新疆艾比湖绿洲干燥指数变化特征
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摘要
基于艾比湖绿洲4个气象站1960—2013年逐月的气候资料,计算了干燥指数。结果表明:(1)艾比湖绿洲近54 a干燥指数的均值为6. 97,属于干旱地区,干燥指数呈显著下降趋势,并且持续性较强,下降幅度约为0. 49·(10a)~(-1)(P <0. 05);夏季的干燥指数最大,为9. 04,冬季最小,仅为2. 20。(2)艾比湖绿洲全年干燥指数在1985年发生突变性减小,夏季和冬季发生突变性减小的年份为1991年和1983年,而春季和秋季不存在突变点。(3)艾比湖绿洲干燥指数的演变过程存在着7～8 a和20～21 a的周期变化,其变化的第一主周期为9 a,第二、三周期分别为21 a和5 a。(4)干燥指数对于风速的变化最为敏感,并且相对贡献率最高,而日照时数的变化最不敏感。
In this paper,the values of annual and seasonal aridity index in the Ebinur Lake Oasis in Xinjiang,China were calculated based on the measured data of monthly precipitation,wind speed,relative humidity and radiation at four meteorological stations in the oasis during the period from1960 to 2013. The linear fitting method,MannKendall mutation test,wavelet analysis and climate sensitivity coefficient test were used. The results are as follows:(1) The average aridity index of the Ebinur Lake Oasis was 6. 97 in recent 54 years,and it suggested that the study area could be categorized as an arid region. The aridity index was in a significant decrease trend with an average rate of 0. 49·( 10 a)~(-1)( P < 0. 05). The average aridity index in summer was as high as 9. 04,but its minimum value in winter was 2. 20 only;(2) The annual aridity index in the Ebinur Lake Oasis was sharply decreased in 1985.Seasonally,the sharp decrease of aridity index in summer and winter occurred in 1991 and 1983 respectively,however,there was no mutation of aridity index in spring and autumn;(3) There were 7-8-year and 20-21-year periodic variations of aridity index in the Ebinur Lake Oasis in recent 54 years,the first principal period of aridity index variation was for 9 years,and the second and third periodical changes were for 21 years and 5 years respectively;(4) The aridity index in the Ebinur Lake Oasis was the most sensitive to the change of wind speed,the contribution of wind speed change to the variation of aridity index was the highest,and the aridity index was not sensitive to the change of sunshine duration.
In this paper,the values of annual and seasonal aridity index in the Ebinur Lake Oasis in Xinjiang,China were calculated based on the measured data of monthly precipitation,wind speed,relative humidity and radiation at four meteorological stations in the oasis during the period from1960 to 2013. The linear fitting method,MannKendall mutation test,wavelet analysis and climate sensitivity coefficient test were used. The results are as follows:(1) The average aridity index of the Ebinur Lake Oasis was 6. 97 in recent 54 years,and it suggested that the study area could be categorized as an arid region. The aridity index was in a significant decrease trend with an average rate of 0. 49·( 10 a)~(-1)( P < 0. 05). The average aridity index in summer was as high as 9. 04,but its minimum value in winter was 2. 20 only;(2) The annual aridity index in the Ebinur Lake Oasis was sharply decreased in 1985.Seasonally,the sharp decrease of aridity index in summer and winter occurred in 1991 and 1983 respectively,however,there was no mutation of aridity index in spring and autumn;(3) There were 7-8-year and 20-21-year periodic variations of aridity index in the Ebinur Lake Oasis in recent 54 years,the first principal period of aridity index variation was for 9 years,and the second and third periodical changes were for 21 years and 5 years respectively;(4) The aridity index in the Ebinur Lake Oasis was the most sensitive to the change of wind speed,the contribution of wind speed change to the variation of aridity index was the highest,and the aridity index was not sensitive to the change of sunshine duration.
引文
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[10]马柱国,符淙斌.中国北方干旱区地表湿润状况的趋势分析[J].气象学报,2001,59(6):737-746.[Ma Zhuguo,Fu Congbin.Trend of surface humid index in the arid area of Northern China[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,2001,59(6):737-746.]
