value years and low-value years of slhf. The results revealed that the slhf in the key area in recent 35 years was in a significant decrease trend,the precipitation in the key area was increased in the high-value years of slhf,it was decreased in the northeastern part of the key area but increased in other regions,and there was a 60 mm positive anomaly center in the south;(4) In the high-value( or low-value) years of slhf,the potential of the key area was low( or high),the wind speed was high( or low),and the water vapor convergence was weak( or strong) in the south of the key area. Analysis of the intensity of the 100 h Pa South Asian High Center and the 300 h Pa temperature field revealed that the intensity of the South Asian High and the 300 hPa warm center were slightly lower( or higher) in the years when the slhf was abnormally high( or low),and the establishment( or retreat) of South Asian High was earlier.
引文
[1]王静,何金海,祁莉,等.青藏高原土壤湿度的变化特征及其对中国东部降水影响的研究进展[J].大气科学学报,2018,41(1):1-11.[Wang Jing,He Jinhai,Qi Li,et al.The variation characteristics of soil moisture in Tibet Plateau and its influences on the precipitation in Eastern China:Recent progress[J].Transactions of Atmospheric Sciences,2018,41(1):1-11.]
[2]Michio Yanai,Li C F,Song Z S.Seasonal heating of the Tibetan Plateau and its effects on the evolution of the Asian summer monsoon[J].Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan:Ser.II,1992,70(1B):319-351.
[3]张浩鑫,李维京,李伟平,等.春夏季青藏高原与伊朗高原地表热通量的时空分布特征及相互联系[J].气象学报,2017,75(2):260-274.[Zhang Haoxin,Li Weijing,Li Weiping,et al.Spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of surface heat fluxes over both Tibetan Plateau and Iranian Plateau in boreal spring and summer and their relationships[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,2017,75(2):260-274.]
[4]董敏,朱文妹,徐祥德,等.青藏高原地表热通量变化及其对初夏东亚大气环流的影响[J].应用气象学报,2001,12(4):458-468.[Dong Min,Zhu Wenmei,Xu Xiangde,et al.The variation of surface heat flux over Tibet Plateau and its influences on the east asia circulation in early summer[J].Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology,2001,12(4):458-468.]
[5]张杰,李栋梁.青藏高原夏季凝结潜热时空分布特征分析[J].地学前缘,2009,16(1):326-334.[Zhang Jie,Li Dongliang.E-valuation and analysis of latent heat in Qinghai-Xizang Plateau[J].Earth Science Frontiers,2009,16(1):326-334.]
[6]刘娜,王彰贵,凌铁军,等.热带太平洋潜热通量变化及其与我国夏季降水的关系[J].海洋预报,2012,29(6):50-57.[Liu Na,Wang Zhanggui,Ling Tiejun,et al.Variations of latent heat flux in the equatorial Pacific and its relation to the anomalous summer rainfall patterns in China[J].Marine Forecasts,2012,29(6):50-57.]
[7]胡雪,王文,李理.太平洋潜热通量及其与黄淮夏季降水的关系[J].气象科技,2015,43(3):482-487.[Hu Xue,Wang Wen,Li Li.Latent heat flux over Pacific and its relationship with summer precipitation in Huanghuai Region[J].Meteorological Science and Technology,2015,43(3):482-487.]
[8]卢萍,宇如聪.地表潜热通量对四川地区降水影响的数值分析[J].高原山地气象研究,2012,28(3):1-7.[Lu Ping,Yu Rucong.Numerical analysis on the impacts of surface latent heat flux transport on Sichuan rainfall process[J].Plateau and Mountain Meteorology Research,2012,28(3):1-7.]
[9]单永强,任保华,齐义泉,等.西太平洋-南海地区潜热通量长期变化趋势的南北差异及成因分析[J].气候与环境研究,2016,21(4):467-478.[Shan Yongqiang,Ren Baohua,Qi Yiquan,et al.The North-South contrast of long-term trend of latent heat flux in West Pacific-South China sea and the possible mechanism[J].Climatic and Environmental Research,2016,21(4):467-478.]
[10]王宏娜,陈锦年,左涛.印度洋潜热通量对南海夏季风爆发的影响[J].热带气象学报,2014,30(1):189-193.[Wang Hongna,Chen Jinnian,Zuo Tao.Impact of latent heat flux over the Indian ocean on the onset of South China Sea summer monsoon[J].Journal of Tropical Meteorology,2014,30(1):189-193.]
