华南地区低温雨雪事件的时空变化特征
|
摘要
利用华南地区的广西壮族自治区和广东省的178个气象站1951—2012年的观测资料,对华南地区单站和区域持续性低温雨雪事件进行了定义和检测,并对其时空变化特征进行了分析,目的是为华南冬季低温雨雪事件预测及低温雨雪灾害对生态环境影响预估提供参考。结果表明:华南地区单站低温雨雪事件主要发生在23°N以北地区,事件高频区主要集中在广西的东北部和广东的西北部,而区域持续性低温雨雪事件则主要发生在24°N以北,事件影响区域与单站事件高频区基本相同;单站和区域持续性低温雨雪事件发生频次最多的月份都是1月,2月次之,且都是在20世纪七八十年代发生次数较多,这与华南区域冬季气温的气候变化特征较为相符;低温雨雪事件的发生与海拔有密切关系,海拔在100～200 m的站点较容易发生低温雨雪事件;利用冷湿指数分析区域持续性低温雨雪事件的强度发现,严重的事件多发生在70年代,进入90年代后,呈现减少的趋势,但事件的严重性及造成的灾害趋于极端。
We defined and detected the station-based and regional persistent cold rain and snow events over South China( Guangxi and Guangdong) using observation data from 178 stations during 1951-2012,and analyzed their spatio-temporal variation. We aimed to provide a reference for the prediction of cold rain and snow events and for the estimation of the impacts of cold rain and snow events on ecological environment in winter over South China. Station-based events over South China occurred mainly in the north of 23°N,and high-frequency events area mainly concentrated over northeast Guangxi and northwest Guangdong. The regional events mainly occurred in the north of 24°N,and high-frequency events area was similar with the station-based events.The most station-based and regional persistent cold rain and snow events occurred in January,followed by February. The events were more frequent in the 1970 s and 1980 s,consistent with the climatic change characteristics of winter temperature over South China. The occurrence of cold rain and snow events was closely related to elevation and terrain. The events occurred more easily in the stations with elevation between 100-200 m. The analysis of the intensity of regional persistent cold rain and snow events using the cold-wet index showed that serious events were more frequent in the 1970 s. After the 1990 s,the serious events tended to be reduced but the severity was more extreme.
We defined and detected the station-based and regional persistent cold rain and snow events over South China( Guangxi and Guangdong) using observation data from 178 stations during 1951-2012,and analyzed their spatio-temporal variation. We aimed to provide a reference for the prediction of cold rain and snow events and for the estimation of the impacts of cold rain and snow events on ecological environment in winter over South China. Station-based events over South China occurred mainly in the north of 23°N,and high-frequency events area mainly concentrated over northeast Guangxi and northwest Guangdong. The regional events mainly occurred in the north of 24°N,and high-frequency events area was similar with the station-based events.The most station-based and regional persistent cold rain and snow events occurred in January,followed by February. The events were more frequent in the 1970 s and 1980 s,consistent with the climatic change characteristics of winter temperature over South China. The occurrence of cold rain and snow events was closely related to elevation and terrain. The events occurred more easily in the stations with elevation between 100-200 m. The analysis of the intensity of regional persistent cold rain and snow events using the cold-wet index showed that serious events were more frequent in the 1970 s. After the 1990 s,the serious events tended to be reduced but the severity was more extreme.
引文
曹丽娟,严中伟.2011.地面气候资料均一性研究进展.气候变化研究进展,7(2):129-135.
陈阳,翟盘茂.2012.中国持续性暴雨特征分析.S1灾害天气研究与预报.
丁一汇,王遵娅,宋亚芳,等.2008.中国南方2008年1月罕见低温雨雪冰冻灾害发生的原因及其与气候变暖的关系.气象学报,66(5):808-824.
龚志强,王晓娟,崔冬林,等.2012.区域性极端低温事件的识别及其变化特征.应用气象学报,23(2):195-204.
龚志强,王晓娟,任福民,等.2013.亚欧中纬度关键区正位势高度距平场配置与中国冬季区域性极端低温事件的联系.大气科学,37(6):1274-1286.
国家气候中心.2008.2008年初我国南方低温雨雪冰冻灾害及气候分析.北京:气象出版社.
何洁琳,黄卓,谢敏,等.2017.广西生物多样性优先保护区的气候变化风险评估.生态学杂志,36(9):2581-2591.
李灿,张端禹,冯明,等.2009.南方极端低温雨雪冰冻过程天气学特征分析.暴雨灾害,28(4):35-41.
李崇银,杨辉,顾薇.2008.中国南方雨雪冰冻异常天气原因的分析.气候与环境研究,13(2):113-122.
李庆祥.2011.气候资料均一性导论.北京:气象出版社.
栾启福,卢萍,肖复明,等.2008.雨雪冰冻重灾区湿地松受害情况调查及其原因初步分析.林业科学,44(11):50-54.
陆虹,翟盘茂,覃卫坚,等.2015.低温雨雪过程的粒子群-神经网络预报模型.应用气象学报,26(5):513-524.
