Coulomb stress evolution along the Kongur Extensional System since 1895 and present seismic hazard
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摘要
The present-day tectonic activities on the northeastern margin of the Pamir Plateau are mainly E-W oriented extensions, among which the Kongur Extensional System(KES) plays an important role in the internal expansion of the Pamir. As the largest earthquake since Taxkorgan earthquakes in 1895 and 1896, the Aketao earthquake occurred on the Muji fault on the northern portion of the KES in 2016. Since then, the trend of seismic activities along the KES has been paid much attention to. Based on the visco elastic layered lithosphere model, we calculate the co-seismic and post-seismic stress changes caused by five historical earthquakes on the KES and its adjacent areas since 1895, and analyze the interaction among strong earthquakes. The results show that all of the historical earthquakes after 1895 occurred in the areas where the co-seismic and post-seismic Coulomb stress increased. Coulomb stress loading at the hypocenters of the 1896 Taxkorgan earthquake, the 1974 Markansu earthquake and the 2016 Aketao earthquake were 0.251 MPa, 0.013 MPa and 0.563 MPa, respectively. The three earthquakes were catalyzed by such variations. The historical earthquakes increased the stress state on most segments of the Southern Kungai Mountain fault and Kongur fault along the KES. In particular, we can identify 2 visible earthquake gaps with increasing seismic hazard formed on the Qimugan segment and Bulunkou segment of the KES. The Qimugan section and the Bulunkou section are located at the fault transition zone with concentrated stress and high extension rate, so great attention should be paid to their seismic hazard at present day.
The present-day tectonic activities on the northeastern margin of the Pamir Plateau are mainly E-W oriented extensions, among which the Kongur Extensional System(KES) plays an important role in the internal expansion of the Pamir. As the largest earthquake since Taxkorgan earthquakes in 1895 and 1896, the Aketao earthquake occurred on the Muji fault on the northern portion of the KES in 2016. Since then, the trend of seismic activities along the KES has been paid much attention to. Based on the visco elastic layered lithosphere model, we calculate the co-seismic and post-seismic stress changes caused by five historical earthquakes on the KES and its adjacent areas since 1895, and analyze the interaction among strong earthquakes. The results show that all of the historical earthquakes after 1895 occurred in the areas where the co-seismic and post-seismic Coulomb stress increased. Coulomb stress loading at the hypocenters of the 1896 Taxkorgan earthquake, the 1974 Markansu earthquake and the 2016 Aketao earthquake were 0.251 MPa, 0.013 MPa and 0.563 MPa, respectively. The three earthquakes were catalyzed by such variations. The historical earthquakes increased the stress state on most segments of the Southern Kungai Mountain fault and Kongur fault along the KES. In particular, we can identify 2 visible earthquake gaps with increasing seismic hazard formed on the Qimugan segment and Bulunkou segment of the KES. The Qimugan section and the Bulunkou section are located at the fault transition zone with concentrated stress and high extension rate, so great attention should be paid to their seismic hazard at present day.
The present-day tectonic activities on the northeastern margin of the Pamir Plateau are mainly E-W oriented extensions, among which the Kongur Extensional System(KES) plays an important role in the internal expansion of the Pamir. As the largest earthquake since Taxkorgan earthquakes in 1895 and 1896, the Aketao earthquake occurred on the Muji fault on the northern portion of the KES in 2016. Since then, the trend of seismic activities along the KES has been paid much attention to. Based on the visco elastic layered lithosphere model, we calculate the co-seismic and post-seismic stress changes caused by five historical earthquakes on the KES and its adjacent areas since 1895, and analyze the interaction among strong earthquakes. The results show that all of the historical earthquakes after 1895 occurred in the areas where the co-seismic and post-seismic Coulomb stress increased. Coulomb stress loading at the hypocenters of the 1896 Taxkorgan earthquake, the 1974 Markansu earthquake and the 2016 Aketao earthquake were 0.251 MPa, 0.013 MPa and 0.563 MPa, respectively. The three earthquakes were catalyzed by such variations. The historical earthquakes increased the stress state on most segments of the Southern Kungai Mountain fault and Kongur fault along the KES. In particular, we can identify 2 visible earthquake gaps with increasing seismic hazard formed on the Qimugan segment and Bulunkou segment of the KES. The Qimugan section and the Bulunkou section are located at the fault transition zone with concentrated stress and high extension rate, so great attention should be paid to their seismic hazard at present day.
