1971—2015年北疆地区不同等级冷空气时空统计特征分析
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摘要
选取北疆50个观测站1971—2015年的逐日平均气温和最低气温资料,运用小波分析、M-K突变检验等统计方法分析了北疆地区不同等级冷空气活动过程的时空变化特征。分析表明:近45 a北疆地区冷空气活动持续日数在1～15 d,平均持续日数为1.79 d。其中弱冷空气过程持续日数以1～2 d为主;中等强度冷空气、较强冷空气和寒潮过程以1～3 d为主;而强冷空气过程以2～4 d为主。近45 a北疆单站冷空气发生频次为95.3次/a,且具有盆地多、山地少的特点;其中中等强度冷空气为11.8次/a,自东向西逐渐减少;弱冷空气、较强冷空气发生频次为70.9次/a、1.8次/a,呈自西南向东北逐渐减少的趋势;强冷空气和寒潮发生频次为4.2次/a、7.3次/a,呈现由西南向东北增加趋势。近45 a北疆地区冷空气活动频次总体呈减少趋势,年代际表现为先减少后增加的特点,20世纪70年代最多,90年代最少,减少速率为0.33/10 a;弱冷空气和较强冷空气呈增加趋势,增加速率为0.17/10 a和0.03/10 a;中等强度冷空气、强冷空气和寒潮活动频次呈下降趋势,其中寒潮的下降速率达-0.37/10 a;不同等级冷空气活动频次均存在一个15～20 a的显著周期,突变点出现在1980、2003年左右。
The daily average temperature and minimum temperature data of 50 stations in northern Xinjiang from 1971 to 2015 were selected in this paper. The spatial and temporal variation characteristics of cold air activity in the northern Xinjiang region were analyzed by using wavelet analysis and M-K mutation test. The resalts indicate that:in the last 45 years,cold air activity in the northern Xinjiang region lasted from 1 to 15 days,with an average duration of 1.79 days. The duration of the weak cold air process was 1 ～2 days. Moderate strength of cold air,strong cold air and cold wave process with 1～3 days mainly. The strong cold air process was mainly 2～4 days. In the last 45 years,the frequency of cold air in the north Xinjiang single station was 95.3 times per year. It had the characteristics of more frequency in the basin and less in the mountainous area. The moderate cold air was 11.8 times per year. It gradually decreases from east to west. Weak cold air and strong cold air frequency was 70.9 times per year and 1.8 times per year respectively,withethe trend of decreasing from southwest to northeast. The occurrence frequency of strong cold air and cold wave was 4.2 times per year and 7.3 times per year. The trend was increased from southwest to northeast. In the last 45 years, the frequency of cold air activity in northern Xinjiang had decreased. The annual intergenerational performance was characterized by a reduction in the first generation, most in the1970 s and least in the 1990 s. The reduction rate was 0.33/10 a.Weak cold air and strong cold air showed an increasing trend. The increase rate was 0.17/10 a and 0.03/10 a.The frequency of moderate cold air,strong cold air and cold wave was decreasing. The decrease rate of the cold wave was-0.37/10 a.There was a significant period of 15～20 years in the frequency of cold air activity in different grades. The mutational site were around 1980 and 2003.
The daily average temperature and minimum temperature data of 50 stations in northern Xinjiang from 1971 to 2015 were selected in this paper. The spatial and temporal variation characteristics of cold air activity in the northern Xinjiang region were analyzed by using wavelet analysis and M-K mutation test. The resalts indicate that:in the last 45 years,cold air activity in the northern Xinjiang region lasted from 1 to 15 days,with an average duration of 1.79 days. The duration of the weak cold air process was 1 ～2 days. Moderate strength of cold air,strong cold air and cold wave process with 1～3 days mainly. The strong cold air process was mainly 2～4 days. In the last 45 years,the frequency of cold air in the north Xinjiang single station was 95.3 times per year. It had the characteristics of more frequency in the basin and less in the mountainous area. The moderate cold air was 11.8 times per year. It gradually decreases from east to west. Weak cold air and strong cold air frequency was 70.9 times per year and 1.8 times per year respectively,withethe trend of decreasing from southwest to northeast. The occurrence frequency of strong cold air and cold wave was 4.2 times per year and 7.3 times per year. The trend was increased from southwest to northeast. In the last 45 years, the frequency of cold air activity in northern Xinjiang had decreased. The annual intergenerational performance was characterized by a reduction in the first generation, most in the1970 s and least in the 1990 s. The reduction rate was 0.33/10 a.Weak cold air and strong cold air showed an increasing trend. The increase rate was 0.17/10 a and 0.03/10 a.The frequency of moderate cold air,strong cold air and cold wave was decreasing. The decrease rate of the cold wave was-0.37/10 a.There was a significant period of 15～20 years in the frequency of cold air activity in different grades. The mutational site were around 1980 and 2003.
