人口结构变化如何影响对外直接投资
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摘要
文章提出了人口结构变化通过影响资本劳动比来影响对外直接投资的理论假说,基于2003-2016年中国省际面板数据,实证分析了人口结构变化对对外直接投资的影响和内在机制。研究结果表明:人口结构变化与对外直接投资呈先增加后减少的倒U型关系。进一步考察人口结构变化影响对外直接投资的作用机制发现,人口结构变化对资本劳动比存在显著的倒U型影响,资本劳动比与对外直接投资显著正相关,验证了资本劳动比是人口结构变化影响对外直接投资的主要作用机制。
This paper presents the theoretical hypothesis that the demographic transition affects OFDI by influencing the capi?tal-labor ratio,and based on the provincial panel data of China from 2003 to 2016,empirically investigates the influence and internal mechanism of demographic transition on OFDI. The study results show that there is an inverted U-shaped relationship which shows some robustness between demographic transition and OFDI. A further study on the mechanism of demographic transition on OFDI finds that the demographic transition has a significant inverted U-shaped effect on the capital-labor ratio.The capital-labor ratio is significantly positively correlated with OFDI,which verifies that the capital-labor ratio is the main mechanism of demographic transition on OFDI.
This paper presents the theoretical hypothesis that the demographic transition affects OFDI by influencing the capi?tal-labor ratio,and based on the provincial panel data of China from 2003 to 2016,empirically investigates the influence and internal mechanism of demographic transition on OFDI. The study results show that there is an inverted U-shaped relationship which shows some robustness between demographic transition and OFDI. A further study on the mechanism of demographic transition on OFDI finds that the demographic transition has a significant inverted U-shaped effect on the capital-labor ratio.The capital-labor ratio is significantly positively correlated with OFDI,which verifies that the capital-labor ratio is the main mechanism of demographic transition on OFDI.
引文
[1]BORSCH-SUPAN A H,LUDWIG A,WINTER J K.Aging and International Capital Flows[J].Health Information&Libraries Journal,2002,14(4):174-175.
[2]BROOKS R.Population Aging and Global Capital Flows in a Parallel Universe[J].IMF Staff Papers,2003,50(2):200-221.
[3]DOMEIJ D,FLODEN M.Population Aging and International Capital Flows[J].International Economic Review,2006,47(3):1013-1032.
[4]吕建兴,孙文凯.人口老龄化、养老金与国际资本流动:影响机制与实证研究[J].经济理论与经济管理,2015,35(10):20-34.
[5]刘永平,陆铭.从家庭养老角度看老龄化的中国经济能否持续增长[J].世界经济,2008,31(1):65-77.
[6]胡翠,许召元.人口老龄化对储蓄率影响的实证研究--来自中国家庭的数据[J].经济学(季刊),2014,13(4):1345-1364.
[7]汪伟,艾春荣.人口老龄化与中国储蓄率的动态演化[J].管理世界,2015(6):47-62.
[8]ANDO A,MODIGLIANI F.The“Life Cycle”Hypothesis of Saving:Aggregate Implications and Tests[J].American Economic Review,1963,53(1):55-84.
[9]CUTLER D M,POTERBA J M,SHEINER L M,et al.An Aging Society:Opportunity or Challenge?[J].Brookings Papers on Economic Activity,1990(1):1-73.
[10]董丽霞,赵文哲.人口结构与储蓄率:基于内生人口结构的研究[J].金融研究,2011(3):1-14.
[11]胡鞍钢,刘生龙,马振国.人口老龄化、人口增长与经济增长--来自中国省际面板数据的实证证据[J].人口研究,2012,36(3):14-26.
[12]陈彦斌,郭豫媚,姚一旻.人口老龄化对中国高储蓄的影响[J].金融研究,2014(1):71-84.
[13]汪伟.人口老龄化、生育政策调整与中国经济增长[J].经济学(季刊),2016,16(1):67-96.
[14]耿志祥,孙祁祥,郑伟.人口老龄化、资产价格与资本积累[J].经济研究,2016,51(9):29-43.
[15]龚锋,余锦亮.人口老龄化、税收负担与财政可持续性[J].经济研究,2015,50(8):16-30.
[16]BORSCH-SUPAN A H.The Impact of Global Aging on Labor,Product,and Capital Markets[J].Population and Development Review,2008,34(2):52-77.
