北大西洋涛动对新疆冬季极端冷事件的影响
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摘要
利用1961—2016年新疆各站逐日气温、NCEP再分析高度场、风场资料及北大西洋涛动(NAO)指数,分析了新疆1961—2016年冬季出现的极端冷事件频次变化及与其相联系的环流特征。冬季NAO通过欧亚(EU)波列传播影响新疆冬季极端冷事件的变化,但冬季NAO位相与新疆冬季极端冷事件并没有逐年一一对应的负相关关系。在冬季NAO负位相年,由EU波列传播,70°N以北北风偏弱,当乌拉尔山及其以东区域位势高度偏高(低),50°～70°N西风偏弱(强)时,新疆冬季极端冷事件偏多(少);在冬季NAO正位相年,由EU波列传播,70°N以北北风偏强,当乌拉尔山及其以东区域位势高度偏高(低),50°～70°N西风偏弱(强)时,新疆冬季极端冷事件偏多(少)。因此,冬季NAO、乌拉尔山及其以东区域高度场和50°～70°N西风三者共同作用决定了新疆冬季极端冷事件的发生频次,其中乌拉尔山及其以东区域位势高度和50°～70°N西风在冬季NAO对新疆极端冷事件的影响关系中起到了重要的调制作用。
The frequency and circulation of extreme cold events in Xinjiang in winter were analyzed based on the daily air temperature data from the meteorological stations in Xinjiang,NCEP reanalysis data of the height field,wind field,temperature field and North Atlantic Oscillation( NAO) index during the period of 1961-2016. The variation of extreme cold events in Xinjiang in winter was affected by the Eurasia( EU) wave train transmission,in winter,however,there was no one-to-one corresponding negative correlation between the NAO phase and the extreme cold events in Xinjiang in winter. In the winter of NAO negative phase,NAO was spread by the EU wave train,and the north wind was weak in north of 70°N. Under this background,the extreme cold events in Xinjiang in winter were more( less) when the geopotential height over the Ural Mountain and its east region was high( low) and the west wind was weak( strong) in 50°-70°N. In the winter of NAO positive phase,NAO was spread by the EU wave train,and the north wind was strong in north of 70°N. Under this background,the extreme cold events in Xinjiang in winter were more( less) when the geopotential height over the Ural Mountain and its east region was high( low)and the west wind was weak( strong) in 50°-70°N. The result showed that the occurrence frequency of extreme cold events in Xinjiang was mainly affected by the interaction of NAO,the geopotential height field over the Ural Mountain and its east region and the west wind in 50°-70°N,of which,the west wind in 50°-70°N in winter and the geopotential height field over the Ural Mountain and its east region were the main affecting factors.
The frequency and circulation of extreme cold events in Xinjiang in winter were analyzed based on the daily air temperature data from the meteorological stations in Xinjiang,NCEP reanalysis data of the height field,wind field,temperature field and North Atlantic Oscillation( NAO) index during the period of 1961-2016. The variation of extreme cold events in Xinjiang in winter was affected by the Eurasia( EU) wave train transmission,in winter,however,there was no one-to-one corresponding negative correlation between the NAO phase and the extreme cold events in Xinjiang in winter. In the winter of NAO negative phase,NAO was spread by the EU wave train,and the north wind was weak in north of 70°N. Under this background,the extreme cold events in Xinjiang in winter were more( less) when the geopotential height over the Ural Mountain and its east region was high( low) and the west wind was weak( strong) in 50°-70°N. In the winter of NAO positive phase,NAO was spread by the EU wave train,and the north wind was strong in north of 70°N. Under this background,the extreme cold events in Xinjiang in winter were more( less) when the geopotential height over the Ural Mountain and its east region was high( low)and the west wind was weak( strong) in 50°-70°N. The result showed that the occurrence frequency of extreme cold events in Xinjiang was mainly affected by the interaction of NAO,the geopotential height field over the Ural Mountain and its east region and the west wind in 50°-70°N,of which,the west wind in 50°-70°N in winter and the geopotential height field over the Ural Mountain and its east region were the main affecting factors.
引文
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[15]关学锋,孙卫国,李敏娇,等.1965-2012年新疆北部地区气候变化及其对北极涛动的响应[J].干旱区研究,2016,33(4):681-689.[Guan Xuefeng,Sun Weiguo,Li Minjiao,et al.Climate change in North Xinjiang and its response to Arctic Oscillation during the period of 1965-2012[J].Arid Zone Research,2016,33(4):681-689.]
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[18]Hurrell J W.Influence of variations in extratropical wintertime teleconnections on Northern Hemisphere temperature[J].Geophysical Research Letters,1996,23:665-668.
