基于LEAP模型的京津冀地区钢铁行业中长期减排潜力分析
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摘要
京津冀地区是我国钢铁行业集中布局的地区,也是大气污染最突出的地区.分析京津冀地区钢铁行业各类治污工具的中长期减排影响,对于选择最优减排措施、加快推动该地区大气污染治理意义重大.构建基于LEAP模型的京津冀地区钢铁行业模型,以2015年为基准年,以每5 a为一个时间节点,结合规模减排、结构减排、技术减排、末端治理4种减排措施,模拟计算了4种单一政策情景及4种组合政策情景下2015—2030年京津冀地区钢铁行业主要污染物(SO_2、NO_x、PM_(10)、PM_(2. 5)、CO_2)排放量及相应的减排影响.结果表明:在单一政策情景下,规模减排情景对5种污染物减排效果均十分显著.在组合政策情景下,4种减排措施叠加的综合减排情景效果最好,在该情景下京津冀地区钢铁行业到2030年SO_2、NO_x、PM_(10)、PM_(2. 5)、CO_2排放量将分别削减27. 73×10~4、17. 85×10~4、42. 94×10~4、27. 35×10~4、23. 15×10~7t;在规模-末端治理情景下,除CO_2外其余污染物减排效果仅次于综合减排情景;规模-结构减排情景对PM10和PM2. 5的减排效果相对明显;规模-技术减排情景对CO_2、SO_2、NO_x的减排效果相对明显.研究显示,京津冀地区钢铁行业需要在大力淘汰落后过剩产能、缩减产量等源头治理措施的基础上,持续加强末端治理、提高废钢比例、提升节能减排技术水平等协同治理能力,以提高治污减排效果.
The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region is concentrated with steel industry and is the most prominent area of air pollution in China.Analysis of the medium and long-term emission reduction by using various pollution control tools in the steel industry is of great significance for selecting the optimal emission reduction policy to accelerate the air pollution control in the region. This paper simulated and calculated the emission of the major pollutants SO_2,NO_x,PM_(10),PM_(2. 5),CO_2,and their corresponding emission reduction effects under eight scenarios of both single and collaborative emission reductions in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region from 2015 to 2030. This is based on the constructed LEAP-Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei iron and steel industry model,using 2015 as the base year and 5 years as a period,combined with four emission reduction measures,which are scale emission reduction,structural emission reduction,technology emission reduction and end treatment. The results showed that under a single emission reduction scenario,the scale emission reduction scenario had significant effects on the reduction of the five pollutants compared with other scenarios. Under the scenario of collaborative emissions reduction,the integrated emission reduction scenarios with the four superimposed measures worked best. Under this scenario,SO_2,NO_x,PM_(10),PM_(2. 5) and CO_2 pollutant emissions of the iron and steel industry in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region would be reduced by 27. 73×10~4,17. 85×10~4,42. 94×10~4,27. 35×10~4 and 23. 15×10~7 t in 2030. Compared with the comprehensive scenario,the reduction effect of end treatment was only second to the integrated scenario,except for the reduction of CO_2 emission. The reduction-structure scenario had relatively significant reduction effect on PM_(10) and PM_(2. 5),as the reduction-technology scenario did on CO_2,SO_2 and NO_x. Therefore,it is necessary for the iron and steel industry in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region to make more effort in eliminating the backward and excess production capacity,as well as reducing the output at the source origin. On this basis,it is also needed to continuously strengthen end treatment,increase scrap ratios,and increase the level of energy-saving and emission-reduction technologies,in order to improve the potential for pollution control and emission reduction.