[11]韩辉邦,马明国,马守存,等.近30 a青海省植被变化及其气候驱动因子分析[J].干旱区研究,2017,27(5):1 164-1 174.[Han Huibang,Ma Mingguo,Ma Shoucun,et al.Vegetation change and its driving climatic factors in Qinghai Province in recent 30years[J].Arid Zone Research,2017,27(5):1 164-1 174.]
[12]董喆,贺康宁,王根柱,等.北川河流域降水与NDVI变化特征及其对径流的影响[J].干旱区研究,2018,35(2):287-295.[Dong Zhe,He Kangning,Wang Genzhu,et al.Variation of precipitation and vegetation NDVI and their effects on stream flow in the Beichuan River Basin[J].Arid Zone Research,2018,35(2):287-295.]
[13]龙柯吉,王佳津,郭旭,等.四川省降水相态识别判据研究[J].高原山地气象研究,2016,36(3):57-65.[Long Keji,Wang Jiajin,Guo Xu,et al.Research on discrimination criterion of precipitation types in Sichuan Province[J].Plateau and Mountain Meteorology Research,2016,36(3):57-65.]
[14]竺夏英,刘屹岷,吴国雄.夏季青藏高原多种地表感热通量资料的评估[J].中国科学D:地球科学,2012,42(7):1 104-1 112.[Zhu Xiaying,Liu Yimin,Wu Guoxiong.An assessment of summer sensible heat flux on the Tibetan Plateau from eight data sets[J].Scientia Sinica(Terrae),2012,42(7):1 104-1 112.]
[15]何冬燕,田红,邓伟涛.三种再分析地表温度资料在青藏高原区域的适用性分析[J].大气科学学报,2013,36(4):458-465.[He Dongyan,Tian Hong,Deng Weitao.Applicability analysis of three reanalysis surface temperature data over the Tibetan Plateau[J].Transactions of Atmospheric Sciences,2013,36(4):458-465.]
[16]Cui Yang,Wang Chenghai.Comparison of sensible and latent heat fluxes during the transition season over the Western Tibetan Plateau from reanalysis datasets[J].Progress in Nature Science,2009,6(1):719-726.
[17]颜玉倩,高庆久,朱克云,等.北半球夏季地表潜热通量时空分布与中国夏季降水之间的关系[J].成都信息工程学院学报,2015,30(5):498-504.[Yan Yuqian,Gao Qingjiu,Zhu Keyun,et al.The characteristic of spatial and temporal distribution of the surface latent heat flux in summer and its relationship to the summer precipitation in China[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,2015,30(5):498-504.]
[18]高荣,董文杰,韦志刚.青藏高原季节性冻土的时空分布特征[J].冰川冻土,2008,30(5):740-744.[Gao Rong,Dong Wenjie,Wei Zhigang.The features of temporal and spatial distributions of seasonal frozen soil in the Tibetan Plateau[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2008,30(5):740-744.]
[19]王涛,罗艳,钟亦鸣,等.西北与华北地区现代降水变化趋势的对比[J].水文,2017,37(1):58-65.[Wang Tao,Luo Yan,Zhong Yiming,et al.Comparison of recent precipitation tendency between Northwest and North China[J].Journal of China Hydrology,2017,37(1):58-65.]
[20]刘嘉慧敏,张文君,何金海,等.前期春季西北太平洋潜热通量与中国南方秋季降水的联系及其可能的物理机制[J].气象学报,2015,73(2):305-317.[Liu Jiahuimin,Zhang Wenjun,He Jinhai,et al.Relationships between the prophase spring latent heat flux anomalies in the Western North Pacific and autumn rainfalls over South China and its possible physical mechanism[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,2015,73(2):305-317.]
[21]苏东玉,李跃清,蒋兴文,等.南亚高压的研究进展及展望[J].干旱气象,2006,24(3):68-74.[Su Dongyu,Li Yueqing,Jiang Xingwen,et al.Research advance on the South Asia high[J].Arid Meteorology,2006,24(3):68-74.]
[22]汤懋苍.高原季风的年代际振荡及其原因探讨[J].气象科学,1995,15(4):64-68.[Tang Maocang.Discussion on inter-decade oscillation of plateau monsoon and its causes[J].Scientia Meteorologica Sinica,1995,15(4):64-68.]