[17]汪伟.经济增长、人口结构变化与中国高储蓄[J].经济学(季刊),2009,9(1):29-52.
[18]蔡昉.人口转变、人口红利与经济增长可持续性--兼论充分就业如何促进经济增长[J].人口研究,2004,28(2):2-9.
[19]蔡昉.人口转变、人口红利与刘易斯转折点[J].经济研究,2010,45(4):4-13.
[20]FEYRER J.Demographics and Productivity[J].The Review of Economics and Statistics,2007,89(1):100-109.
[21]FEYRER J.Aggregate Evidence on the Link between Age Structure and Productivity[J].Population and Development Review,2008,34(2):78-99.
[22]汤向俊,任保平.劳动力有限供给、人口转变与经济增长可持续性[J].南开经济研究,2010(5):84-94.
[23]BLOOM D E,CANNING D,FINK G.Implications of Population Ageing for Economic Growth[J].Oxford Review of Economic Policy,2010,26(4):583-612.
[24]陆旸,蔡昉.人口结构变化对潜在增长率的影响:中国和日本的比较[J].世界经济,2014,37(1):3-29.
[25]郑伟,林山君,陈凯.中国人口老龄化的特征趋势及对经济增长的潜在影响[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2014,31(8):3-20.
[26]MAESTAS N,KATHLEEN J M,POWELL D.The Effect of Population Aging on Economic Growth,the Labor Force and Productivity[R].NBER Working Paper No.22452,2016.
[27]黄先海,杨君,肖明月.资本深化、技术进步与资本回报率:基于美国的经验分析[J].世界经济,2012,35(9):3-20.
[28]白重恩,张琼.中国的资本回报率及其影响因素分析[J].世界经济,2014,37(10):3-30.
[29]柏培文,许捷.中国省际资本回报率与投资过度[J].经济研究,2017,52(10):37-52.
[30]许捷,柏培文.中国资本回报率嬗变之谜[J].中国工业经济,2017(7):43-61.
[31]DUNNING J H.Explaining the International Direct Investment Position of Countries:Towards a Dynamic or Developmental Approach[J].Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv,1981,117(1):30-64.
[32]宫汝凯,李洪亚.技术进步、经济结构转型与中国对外直接投资:基于2003-2012年的证据[J].南开经济研究,2016(6):56-77.
[33]干春晖,郑若谷,余典范.中国产业结构变迁对经济增长和波动的影响[J].经济研究,2011,46(5):4-16.
[34]DUNNING J H,KIM C,LIN J.Incorporating Trade into the Investment Development Path:A Case Study of Korea and Taiwan[J].Oxford Development Studies,2001,29(2):145-154.
[35]BUSSE M,HEFEKER C.Political Risk,Institution and Foreign Direct Investment[J].European Journal of Political Economy,2007,23(2):397-415.
[36]HOLZ C A,SUN Y.Physical Capital Estimates for China’s Provinces,1952-2015 and Beyond[R].Cesifo Working Paper,2017.
[37]单豪杰.中国资本存量K的再估算:1952~2006年[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2008,25(10):17-31.
(1)鉴于篇幅约束,稳健性检验的回归结果不再具体列出,需要者可向作者索取。
[2]BROOKS R.Population Aging and Global Capital Flows in a Parallel Universe[J].IMF Staff Papers,2003,50(2):200-221.
[3]DOMEIJ D,FLODEN M.Population Aging and International Capital Flows[J].International Economic Review,2006,47(3):1013-1032.
[4]吕建兴,孙文凯.人口老龄化、养老金与国际资本流动:影响机制与实证研究[J].经济理论与经济管理,2015,35(10):20-34.
[5]刘永平,陆铭.从家庭养老角度看老龄化的中国经济能否持续增长[J].世界经济,2008,31(1):65-77.
[6]胡翠,许召元.人口老龄化对储蓄率影响的实证研究--来自中国家庭的数据[J].经济学(季刊),2014,13(4):1345-1364.
[7]汪伟,艾春荣.人口老龄化与中国储蓄率的动态演化[J].管理世界,2015(6):47-62.
[8]ANDO A,MODIGLIANI F.The“Life Cycle”Hypothesis of Saving:Aggregate Implications and Tests[J].American Economic Review,1963,53(1):55-84.