[19]武炳义,黄荣辉.冬季北大西洋涛动极端异常变化与东亚冬季风[J].大气科学,1999,23(6):641-651.[Wu Bingyi,Huang Ronghui.Effects of the extremes in the north Atlantic Oscillation on east Asia winter monsoon[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,1999,23(6):641-651.]
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[21]杨莲梅,张庆云.北大西洋涛动对新疆夏季降水异常的影响[J].大气科学,2008,32(5):1 187-1 196.[Yang Lianmei,Zhang Qingyun.Effects of the North Atlantic Oscillation on the summer rainfall anomalies in Xinjiang[J].Chinese Journal of Atemospheric Sciences,2008,32(5):1 187-1 196.]
[22]Kiktev D,Sexton D M H,Alexander L,et al.Comparison of modeled and observed trends in indices of daily climate extremes[J].Journal of Climate,2003,16(22):3 560-3 570.
[23]魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M].北京:气象出版社,1999.[Wei Fengying.Diagnotic and Predictive Technology in Modern Climatologic Statistics[M].Beijing:China Meteorological Press,1999.]
[24]Liu Y Y,Wang L,Zhou W,et al.Three Eurasian teleconnection patterns:Spatial structures,temporal variability,and associated winter climate anomalies[J].Climate Dynamics,2014,42:2 817-2 839.
[25]Wallace J M,Gutzler D S.Teleconnections in the geopotential heightfield during the Northern Hemisphere winter[J].Monthly Weather Review,1981,109:784-812.
[26]陈文,魏科.大气准定常行星波异常传播及其在平流层影响东亚冬季气候中的作用[J].地球科学进展,2009,24(3):272-285.[Chen Wen,Wei Ke.Anomalous propagation of the quasi-stationary planetary waves in the atmosphere and its roles in the impact of the stratosphere on the east Asian winter climate[J].Advances in Earth Science,2009,24(3):272-285.]
[2]王遵娅,张强,陈峪,等.2008年初我国低温雨雪冰冻灾害的气候特征[J].气候变化研究进展,2008,2(6):63-67.[Wang Zunya,Zhang Qiang,Chen Yu,et al.Characters of meteorological disasters caused by the extreme synoptic process in early 2008 over China[J].Advances in Climate Change Research,2008,2(6):63-67.]
[3]陈颖,李元鹏,辛渝,等.2008年初塔里木盆地低温阴雪过程的气候特征及影响[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2008,2(6):12-15.[Chen Ying,Li Yuanpeng,Xin Yu,et al.Characters and impacts of low temperature and cloudy-snow process over Tarim Basin in early 2008[J].Desert and Oasis Meteorology,2008,2(6):12-15.]
[4]陈颖,江远安,毛炜峄,等.气候变化背景下新疆北部2009/2010年冬季雪灾[J].气候变化研究进展,2011,7(2):104-109.[Chen Ying,Jiang Yuan’an,Mao Weiyi,et al.2009/2010winter snow disaster in northern Xinjiang under global warming[J].Advances in Climate Change Research,2011,7(2):104-109.]
[5]王绍武.中国冷冬的气候特征[J].气候变化研究进展,2011,7(2):104-109.[Wang Shaowu.Climatological aspects of severe winters in China[J].Advance in Climate Change Research,2011,7(2):104-109.]
[6]任福民,翟盘茂.1951-1990年中国极端气温变化分析[J].大气科学,1998,22(2):217-227.[Ren Fumin,Zhai Panmao.Study on changes of China’s extreme temperatures during 1951-1990[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,1998,22(2):217-227.]
[7]翟盘茂,潘晓华.中国北方近50年温度和降水极端事件变化[J].地理学报,2003,58(9):1-10.[Zhai Panmao,Pan Xiaohua.Change in extreme temperature and precipitation over northern China during the second half of the 20th century[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2003,58(9):1-10.]
[8]严中伟,杨赤.近几十年中国极端气候变化格局[J].气候与环境研究,2000,5(3):267-272.[Yan Zhongwei,Yang Chi.Geographic patterns of extreme climate changes in China during1951-1997[J].Climatic and Environmental Research,2000,5(3):267-272.]
[9]刘学华,季致建,吴洪宝,等.中国近年极端气温和降水的分布特征及年代际差异[J].热带气象学报,2006,22(6):618-624.[Liu Xuehua,Ji Zhijian,Wu Hongbao,et al.Distributing characteristics and interdecadal difference of daily temperature and precipitation extremes in China For latest 40 years[J].Journal of Tropical Meteorology,2006,22(6):618-624.]
[10]李维京,李怡,陈丽娟,等.我国冬季气温与影响因子关系的年代际变化[J].应用气象学报,2013,24(4):385-396.[Li Weijing,Li Yi,Chen Lijuan,et al.Inter-decadal variability of the relationship between winter temperature in China and its impact factors[J].Journal of Applied Meteorological Science,2013,24(4):385-396.]