The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region is concentrated with steel industry and is the most prominent area of air pollution in China.Analysis of the medium and long-term emission reduction by using various pollution control tools in the steel industry is of great significance for selecting the optimal emission reduction policy to accelerate the air pollution control in the region. This paper simulated and calculated the emission of the major pollutants SO_2,NO_x,PM_(10),PM_(2. 5),CO_2,and their corresponding emission reduction effects under eight scenarios of both single and collaborative emission reductions in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region from 2015 to 2030. This is based on the constructed LEAP-Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei iron and steel industry model,using 2015 as the base year and 5 years as a period,combined with four emission reduction measures,which are scale emission reduction,structural emission reduction,technology emission reduction and end treatment. The results showed that under a single emission reduction scenario,the scale emission reduction scenario had significant effects on the reduction of the five pollutants compared with other scenarios. Under the scenario of collaborative emissions reduction,the integrated emission reduction scenarios with the four superimposed measures worked best. Under this scenario,SO_2,NO_x,PM_(10),PM_(2. 5) and CO_2 pollutant emissions of the iron and steel industry in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region would be reduced by 27. 73×10~4,17. 85×10~4,42. 94×10~4,27. 35×10~4 and 23. 15×10~7 t in 2030. Compared with the comprehensive scenario,the reduction effect of end treatment was only second to the integrated scenario,except for the reduction of CO_2 emission. The reduction-structure scenario had relatively significant reduction effect on PM_(10) and PM_(2. 5),as the reduction-technology scenario did on CO_2,SO_2 and NO_x. Therefore,it is necessary for the iron and steel industry in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region to make more effort in eliminating the backward and excess production capacity,as well as reducing the output at the source origin. On this basis,it is also needed to continuously strengthen end treatment,increase scrap ratios,and increase the level of energy-saving and emission-reduction technologies,in order to improve the potential for pollution control and emission reduction.
引文
[1]国家统计局.中国统计年鉴2016[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2016:50-56.
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[10]VIKLUND S B,JOHANSSON M T.Technologies for utilization of industrial excess heat:potentials for energy recovery and CO2emission reduction[J].Energy Conversion&Management,2014,77(1):369-379.
[11]ZHOU Jianguo,JIN Baoling,DU Shijuan,et al.Scenario analysis of carbon emissions of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei[J].Energies,2018,11(6):1489-1505.
[12]MANDAL G K,SAU D C,DAS S K,et al.A steady state thermal and material balance model for an iron making blast furnace and its validation with operational data[J].Transactions of the Indian Institute of Metals,2014,67:209-221.
[13]王宪恩,栾天阳,陈英姿,等.基于LCA的废旧资源循环利用节能减排效果评估模式与方法研究:以吉林省某钢铁企业为例[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2016,26(10):69-77.WANG Xian'en,LUAN Tianyang,CHEN Yingzi,et al.Reduction effects of waste resources recycling based on life cycle assessment:a case study of an iron and steel industry enterprise in Jilin Province[J].China Population,Resources and Environment,2016,26(10):69-77.
[14]YU B,LI X,QIAO Y B,et al.Low-carbon transition of iron and steel industry in China:carbon intensity,economic growth and policy intervention[J].Journal of Environmental Science,2015,28:137-147.
[15]YU H,PAN S,TANG B,et al.Urban energy consumption and CO2emissions in Beijing:current and future[J].Energy Efficiency,2015,8(3):527-543.
[16]刘胜强,毛显强,胡涛,等.中国钢铁行业大气污染与温室气体协同控制路径研究[J].环境科学与技术,2012,35(7):168-174.LIU Shengqiang,MAO Xianqiang,HU Tao,et al.Roadmap of cocontrol of air pollutants and GHGs in iron and steel industry in China[J].Environmental Science&Technology(China),2012,35(7):168-174.
[17]王克,王灿,吕学都,等.基于LEAP的中国钢铁行业CO2减排潜力分析[J].清华大学学报(自然科学版),2006,46(12):1982-1986.WANG Ke,WANG Can,LV Xuedu,et al.Abatement potential of CO2emissions from China iron and steel industry based on LEAP[J].Journal Tsinghua University(Science and Technology),2006,46(12):1982-1986.
[18]WANG K,WANG C,LU X,et al.Scenario analysis on CO2emissions reduction potential in China's iron and steel industry[J].Energy Policy,2007,12(35):2323-2326.
[19]郭宏宝,朱志勇.环境政策工具组合的次优改进效应[J].首都经济贸易大学学报,2016,18(2):106-115.GUO Hongbao,ZHU Zhiyong.The second-best optimal effect on the combination of environmental policy instruments[J].Journal of Capital University of Economics and Business,2016,18(2):106-115.
[20]白皓,刘璞,李宏煦,等.钢铁企业CO2排放模型及减排策略[J].北京科技大学学报,2010,32(12):1623-1629.
