闽中南罕见冬季锋前暴雨个例特征分析
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摘要
利用福建省逐小时加密自动站资料、风廓线、S波段双偏振雷达与雨滴谱等新型探测资料以及NCEP逐6 h的1°×1°大气再分析资料,分析了2017年2月21—22日福建中南部一次预报失败的冬季暴雨过程。结果表明:(1)此次暴雨过程类似于锋前暖区暴雨,自2000年以来仅此一例,十分罕见,是在低空急流偏强并长时间维持的背景下产生的,并未受到南支槽和冷空气的影响。(2)闽中大到暴雨带和闽南暴雨区的对流系统相互独立,有多个对流系统影响闽中地区,仅两个对流系统影响闽南地区。降水有较明显对流特征,属暖云弱对流降水,容易导致预报员对雨强估计不足。(3)此次冬季暴雨过程的水汽主要来自南海地区,低层水汽条件与汛期暴雨相当,但整层水汽条件较汛期略差;低空急流对暖湿气流的输送使暴雨区趋于不稳定,但对流不稳定度较汛期弱。(4)高空辐散低层辐合的配置为冬季暴雨带来了有利的动力抬升条件,但暴雨区涡旋性不强,无明显正涡度柱。其中,闽中大到暴雨主要与条件性对称不稳定有关,是在湿斜压作用下倾斜上升运动中产生,而闽南暴雨区既存在对流不稳定,也存在条件性对称不稳定。
Based on Fujian dense automatic station data, wind profile radar data, S-band dual polarization radar data, raindrop spectrum data and NCEP 1°×1° reanalysis data, the failed forecast of winter torrential rain for central and southern Fujian from 20:00 BT 21 to 20:00 BT 22 February 2017 is analyzed. The results suggest that:(1) The uncommon torrential rain happened ahead of the front, under the background of strong and long persisting low-level jet, seen only once since 2000, and was not affected by the southern trough and cold air.(2) Convective systems in central and southern Fujian were independent to each other, and multiple convective systems affected central Fujian, but only two affected southern Fujian. The convective precipitation was warm rain process convection, easily causing the underestimation of rainfall intensity.(3) The water vapor came mainly from the South China Sea. Compared with heavy rain events in flood season, the low-level water vapor condition was similar to that of flood season although water vapor in the whole layer was slightly weaker. Warm and wet air transport by low-level jet increased the instability of stratification in rainstorm area, but the convective instability was slightly weaker than that in the flood season.(4) Divergence at upper layer coupling with low-layer convergence provided favorable condition for the dynamic lifting of rainstorm areas, but the wind vorticity was not strong and there was no obvious positive vorticity column. Analysis of wet potential vorticity indicates that the heavy-to-trorrential rain in central Fujian was mainly related to conditional symmetric instability, resulting in the inclining ascending motion, but both convective instability and conditional symmetric instability played great roles in the rainstorm area in southern Fujian.
Based on Fujian dense automatic station data, wind profile radar data, S-band dual polarization radar data, raindrop spectrum data and NCEP 1°×1° reanalysis data, the failed forecast of winter torrential rain for central and southern Fujian from 20:00 BT 21 to 20:00 BT 22 February 2017 is analyzed. The results suggest that:(1) The uncommon torrential rain happened ahead of the front, under the background of strong and long persisting low-level jet, seen only once since 2000, and was not affected by the southern trough and cold air.(2) Convective systems in central and southern Fujian were independent to each other, and multiple convective systems affected central Fujian, but only two affected southern Fujian. The convective precipitation was warm rain process convection, easily causing the underestimation of rainfall intensity.(3) The water vapor came mainly from the South China Sea. Compared with heavy rain events in flood season, the low-level water vapor condition was similar to that of flood season although water vapor in the whole layer was slightly weaker. Warm and wet air transport by low-level jet increased the instability of stratification in rainstorm area, but the convective instability was slightly weaker than that in the flood season.(4) Divergence at upper layer coupling with low-layer convergence provided favorable condition for the dynamic lifting of rainstorm areas, but the wind vorticity was not strong and there was no obvious positive vorticity column. Analysis of wet potential vorticity indicates that the heavy-to-trorrential rain in central Fujian was mainly related to conditional symmetric instability, resulting in the inclining ascending motion, but both convective instability and conditional symmetric instability played great roles in the rainstorm area in southern Fujian.