[11]季元中,任宜勇.八十年代新疆气候变暖及其影响的评估[J].新疆气象,1992,15(1):13-18.[Ji Yuanzhong,Ren Yiyong.Assessment of climate warming and its impact in Xinjiang in the1980s[J].Xinjiang Meteorology,1992,15(1):13-18.]
[12]毛炜峄,陈鹏翔,白素琴,等.增暖趋势对新疆冬季气温预测效果的影响[J].干旱区研究,2014,31(5):882-890.[Mao Weiyi,Chen Pengxiang,Bai Suqin,et al.Influence of warming trend on predicted temperature in winter in Xinjiang[J].Arid Zone Research,2014,31(5):882-890.]
[13]陈少勇,王劲松,任燕,等.近49年中国西北地区极端低温事件的演变特征[J].高原气象,2011,30(5):1 266-1 273.[Chen Shaoyong,Wang Jinsong,Reng Yan,et al.Evaluative characteristic of extreme minimum temperature of Northwest China in recent 49 years[J].Plateau Meteorology,2011,30(5):1 266-1 273.]
[14]陈颖,李维京,史红政,等.不同气候背景下新疆冬季极端冷(暖)事件的变化特征[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2016,10(4):21-29.[Chen Ying,Li Weijing,Shi Hongzheng,et al.Variations of extreme cold(warm)events in winter in Xinjiang at different climate background[J].Desert and Oasis Meteorology,2016,10(4):21-29.]
[15]关学锋,孙卫国,李敏娇,等.1965-2012年新疆北部地区气候变化及其对北极涛动的响应[J].干旱区研究,2016,33(4):681-689.[Guan Xuefeng,Sun Weiguo,Li Minjiao,et al.Climate change in North Xinjiang and its response to Arctic Oscillation during the period of 1965-2012[J].Arid Zone Research,2016,33(4):681-689.]
[16]Hurrell J W,Loon H V.Decadal variations in climate association with the North Atlantic Oscillation[J].Climatic Change,1997,36:301-326.
[17]Hurrell J W.Decadal trends in the North Atlantic Oscillation:Regional temperatures and precipitation[J].Science,1995,269:676-679.
[18]Hurrell J W.Influence of variations in extratropical wintertime teleconnections on Northern Hemisphere temperature[J].Geophysical Research Letters,1996,23:665-668.
[19]武炳义,黄荣辉.冬季北大西洋涛动极端异常变化与东亚冬季风[J].大气科学,1999,23(6):641-651.[Wu Bingyi,Huang Ronghui.Effects of the extremes in the north Atlantic Oscillation on east Asia winter monsoon[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,1999,23(6):641-651.]
[20]柴晶品,刁一娜.北大西洋涛动指数变化与北半球冬季阻塞活动[J].大气科学,2011,35(2):326-338.[Chai Jingpin,Diao Yina.The effect of the variation of the North Atlantic Oscillation on winter blocking activities in the Northern Hemiphere[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,2011,35(2):326-338.]
[21]杨莲梅,张庆云.北大西洋涛动对新疆夏季降水异常的影响[J].大气科学,2008,32(5):1 187-1 196.[Yang Lianmei,Zhang Qingyun.Effects of the North Atlantic Oscillation on the summer rainfall anomalies in Xinjiang[J].Chinese Journal of Atemospheric Sciences,2008,32(5):1 187-1 196.]
[22]Kiktev D,Sexton D M H,Alexander L,et al.Comparison of modeled and observed trends in indices of daily climate extremes[J].Journal of Climate,2003,16(22):3 560-3 570.
[23]魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M].北京:气象出版社,1999.[Wei Fengying.Diagnotic and Predictive Technology in Modern Climatologic Statistics[M].Beijing:China Meteorological Press,1999.]
[24]Liu Y Y,Wang L,Zhou W,et al.Three Eurasian teleconnection patterns:Spatial structures,temporal variability,and associated winter climate anomalies[J].Climate Dynamics,2014,42:2 817-2 839.
[25]Wallace J M,Gutzler D S.Teleconnections in the geopotential heightfield during the Northern Hemisphere winter[J].Monthly Weather Review,1981,109:784-812.
[26]陈文,魏科.大气准定常行星波异常传播及其在平流层影响东亚冬季气候中的作用[J].地球科学进展,2009,24(3):272-285.[Chen Wen,Wei Ke.Anomalous propagation of the quasi-stationary planetary waves in the atmosphere and its roles in the impact of the stratosphere on the east Asian winter climate[J].Advances in Earth Science,2009,24(3):272-285.]
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