基于失效概率的老龄油气管道判废方法
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摘要
服役年限较长的老龄油气管道事故频繁,结构安全性低,运维成本高,需要做废弃处理。提出了一种基于失效概率的老龄管道判废方法:广泛调研国内外油气管道事故数据,参考事故频率数据,推荐了管道基本失效概率,以目标管道或同期建设、运营环境相似的管道事故历史数据计算的失效风险概率作为判废评估指标,通过无量纲化的风险系数给出老龄管道废弃指导意见。该方法可实现油气管道定量判废评估,有效解决老龄管道的判废问题。
Old oil & gas pipelines which have been in service for a longer time tend to suffer accidents frequently and their structural safety is low with high operating costs, so they shall be treated as the abandonment. In this paper, an abandonment judgment method based on failure probability for old pipelines was proposed as follows. Firstly, after the data of oil & gas pipeline accidents at home and abroad are extensively investigated, referring to the data of accident frequency, the basic pipeline failure probability is recommended. Then, the failure probability is calculated based on the historical accident data of the target pipeline or the pipeline with the contemporaneous construction and similar operation environment, and it is used as the evaluation index of abandonment judgment. Finally, the guidance for abandonment of old pipeline is provided by using the dimensionless risk coefficient. By virtue of this method, the quantitative abandonment judgment and evaluation of oil & gas pipeline can realize and the problem related with the abandonment judgment of old pipelines can be solved effectively.
Old oil & gas pipelines which have been in service for a longer time tend to suffer accidents frequently and their structural safety is low with high operating costs, so they shall be treated as the abandonment. In this paper, an abandonment judgment method based on failure probability for old pipelines was proposed as follows. Firstly, after the data of oil & gas pipeline accidents at home and abroad are extensively investigated, referring to the data of accident frequency, the basic pipeline failure probability is recommended. Then, the failure probability is calculated based on the historical accident data of the target pipeline or the pipeline with the contemporaneous construction and similar operation environment, and it is used as the evaluation index of abandonment judgment. Finally, the guidance for abandonment of old pipeline is provided by using the dimensionless risk coefficient. By virtue of this method, the quantitative abandonment judgment and evaluation of oil & gas pipeline can realize and the problem related with the abandonment judgment of old pipelines can be solved effectively.
引文
[1]帅健.美国油气管道事故及其启示[J].油气储运,2010,29(11):806-809.SHUAI J.Oil and gas pipeline accidents in US and their inspiration[J].Oil&Gas Storage and Transportation,2010,29(11):806-809.
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[3]王红菊,祝悫智,张延萍.全球油气管道建设概况[J].油气储运,2015,34(1):15-18.WANG H J,ZHU Q Z,ZHANG Y P.Overview of oil and gas pipelines in the world[J].Oil&Gas Storage and Transportation,2015,34(1):15-18.
[4]高鹏,王培鸿,杨耀辉,等.2015年中国油气管道建设新进展[J].国际石油经济,2016,24(3):60-65.GAO P,WANG P H,YANG Y H,et al.China’s oil and gas pipeline construction in 2015[J].International Petroleum Economics,2016,24(3):60-65.
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[7]陈振华,孙万磊,范国宾,等.美国和加拿大油气管道判废经验启示[J].油气储运,2017,36(2):138-143.CHEN Z H,SUN W L,FAN G B,et al.Enlightenments in the discrimination of oil/gas pipeline abandonment in the US and Canada[J].Oil&Gas Storage and Transportation,2017,36(2):138-143.
[8]陈振华,刘萍萍,陈新华,等.油气管道判废的相关问题[J].油气储运,2015,34(12):1267-1271.CHEN Z H,LIU P P,CHEN X H,et al.Judgment of oil and gas pipeline abandonment[J].Oil&Gas Storage and Transportation,2015,34(12):1267-1271.
[9]帅健,单克.基于失效数据的油气管道定量风险评价方法[J].天然气工业,2018,38(9):129-138.SHUAI J,SHAN K.A quantitative risk assessment method for oil and gas pipelines based on failure data[J].Natural Gas Industry,2018,38(9):129-138.
[10]单克,帅健,张思弘.基于修正因子的油气管道失效概率评估[J].中国安全科学学报,2016,26(1):87-93.SHAN K,SHUAI J,ZHANG S H.Adjustment factors based assessment of oil and gas pipelines failure probability[J].China Safety Science Journal,2016,26(1):87-93.
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[17]DAVIS P M,DIAZ J M,GAMBARDELLA F,et al.Performance of European cross-country oil pipelines statistical summary of reported spillages in 2016 and since 1971:Report No.6/18[R].Brussels:Conservation of Clean Air and Water in Europe,2018:3-11.