引文
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柳臣中,周筠珺,谷娟,等.2015.成都地区雨滴谱特征[J].应用气象学报,26(1):112-121.Liu C Z, Zhou Y J,Gu J,et al,2015.Characteristics of raindrop size distribution in Chengdu[J]. J Appl Meteor Sci,26(1):112-121(in Chinese).
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蒙伟光,张艳霞,戴光丰,等,2007.华南沿海一次暴雨中尺度对流系统的形成和发展过程[J].热带气象学报,23(6):521-530. Meng W G,Zhang Y X,Dai G F,et al,2007. Analysis of mesoscale convective systems associated with a warm sector heavy rainfall event over South China[J]. J Trop Meteor, 23(6):521-530(in Chinese).
吴国雄,蔡雅萍,唐晓菁,1995.湿位涡和倾斜涡度发展[J].气象学报,53(4):387-405. Wu G X,Cai Y P,Tang X J,1995. Moist potential vorticity and slantwise vorticity development[J]. Acta Meteor Sinica,53(4):387-405(in Chinese).
徐珺,杨舒楠,孙军,等,2014.北方一次暖区大暴雨强降水成因探讨[J].气象, 40(12):1455-1463. Xu J,Yang S N,Sun J,et al,2014. Discussion on the formation of a warm sector torrential rain case in North China[J]. Meteor Mon.40(12):1455-1463(in Chinese).
俞小鼎.姚秀萍,熊廷南,等,2006.多普勒天气雷达原理与业务应用[M].北京:气象出版社. Yu X D,Yao X P,Xiong T N,et al,2006. The Principle and Operational Application of Doppler Weather Radar[M]. Beijing:China Meteorological Press(in Chinese).
张晓美,蒙伟光,张艳霞,等,2009.华南暖区暴雨中尺度对流系统的分析[J].热带气象学报,25(5):551-560. Zhang X M,Meng W G,Zhang Y X,et al,2009. Analysis of mesoscale convective systems associated with a warm sector heavy rainfall event over South China[J].J Trop Meteor,25(5):551-560(in Chinese).
赵玉春,王叶红,2009.近30年华南前汛期暴雨研究概述[J].暴雨灾害,28(3):193-202.228, Zhao Y C,Wang Y H,2009. A review of studies on torrential rain during pre-summer flood season in South China since the 1980s[J]. Torrential Rain Disasters, 28(3):193-202,228(in Chinese).
朱里球,王咏青,2011. 2010年冬季江西两次暴雨过程的环境场分析[J].气象与减灾研究,34(4):30-36. Zhu X Q, Wang Y Q,2011.Analysis of environment fields of heavy rain events in Jiangxi Province in winter[J]. Meteor Disaster Reduction Res,34(4):30-36(in Chinese).
Blanchard D C,Spencer T A, 1970. Experiments on the generation of raindrop-size distributions by drop breakup[J]. J Atmos Sci,27(1):101-108.
Gamache J F,Houze R A Jr,1982. Mesoscale air motions associated with a tropical squall line[J]. Mon Wea Rev,110(2):118-135.
Jia X L,Chen L J,Ren F M,et al,2011. Impacts of the MJO on winter rainfall and circulation in China[J]. Adv Atmos Sci,28(3):521-533.
Li Q,Huang H H,Wen S Y,2011. Analysis of causes for an uncommon persistent heavy rain during winter[J]. Meteor Environ Res,2(2):53-57.
Qin F,Fu Y F,2016. TRMM-observed summer warm rain over the tropical and subtropical pacific ocean:characteristics and regional differences[J]. J Meteor Res,30(3):371-385.
宫福久,刘吉成,李子华,1997.三类降水云雨滴谱特征研究[J].大气科学,21(5):607-614. Gong F J,Liu J C,Li ZH, 1997. Study of the raindrop size distributions for three types of precipitation[J]. Sci Atmos Sinica,21(5):607-614(in Chinese).
何芬,赖绍钧.池艳珍.等,2010.福建省冬季暴雨过程及其环流特征[J].气象科技,38(3):306-310. He F,Lai S J,Chi Y Z.et al.2010. Winter rainstorms and its circulation characteristics in Fujian Province[J]. Mereor Sci Technol, 38(3):306-310(in Chinese).
何立富,陈涛,孔期,2016.华南暖区暴雨研究进展[J].应用气象学报,27(5):559-569. He L F,Chen T,Kong Q,2016. A review of studies on prefrontal torrential rain in South China[J]. J Appl Meteor Sci,27(5):559-569(in Chinese).