[23]张琼,钱永甫,张学洪.南亚高压的年际和年代际变化[J].大气科学,2000,24(1):67-78.[Zhang Qiong,Qian Yongfu Zhang Xuehong.Interannual and interdecadal variations of the South Asia High[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,2000,24(1):67-78.]
[24]张菁,范广洲,赖欣,等.南亚高压上下高原时间及其与高原季风建立早晚的关系[J].气象科学,2017,37(1):30-40.[Zhang Jing,Fan Guangzhou,Lai Xin,et al.Establishment or retreatment average date of South Asian high over the Tibetan Plateau and its relation with the Tibetan Plateau monsoon onset[J].Journal of the Meteorological Science,2017,37(1):30-40.]
[2]Michio Yanai,Li C F,Song Z S.Seasonal heating of the Tibetan Plateau and its effects on the evolution of the Asian summer monsoon[J].Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan:Ser.II,1992,70(1B):319-351.
[3]张浩鑫,李维京,李伟平,等.春夏季青藏高原与伊朗高原地表热通量的时空分布特征及相互联系[J].气象学报,2017,75(2):260-274.[Zhang Haoxin,Li Weijing,Li Weiping,et al.Spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of surface heat fluxes over both Tibetan Plateau and Iranian Plateau in boreal spring and summer and their relationships[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,2017,75(2):260-274.]
[4]董敏,朱文妹,徐祥德,等.青藏高原地表热通量变化及其对初夏东亚大气环流的影响[J].应用气象学报,2001,12(4):458-468.[Dong Min,Zhu Wenmei,Xu Xiangde,et al.The variation of surface heat flux over Tibet Plateau and its influences on the east asia circulation in early summer[J].Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology,2001,12(4):458-468.]
[5]张杰,李栋梁.青藏高原夏季凝结潜热时空分布特征分析[J].地学前缘,2009,16(1):326-334.[Zhang Jie,Li Dongliang.E-valuation and analysis of latent heat in Qinghai-Xizang Plateau[J].Earth Science Frontiers,2009,16(1):326-334.]
[6]刘娜,王彰贵,凌铁军,等.热带太平洋潜热通量变化及其与我国夏季降水的关系[J].海洋预报,2012,29(6):50-57.[Liu Na,Wang Zhanggui,Ling Tiejun,et al.Variations of latent heat flux in the equatorial Pacific and its relation to the anomalous summer rainfall patterns in China[J].Marine Forecasts,2012,29(6):50-57.]
[7]胡雪,王文,李理.太平洋潜热通量及其与黄淮夏季降水的关系[J].气象科技,2015,43(3):482-487.[Hu Xue,Wang Wen,Li Li.Latent heat flux over Pacific and its relationship with summer precipitation in Huanghuai Region[J].Meteorological Science and Technology,2015,43(3):482-487.]
[8]卢萍,宇如聪.地表潜热通量对四川地区降水影响的数值分析[J].高原山地气象研究,2012,28(3):1-7.[Lu Ping,Yu Rucong.Numerical analysis on the impacts of surface latent heat flux transport on Sichuan rainfall process[J].Plateau and Mountain Meteorology Research,2012,28(3):1-7.]
[9]单永强,任保华,齐义泉,等.西太平洋-南海地区潜热通量长期变化趋势的南北差异及成因分析[J].气候与环境研究,2016,21(4):467-478.[Shan Yongqiang,Ren Baohua,Qi Yiquan,et al.The North-South contrast of long-term trend of latent heat flux in West Pacific-South China sea and the possible mechanism[J].Climatic and Environmental Research,2016,21(4):467-478.]
[10]王宏娜,陈锦年,左涛.印度洋潜热通量对南海夏季风爆发的影响[J].热带气象学报,2014,30(1):189-193.[Wang Hongna,Chen Jinnian,Zuo Tao.Impact of latent heat flux over the Indian ocean on the onset of South China Sea summer monsoon[J].Journal of Tropical Meteorology,2014,30(1):189-193.]
[11]韩辉邦,马明国,马守存,等.近30 a青海省植被变化及其气候驱动因子分析[J].干旱区研究,2017,27(5):1 164-1 174.[Han Huibang,Ma Mingguo,Ma Shoucun,et al.Vegetation change and its driving climatic factors in Qinghai Province in recent 30years[J].Arid Zone Research,2017,27(5):1 164-1 174.]
