中国冰冻圈变化的适应研究:进展与展望
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摘要
冰冻圈变化的适应研究是冰冻圈科学领域的新兴研究方向,是当今自然科学与社会科学交叉融合跨学科集成研究的典型代表。起步于2007年的中国冰冻圈变化适应研究,经历了早期的探索,研究重点由评价脆弱性发展为量化冰冻圈变化的影响,形成以影响/风险—脆弱性—适应全链条的完善的研究体系,研究方法突破传统的指标体系赋权法的不足,初步实现了定量化,有机结合影响/风险、脆弱性、适应三方面的研究结果,使冰冻圈变化的适应措施由偏重宏观性、普适性开始转向更有针对性。未来中国冰冻圈变化的适应研究应拓展、完善和深化现有的理论体系,构建冰冻圈与社会经济耦合模型,科学量化冰冻圈全要素变化的影响,建立不同利益相关者与科学家共同参与的研究新模式,科学有效应对与适应冰冻圈变化及其影响。
The adaptation of cryosphere change is a new research direction in the field of cryosphere science,and a typical representative of the interdisciplinary cross-integration research of natural and social sciences nowadays. The study on the adaptation of cryosphere changes in China, which started in 2007, has experienced a ten-year development. At present, the emphasis of the study has changed from the evaluation of vulnerability into the quantification of impacts of the cryosphere change with the improvement of knowledge level. The content of the study, including impacts, risks, vulnerability and adaptation of cryosphere change, is more perfect and systematic. The study method breaks through the shortcomings of the traditional index system weighting method and realizes the quantification preliminarily. The reasonable combination of research results of impacts, risks,vulnerability and adaptation in cryosphere change makes the adaptation measures of the cryosphere change more targeted. In the future, the existing theoretical system of the cryosphere changes adaptation in China should be expanded, improved and deepened, the coupling model of the cryosphere and the society economy should be constructed in order to scientifically quantify the effects of the change of the whole cryosphere elements, and a new research model involving different stakeholders and scientists should be established to cope with and adapt to the cryosphere changes and their effects.
The adaptation of cryosphere change is a new research direction in the field of cryosphere science,and a typical representative of the interdisciplinary cross-integration research of natural and social sciences nowadays. The study on the adaptation of cryosphere changes in China, which started in 2007, has experienced a ten-year development. At present, the emphasis of the study has changed from the evaluation of vulnerability into the quantification of impacts of the cryosphere change with the improvement of knowledge level. The content of the study, including impacts, risks, vulnerability and adaptation of cryosphere change, is more perfect and systematic. The study method breaks through the shortcomings of the traditional index system weighting method and realizes the quantification preliminarily. The reasonable combination of research results of impacts, risks,vulnerability and adaptation in cryosphere change makes the adaptation measures of the cryosphere change more targeted. In the future, the existing theoretical system of the cryosphere changes adaptation in China should be expanded, improved and deepened, the coupling model of the cryosphere and the society economy should be constructed in order to scientifically quantify the effects of the change of the whole cryosphere elements, and a new research model involving different stakeholders and scientists should be established to cope with and adapt to the cryosphere changes and their effects.