引文
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[4]周琳,孙照渤.1961-2010年我国冷空气的活动特征[J].大气科学学报,2015,38(3):342-353.
[5]毛炜峄,陈颖.1951-2015年乌鲁术齐市寒潮过程频数及强度气候特征[J].干旱气象,2016,34(3):403-411.
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[9]白松竹,博尔楠·哈不都拉,谢秀琴.气候变暖背景下阿勒泰地区寒潮活动变化特征[J].冰川冻土,2015,37(2):387-394.
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[11]肉孜·阿基,李如琦,唐冶.2011年初北疆强寒潮过程诊断分析[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2013.7(3):7-12.
[12]毛炜峄,白素琴,陈鹏翔.1951—2015年乌鲁木齐市降温过程频数及强度气候特征[J].气象,2016,42(11):1351-1362.
[13]博尔楠,红都子,特列克.近60a阿勒泰地区不同等级降温日气候特征[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2017,11(1):41-49.
[14]中国国家标准化管理委员会.冷空气等级标准:GB/T20484-2006[S].北京:中国标准出版社,2006.
[15]曹兴,毛炜峄,尹冰霞,等.不同定义指标下的乌鲁木齐寒潮过程气候特征对比分析[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2017,11(3):31-37.
[16]马建勇,潘婕,姜江,等.北疆地区1955—2009年气温、降水变化特征的时间序列分析[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2012,6(2):18-24.
[17]庄晓翠,安冬亮,张林梅,等.阿勒泰地区寒潮天气特征分析及预报[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2010,4(1):32-35.
[18]张俊岚,牟欢,谢葭颖.北疆寒潮天气分析及预报[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2015,9(6):11-18.
[19]王飞,刘红霞,黄玲,等.1961—2012年塔城地区极端温度事件变化特征[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2015,9(2):59-66.
[2]黄焕卿,韩雪.东亚冷空气的变化趋势[J].海洋预报,2014,31(5):69-75.
[3]朱晨玉,黄菲,石运昊,等.中国近50年寒潮冷空气的时空特征及与北极海冰的关系[J].中国海洋大学学报,2014,44(12):12-20.
[4]周琳,孙照渤.1961-2010年我国冷空气的活动特征[J].大气科学学报,2015,38(3):342-353.
[5]毛炜峄,陈颖.1951-2015年乌鲁术齐市寒潮过程频数及强度气候特征[J].干旱气象,2016,34(3):403-411.
[6]段均泽,毛炜峄,黄逸静,等.近56 a伊犁河谷冷空气过程气候变化特征[J].干旱气象,2018,36(5):758-766.
[7]伍红雨,杜尧东.1961—2008年华南区域寒潮变化的气候特征[J].气候变化研究进展,2010,6(3):192-197.
[8]郑玉萍,宫恒瑞.乌鲁木齐市寒潮气候特征分析[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2015,9(6):56-61.
[9]白松竹,博尔楠·哈不都拉,谢秀琴.气候变暖背景下阿勒泰地区寒潮活动变化特征[J].冰川冻土,2015,37(2):387-394.
[10]刘宪锋,朱秀芳,潘耀忠,等.近53年内蒙古寒潮时空变化特征及其影响因素[J].地理学报,2014,69(7):1013-1024.
[11]肉孜·阿基,李如琦,唐冶.2011年初北疆强寒潮过程诊断分析[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2013.7(3):7-12.
[12]毛炜峄,白素琴,陈鹏翔.1951—2015年乌鲁木齐市降温过程频数及强度气候特征[J].气象,2016,42(11):1351-1362.
[13]博尔楠,红都子,特列克.近60a阿勒泰地区不同等级降温日气候特征[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2017,11(1):41-49.
[14]中国国家标准化管理委员会.冷空气等级标准:GB/T20484-2006[S].北京:中国标准出版社,2006.
[15]曹兴,毛炜峄,尹冰霞,等.不同定义指标下的乌鲁木齐寒潮过程气候特征对比分析[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2017,11(3):31-37.
[16]马建勇,潘婕,姜江,等.北疆地区1955—2009年气温、降水变化特征的时间序列分析[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2012,6(2):18-24.
[17]庄晓翠,安冬亮,张林梅,等.阿勒泰地区寒潮天气特征分析及预报[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2010,4(1):32-35.
[18]张俊岚,牟欢,谢葭颖.北疆寒潮天气分析及预报[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2015,9(6):11-18.
[19]王飞,刘红霞,黄玲,等.1961—2012年塔城地区极端温度事件变化特征[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2015,9(2):59-66.
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