毛淑君,李栋梁.2015.基于气象要素的我国南方低温雨雪冰冻综合评估.冰川冻土,37(1):14-26.
朴金波,王玉涛.2009.我国南方低温雨雪冰冻灾害对森林生态安全的影响与消除对策.中国应急管理,(1):26-29.
陶诗言,卫捷.2008.2008年1月我国南方严重冰雪灾害过程分析.气候与环境研究,13(4):337-350.
王东海,柳崇健,刘英,等.2008.2008年1月中国南方低温雨雪冰冻天气特征及其天气动力学成因的初步分析气象学报,66(3):405-422.
王海军,覃军,张峻.2010.中国南方7省冰冻天气时空分布规律研究.长江流域资源与环境,19(7):839-846.
王凌,高歌,张强,等.2008.2008年1月我国大范围低温雨雪冰冻灾害分析.Ⅰ.气候特征与影响评估.气象,34(4):95-100.
王秋香,李庆祥,周浩楠,等.2012.中国降水序列均一性研究及对比分析.气象,38(11):1390-1398.
王绍武.2008.中国冷冬的气候特征.气候变化研究进展,4(2):68-72.
王晓娟,龚志强,沈柏竹,等.2013.近50年中国区域性极端低温事件频发期的气候特征对比分析研究.气象学报,71(6):1061-1073.
王遵娅,张强,陈峪,等.2008.2008年初我国低温雨雪冰冻灾害的气候特征.气候变化研究进展,4(2):63-67.
薛建辉,胡海波.2008.,冰雪灾害对森林生态系统的影响与减灾对策.林业科学,44(4):1-2.
徐雅雯,吴可可,朱丽蓉,等.2010.中国南方雨雪冰冻灾害受损森林植被研究进展.生态环境学报,26(6):1485-1494.
杨锋伟,鲁绍伟,王兵.2008.南方雨雪冰冻灾害受损森林生态系统生态服务功能价值评估.林业科学,44(11):101-110.
姚蓉,许霖,张海,等.2012.湖南2008/2011年两次低温雨雪冰冻灾害成因与影响对比分析.灾害学,27(4):75-79.
张宗婕,钱维宏.2012.中国冬半年区域持续性低温事件的前期信号.大气科学,36(6):1269-1279.
赵晓萌,李栋梁,熊海星,等.2011.西南地区覆冰气象要素的变化特征及综合评估.自然资源学报,26(5):802-813
赵晓萌,李栋梁.2012.基于GIS的中国西南地区覆冰气象条件评估.冰川冻土,34(3):547-554
中国气象局.2011.华南区域气候变化报告决策者摘要.北京:气象出版社.
Alexandersson H.1986.A homogeneity test applied to precipitation data.Journal of Climatology,6:661-675.
Ca1izares R,Irish JL.2008.Simulation of storm-induced barrier island morphodynamics and flooding.Coastal Engineering,55:1089-1101.
Jalkanen A,Mattila U.2000.Logistic regression models for wind and snow damage in northern Finland based on the National Forest Inventory data.Forest Ecology and Management,135:315-330.
Lirman D.2003.A simulation model of the population dynamics of the branching coral Acropora palmata:Effects of storm intensity and frequency.Ecological Modelling,161:169-182.
Peltola H,Kellomaki S,Valsanen H,et al.1999.A mechanistic model for assessing the risk of wind and snow damage to single trees and stands of Scots pine,Norway spruce,and birch.Canadian Journal of Forest Research,29:647-661.
Qian X,Miao Q,Zhai P,et al.2014.Cold-wet spells in mainland China during 1951-2011.Natural Hazards,74:931-946.
Wang XL,Wen QH,Wu Y.2007.Penalized maximal t-test for detecting undocumented mean change in climate data series.Journal of Applied Meteorology&Climatology,46:916-931.
Wang XL.2008.Accounting for autocorrelation in detecting mean shifts in climate data series using the penalized maximal t or F test.Journal of Applied Meteorology&Climatology,47:2423-2444.
Zhang H,Qin J,Li Y.2011.Climatic background of cold and wet winter in southern China:Part I.Observational analysis.Climate Dynamics,37:2335-2354.
陈阳,翟盘茂.2012.中国持续性暴雨特征分析.S1灾害天气研究与预报.
丁一汇,王遵娅,宋亚芳,等.2008.中国南方2008年1月罕见低温雨雪冰冻灾害发生的原因及其与气候变暖的关系.气象学报,66(5):808-824.
龚志强,王晓娟,崔冬林,等.2012.区域性极端低温事件的识别及其变化特征.应用气象学报,23(2):195-204.
龚志强,王晓娟,任福民,等.2013.亚欧中纬度关键区正位势高度距平场配置与中国冬季区域性极端低温事件的联系.大气科学,37(6):1274-1286.
国家气候中心.2008.2008年初我国南方低温雨雪冰冻灾害及气候分析.北京:气象出版社.
何洁琳,黄卓,谢敏,等.2017.广西生物多样性优先保护区的气候变化风险评估.生态学杂志,36(9):2581-2591.