引文
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(1)SRES 情景指 IPCC 第三、四次评估报告中使用的排放情景，本文使用的是 SRES A1B 气候情景。
[2]Reid W V, Chen D, Goldfarb L, et al. Earth system science for global sustainability:grand challenges[J]. Science, 2010, 330:916-917
[3]Futurearth. Research for global sustainability[EB/OL]. 2016[2018-05-20]. http://www.futureearth.org/
[4]秦大河,丁永建.冰冻圈变化及其影响研究:现状、趋势及关键问题[J].气候变化研究进展, 2009, 5(4):187-195
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[7]杨建平,丁永建,方一平,等.冰冻圈及其变化的脆弱性与适应研究体系[J].地球科学进展, 2015, 30(5):517-529
[8]Wang S J, Qin D H, Xiao C D. Moraine-dammed lake distribution and outburst flood risk in the Chinese Himalaya[J]. Journal of Glaciology,2015, 61(225):115-126
[9]效存德,王世金,秦大河.冰冻圈服务功能及其价值评估初探[J].气候变化研究进展, 2016, 21(1):45-52
[10]Qin D H,Ding Y J,Xiao C D,et al.Cryospheric science:research framework and disciplinary system[J]. National Science Review, 2018,5:255-268
[11]王世金,汪宙峰.冰湖溃决灾害综合风险评估与管控:以中国喜马拉雅山区为例[M].北京:中国社会科学出版社, 2017
[12]秦大河,姚檀栋,丁永建,等.冰冻圈科学概论[M].北京:科学出版社, 2018
[13]IPCC.Climate change 1990:the IPCC scientific assessment[M].Cambridge:Cambridge University Press, 1990
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[15]IPCC.Climate change 2001:the scientific basis[M].Cambridge:Cambridge University Press, 2001
[16]IPCC.Climate change 2007:the physical science basis[M].Cambridge:Cambridge University Press, 2007
[17]CliC. Climate and cryosphere[R/OL]. 2001[2018-05-20]. http://www.climate-cryosphere.org/index.php/about
[18]Hugh F, Olav S. Changing cold environments:a Canadian perspective[M]. Chichester:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd, 2012
[19] Huggel C,Scheel M, Albrecht F, et al. Aframe work for the science contribution in climate adaptation:experiences from science-policy processes in the Andes[J]. Environmental Science&Policy, 2015, 47:80-94
[20] IPCC. Climate change 2014:impacts, adaptation and vulnerability[M].Cambridge:Cambridge University Press, 2014
[21] World Bank. Andeancountries:adaptation to the impact of rapid glacier retreat in the tropical Andes project:restructuring:main report(English)[M/OL]. Washington DC:World Bank, 2011[2018-05-20].http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/711821468194336875/Main-report
[22] AMAP. Snow, water, ice and permafrost in the Arctic(SWIPA):climate change and the cryosphere[R]. Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme(AMAP), Oslo, Norway, 2011
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[24] AMAP. Adaptation actions for a changing Arctic I:perspectives from the Barents area[R]. Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme(AMAP),Oslo, Norway, 2017
[25] AMAP. Adaptation actions for a changing Arctic II:perspectives from the Bering-Chukchi-Beaufort region[R]. Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme(AMAP), Oslo, Norway, 2017
[26] AMAP. Adaptation actions for a changing Arctic III:Perspectives from the Baffin Bay/Davis Strait region[R]. Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme(AMAP), Oslo, Norway, 2017
[27] OlavS,Richard E J K.The cryosphere and global environmental change[M]. USA, UK, Australia:Blackwell Publishing, 2007
[28] Vergara W, Deeb A M, Valencia A M, et al. Economic impacts of rapid glacier retreat in the Andes[J]. Eos, 2007, 88:261-264
[29] Hegglin E, Huggel C. An integrated assessment of vulnerability to glacial hazards:a case study in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru[J]. Mountain Research Development, 2008, 28:299-309
[30] Carey M, Huggel C, Bury J, et al. An integrated socio-environmental framework for glacier hazard management and climate change adaptation:lessons from Lake 513, Cordillera Blanca, Peru[J]. Climatic Change, 2012, 112:733-767
