基于PVAR模型的东北地区城市化、工业化与人口集聚分析
|
摘要
城市化和工业化进程中东北人口流动和空间分布问题具有重要意义。本文分析了东北地区城市化和工业化的历史演进过程及发展特点,利用1987-2015年的相关城市数据,运用PVAR模型,通过系统广义矩估计(GMM)、格兰杰因果检验、脉冲响应分析等方法研究工业化、城市化和东北人口集聚之间的关系。结果显示城市化水平的提升强化了"沈阳、大连、长春、哈尔滨"四个中心城市的影响力,有利于全省人口向四个中心城市集聚。以重工业发展模式和资本密集型投资倾向为特征的东北工业化发展不利于人口的集聚,另外市场化进程缓慢和指令性经济的影响弱化了工业化与城市化之间的循环累积效应,导致工业化与城市化的互动影响较弱且持续时间不长。在进一步讨论中,运用静态面板数据模型进行稳健性检验,发现结论与PVAR模型一致。目前在东北人口流失的背景下,东北地区应该充分发挥区域中心城市和大城市的规模效益和资源集聚优势,合理安排产业比例,完善产业布局,确定好重工业与轻工业的发展关系,促使工业化向更高级阶段发展。此外,还要减少城市化与工业化之间的摩擦成本和协调成本,实现两者的互动协调发展,以便更好发挥人口集聚优势,带动东北区域经济的发展。
There is great significance to study the flow and spatial distribution of Northeast population during the process of urbanization and industrialization. Based on the analysis of the historical evolution pro-cess and the development characteristics of urbanization and industrialization in Northeast China,this paper uses the relevant urban data from 1987 to 2015,the PVAR model,the GMM,Granger causality test,impulse response,and other methods to study the relationship between industrialization,urbanization,andpopulation agglomeration in Northeast China. The results show that: The increase in urbanization level hasstrengthened the influence of the four central cities,"Shenyang,Dalian,Changchun,and Harbin". It is beneficial for the population of the whole province to gather in four central cities.Under the influence of heavyindustry development model and capital-intensive investment tendencies,the increase in the level of indus-trialization is not conducive to the agglomeration of the province's population to the four central cities. Inaddition,the slow marketization process and the influence of the command economy have weakened the cyclical cumulative effect between industrialization and urbanization,resulting in weak interaction between in-dustrialization and urbanization,the duration of which is not long. In further discussion,the static panel data model was used for robustness testing. The findings are consistent with the PVAR model. This article suggests that in the context of the loss of the Northeast population,Northeast should give full play to the econo-mies of scale and resource clustering advantages of big cities and reasonably arrange the proportion of industry,improve the industrial layout,determine the development relationship between heavy industry andlight industry,and promote the development of industrialization to a higher level. In addition,it is necessaryto reduce the frictional cost and coordination cost between urbanization and industrialization,and realizethe interactive and coordinated development of the two in order to bring the advantages of population ag-glomeration and drive the development of the Northeast regional economy.
There is great significance to study the flow and spatial distribution of Northeast population during the process of urbanization and industrialization. Based on the analysis of the historical evolution pro-cess and the development characteristics of urbanization and industrialization in Northeast China,this paper uses the relevant urban data from 1987 to 2015,the PVAR model,the GMM,Granger causality test,impulse response,and other methods to study the relationship between industrialization,urbanization,andpopulation agglomeration in Northeast China. The results show that: The increase in urbanization level hasstrengthened the influence of the four central cities,"Shenyang,Dalian,Changchun,and Harbin". It is beneficial for the population of the whole province to gather in four central cities.Under the influence of heavyindustry development model and capital-intensive investment tendencies,the increase in the level of indus-trialization is not conducive to the agglomeration of the province's population to the four central cities. Inaddition,the slow marketization process and the influence of the command economy have weakened the cyclical cumulative effect between industrialization and urbanization,resulting in weak interaction between in-dustrialization and urbanization,the duration of which is not long. In further discussion,the static panel data model was used for robustness testing. The findings are consistent with the PVAR model. This article suggests that in the context of the loss of the Northeast population,Northeast should give full play to the econo-mies of scale and resource clustering advantages of big cities and reasonably arrange the proportion of industry,improve the industrial layout,determine the development relationship between heavy industry andlight industry,and promote the development of industrialization to a higher level. In addition,it is necessaryto reduce the frictional cost and coordination cost between urbanization and industrialization,and realizethe interactive and coordinated development of the two in order to bring the advantages of population ag-glomeration and drive the development of the Northeast regional economy.