引文
[1] Xuejun Qiao, Qi Wang, Saomin Yang, Jie Li, Study on the focal mechanism and deformation characteristics for the 2008 Mw6.7 Wuqia earthquake, Xinjiang by InSAR, Chin. J. Geophys. 57(6)(2014)1805-1813.
[2] Jie Chen, Li Tao, Wenqiao Li, Zhaode Yuan, Late Cenozoic and present tectonic deformation in the Pamir salient, Northwestern China, Seismol. Geol. 33(02)(2011)241-259.
[3] Wenqiao Li, Jie Chen, Zhaode Yuan, Mingda Huang, Tao Li, Coseismic surface ruptures of multi segments and seismogenic fault of the Tashkorgan earthquake in Pamir, 1895, Seismol. Geol. 33(2)(2011)260-276.
[4] Jie Chen, Li Tao, Jianbao Sun, Lihua Fang, Yuan Yao, Yuehua Li, Haoran Wang,Bo Fu, Coseimic surface ruptures and seismogenic Muji fault of the 25November 2016 Arketao Mw6.6 earthquake in Northern Pamir, Seismol. Geol.04(2016)1160-1174.
[5] S. Metzger, B. Schurr, T. Schoene, et al., Rupture Model of the 2015 M7. 2Sarez, Central Pamir, earthquake And the Importance of Strike-slip Faulting in the Pamir Interior. Abstract T11A-2579 Presented at 2011 Fall Meeting, AGU,San Francisco, Calif, 2016, pp. 12-16.
[6] Wei Xiong, Kai Tan, Gang Liu, Xuejun Qiao, Zhaosheng Nie, Coseismic and postseismic Coulomb stress changes on surrounding major faults caused by the 2015 Nepal Mw7.9 earthquake, Chin. J. Geophys. 58(11)(2015)4305-4316.
[7] R.S. Stein, A.A. Barka, J.H. Dieterich, Progressive failure on the North Anatolian fault since 1939 by earthquake stress triggering,Geophys, J'Integre 128(1997)594-604.
[8] R.S. Stein, The role of stress transfer in earthquake occurrence, Nature 402(1999)605-609.
[9] R.S. Stein, Earthquake conversations, Sci. Am. 288(2003)72-79.
[10] T. Parsons, S. Toda, R.S. Stein, A. Barka, J.H. Dieterich, Heightened odds of large earthquakes near Istanbul:an interaction-based probability calculation,Science 288(2000)661-665.
[11] Xiong Xiong, Bin Shan, Yong Zheng, Rongjiang Wang, Stress transfer and its implication for earthquake hazard on the Kunlun Fault, Tibet, Tectonophysics482(2010)216-225.
[12] Bin Shan, Xiong Xiong, Rongjiang Wang, Yong Zheng, Song Yang, Coulomb stress evolution along Xianshuihe-Xiaojiang fault system since 1713 and its interaction with Wenchuan earthquake, May 12, 2008, Earth Planet. Sci. Lett.377-378(2013)199-210.
[13] M.L. Chevalier, Haibing Li, Jiawei Pan, Junling Pei, Fuyao Wu, Wei Xu,Zhiming Sun, Dongliang Liu, Fast slip-rate along the northern end of the Karakorum fault system, western Tibet, Geophys. Res. Lett. 38(22)(2011)116-120.
[14] Jie Chen, Guosheng Qu, Jun Hu, Feng Xianyue, Arcuate thrust tectonics and its contemporary seismicity in the eastern section of the external zone of the Pamir, Seismol. Geol. 19(4)(1997)301-312.
[15] J. Jackson, P. Molnar, H. Patton, T. Fitch, Seismotectonic aspects of the Markansu valley, Tajikstan, earthquake of August 11, 1974, J. Geophys. Res. 84(1979)8157-9187.
[16] Maoyuan Yang, Peiyi Shu, Wenhu Zhou, Determination of the source parameters of the Wuqia earthquake in Xinjiang from far field P-Waveform,Earthq. Res. China 04(1985)77-82.
[17] Feng Xianyue, The Paleo earthquakes in Xinjiang Region, China, Xinjiang Science, Technology and Health Publishing House, Urumchi, 1997, pp. 33-34.
[18] V.S. Burtman, P. Molnar, Geological and geophysical evidence for deep subduction of continental crust beneath the Pamir, Spec. Paper Geol. Soc. Am. 281(1993)76.