[18]胡灯明,骆晖.国内外天然气管道事故分析[J].石油工业技术监督,2009,25(9):8-12.HU D M,LUO H.The analysis of accidents on foreign and domestic natural gas pipelines[J].Technology Supervision in Petroleum Industry,2009,25(9):8-12.
[19]狄彦,帅健,王晓霖,等.油气管道事故原因分析及分类方法研究[J].中国安全科学学报,2013,23(7):109-115.DI Y,SHUAI J,WANG X L,et al.Study on methods for classifying oil&gas pipeline incidents[J].China Safety Science Journal,2013,23(7):109-115.
[20]Transportation Safety Board of Canada.Statistical summary:Pipeline occurrences in 2017[R/EB].(2018-06-28)[2019-01-22].http://www.bst-tsb.gc.ca/eng/stats/pipeline/2017/ssep-sspo-2017.asp.
[21]潘家华.我国近期油气储运事业的发展及几点建议[C].北京:全国油气储运技术交流研讨会,2002:1-6.PAN J H.The recent development of China’s oil&gas storage and transportation industry and some suggestions[C].Beijing:National Oil and Gas Storage Technology Seminar,2002:1-6.
[22]文斌.四川省输气管道安全管理现状及对策研究[D].成都:西南交通大学,2015:3-16.WEN B.The problems and countermeasures of gas pipeline safety management-in Sichuan province as an example[D].Chengdu:Southwest Jiaotong University,2015:3-16.
[23]解乃刚.埋地钢管判废方法[J].城市管理与科技,1994(2):35-40.XIE N G.A method for judgment of buried steel pipeline[J].Urban Management and Science&Technology,1994(2):35-40.
[24]谭开忍,肖熙.基于全生命周期的海底管线缺陷评估的研究[J].中国海洋平台,2005,20(6):27-29.TAN K R,XIAO X.The evaluation for defect of submarine pipeline based on full life cycle[J].China Offshore Platform,2005,20(6):27-29.
[25]燕冰川,冯庆善,王春明,等.基于检测与评价的管道安全运行寿命评估方法[J].金属热处理,2015,40(增刊1):499-503.YAN B C,FENG Q S,WANG C M,et al.Evaluation method for safe operation life of pipelines based on inspection and evaluation[J].Heat Treatment of Metals,2015,40(S1):499-503.
[2]周建新,吴轩,郭再富.美国管道事故对我国油气管道安全的启示[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2014,10(增刊1):73-78.ZHOU J X,WU X,GUO Z F.Enlightenment from incidents of oil and gas pipeline in USA[J].Journal of Safety Science and Technology,2014,10(S1):73-78.
[3]王红菊,祝悫智,张延萍.全球油气管道建设概况[J].油气储运,2015,34(1):15-18.WANG H J,ZHU Q Z,ZHANG Y P.Overview of oil and gas pipelines in the world[J].Oil&Gas Storage and Transportation,2015,34(1):15-18.
[4]高鹏,王培鸿,杨耀辉,等.2015年中国油气管道建设新进展[J].国际石油经济,2016,24(3):60-65.GAO P,WANG P H,YANG Y H,et al.China’s oil and gas pipeline construction in 2015[J].International Petroleum Economics,2016,24(3):60-65.
[5]杜艳,谢英,王子豪,等.天然气管道事故分析[J].管道技术与设备,2009(2):16-18.DU Y,XIE Y,WANG Z H,et al.Accident analysis of gas pipeline[J].Pipeline Technique and Equipment,2009(2):16-18.
[6]贺娅娅,甄莹,曹宇光.油气管道判废方法研究进展[J].油气储运,2018,37(8):850-856.HE Y Y,ZHEN Y,CAO Y G.Research progress of the abandonment discrimination methods on the of oil and gas pipelines[J].Oil&Gas Storage and Transportation,2018,37(8):850-856.
[7]陈振华,孙万磊,范国宾,等.美国和加拿大油气管道判废经验启示[J].油气储运,2017,36(2):138-143.CHEN Z H,SUN W L,FAN G B,et al.Enlightenments in the discrimination of oil/gas pipeline abandonment in the US and Canada[J].Oil&Gas Storage and Transportation,2017,36(2):138-143.
[8]陈振华,刘萍萍,陈新华,等.油气管道判废的相关问题[J].油气储运,2015,34(12):1267-1271.CHEN Z H,LIU P P,CHEN X H,et al.Judgment of oil and gas pipeline abandonment[J].Oil&Gas Storage and Transportation,2015,34(12):1267-1271.