引文
[1]费孝通.中国城镇化之路[M].呼和浩特:内蒙古人民出版社,2010.
[2]秦尊文.论城市规模政策与城市规模效益[J].经济问题,2003,(10):1-3.
[3]樊纲,郭方达.中国城市化和特大城市问题再思考[M].北京:中国经济出版社,2017.
[4]叶裕民.工业化弱质:中国城市化发展的经济障碍[J].中国人民大学学报,2002,(2):73-79.
[5]钱纳里,赛尔昆.发展的格局[M].北京:中国财政经济出版社,1989:56.
[6]汪川.工业化、城镇化与经济增长:孰为因孰为果[J].财贸经济,2017,38(9):111-128.
[7]李国平.我国工业化与城镇化的协调关系分析与评估[J].地域研究与开发,2008,(5):6-16.
[8]刘奇中.工业化城镇化互动协调发展研究——以安徽省为例[J].华东经济管理,2013,(2):13-17.
[9]夏显力,郝晶辉.陕西省工业化、城镇化与农业现代化互动关系的实证研究[J].华中农业大学学报,2013,(1):19-24.
[10]姜会明,王振华.吉林省工业化、城镇化与农业现代化关系实证分析[J].地理科学,2012,(5):591-595.
[11]王大为,崔海兴,阮荣平,郑凤田.北京市城镇化与工业化关系:滞后、超前抑或协调[J].区域经济评论,2015,(2):26-34.
[12]郭进,徐盈之.城镇化与工业化协调发展:现实基础与水平测度[J].经济评论,2016,(4):39-49.
[13]李刚,魏佩瑶.中国工业化与城镇化协调关系研究[J].经济问题探索,2013,(5):72-79.
[14]苏发金.工业化、城镇化与农业现代化互动关系实证研究[J].大连理工大学学报,2012,(3):45-50.
[15]孙长青.基于VAR模型的城镇化、工业化与金融发展关系分析——以中原经济区为例[J].经济经纬,2012,(6):17-21.
[16]吴浜源,王亮.城镇化、工业化与城乡收入差距[J].经济问题探索,2014,(5):7-12.
[17]Sabyasachi Tripathi,Shupinder Kaur. Do Negative Externalities have any Impact on Population Agglomerations? Evi-dence from Urban India[D]. MPRA Paper,2017.
[18]周玉龙,孙久文.产业发展从人口集聚中受益了吗?——基于2005-2011年城市面板数据的经验研究[J].中国经济问题,2015,(2):74-85.
[19]陈江龙,高金龙,卫云龙.工业化、城镇化和农业现代化“三化融合”的内涵与机制——以江苏省为例[J].农业现代化研究,2013,(3):274-278.
[20]Berlianta,Marcus,Konishi. The Endogenous Formation of a City:Population Agglomeration and Marketplaces in a Location-Specific Production Economy[J]. Regional Science and Urban Economics,2000,30(3):289-324.
[21]王胜今,王智初.中国人口集聚与经济集聚的空间一致性研究[J].人口学刊,2017,(6):43-50.
[22]许庆明,胡晨光,刘道学.城市群人口集聚梯度与产业结构优化升级——中国长三角地区与日本、韩国的比较[J].中国人口科学,2015,(1):29-37.
[23]陆铭,陈钊.城市化、城市倾向的经济政策与城乡收入差距[J].经济研究,2004,(6):50-58.
[24]Holtz-Eakin,Newey W. Estimating Vector Autoregressions with Panel Data[J]. Econometrica:Journal of the Economet-ric Society,1988,56(6):1371-1395.
[25]Love I,Zicchino L. Financial Development and Dynamic Investment Behavior:Evidence from Panel VAR[J]. The Quar-terly Review of Economics and Finance,2006,46(2):190-210.