[19] D.L. Wells, K.J. Coppersmith, New empirical relationships among magnitude,rupture length, rupture width, rupture area, and surface displacement, Bull.Seismol. Soc. Am. 84(1994)974-1002.
[20] E. Papadimitriou, Xueze Wen, V. Karakostas, Jin Xue shen, Earthquake triggering along the Xianshuihe fault zone of Western Sichuan,China, Pure Appl.Geophys. 161(2004)1683-1707.
[21] Wei Xiong, Kai Tan, Qiao Xuejun, Liu Gang, Zhaosheng Nie, Coseismic, postseismic and inter seismic Coulomb stress evolution along the Himalayan main frontal thrust Since 1803, Pure Appl. Geophys. 174(2017)1889-1905.
[22] Jie Li, Gang Liu, Qiao Xuejun, Wei Xiong, Qi Wang, Rupture characteristics of the 25 November 2016 Akteoearthquake(Mw6.6)in eastern Pamir revealed by GPS and teleseismic data, Pure Appl. Geophys. 175(2)(2018)1-13.
[23] C.H. Scholz, The Mechanics of Earthquakes and Faulting, Cambridge Univ.-Press, NewYork, 1990, p. 439.
[24] T. Parsons, R.S. Stein, R.W. Simpson, Stress sensitivity of fault seismicity:a comparison between limited-offset oblique and major strike-slip faults,J. Geophys. Res. 104(1999)20183-20202.
[25] Rongjiang Wang, F. Lorenzo-Martin, F. Roth, PSGRN/PSCMP-a new code for calculating co-and post-seismic deformation, geoid and gravity changesbased on the viscoelastic-gravitational dislocation theory, Comput. Geosci. 32(4)(2006)527-541.
[26] Yaolin Shi, Jianlin Cao, Lithosphere effective viscosity of continental China,Earth Sci. Front. 15(3)(2008)82-95.
[27] Yangmao Wen, Zhenghong Li, Caijun Xu, Isabelle Ryder, Burgmann Roland,Postseismic motion after the 2001 Mw7.8 Kooxili earthquake in Tibet observed by InSAR time series, J. Geophys. Res. 117(8)(2012)B08405.
[28] Caijun Xu, Jianjun Wang, Zhenghong Li, et al., Applying the Coulomb failure function with an optimally oriented plane to the 2008 Mw7.9 Wenchuan earthquake triggering, Tectonophysics 491(1-4)(2010)119-126.
[29] Bin Shan, Jiahang Li, Libo Han, Lihua Fang, Yang Song, Bikai Jin, Yong Zheng,Xiong Xiong, Coseismic Coulomb stress change caused by 2010 MS=7.1 Yushu earthquake and its influence to 2011 MS=5.2 Nangqen earthquake, Chin. J.Geophys. 55(09)(2012)3028-3042.
[30] Shuai Wang, Caijun Xu, Yangmao Wen, Zhi Yin, Guoyan Jiang, Lihua Fang, Slip model for the 25 November 2016 Mw 6.6 Aketao earthquake, western China,revealed by Sentinel-1 and ALOS-2 observations, Rem. Sens. 9(9)(2017),https://doi.org/10.3390/rs9040325.
[31] Xiwei Xu, Guoyan Jiang, Guihua Yu, Discussion on seismogenic fault of the Ludian Ms6.5 earthquake and its tectonic attribution, Chin. J. Geophys. 57(9)(2014)3060-3068.
[32] A.M. Freed, Jian Lin, Delayed triggering of the 1999 Hector Mine earthquake by viscoelastic stress transfer, Nature 411(6834)(2001)180-183.
[33] A.M. Freed, S.T. Ali, R. Burgmann, Evolution of stress in Southern California for the past 200 years from coseismic, postseismic and interseismic stress changes, Geophys. J. Int. 169(3)(2007)1164-1179.
[34] S.T. Ali, A.M. Freed, E. Calais, Coulomb stress evolution in Northeastern Caribbean over the past 250 years due to coseismic, postseismic and interseismic deformation, Geophys. J. Int. 174(2008)904-918.
[35] Xinglin Lei, Shengli Ma, Jinrong Su, Xiaolong Wang, Inelastic triggering of the2013 Mw 6.6 Lushan earthquake by the 2008 Mw7.9 Wenchuan earthquake,Seismol. Geol. 35(2)(2013)411-422.