[12]董喆,贺康宁,王根柱,等.北川河流域降水与NDVI变化特征及其对径流的影响[J].干旱区研究,2018,35(2):287-295.[Dong Zhe,He Kangning,Wang Genzhu,et al.Variation of precipitation and vegetation NDVI and their effects on stream flow in the Beichuan River Basin[J].Arid Zone Research,2018,35(2):287-295.]
[13]龙柯吉,王佳津,郭旭,等.四川省降水相态识别判据研究[J].高原山地气象研究,2016,36(3):57-65.[Long Keji,Wang Jiajin,Guo Xu,et al.Research on discrimination criterion of precipitation types in Sichuan Province[J].Plateau and Mountain Meteorology Research,2016,36(3):57-65.]
[14]竺夏英,刘屹岷,吴国雄.夏季青藏高原多种地表感热通量资料的评估[J].中国科学D:地球科学,2012,42(7):1 104-1 112.[Zhu Xiaying,Liu Yimin,Wu Guoxiong.An assessment of summer sensible heat flux on the Tibetan Plateau from eight data sets[J].Scientia Sinica(Terrae),2012,42(7):1 104-1 112.]
[15]何冬燕,田红,邓伟涛.三种再分析地表温度资料在青藏高原区域的适用性分析[J].大气科学学报,2013,36(4):458-465.[He Dongyan,Tian Hong,Deng Weitao.Applicability analysis of three reanalysis surface temperature data over the Tibetan Plateau[J].Transactions of Atmospheric Sciences,2013,36(4):458-465.]
[16]Cui Yang,Wang Chenghai.Comparison of sensible and latent heat fluxes during the transition season over the Western Tibetan Plateau from reanalysis datasets[J].Progress in Nature Science,2009,6(1):719-726.
[17]颜玉倩,高庆久,朱克云,等.北半球夏季地表潜热通量时空分布与中国夏季降水之间的关系[J].成都信息工程学院学报,2015,30(5):498-504.[Yan Yuqian,Gao Qingjiu,Zhu Keyun,et al.The characteristic of spatial and temporal distribution of the surface latent heat flux in summer and its relationship to the summer precipitation in China[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,2015,30(5):498-504.]
[18]高荣,董文杰,韦志刚.青藏高原季节性冻土的时空分布特征[J].冰川冻土,2008,30(5):740-744.[Gao Rong,Dong Wenjie,Wei Zhigang.The features of temporal and spatial distributions of seasonal frozen soil in the Tibetan Plateau[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2008,30(5):740-744.]
[19]王涛,罗艳,钟亦鸣,等.西北与华北地区现代降水变化趋势的对比[J].水文,2017,37(1):58-65.[Wang Tao,Luo Yan,Zhong Yiming,et al.Comparison of recent precipitation tendency between Northwest and North China[J].Journal of China Hydrology,2017,37(1):58-65.]
[20]刘嘉慧敏,张文君,何金海,等.前期春季西北太平洋潜热通量与中国南方秋季降水的联系及其可能的物理机制[J].气象学报,2015,73(2):305-317.[Liu Jiahuimin,Zhang Wenjun,He Jinhai,et al.Relationships between the prophase spring latent heat flux anomalies in the Western North Pacific and autumn rainfalls over South China and its possible physical mechanism[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,2015,73(2):305-317.]
[21]苏东玉,李跃清,蒋兴文,等.南亚高压的研究进展及展望[J].干旱气象,2006,24(3):68-74.[Su Dongyu,Li Yueqing,Jiang Xingwen,et al.Research advance on the South Asia high[J].Arid Meteorology,2006,24(3):68-74.]
[22]汤懋苍.高原季风的年代际振荡及其原因探讨[J].气象科学,1995,15(4):64-68.[Tang Maocang.Discussion on inter-decade oscillation of plateau monsoon and its causes[J].Scientia Meteorologica Sinica,1995,15(4):64-68.]
[23]张琼,钱永甫,张学洪.南亚高压的年际和年代际变化[J].大气科学,2000,24(1):67-78.[Zhang Qiong,Qian Yongfu Zhang Xuehong.Interannual and interdecadal variations of the South Asia High[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,2000,24(1):67-78.]
[24]张菁,范广洲,赖欣,等.南亚高压上下高原时间及其与高原季风建立早晚的关系[J].气象科学,2017,37(1):30-40.[Zhang Jing,Fan Guangzhou,Lai Xin,et al.Establishment or retreatment average date of South Asian high over the Tibetan Plateau and its relation with the Tibetan Plateau monsoon onset[J].Journal of the Meteorological Science,2017,37(1):30-40.]
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