(1)2016年12月国家发改委对东北地区人口变动的相关说明。
(1)城市化指标用非农人口占总人口的比重来衡量。
(2)工业化指标用第二产业产值占GDP的比重来衡量。
[2]秦尊文.论城市规模政策与城市规模效益[J].经济问题,2003,(10):1-3.
[3]樊纲,郭方达.中国城市化和特大城市问题再思考[M].北京:中国经济出版社,2017.
[4]叶裕民.工业化弱质:中国城市化发展的经济障碍[J].中国人民大学学报,2002,(2):73-79.
[5]钱纳里,赛尔昆.发展的格局[M].北京:中国财政经济出版社,1989:56.
[6]汪川.工业化、城镇化与经济增长:孰为因孰为果[J].财贸经济,2017,38(9):111-128.
[7]李国平.我国工业化与城镇化的协调关系分析与评估[J].地域研究与开发,2008,(5):6-16.
[8]刘奇中.工业化城镇化互动协调发展研究——以安徽省为例[J].华东经济管理,2013,(2):13-17.
[9]夏显力,郝晶辉.陕西省工业化、城镇化与农业现代化互动关系的实证研究[J].华中农业大学学报,2013,(1):19-24.
[10]姜会明,王振华.吉林省工业化、城镇化与农业现代化关系实证分析[J].地理科学,2012,(5):591-595.
[11]王大为,崔海兴,阮荣平,郑凤田.北京市城镇化与工业化关系:滞后、超前抑或协调[J].区域经济评论,2015,(2):26-34.
[12]郭进,徐盈之.城镇化与工业化协调发展:现实基础与水平测度[J].经济评论,2016,(4):39-49.
[13]李刚,魏佩瑶.中国工业化与城镇化协调关系研究[J].经济问题探索,2013,(5):72-79.
[14]苏发金.工业化、城镇化与农业现代化互动关系实证研究[J].大连理工大学学报,2012,(3):45-50.
[15]孙长青.基于VAR模型的城镇化、工业化与金融发展关系分析——以中原经济区为例[J].经济经纬,2012,(6):17-21.
[16]吴浜源,王亮.城镇化、工业化与城乡收入差距[J].经济问题探索,2014,(5):7-12.
[17]Sabyasachi Tripathi,Shupinder Kaur. Do Negative Externalities have any Impact on Population Agglomerations? Evi-dence from Urban India[D]. MPRA Paper,2017.
[18]周玉龙,孙久文.产业发展从人口集聚中受益了吗?——基于2005-2011年城市面板数据的经验研究[J].中国经济问题,2015,(2):74-85.
[19]陈江龙,高金龙,卫云龙.工业化、城镇化和农业现代化“三化融合”的内涵与机制——以江苏省为例[J].农业现代化研究,2013,(3):274-278.
[20]Berlianta,Marcus,Konishi. The Endogenous Formation of a City:Population Agglomeration and Marketplaces in a Location-Specific Production Economy[J]. Regional Science and Urban Economics,2000,30(3):289-324.
[21]王胜今,王智初.中国人口集聚与经济集聚的空间一致性研究[J].人口学刊,2017,(6):43-50.
[22]许庆明,胡晨光,刘道学.城市群人口集聚梯度与产业结构优化升级——中国长三角地区与日本、韩国的比较[J].中国人口科学,2015,(1):29-37.
[23]陆铭,陈钊.城市化、城市倾向的经济政策与城乡收入差距[J].经济研究,2004,(6):50-58.
[24]Holtz-Eakin,Newey W. Estimating Vector Autoregressions with Panel Data[J]. Econometrica:Journal of the Economet-ric Society,1988,56(6):1371-1395.
[25]Love I,Zicchino L. Financial Development and Dynamic Investment Behavior:Evidence from Panel VAR[J]. The Quar-terly Review of Economics and Finance,2006,46(2):190-210.
(1)2016年12月国家发改委对东北地区人口变动的相关说明。
(1)城市化指标用非农人口占总人口的比重来衡量。
(2)工业化指标用第二产业产值占GDP的比重来衡量。
© 2004-2018 中国地质图书馆版权所有 京ICP备05064691号 京公网安备11010802017129号 地址：北京市海淀区学院路29号 邮编：100083 电话：办公室：(+86 10)66554848；文献借阅、咨询服务、科技查新：66554700 |