黄士松,李真光,包澄澜,等,1986.华南前汛期.雨[M].广州:广东科技出版社.Huang S S,Li Z G,Bao C L,et al,1986. The Preflood Season Rainstorm in South China[M]. Guangzhou:Guangdong Science and Technology Press(in Chinese).
林确略,寿绍文,杨华,2015.基于数值模拟对一次广西前汛期回流基雨形成机制的分析[J].气象,41(7):852-862.Lin Q L,Shou S W, Yang H, 2015. Analysis on formation mechanism of the backflow rainstorm occurring in first rainy season of Guangxi based on numerical simulation[J]. Meteor Mon,41(7):852-862(in Chinese).
柳臣中,周筠珺,谷娟,等.2015.成都地区雨滴谱特征[J].应用气象学报,26(1):112-121.Liu C Z, Zhou Y J,Gu J,et al,2015.Characteristics of raindrop size distribution in Chengdu[J]. J Appl Meteor Sci,26(1):112-121(in Chinese).
罗建英,廖胜石,黄归兰,等,2009.广西前汛期锋前暖区暴雨过程的模拟与分析[J].气象,35(10):50-57. Luo J Y,Liao S S,Huang G L,et al. 2009. Numerical simulation and analysis on a heavy rain process in the warm sector in Guangxi[J]. Meteor Mon,35(10):50-57(in Chinese).
蒙伟光,张艳霞,戴光丰,等,2007.华南沿海一次暴雨中尺度对流系统的形成和发展过程[J].热带气象学报,23(6):521-530. Meng W G,Zhang Y X,Dai G F,et al,2007. Analysis of mesoscale convective systems associated with a warm sector heavy rainfall event over South China[J]. J Trop Meteor, 23(6):521-530(in Chinese).
吴国雄,蔡雅萍,唐晓菁,1995.湿位涡和倾斜涡度发展[J].气象学报,53(4):387-405. Wu G X,Cai Y P,Tang X J,1995. Moist potential vorticity and slantwise vorticity development[J]. Acta Meteor Sinica,53(4):387-405(in Chinese).
徐珺,杨舒楠,孙军,等,2014.北方一次暖区大暴雨强降水成因探讨[J].气象, 40(12):1455-1463. Xu J,Yang S N,Sun J,et al,2014. Discussion on the formation of a warm sector torrential rain case in North China[J]. Meteor Mon.40(12):1455-1463(in Chinese).
俞小鼎.姚秀萍,熊廷南,等,2006.多普勒天气雷达原理与业务应用[M].北京:气象出版社. Yu X D,Yao X P,Xiong T N,et al,2006. The Principle and Operational Application of Doppler Weather Radar[M]. Beijing:China Meteorological Press(in Chinese).
张晓美,蒙伟光,张艳霞,等,2009.华南暖区暴雨中尺度对流系统的分析[J].热带气象学报,25(5):551-560. Zhang X M,Meng W G,Zhang Y X,et al,2009. Analysis of mesoscale convective systems associated with a warm sector heavy rainfall event over South China[J].J Trop Meteor,25(5):551-560(in Chinese).
赵玉春,王叶红,2009.近30年华南前汛期暴雨研究概述[J].暴雨灾害,28(3):193-202.228, Zhao Y C,Wang Y H,2009. A review of studies on torrential rain during pre-summer flood season in South China since the 1980s[J]. Torrential Rain Disasters, 28(3):193-202,228(in Chinese).
朱里球,王咏青,2011. 2010年冬季江西两次暴雨过程的环境场分析[J].气象与减灾研究,34(4):30-36. Zhu X Q, Wang Y Q,2011.Analysis of environment fields of heavy rain events in Jiangxi Province in winter[J]. Meteor Disaster Reduction Res,34(4):30-36(in Chinese).
Blanchard D C,Spencer T A, 1970. Experiments on the generation of raindrop-size distributions by drop breakup[J]. J Atmos Sci,27(1):101-108.
Gamache J F,Houze R A Jr,1982. Mesoscale air motions associated with a tropical squall line[J]. Mon Wea Rev,110(2):118-135.
Jia X L,Chen L J,Ren F M,et al,2011. Impacts of the MJO on winter rainfall and circulation in China[J]. Adv Atmos Sci,28(3):521-533.
Li Q,Huang H H,Wen S Y,2011. Analysis of causes for an uncommon persistent heavy rain during winter[J]. Meteor Environ Res,2(2):53-57.
Qin F,Fu Y F,2016. TRMM-observed summer warm rain over the tropical and subtropical pacific ocean:characteristics and regional differences[J]. J Meteor Res,30(3):371-385.
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