[21]刘阳荷.中国大气污染物排放量变动影响因素分析与精准减排[D].济南:山东大学,2017:27-29.
[22]ALAN S M,CLAS-OTTO W.MARKAL-MACRO:a linked model for energy-economy analysis[EB/OL].Palo Alto,American:Stanford University,1992[2018-07-07].https://www.researchgate.net/publication/236572618_MARKAL-MACRO_a_linked_model_for_energy-economy_analysis.
[23]CHEN Wenying,WU Zongxin,HE Jiankun,et al.Carbon emission control strategies for China:a comparative study with partial and general equilibrium versions of the China MARKAL model[J].Energy,2007,32(1):59-72.
[24]NEWELL R G,JAFFE A B,STAVINS R N.The induced innovation hypothesis and energy-saving technological change[J].The Quarterly Journal of Economics,1999,114(3):941-975.
[25]HA P V,KOMPAS T.Solving intertemporal CGE models in parallel using a singly bordered block diagonal ordering technique[J].Economic Modelling,2015,52:3-12.
[26]LEE C F,LIN S J,LEWIS C.Analysis of the impacts of combining carbon taxation and emission trading on different industry sectors[J].Energy Policy,2008,36(2):722-729.
[27]秦昌波.中国环境经济:一般均衡分析系统及其应用[M].北京:科学出版社,2014:25-28.
[29]周大地,戴彦德,郁聪,等.2020中国可持续能源情景[M].北京:中国环境科学出版社,2003:30-35.
[30]IPCC.2006 IPCC guidelines for national greenhouse gas inventories[EB/OL].Kanagawa,Japan:Institute for Global Environmental Strategies,2006[2018-07-07].https://www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/public/2006gl/chinese.
[31]ZHANG J,WANG G.Energy saving technologies and productive efficiency in the Chinese iron and steel sector[J].Energy,2008,33(4):525-527.
[32]张肖,吴高明,吴声浩,等.大型钢铁企业典型工序碳排放系数的确定方法探讨[J].环境科学学报,2012,32(8):2024-2027.ZHANG Xiao,WU Gaoming,WU Shenghao,et al.Determination of carbon dioxide emission factors in typical processes for large ironsteel companies[J].Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae,2012,32(8):2024-2027.
[33]卢鑫,白皓,赵立华,等.钢铁企业能源消耗与CO减排关系[J].北京科技大学学报,2012,34(12):1445-1450.LU Xin,BAI Hao,ZHAO Lihua,et al.Relationship between the energy consumption and CO2emission reduction of iron and steel plants[J].Journal of University of Science and Technology Beijing,2012,34(12):1445-1450.
[34]SMYTH R,NARAYAN P K,SHI H.Substitution between energy and classical factor inputs in the Chinese steel sector[J].Applied Energy,2001,88(11):361-367.
[35]RHEE C H,KIM J Y,HAN K W,et al.Process analysis for ammonia-based CO2capture in ironmaking industry[J].Energy Procedia,2011,4:1486.
[36]赵羚杰.中国钢铁行业大气污染物排放清单及减排成本研究[D].杭州:浙江大学,2016:49-52.
[37]刘大钧,魏有权,杨丽琴.我国钢铁生产企业氮氧化物减排形势研究[J].环境工程,2012,30(5):118-123.LIU Dajun,WEI Youquan,YANG Liqin.Research of emission reduction situation of nitrogen oxides in China's iron and steel enterprises[J].Environmental Engineering,2012,30(5):118-123.
[38]中国电力企业联合会.中国电力行业年度发展报告2016[J].电器工业,2016(9):18-23.
[39]盖兆军.基于低碳经济的我国电力行业可持续发展研究[D].长春:吉林大学,2015:77-82.
[2]伯鑫,赵春丽,吴铁,等.京津冀地区钢铁行业高时空分辨率排放清单方法研究[J].中国环境科学,2015,35(8):2554-2560.BO Xin,ZHAO Chunli,WU Tie,et al.Emission inventory with high temporal and spatial resolution of steel industry in the BeijingTianjin-Hebei Region[J].China Environmental Science,2015,35(8):2554-2560.