[9]CUTLER D M,POTERBA J M,SHEINER L M,et al.An Aging Society:Opportunity or Challenge?[J].Brookings Papers on Economic Activity,1990(1):1-73.
[10]董丽霞,赵文哲.人口结构与储蓄率:基于内生人口结构的研究[J].金融研究,2011(3):1-14.
[11]胡鞍钢,刘生龙,马振国.人口老龄化、人口增长与经济增长--来自中国省际面板数据的实证证据[J].人口研究,2012,36(3):14-26.
[12]陈彦斌,郭豫媚,姚一旻.人口老龄化对中国高储蓄的影响[J].金融研究,2014(1):71-84.
[13]汪伟.人口老龄化、生育政策调整与中国经济增长[J].经济学(季刊),2016,16(1):67-96.
[14]耿志祥,孙祁祥,郑伟.人口老龄化、资产价格与资本积累[J].经济研究,2016,51(9):29-43.
[15]龚锋,余锦亮.人口老龄化、税收负担与财政可持续性[J].经济研究,2015,50(8):16-30.
[16]BORSCH-SUPAN A H.The Impact of Global Aging on Labor,Product,and Capital Markets[J].Population and Development Review,2008,34(2):52-77.
[17]汪伟.经济增长、人口结构变化与中国高储蓄[J].经济学(季刊),2009,9(1):29-52.
[18]蔡昉.人口转变、人口红利与经济增长可持续性--兼论充分就业如何促进经济增长[J].人口研究,2004,28(2):2-9.
[19]蔡昉.人口转变、人口红利与刘易斯转折点[J].经济研究,2010,45(4):4-13.
[20]FEYRER J.Demographics and Productivity[J].The Review of Economics and Statistics,2007,89(1):100-109.
[21]FEYRER J.Aggregate Evidence on the Link between Age Structure and Productivity[J].Population and Development Review,2008,34(2):78-99.
[22]汤向俊,任保平.劳动力有限供给、人口转变与经济增长可持续性[J].南开经济研究,2010(5):84-94.
[23]BLOOM D E,CANNING D,FINK G.Implications of Population Ageing for Economic Growth[J].Oxford Review of Economic Policy,2010,26(4):583-612.
[24]陆旸,蔡昉.人口结构变化对潜在增长率的影响:中国和日本的比较[J].世界经济,2014,37(1):3-29.
[25]郑伟,林山君,陈凯.中国人口老龄化的特征趋势及对经济增长的潜在影响[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2014,31(8):3-20.
[26]MAESTAS N,KATHLEEN J M,POWELL D.The Effect of Population Aging on Economic Growth,the Labor Force and Productivity[R].NBER Working Paper No.22452,2016.
[27]黄先海,杨君,肖明月.资本深化、技术进步与资本回报率:基于美国的经验分析[J].世界经济,2012,35(9):3-20.
[28]白重恩,张琼.中国的资本回报率及其影响因素分析[J].世界经济,2014,37(10):3-30.
[29]柏培文,许捷.中国省际资本回报率与投资过度[J].经济研究,2017,52(10):37-52.
[30]许捷,柏培文.中国资本回报率嬗变之谜[J].中国工业经济,2017(7):43-61.
[31]DUNNING J H.Explaining the International Direct Investment Position of Countries:Towards a Dynamic or Developmental Approach[J].Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv,1981,117(1):30-64.
[32]宫汝凯,李洪亚.技术进步、经济结构转型与中国对外直接投资:基于2003-2012年的证据[J].南开经济研究,2016(6):56-77.
[33]干春晖,郑若谷,余典范.中国产业结构变迁对经济增长和波动的影响[J].经济研究,2011,46(5):4-16.
[34]DUNNING J H,KIM C,LIN J.Incorporating Trade into the Investment Development Path:A Case Study of Korea and Taiwan[J].Oxford Development Studies,2001,29(2):145-154.
[35]BUSSE M,HEFEKER C.Political Risk,Institution and Foreign Direct Investment[J].European Journal of Political Economy,2007,23(2):397-415.
[36]HOLZ C A,SUN Y.Physical Capital Estimates for China’s Provinces,1952-2015 and Beyond[R].Cesifo Working Paper,2017.
[37]单豪杰.中国资本存量K的再估算:1952~2006年[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2008,25(10):17-31.
(1)鉴于篇幅约束,稳健性检验的回归结果不再具体列出,需要者可向作者索取。