行业集中度、分析师行业专长与预测准确性
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摘要
本文选取2008—2015年A股上市公司为研究样本,以企业信息披露的专有性成本为研究视角,实证检验了不同行业集中度下,分析师行业专长对盈余预测准确性的影响及其潜在机制。研究发现:首先,分析师行业专长有助于提高其盈余预测的准确性。其次,行业集中度越高,行业专长对于提升分析师盈余预测准确性的促进作用越显著。第三,基于被分析公司异质性的进一步研究发现,行业集中度与行业专长对分析师盈余预测准确性的互补作用主要集中在信息披露水平较低、专有性成本较高和产品市场掠夺风险较高的企业中。本文的研究结论对于理解市场集中度高的行业中分析师行业专长的重要性具有意义,也拓宽了我们关于分析师预测准确性影响因素的认识。
Due to the proprietary costs of disclosure, prior studies argue that industry concentration is associated with corporate disclosure. In more concentrated industries, firms are less likely to provide specific management forecast and separate business segment disclosure, because the related disclosure is more potentially useful to firms' product market rivals. It can also be argued that the information value is greater in more concentrated industries. Industry expert analysts tend to specialize in a specific industry, and thus they have superior ability in aggregating information from other individual firms in the industry. The disclosure by other individual firms in concentrated industries provides more substantive and less noisy information about future industry demands, and can play a larger role in earnings forecast. It is thus possible that in concentrated industries, industry expert analysts are more prone to take advantage of the joint knowledge of the firm and its peers to improve the processing of financial information and forecasting performance.To test this theoretical prediction, our paper empirically investigates how analysts' industry expertise affects their forecasting performance under varying degrees of industry concentration and its underlying mechanisms. Based on a sample of Chinese A-share listed firms over the period 2008 to2015, we find that the relative earnings accuracy of forecast by analysts with high industry expertise is significantly better than that by other analysts. Then we examine the impact of industry concentration on our analysis, and find that analysts' industry expertise translates into more accurate forecast in more concentrated industries. Furthermore, to understand the underlying channels driving the results, we investigate how firms' proprietary costs and information disclosure quality relate to the complementary effect of industry concentration and analysts' industry expertise on forecasting performance, and find that this complementary effect is mainly found in firms with lower information disclosure transparency,higher proprietary costs and higher product market predation. Taken together, these findings suggest that in poorer information environment of concentrated industries, the value-relevant information contained in disclosure by peer companies is more likely to be used by industry expert analysts, and hence, they have better forecast accuracy. Our paper highlights the importance of analysts' industry expertise for their earnings forecast, especially in concentrated industries, extending our understanding of the factors affecting analysts' forecast accuracy.
Due to the proprietary costs of disclosure, prior studies argue that industry concentration is associated with corporate disclosure. In more concentrated industries, firms are less likely to provide specific management forecast and separate business segment disclosure, because the related disclosure is more potentially useful to firms' product market rivals. It can also be argued that the information value is greater in more concentrated industries. Industry expert analysts tend to specialize in a specific industry, and thus they have superior ability in aggregating information from other individual firms in the industry. The disclosure by other individual firms in concentrated industries provides more substantive and less noisy information about future industry demands, and can play a larger role in earnings forecast. It is thus possible that in concentrated industries, industry expert analysts are more prone to take advantage of the joint knowledge of the firm and its peers to improve the processing of financial information and forecasting performance.To test this theoretical prediction, our paper empirically investigates how analysts' industry expertise affects their forecasting performance under varying degrees of industry concentration and its underlying mechanisms. Based on a sample of Chinese A-share listed firms over the period 2008 to2015, we find that the relative earnings accuracy of forecast by analysts with high industry expertise is significantly better than that by other analysts. Then we examine the impact of industry concentration on our analysis, and find that analysts' industry expertise translates into more accurate forecast in more concentrated industries. Furthermore, to understand the underlying channels driving the results, we investigate how firms' proprietary costs and information disclosure quality relate to the complementary effect of industry concentration and analysts' industry expertise on forecasting performance, and find that this complementary effect is mainly found in firms with lower information disclosure transparency,higher proprietary costs and higher product market predation. Taken together, these findings suggest that in poorer information environment of concentrated industries, the value-relevant information contained in disclosure by peer companies is more likely to be used by industry expert analysts, and hence, they have better forecast accuracy. Our paper highlights the importance of analysts' industry expertise for their earnings forecast, especially in concentrated industries, extending our understanding of the factors affecting analysts' forecast accuracy.