[36] Yongge Wan, Zhengkang Shen, Shuzhong Sheng, Xiaofeng Xu, The influence of 2008 Wenchuan earthquake on surrounding faults, Acta Seismol. Sin. 31(2)(2009)128-139.
[2] Jie Chen, Li Tao, Wenqiao Li, Zhaode Yuan, Late Cenozoic and present tectonic deformation in the Pamir salient, Northwestern China, Seismol. Geol. 33(02)(2011)241-259.
[3] Wenqiao Li, Jie Chen, Zhaode Yuan, Mingda Huang, Tao Li, Coseismic surface ruptures of multi segments and seismogenic fault of the Tashkorgan earthquake in Pamir, 1895, Seismol. Geol. 33(2)(2011)260-276.
[4] Jie Chen, Li Tao, Jianbao Sun, Lihua Fang, Yuan Yao, Yuehua Li, Haoran Wang,Bo Fu, Coseimic surface ruptures and seismogenic Muji fault of the 25November 2016 Arketao Mw6.6 earthquake in Northern Pamir, Seismol. Geol.04(2016)1160-1174.
[5] S. Metzger, B. Schurr, T. Schoene, et al., Rupture Model of the 2015 M7. 2Sarez, Central Pamir, earthquake And the Importance of Strike-slip Faulting in the Pamir Interior. Abstract T11A-2579 Presented at 2011 Fall Meeting, AGU,San Francisco, Calif, 2016, pp. 12-16.
[6] Wei Xiong, Kai Tan, Gang Liu, Xuejun Qiao, Zhaosheng Nie, Coseismic and postseismic Coulomb stress changes on surrounding major faults caused by the 2015 Nepal Mw7.9 earthquake, Chin. J. Geophys. 58(11)(2015)4305-4316.
[7] R.S. Stein, A.A. Barka, J.H. Dieterich, Progressive failure on the North Anatolian fault since 1939 by earthquake stress triggering,Geophys, J'Integre 128(1997)594-604.
[8] R.S. Stein, The role of stress transfer in earthquake occurrence, Nature 402(1999)605-609.
[9] R.S. Stein, Earthquake conversations, Sci. Am. 288(2003)72-79.
[10] T. Parsons, S. Toda, R.S. Stein, A. Barka, J.H. Dieterich, Heightened odds of large earthquakes near Istanbul:an interaction-based probability calculation,Science 288(2000)661-665.
[11] Xiong Xiong, Bin Shan, Yong Zheng, Rongjiang Wang, Stress transfer and its implication for earthquake hazard on the Kunlun Fault, Tibet, Tectonophysics482(2010)216-225.
[12] Bin Shan, Xiong Xiong, Rongjiang Wang, Yong Zheng, Song Yang, Coulomb stress evolution along Xianshuihe-Xiaojiang fault system since 1713 and its interaction with Wenchuan earthquake, May 12, 2008, Earth Planet. Sci. Lett.377-378(2013)199-210.
[13] M.L. Chevalier, Haibing Li, Jiawei Pan, Junling Pei, Fuyao Wu, Wei Xu,Zhiming Sun, Dongliang Liu, Fast slip-rate along the northern end of the Karakorum fault system, western Tibet, Geophys. Res. Lett. 38(22)(2011)116-120.
[14] Jie Chen, Guosheng Qu, Jun Hu, Feng Xianyue, Arcuate thrust tectonics and its contemporary seismicity in the eastern section of the external zone of the Pamir, Seismol. Geol. 19(4)(1997)301-312.
[15] J. Jackson, P. Molnar, H. Patton, T. Fitch, Seismotectonic aspects of the Markansu valley, Tajikstan, earthquake of August 11, 1974, J. Geophys. Res. 84(1979)8157-9187.
[16] Maoyuan Yang, Peiyi Shu, Wenhu Zhou, Determination of the source parameters of the Wuqia earthquake in Xinjiang from far field P-Waveform,Earthq. Res. China 04(1985)77-82.
[17] Feng Xianyue, The Paleo earthquakes in Xinjiang Region, China, Xinjiang Science, Technology and Health Publishing House, Urumchi, 1997, pp. 33-34.
[18] V.S. Burtman, P. Molnar, Geological and geophysical evidence for deep subduction of continental crust beneath the Pamir, Spec. Paper Geol. Soc. Am. 281(1993)76.
[19] D.L. Wells, K.J. Coppersmith, New empirical relationships among magnitude,rupture length, rupture width, rupture area, and surface displacement, Bull.Seismol. Soc. Am. 84(1994)974-1002.
