基于有效降雨强度和逻辑回归的降雨型滑坡预测模型

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英文篇名：Prediction of rainfall-type landslides based on effective rainfall intensity and logistic regression 作者：盛逸凡 ; 李远耀 ; 徐勇 ; 吴吉明 ; 林巍 英文作者：SHENG Yifan;LI Yuanyao;XU Yong;WU Jiming;LIN Wei;Institute of Geological Survey,China University of Geosciences(Wuhan);Wuhan Geological Survey Center,China Geological Survey; 关键词：滑坡 ; 有效降雨强度 ; 逻辑回归 ; 滑坡预测模型 ; 湖南桑植县 英文关键词：landslide;;effective rainfall intensity;;logistic regression;;landslide prediction model;;Sangzhi county 中文刊名：SWDG 英文刊名：Hydrogeology & Engineering Geology 机构：中国地质大学(武汉)地质调查研究院;中国地质调查局武汉地质调查中心; 出版日期：2019-01-15 出版单位：水文地质工程地质 年：2019 期：v.46;No.285 基金：国家自然科学基金资助项目“堆积层滑坡地表变形裂缝的水力性质及降雨入渗规律研究”(41702330);; 中国地质调查局地质调查项目“武陵山区湘西北城镇地质灾害调查项目”(DD20160275) 语种：中文; 页：SWDG201901021 页数：8 CN：01 ISSN：11-2202/P 分类号：160-166+176

摘要

以湖南省张家界市桑植县为研究区,在全面分析近30年降雨及滑坡数据的基础上,对滑坡及滑坡数量与降雨因子的关系开展了统计分析研究。首先确定了区域最佳有效降雨衰减系数,同时分别按滑坡规模、坡度、厚度大小统计了降雨与历史滑坡信息,得出有效降雨强度(I)与持续时间(D)散点图,由此确定各不同概率下诱发滑坡的区域有效降雨强度阈值,并进行了滑坡灾害危险性等级划分。进而,利用部分样本数据进行逻辑回归分析,得到了该研究区的滑坡发生概率预测方程,并给出了降雨强度临界值定量表达式,最后选用实际降雨诱发滑坡事件与未诱发滑坡事件进行对比验证。结果表明,文章所建立的滑坡预测模型准确性较高,预测情况与实际情况比较吻合。
        The Sangzhi district of Hunan is taken as the research area.Based on the comprehensive analysis of rainfall and landslide data of the past 30 years in this area,the correlation and partial correlation analysis are carried out between the cumulative rainfall factors,the rainfall factors and the occurrence or not of landslides and the number of landslides.The optimal effective rainfall attenuation coefficient is determined as 0.8.According to the volume and scale of rainfall monitoring data and historical landslide information,the scattered plot of effective rainfall intensity(I) and duration(D) is obtained.The effective rainfall intensity threshold of the landslide induced by each probability is determined,and the classification of landslide hazard grade is carried out.Using the binary data,the logistic regression of the sample data is conducted,and the disaster probability prediction equation of the study area is obtained.The expression of the critical value of the rainfall intensity induced by the landslide in the study area is also obtained.The rainfall landslide event and the rainfall landslide event are selected for verification.The results show that the landslide prediction model established in this paper is of high accuracy and can provide a scientific basis for rainfall landslide prediction.

引文

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