北京产业疏解带动人口疏解的政策效应
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摘要
产业疏解带动人口疏解已成为首都调控人口的基本思路。以制造业为例,探讨京津冀协同发展背景下的产业转移特点和趋势,并在此基础上深入剖析产业转移对区域就业的影响。研究发现:京津冀地区产业转移路径较为清晰,北京多数衰退产业都可以在天津和河北找到选择区位。北京制造业的转移减少了劳动力的需求,且与其他影响因素相比,产业转移的就业负面效应微小。产出和工资水平是影响就业的关键因素。短期来看,产业转移对京津冀各自的就业存在负面效应;但从长远看,增加了天津和河北劳动力需求,促进了就业。提出了发挥资源优势、减少区域差距、促进津冀经济发展、放缓北京经济增长速度或提高工资水平以实现北京人口调控目标的建议。
Population regulation frame in Beijing is that population should be decentralized by industrial transfer.The paper explores the characteristics and trends of the manufacture industrial transfer,and then the employment effect on manufacture industrial transfer in the coordinated development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei has been discussed.The result shows that there exists a clear manufacture transfer line,which most recession industries in Beijing could be found their location in Tianjin and Hebei.The employment size definitely should be decreased in Beijing because of some manufacture industries out.But the effect on industrial transfer is much tinier than that of output increase and wage.The output increase and wage are the key factors to employment size.In short time there is the negative effect of employment,while in long time there is the positive effect of employment on industrial decentralization in Tianjin and Hebei.Therefore,some advice should be put forward such as to enhance the labor absorption capacity of Tianjin and Hebei,to reduce regional development gap.Slowing down Beijing's economic growth or increasing the wage level would be more better way to achieve the population regulation goal than decentralizing industry.
Population regulation frame in Beijing is that population should be decentralized by industrial transfer.The paper explores the characteristics and trends of the manufacture industrial transfer,and then the employment effect on manufacture industrial transfer in the coordinated development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei has been discussed.The result shows that there exists a clear manufacture transfer line,which most recession industries in Beijing could be found their location in Tianjin and Hebei.The employment size definitely should be decreased in Beijing because of some manufacture industries out.But the effect on industrial transfer is much tinier than that of output increase and wage.The output increase and wage are the key factors to employment size.In short time there is the negative effect of employment,while in long time there is the positive effect of employment on industrial decentralization in Tianjin and Hebei.Therefore,some advice should be put forward such as to enhance the labor absorption capacity of Tianjin and Hebei,to reduce regional development gap.Slowing down Beijing's economic growth or increasing the wage level would be more better way to achieve the population regulation goal than decentralizing industry.
引文
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[9]杨伟肖,孙桂平,马秀杰,等.京津冀城市群经济网络结构分析[J].地域研究与开发,2016,35(2):1-5.
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[11]何仁伟,谢磊,孙威.京津冀城市群城市化质量综合评价研究[J].地域研究与开发,2016,35(6):42-47.
[12]鲁金萍,刘玉,杨振武,等.京津冀区域制造业产业转移研究[J].科技管理研究,2015(11):86-89.
[13]李然,马萌.京津冀产业转移的行业选择及布局优化[J].经济问题,2016(1):124-129.
[14]张杰斐,席强敏,孙铁山,等.京津冀区域制造业分工与转移[J].人文地理,2016,31(4):95-101.
[15]李俊玮,高菠阳.产业转移的就业效应研究---基于区域间投入产出表分析[J].工业经济论坛,2015,2(3):61-69.
[16]王继源,陈璋,胡国良.京津冀协同发展下北京市人口调控:产业疏解带动人口疏解[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2015,25(10):111-117.
[17]孙威,毛凌潇,唐志鹏.基于敏感度模型的非首都功能疏解时序研究[J].地理研究,2016,35(10):1819-1830.
[18]侯慧丽.产业疏解能带动人口疏解吗?基于北京市流动人口定居意愿的视角[J].北京社会科学,2016(7):46-54.
(1)相关数据结果可向作者索取。
(1)利用投入产出表计算发现,以纺织业、纺织服装鞋帽、皮革羽绒及其制品业为代表的劳动密集型产业对就业的带动作用最大;交通运输设备制造业、仪器仪表及文化办公用机械制造业和通信设备、计算机及其电子设备制造业紧随其后。
[2]BAKER G P,HUBBARD T N.Make versus Buy in Trucking:Asset Ownership,Job Design,and Information[J].American Economic Review,2003,93(3):551-572.
[3]EGGER H,FALKINGER J.The Distributional Effects of International Outsourcing in A 2×2 Production Model[J].North American Journal of Economics&Finance,2003,14(2):189-206.
[4]FALK M,WOLFMAYR Y.Services and Materials Outsourcing to Low-wage Countries and Employment:Empirical Evidence from EU Countries[J].Structural Change&Economic Dynamics,2008,19(1):38-52.
[5]GRUSKY D B.Good Jobs,Bad Jobs:The Rise of Polarized and Precarious Employment Systems in the United States[J].American Journal of Sociology,2012,118(3):818-820.
[6]张华初,李永杰.论我国加工贸易的就业效应[J].财贸经济,2004(6):87-89.
[7]孙宇.国际服务外包、结构转型与扩大就业[J].宏观经济研究,2009(2):76-81.
[8]陈仲常,马红旗.我国制造业不同外包形式的就业效应研究---基于动态劳动需求模型的实证检验[J].中国工业经济,2010(4):79-88.
[9]杨伟肖,孙桂平,马秀杰,等.京津冀城市群经济网络结构分析[J].地域研究与开发,2016,35(2):1-5.
[10]任崇强,宗跃光,王燕军.京津冀地区产业结构和竞争力空间分异研究[J].地域研究与开发,2012,31(3):1-5.
[11]何仁伟,谢磊,孙威.京津冀城市群城市化质量综合评价研究[J].地域研究与开发,2016,35(6):42-47.
[12]鲁金萍,刘玉,杨振武,等.京津冀区域制造业产业转移研究[J].科技管理研究,2015(11):86-89.
[13]李然,马萌.京津冀产业转移的行业选择及布局优化[J].经济问题,2016(1):124-129.
[14]张杰斐,席强敏,孙铁山,等.京津冀区域制造业分工与转移[J].人文地理,2016,31(4):95-101.
[15]李俊玮,高菠阳.产业转移的就业效应研究---基于区域间投入产出表分析[J].工业经济论坛,2015,2(3):61-69.
[16]王继源,陈璋,胡国良.京津冀协同发展下北京市人口调控:产业疏解带动人口疏解[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2015,25(10):111-117.
[17]孙威,毛凌潇,唐志鹏.基于敏感度模型的非首都功能疏解时序研究[J].地理研究,2016,35(10):1819-1830.
[18]侯慧丽.产业疏解能带动人口疏解吗?基于北京市流动人口定居意愿的视角[J].北京社会科学,2016(7):46-54.
(1)相关数据结果可向作者索取。
(1)利用投入产出表计算发现,以纺织业、纺织服装鞋帽、皮革羽绒及其制品业为代表的劳动密集型产业对就业的带动作用最大;交通运输设备制造业、仪器仪表及文化办公用机械制造业和通信设备、计算机及其电子设备制造业紧随其后。
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