[3]颜瑞,朱晓宁,张群.京津冀地区钢铁行业发展现状及未来趋势研究[J].冶金经济与管理,2016(6):23-25.
[4]程念亮,李云婷,张大伟,等.2014年10月北京市4次典型空气重污染过程成因分析[J].环境科学研究,2015,28(2):163-170.CHENG Nianliang,LI Yunting,ZHANG Dawei,et al.Analysis about the characteristics and formation mechanisms of serious pollution events in October 2014 in Beijing[J].Research of Environmental Sciences,2015,28(2):163-170.
[5]GUO Y,LI S,TIAN Z,et al.The burden of air pollution on years of life lost in Beijing,China,2004-08:retrospective regression analysis of daily deaths[J].British Medical Journal,2014,347(22):1-10.
[6]LIN B Q,WANG X L.Carbon emissions from energy intensive industry in China:evidence from the iron and steel industry[J].Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews,2015,47(3):746-754.
[7]HAO J M,WANG L T,SHEN M J,et al.Air quality impacts of power plant emissions in Beijing[J].Environmental Pollution,2007,147:401-408.
[8]翟世贤,安兴琴,孙兆彬,等.污染源减排时刻和减排比例对北京市PM2.5浓度的影响[J].中国环境科学,2015,35(7):1921-1930.ZHAI Shixian,AN Xingqin,SUN Zhaobin,et al.Effects of emissionsources reduction time and ratios on PM2.5concentration over Beijing municipality[J].China Environmental Science,2015,35(7):1921-1930.
[9]CAI Wenjia,WANG Can,WANG Ke,et al.Scenario analysis on CO2emissions reduction potential in China's electricity sector[J].Energy Policy,2007,35:6445-6456.
[10]VIKLUND S B,JOHANSSON M T.Technologies for utilization of industrial excess heat:potentials for energy recovery and CO2emission reduction[J].Energy Conversion&Management,2014,77(1):369-379.
[11]ZHOU Jianguo,JIN Baoling,DU Shijuan,et al.Scenario analysis of carbon emissions of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei[J].Energies,2018,11(6):1489-1505.
[12]MANDAL G K,SAU D C,DAS S K,et al.A steady state thermal and material balance model for an iron making blast furnace and its validation with operational data[J].Transactions of the Indian Institute of Metals,2014,67:209-221.
[13]王宪恩,栾天阳,陈英姿,等.基于LCA的废旧资源循环利用节能减排效果评估模式与方法研究:以吉林省某钢铁企业为例[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2016,26(10):69-77.WANG Xian'en,LUAN Tianyang,CHEN Yingzi,et al.Reduction effects of waste resources recycling based on life cycle assessment:a case study of an iron and steel industry enterprise in Jilin Province[J].China Population,Resources and Environment,2016,26(10):69-77.
[14]YU B,LI X,QIAO Y B,et al.Low-carbon transition of iron and steel industry in China:carbon intensity,economic growth and policy intervention[J].Journal of Environmental Science,2015,28:137-147.
[15]YU H,PAN S,TANG B,et al.Urban energy consumption and CO2emissions in Beijing:current and future[J].Energy Efficiency,2015,8(3):527-543.
[16]刘胜强,毛显强,胡涛,等.中国钢铁行业大气污染与温室气体协同控制路径研究[J].环境科学与技术,2012,35(7):168-174.LIU Shengqiang,MAO Xianqiang,HU Tao,et al.Roadmap of cocontrol of air pollutants and GHGs in iron and steel industry in China[J].Environmental Science&Technology(China),2012,35(7):168-174.
[17]王克,王灿,吕学都,等.基于LEAP的中国钢铁行业CO2减排潜力分析[J].清华大学学报(自然科学版),2006,46(12):1982-1986.WANG Ke,WANG Can,LV Xuedu,et al.Abatement potential of CO2emissions from China iron and steel industry based on LEAP[J].Journal Tsinghua University(Science and Technology),2006,46(12):1982-1986.
[18]WANG K,WANG C,LU X,et al.Scenario analysis on CO2emissions reduction potential in China's iron and steel industry[J].Energy Policy,2007,12(35):2323-2326.