李灿,张端禹,冯明,等.2009.南方极端低温雨雪冰冻过程天气学特征分析.暴雨灾害,28(4):35-41.
李崇银,杨辉,顾薇.2008.中国南方雨雪冰冻异常天气原因的分析.气候与环境研究,13(2):113-122.
李庆祥.2011.气候资料均一性导论.北京:气象出版社.
栾启福,卢萍,肖复明,等.2008.雨雪冰冻重灾区湿地松受害情况调查及其原因初步分析.林业科学,44(11):50-54.
陆虹,翟盘茂,覃卫坚,等.2015.低温雨雪过程的粒子群-神经网络预报模型.应用气象学报,26(5):513-524.
毛淑君,李栋梁.2015.基于气象要素的我国南方低温雨雪冰冻综合评估.冰川冻土,37(1):14-26.
朴金波,王玉涛.2009.我国南方低温雨雪冰冻灾害对森林生态安全的影响与消除对策.中国应急管理,(1):26-29.
陶诗言,卫捷.2008.2008年1月我国南方严重冰雪灾害过程分析.气候与环境研究,13(4):337-350.
王东海,柳崇健,刘英,等.2008.2008年1月中国南方低温雨雪冰冻天气特征及其天气动力学成因的初步分析气象学报,66(3):405-422.
王海军,覃军,张峻.2010.中国南方7省冰冻天气时空分布规律研究.长江流域资源与环境,19(7):839-846.
王凌,高歌,张强,等.2008.2008年1月我国大范围低温雨雪冰冻灾害分析.Ⅰ.气候特征与影响评估.气象,34(4):95-100.
王秋香,李庆祥,周浩楠,等.2012.中国降水序列均一性研究及对比分析.气象,38(11):1390-1398.
王绍武.2008.中国冷冬的气候特征.气候变化研究进展,4(2):68-72.
王晓娟,龚志强,沈柏竹,等.2013.近50年中国区域性极端低温事件频发期的气候特征对比分析研究.气象学报,71(6):1061-1073.
王遵娅,张强,陈峪,等.2008.2008年初我国低温雨雪冰冻灾害的气候特征.气候变化研究进展,4(2):63-67.
薛建辉,胡海波.2008.,冰雪灾害对森林生态系统的影响与减灾对策.林业科学,44(4):1-2.
徐雅雯,吴可可,朱丽蓉,等.2010.中国南方雨雪冰冻灾害受损森林植被研究进展.生态环境学报,26(6):1485-1494.
杨锋伟,鲁绍伟,王兵.2008.南方雨雪冰冻灾害受损森林生态系统生态服务功能价值评估.林业科学,44(11):101-110.
姚蓉,许霖,张海,等.2012.湖南2008/2011年两次低温雨雪冰冻灾害成因与影响对比分析.灾害学,27(4):75-79.
张宗婕,钱维宏.2012.中国冬半年区域持续性低温事件的前期信号.大气科学,36(6):1269-1279.
赵晓萌,李栋梁,熊海星,等.2011.西南地区覆冰气象要素的变化特征及综合评估.自然资源学报,26(5):802-813
赵晓萌,李栋梁.2012.基于GIS的中国西南地区覆冰气象条件评估.冰川冻土,34(3):547-554
中国气象局.2011.华南区域气候变化报告决策者摘要.北京:气象出版社.
Alexandersson H.1986.A homogeneity test applied to precipitation data.Journal of Climatology,6:661-675.
Ca1izares R,Irish JL.2008.Simulation of storm-induced barrier island morphodynamics and flooding.Coastal Engineering,55:1089-1101.
Jalkanen A,Mattila U.2000.Logistic regression models for wind and snow damage in northern Finland based on the National Forest Inventory data.Forest Ecology and Management,135:315-330.
Lirman D.2003.A simulation model of the population dynamics of the branching coral Acropora palmata:Effects of storm intensity and frequency.Ecological Modelling,161:169-182.
Peltola H,Kellomaki S,Valsanen H,et al.1999.A mechanistic model for assessing the risk of wind and snow damage to single trees and stands of Scots pine,Norway spruce,and birch.Canadian Journal of Forest Research,29:647-661.
Qian X,Miao Q,Zhai P,et al.2014.Cold-wet spells in mainland China during 1951-2011.Natural Hazards,74:931-946.
Wang XL,Wen QH,Wu Y.2007.Penalized maximal t-test for detecting undocumented mean change in climate data series.Journal of Applied Meteorology&Climatology,46:916-931.
Wang XL.2008.Accounting for autocorrelation in detecting mean shifts in climate data series using the penalized maximal t or F test.Journal of Applied Meteorology&Climatology,47:2423-2444.
Zhang H,Qin J,Li Y.2011.Climatic background of cold and wet winter in southern China:Part I.Observational analysis.Climate Dynamics,37:2335-2354.
© 2004-2018 中国地质图书馆版权所有 京ICP备05064691号 京公网安备11010802017129号 地址：北京市海淀区学院路29号 邮编：100083 电话：办公室：(+86 10)66554848；文献借阅、咨询服务、科技查新：66554700 |