引文
[1]董望,陈俊,陈汉文.内部控制质量影响了分析师行为吗?——来自中国证券市场的经验证据[J].金融研究, 2017,(12):191–206.
[2]管总平,黄文锋.证券分析师特征、利益冲突与盈余预测准确性[J].中国会计评论, 2012,(4):371–394.
[3]刘永泽,高嵩.信息披露质量、分析师行业专长与预测准确性——来自我国深市A股的经验证据[J].会计研究, 2014,(12):60–65.
[4]刘永泽,高嵩.证券分析师行业专长、预测准确性与市场反应[J].经济管理, 2015,(6):87–97.
[5]王雄元,彭旋.稳定客户提高了分析师对企业盈余预测的准确性吗?[J].金融研究, 2016,(5):156–172.
[6]王雄元,喻长秋.专有化成本与公司自愿性信息披露——基于客户信息披露的分析[J].财经研究, 2014,(12):27–38.
[7]赵良玉,李增泉,刘军霞.管理层偏好、投资评级乐观性与私有信息获取[J].管理世界, 2013,(4):33–47.
[8]Ali A, Klasa S, Yeung E. Industry concentration and corporate disclosure policy[J]. Journal of Accounting and Economics,2014, 58(2–3):240–264.
[9]Bernard D. Is the risk of product market predation a cost of disclosure?[J]. Journal of Accounting and Economics, 2016,62(2–3):305–325.
[10]Bradley D, Gokkaya S, Liu X. Before an analyst becomes an analyst:Does industry experience matter?[J]. The Journal ofFinance, 2017, 72(2):751–792.
[11]Brown L D, Call A C, Clement M B, et al. Inside the “black box” of sell‐side financial analysts[J]. Journal of AccountingResearch, 2015, 53(1):1–47.
[12]Ellis J A, Fee C E, Thomas S E. Proprietary costs and the disclosure of information about customers[J]. Journal of AccountingResearch, 2012, 50(3):685–727.
[13]Guan Y Y, Wong M H F, Zhang Y. Analyst following along the supply chain[J]. Review of Accounting Studies, 2015, 20(1):210–241.
[14]Haw I M, Hu B B, Lee J J, et al. The impact of industry concentration on the market’s ability to anticipate future earnings:International evidence[J]. International Journal of Accounting&Information Management, 2016, 24(4):443–475.
[15]Hilary G, Shen R. The role of analysts in intra-industry information transfer[J]. The Accounting Review, 2013, 88(4):1265–1287.
[16]Hoberg G, Phillips G. Product market synergies and competition in mergers and acquisitions:A text-based analysis[J]. TheReview of Financial Studies, 2010, 23(10):3773–3811.
[17]Kadan O, Madureira L, Wang R, et al. Analysts’ industry expertise[J]. Journal of Accounting and Economics, 2012, 54(2–3):95–120.
[18]Keskek S, Myers L A, Omer T C, et al. The effects of disclosure and analyst regulations on the relevance of analystcharacteristics for explaining analyst forecast accuracy[J]. Journal of Business Finance&Accounting, 2017, 44(5–6):780–811.
[19]Lehavy R, Li F, Merkley K. The effect of annual report readability on analyst following and the properties of their earningsforecasts[J]. The Accounting Review, 2011, 86(3):1087–1115.
[20]Xu N H, Chan K C, Jiang X Y, et al. Do star analysts know more firm-specific information? Evidence from China[J]. Journalof Banking&Finance, 2013, 37(1):89–102.