[11]曹言,王杰,黄英,等.基于干燥指数的近45年云南滇中地区干湿状况的变化特征[J].水土保持研究,2018,25(1):243-249.[Cao Yan,Wang Jie,Huang Ying,et al.Variation characteristics of dry-wet conditions in central Yunnan in recent 45 years based on dry index[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2018,25(1):243-249.]
[12]王菱,谢贤群,李运生,等.中国北方地区40年来湿润指数和气候干湿带界线的变化[J].地理研究,2004,23(1):45-54.[Wang Ling,Xie Xianqun,Li Yunsheng,et al.Changes of humid index and borderline of wet and dry climate zone in Northern China over the past 40 years[J].Geographical Research,2004,23(1):45-54.]
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[14]普宗朝,张山清,王胜兰,等.近48 a新疆干湿气候时空变化特征[J].中国沙漠,2011,31(6):1 563-1 572.[Pu Zongchao,Zhang Shanqing,Wang Shenglan,et al.The spatial-temporal variation characteristic of dry-wet climate in recent 48 years in Xinjiang province,China[J].Journal of Desert Research,2011,31(6):1 563-1 572.]
[15]谭娇,丁建丽,董煜,等.新疆艾比湖绿洲潜在蒸散量年代际变化特征[J].农业工程学报,2017,33(5):143-148.[Tan Jiao,Ding Jianli,Dong Yu,et al.Decadal variation of potential evapotranspiration in Ebinur Lake oasis of Xinjiang[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering,2017,33(5):143-148.]
[16]热孜宛古丽·麦麦提依明,杨建军,刘巍.艾比湖流域1957-2013年潜在蒸散、气温、降水变化特征分析[J].冰川冻土,2016,38(1):69-76.[Reziwanguli Maimaitiyiming,Yang Jianjun,Liu Wei.Changing characteristics of potential evapotranspiration,air temperature and precipitation in Ebinur Lake basin from1957 to 2013[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2016,38(1):69-76.]
[17]许兴斌,王勇辉,姚俊强.艾比湖流域气候变化及对地表水资源的影响[J].水土保持研究,2015,22(3):121-126.[Xu Xingbin,Wang Yonghun,Yao Junqiang.Impact of the climate change of Ebinur Lake Basin on surface water resources[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2015,22(3):121-126.]
[18]秦鹏,刘强.艾比湖流域潜在蒸散量时空变化特征[J].中国农村水利水电,2017(6):111-117.[Qin Peng,Liu Qiang.Spatiotemporal variation of evapotranspiration in Ebinur Lake Basin from1961 to 2012[J].China Rural Water and Hydropower,2017(6):111-117.]
[19]李颖,孜比布拉·司马义,董煜,等.艾比湖绿洲地区降水变化规律及突变分析[J].节水灌溉,2017(10):41-45.[Li Ying,Zibibula Simayi,Dong Yu,et al.Analysis of variation rules and abrupt changes of precipitation in Aibi Lake Oasis[J].Water Saving Irrigation,2017(10):41-45.]
[20]Allan R G,Pereira L S,Raes D,et al.Crop evapotranspiration:Guidelines for computing crop water requirements[M].FAO Irrigation and Drainage Paper,1998,56.
[21]吴绍洪,尹云鹤,郑度,等.近30年中国陆地表层干湿状况研究[J].中国科学:地球科学,2005,35(3):276-283.[Wu Shaohong,Yin Yunhe,Zheng Du,et al.Study on dry-wet conditions of land surface in China in recent 30 years[J].Science in China Ser.D Earth Sciences,2005,35(3):276-283.]
[22]甄英,姜锐,何静.青海玉树地区近61年气候变化特征分析[J].西南师范大学学报(自然科学版),2017,42(4):102-107.[Zhen Ying,Jiang Rui,He Jing.Analysis of climate change characteristics in Yushu area of Qinghai in recent 61 years[J].Journal of Southwest China Normal University(Natural Science E-dition),2017,42(4):102-107.]
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