[19]郭宏宝,朱志勇.环境政策工具组合的次优改进效应[J].首都经济贸易大学学报,2016,18(2):106-115.GUO Hongbao,ZHU Zhiyong.The second-best optimal effect on the combination of environmental policy instruments[J].Journal of Capital University of Economics and Business,2016,18(2):106-115.
[20]白皓,刘璞,李宏煦,等.钢铁企业CO2排放模型及减排策略[J].北京科技大学学报,2010,32(12):1623-1629.
[21]刘阳荷.中国大气污染物排放量变动影响因素分析与精准减排[D].济南:山东大学,2017:27-29.
[22]ALAN S M,CLAS-OTTO W.MARKAL-MACRO:a linked model for energy-economy analysis[EB/OL].Palo Alto,American:Stanford University,1992[2018-07-07].https://www.researchgate.net/publication/236572618_MARKAL-MACRO_a_linked_model_for_energy-economy_analysis.
[23]CHEN Wenying,WU Zongxin,HE Jiankun,et al.Carbon emission control strategies for China:a comparative study with partial and general equilibrium versions of the China MARKAL model[J].Energy,2007,32(1):59-72.
[24]NEWELL R G,JAFFE A B,STAVINS R N.The induced innovation hypothesis and energy-saving technological change[J].The Quarterly Journal of Economics,1999,114(3):941-975.
[25]HA P V,KOMPAS T.Solving intertemporal CGE models in parallel using a singly bordered block diagonal ordering technique[J].Economic Modelling,2015,52:3-12.
[26]LEE C F,LIN S J,LEWIS C.Analysis of the impacts of combining carbon taxation and emission trading on different industry sectors[J].Energy Policy,2008,36(2):722-729.
[27]秦昌波.中国环境经济:一般均衡分析系统及其应用[M].北京:科学出版社,2014:25-28.
[29]周大地,戴彦德,郁聪,等.2020中国可持续能源情景[M].北京:中国环境科学出版社,2003:30-35.
[30]IPCC.2006 IPCC guidelines for national greenhouse gas inventories[EB/OL].Kanagawa,Japan:Institute for Global Environmental Strategies,2006[2018-07-07].https://www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/public/2006gl/chinese.
[31]ZHANG J,WANG G.Energy saving technologies and productive efficiency in the Chinese iron and steel sector[J].Energy,2008,33(4):525-527.
[32]张肖,吴高明,吴声浩,等.大型钢铁企业典型工序碳排放系数的确定方法探讨[J].环境科学学报,2012,32(8):2024-2027.ZHANG Xiao,WU Gaoming,WU Shenghao,et al.Determination of carbon dioxide emission factors in typical processes for large ironsteel companies[J].Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae,2012,32(8):2024-2027.
[33]卢鑫,白皓,赵立华,等.钢铁企业能源消耗与CO减排关系[J].北京科技大学学报,2012,34(12):1445-1450.LU Xin,BAI Hao,ZHAO Lihua,et al.Relationship between the energy consumption and CO2emission reduction of iron and steel plants[J].Journal of University of Science and Technology Beijing,2012,34(12):1445-1450.
[34]SMYTH R,NARAYAN P K,SHI H.Substitution between energy and classical factor inputs in the Chinese steel sector[J].Applied Energy,2001,88(11):361-367.
[35]RHEE C H,KIM J Y,HAN K W,et al.Process analysis for ammonia-based CO2capture in ironmaking industry[J].Energy Procedia,2011,4:1486.
[36]赵羚杰.中国钢铁行业大气污染物排放清单及减排成本研究[D].杭州:浙江大学,2016:49-52.
[37]刘大钧,魏有权,杨丽琴.我国钢铁生产企业氮氧化物减排形势研究[J].环境工程,2012,30(5):118-123.LIU Dajun,WEI Youquan,YANG Liqin.Research of emission reduction situation of nitrogen oxides in China's iron and steel enterprises[J].Environmental Engineering,2012,30(5):118-123.
[38]中国电力企业联合会.中国电力行业年度发展报告2016[J].电器工业,2016(9):18-23.
[39]盖兆军.基于低碳经济的我国电力行业可持续发展研究[D].长春:吉林大学,2015:77-82.
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