①在对基于信息披露透明度进行分组时，我们按照深交所的信息披露考评结果来衡量公司信息披露透明度，回归样本中仅包含了深交所的上市公司，导致总体样本量大幅下降；其中信息披露考评结果分为A、B、C、D四个等级，若公司的考评结果为A或B则将其归类为信息披露质量高的公司，由于信息披露考评结果分为C、D的公司数量较少，信息披露透明度低的组样本数仅为6 413个。
[2]管总平,黄文锋.证券分析师特征、利益冲突与盈余预测准确性[J].中国会计评论, 2012,(4):371–394.
[3]刘永泽,高嵩.信息披露质量、分析师行业专长与预测准确性——来自我国深市A股的经验证据[J].会计研究, 2014,(12):60–65.
[4]刘永泽,高嵩.证券分析师行业专长、预测准确性与市场反应[J].经济管理, 2015,(6):87–97.
[5]王雄元,彭旋.稳定客户提高了分析师对企业盈余预测的准确性吗?[J].金融研究, 2016,(5):156–172.
[6]王雄元,喻长秋.专有化成本与公司自愿性信息披露——基于客户信息披露的分析[J].财经研究, 2014,(12):27–38.
[7]赵良玉,李增泉,刘军霞.管理层偏好、投资评级乐观性与私有信息获取[J].管理世界, 2013,(4):33–47.
[8]Ali A, Klasa S, Yeung E. Industry concentration and corporate disclosure policy[J]. Journal of Accounting and Economics,2014, 58(2–3):240–264.
[9]Bernard D. Is the risk of product market predation a cost of disclosure?[J]. Journal of Accounting and Economics, 2016,62(2–3):305–325.
[10]Bradley D, Gokkaya S, Liu X. Before an analyst becomes an analyst:Does industry experience matter?[J]. The Journal ofFinance, 2017, 72(2):751–792.
[11]Brown L D, Call A C, Clement M B, et al. Inside the “black box” of sell‐side financial analysts[J]. Journal of AccountingResearch, 2015, 53(1):1–47.
[12]Ellis J A, Fee C E, Thomas S E. Proprietary costs and the disclosure of information about customers[J]. Journal of AccountingResearch, 2012, 50(3):685–727.
[13]Guan Y Y, Wong M H F, Zhang Y. Analyst following along the supply chain[J]. Review of Accounting Studies, 2015, 20(1):210–241.
[14]Haw I M, Hu B B, Lee J J, et al. The impact of industry concentration on the market’s ability to anticipate future earnings:International evidence[J]. International Journal of Accounting&Information Management, 2016, 24(4):443–475.
[15]Hilary G, Shen R. The role of analysts in intra-industry information transfer[J]. The Accounting Review, 2013, 88(4):1265–1287.
[16]Hoberg G, Phillips G. Product market synergies and competition in mergers and acquisitions:A text-based analysis[J]. TheReview of Financial Studies, 2010, 23(10):3773–3811.
[17]Kadan O, Madureira L, Wang R, et al. Analysts’ industry expertise[J]. Journal of Accounting and Economics, 2012, 54(2–3):95–120.
[18]Keskek S, Myers L A, Omer T C, et al. The effects of disclosure and analyst regulations on the relevance of analystcharacteristics for explaining analyst forecast accuracy[J]. Journal of Business Finance&Accounting, 2017, 44(5–6):780–811.
[19]Lehavy R, Li F, Merkley K. The effect of annual report readability on analyst following and the properties of their earningsforecasts[J]. The Accounting Review, 2011, 86(3):1087–1115.
[20]Xu N H, Chan K C, Jiang X Y, et al. Do star analysts know more firm-specific information? Evidence from China[J]. Journalof Banking&Finance, 2013, 37(1):89–102.
①在对基于信息披露透明度进行分组时，我们按照深交所的信息披露考评结果来衡量公司信息披露透明度，回归样本中仅包含了深交所的上市公司，导致总体样本量大幅下降；其中信息披露考评结果分为A、B、C、D四个等级，若公司的考评结果为A或B则将其归类为信息披露质量高的公司，由于信息披露考评结果分为C、D的公司数量较少，信息披露透明度低的组样本数仅为6 413个。
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