[9]帅健,单克.基于失效数据的油气管道定量风险评价方法[J].天然气工业,2018,38(9):129-138.SHUAI J,SHAN K.A quantitative risk assessment method for oil and gas pipelines based on failure data[J].Natural Gas Industry,2018,38(9):129-138.
[10]单克,帅健,张思弘.基于修正因子的油气管道失效概率评估[J].中国安全科学学报,2016,26(1):87-93.SHAN K,SHUAI J,ZHANG S H.Adjustment factors based assessment of oil and gas pipelines failure probability[J].China Safety Science Journal,2016,26(1):87-93.
[11]European Gas Pipeline Incident Data Group.Gas pipeline incidents,10th report of the European Gas Pipeline Incident Data Group:EGIG 17.R.0395[R/EB].(2018-03-09)[2019-01-22].https://www.egig.eu/.
[12]Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration.Pipeline incidents and mileage reports[R/EB].(2018-12-02)[2019-01-22].http://phmsa.dot.gov/pipeline/library/data-stats.
[13]Natural Resources Canada.Pipeline safety:pipelines across Canada[R/EB].(2016-07-25)[2019-01-22].https://www.nrcan.gc.ca/energy/infrastructure/18856.
[14]European Gas Pipeline Incident Data Group.Gas pipeline incidents,7th report of the European Gas Pipeline Incident Data Group:EGIG 08.TV-B.0502[R/EB].(2008-12-05)[2019-01-22].https://www.egig.eu/.
[15]European Gas Pipeline Incident Data Group.Gas pipeline incidents,8th report of the European Gas Pipeline Incident Data Group:EGIG 11.R.0402[R/EB].(2011-12-04)[2019-01-22].https://www.egig.eu/.
[16]European Gas Pipeline Incident Data Group.Gas pipeline incidents,9th report of the European Gas Pipeline Incident Data Group:EGIG 14.R.0403[R/EB].(2015-04-02)[2019-01-22].https://www.egig.eu/.
[17]DAVIS P M,DIAZ J M,GAMBARDELLA F,et al.Performance of European cross-country oil pipelines statistical summary of reported spillages in 2016 and since 1971:Report No.6/18[R].Brussels:Conservation of Clean Air and Water in Europe,2018:3-11.
[18]胡灯明,骆晖.国内外天然气管道事故分析[J].石油工业技术监督,2009,25(9):8-12.HU D M,LUO H.The analysis of accidents on foreign and domestic natural gas pipelines[J].Technology Supervision in Petroleum Industry,2009,25(9):8-12.
[19]狄彦,帅健,王晓霖,等.油气管道事故原因分析及分类方法研究[J].中国安全科学学报,2013,23(7):109-115.DI Y,SHUAI J,WANG X L,et al.Study on methods for classifying oil&gas pipeline incidents[J].China Safety Science Journal,2013,23(7):109-115.
[20]Transportation Safety Board of Canada.Statistical summary:Pipeline occurrences in 2017[R/EB].(2018-06-28)[2019-01-22].http://www.bst-tsb.gc.ca/eng/stats/pipeline/2017/ssep-sspo-2017.asp.
[21]潘家华.我国近期油气储运事业的发展及几点建议[C].北京:全国油气储运技术交流研讨会,2002:1-6.PAN J H.The recent development of China’s oil&gas storage and transportation industry and some suggestions[C].Beijing:National Oil and Gas Storage Technology Seminar,2002:1-6.
[22]文斌.四川省输气管道安全管理现状及对策研究[D].成都:西南交通大学,2015:3-16.WEN B.The problems and countermeasures of gas pipeline safety management-in Sichuan province as an example[D].Chengdu:Southwest Jiaotong University,2015:3-16.
[23]解乃刚.埋地钢管判废方法[J].城市管理与科技,1994(2):35-40.XIE N G.A method for judgment of buried steel pipeline[J].Urban Management and Science&Technology,1994(2):35-40.
[24]谭开忍,肖熙.基于全生命周期的海底管线缺陷评估的研究[J].中国海洋平台,2005,20(6):27-29.TAN K R,XIAO X.The evaluation for defect of submarine pipeline based on full life cycle[J].China Offshore Platform,2005,20(6):27-29.
[25]燕冰川,冯庆善,王春明,等.基于检测与评价的管道安全运行寿命评估方法[J].金属热处理,2015,40(增刊1):499-503.YAN B C,FENG Q S,WANG C M,et al.Evaluation method for safe operation life of pipelines based on inspection and evaluation[J].Heat Treatment of Metals,2015,40(S1):499-503.
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