[31] HillM. Adaptive capacity of water governance:cases from the Alps and the Andes[J]. Mountain Research Development, 2013, 33:248-259
[32] Haeberli W, Whiteman C. Snow and ice-related hazards,risksand disasters[M]. Amsterdam:Elsevier, 2014:1-812
[33] Committee on Himalayan Glaciers, Hydrology, Climate Change, and Implications for Water Security. Himalayan glaciers:climate change,water resources, and water security[M]. Washington DC:The National Academies Press, 2012
[34] Bhadwal S,Groot A,Balakrishnan S,et al. A daptation to changing water resource availability in Northern India with respect to Himalayan Glacier retreat and changing monsoons using participatory approaches[J]. Science of the Total Environment, 2013, 468-469(S):152-161
[35] Streletskiy D, Anisimov O, Vasiliev A. Permafrost degradation[M]//Haeberli W, Whiteman C.Snow and ice-related hazards,risksand disasters. Amsterdam:Elsevier, 2014:303-344
[36] Huggel C,Haeberli W,K??b A,et al. An assessment procedure for glacial hazards in the Swiss Alps[J]. Canadian Geotechnical Journal,2004, 41:1068-1083
[37] Grover V I, Axel B,Jürgen H B,et al.Impact of global changes on mountains:responses and adaptation[M]. Boca Taton, London, New York:CRC Press, 2015
[38] Carey M, Baraer M, Mark B G, et al. Toward hydro-social modeling:merging human variables and the social sciences with climate-glacier runoff models(Santa River, Peru)[J]. Journal of Hydrology, 2014, 518:60-70
[39] Olefs M,Obleitner F.Numerical simulations on artificial reduction of snow and ice ablation[J]. Water Resources Research,2007,43,W06405
[40] He Y, Wu Y F, Liu Q F. Vulnerability assessment of areas affected by Chinese cryospheric changes in future climate change scenarios[J].Chinese Science Bulletin, 2012, 57:4784-4790
[41] McDowell G, Ford J D, Lehner B, et al. Climate-related hydrological change and human vulnerability in remote mountain regions:acase study from Khumbu, Nepal[J]. Regional Environment Change, 2013:1-12
[42] Carey M,McDowell G,Huggel C,et al.Integrated approaches to adaptation and disaster risk reduction in dynamic socio-cryospheric systems[M]//Haeberli W, Whiteman C. Snow and ice-related hazards,risks and disasters. Amsterdam:Elsevier, 2014:219-261
[43]杨建平,张廷军.我国冰冻圈及其变化的脆弱性与评估方法[J].冰川冻土, 2010, 32(6):1084-1096
[44]杨建平,李曼,杨岁桥,等.中国冰川脆弱性现状评价与未来预估[J].冰川冻土, 2013, 35(5):1077-1087
[45]杨建平,杨岁桥,李曼,等.中国冻土对气候变化的脆弱性[J].冰川冻土, 2013, 35(6):1436-1445
[46]邓茂芝.基于冰川变化的新疆典型流域水资源脆弱性及其适应研究[D].北京:中国科学院研究生院博士学位论文, 2012
[47]孙希科,周立华,马永欢,等.我国东北地区多年冻土退化情景下的适应对策[J].冰川冻土, 2009, 31(3):532-539
[48]孙希科,周立华,陈勇.疏勒河流域气候变化情境下的适应对策[J].中国沙漠, 2011, 31(5):1316-1322
[49]孙希科.气候变化背景下疏勒河流域的适应对策模拟研究[D].北京:中国科学院研究生院硕士学位论文, 2010
[50]邓茂芝,张洪广,毛炜绎,等.乌鲁木齐河流域普通民众对冰冻圈变化的感知及适应性对策选择[J].气候变化研究进展, 2011, 7(1):65-72
[51]陈勇,周立华,孙希科.青藏高原典型县域冰川退化情景下的适应对策研究[J].冰川冻土, 2011, 33(1):205-213
[52]方一平,秦大河,丁永建.草地生态系统人工干预对经济福利的影响:以黄河源区为例[J].长江流域资源与环境, 2010, 19(9):1009-1105
[53] Fang Y P, Qin D H, Ding Y J, et al. The influence of spatio-temporal pattern of permafrost on NPP and policy adaptation implications:a case of the source regions of Yangtze and Yellow rivers[J]. Journal of Mountain Science, 2011, 8(3):437-447
[54] Fang Y P,Qin D H, Ding Y J.Frozensoil change andadaptation of animal husbandry:a case of the source regions of Yangtze and Yellow rivers[J]. Environmental Science&Policy, 2011, 14:555-568
[55]胡海燕.江河源区雪灾对畜牧业的影响及畜牧业脆弱性研究[D].北京:中国科学院研究生院硕士学位论文, 2014
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(1)SRES 情景指 IPCC 第三、四次评估报告中使用的排放情景，本文使用的是 SRES A1B 气候情景。
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