[20] E. Papadimitriou, Xueze Wen, V. Karakostas, Jin Xue shen, Earthquake triggering along the Xianshuihe fault zone of Western Sichuan,China, Pure Appl.Geophys. 161(2004)1683-1707.
[21] Wei Xiong, Kai Tan, Qiao Xuejun, Liu Gang, Zhaosheng Nie, Coseismic, postseismic and inter seismic Coulomb stress evolution along the Himalayan main frontal thrust Since 1803, Pure Appl. Geophys. 174(2017)1889-1905.
[22] Jie Li, Gang Liu, Qiao Xuejun, Wei Xiong, Qi Wang, Rupture characteristics of the 25 November 2016 Akteoearthquake(Mw6.6)in eastern Pamir revealed by GPS and teleseismic data, Pure Appl. Geophys. 175(2)(2018)1-13.
[23] C.H. Scholz, The Mechanics of Earthquakes and Faulting, Cambridge Univ.-Press, NewYork, 1990, p. 439.
[24] T. Parsons, R.S. Stein, R.W. Simpson, Stress sensitivity of fault seismicity:a comparison between limited-offset oblique and major strike-slip faults,J. Geophys. Res. 104(1999)20183-20202.
[25] Rongjiang Wang, F. Lorenzo-Martin, F. Roth, PSGRN/PSCMP-a new code for calculating co-and post-seismic deformation, geoid and gravity changesbased on the viscoelastic-gravitational dislocation theory, Comput. Geosci. 32(4)(2006)527-541.
[26] Yaolin Shi, Jianlin Cao, Lithosphere effective viscosity of continental China,Earth Sci. Front. 15(3)(2008)82-95.
[27] Yangmao Wen, Zhenghong Li, Caijun Xu, Isabelle Ryder, Burgmann Roland,Postseismic motion after the 2001 Mw7.8 Kooxili earthquake in Tibet observed by InSAR time series, J. Geophys. Res. 117(8)(2012)B08405.
[28] Caijun Xu, Jianjun Wang, Zhenghong Li, et al., Applying the Coulomb failure function with an optimally oriented plane to the 2008 Mw7.9 Wenchuan earthquake triggering, Tectonophysics 491(1-4)(2010)119-126.
[29] Bin Shan, Jiahang Li, Libo Han, Lihua Fang, Yang Song, Bikai Jin, Yong Zheng,Xiong Xiong, Coseismic Coulomb stress change caused by 2010 MS=7.1 Yushu earthquake and its influence to 2011 MS=5.2 Nangqen earthquake, Chin. J.Geophys. 55(09)(2012)3028-3042.
[30] Shuai Wang, Caijun Xu, Yangmao Wen, Zhi Yin, Guoyan Jiang, Lihua Fang, Slip model for the 25 November 2016 Mw 6.6 Aketao earthquake, western China,revealed by Sentinel-1 and ALOS-2 observations, Rem. Sens. 9(9)(2017),https://doi.org/10.3390/rs9040325.
[31] Xiwei Xu, Guoyan Jiang, Guihua Yu, Discussion on seismogenic fault of the Ludian Ms6.5 earthquake and its tectonic attribution, Chin. J. Geophys. 57(9)(2014)3060-3068.
[32] A.M. Freed, Jian Lin, Delayed triggering of the 1999 Hector Mine earthquake by viscoelastic stress transfer, Nature 411(6834)(2001)180-183.
[33] A.M. Freed, S.T. Ali, R. Burgmann, Evolution of stress in Southern California for the past 200 years from coseismic, postseismic and interseismic stress changes, Geophys. J. Int. 169(3)(2007)1164-1179.
[34] S.T. Ali, A.M. Freed, E. Calais, Coulomb stress evolution in Northeastern Caribbean over the past 250 years due to coseismic, postseismic and interseismic deformation, Geophys. J. Int. 174(2008)904-918.
[35] Xinglin Lei, Shengli Ma, Jinrong Su, Xiaolong Wang, Inelastic triggering of the2013 Mw 6.6 Lushan earthquake by the 2008 Mw7.9 Wenchuan earthquake,Seismol. Geol. 35(2)(2013)411-422.
[36] Yongge Wan, Zhengkang Shen, Shuzhong Sheng, Xiaofeng Xu, The influence of 2008 Wenchuan earthquake on surrounding faults, Acta Seismol. Sin. 31(2)(2009)128-139.
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