概率地震危险性分析、分解与设定地震及其在西安地区的应用
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摘要
本文以Arc GIS为平台,以西安地区为研究对象,以西安地震局提供的信息为依托,给出西安地区的潜在震源区划分以及地震活动性参数,根据随机有限断层模拟得到西安地区地震动强度预测模型,基于离散算法平台,以潜在震源区为基本单位,将潜在震源区离散成栅格并看成点源,分别计算每个栅格对场地的地震动超越概率,即概率地震危险性分析。在此基础上进行概率地震危险性分解去确定某一最可能造成所需危险水平下的地震动强度参数的贡献率,最后根据加权方法确定设定地震。研究结果表明:在0. 2 s、1. 0 s和2. 4 s这3个周期的谱加速度值,相同危险性水平下,对场地贡献较大的潜在震源基本相同,但是各潜在震源的相对贡献率依然有差别;对于不同的危险性水平,对场地贡献较大的潜在震源区的数目区别很大,但基本都是靠近场地附近的几个潜在震源,且比较集中。
Xi'an region was the study objects based on Arc GIS engine platform and the information of the Xi'an seismological bureau,the division of the potential seismic source zones and the seismic activity parameters were adopted,according the stochastic finite fault to obtain the ground motion prediction models,taking the discretization algorithm and choosing potential seismic source zones as the basic unit,dividing the potential seismic source zones into grids which are viewed as point sources and the corresponding exceeding probabilities are calculated,that is probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. On the basis of the deaggregation of probabilistic seismic hazard to define the most dangerous levels corresponding the contribution rate of the ground motion intensity measures,according theweighted method to determine the scenario earthquakes. The results show that,the spectrum of acceleration for the three basic periods at 0. 2 s,1. 0 s,and 2. 4 s,for the same hazard levels,the potential seismic source zones are roughly the same for the site of the larger contribution,but the relative contribution rates have still difference; For the different hazard levels,the potential seismic source zones are difference for the site of the larger contribution,but several potential seismic source zones are close to the site,and more concentrated.
Xi'an region was the study objects based on Arc GIS engine platform and the information of the Xi'an seismological bureau,the division of the potential seismic source zones and the seismic activity parameters were adopted,according the stochastic finite fault to obtain the ground motion prediction models,taking the discretization algorithm and choosing potential seismic source zones as the basic unit,dividing the potential seismic source zones into grids which are viewed as point sources and the corresponding exceeding probabilities are calculated,that is probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. On the basis of the deaggregation of probabilistic seismic hazard to define the most dangerous levels corresponding the contribution rate of the ground motion intensity measures,according theweighted method to determine the scenario earthquakes. The results show that,the spectrum of acceleration for the three basic periods at 0. 2 s,1. 0 s,and 2. 4 s,for the same hazard levels,the potential seismic source zones are roughly the same for the site of the larger contribution,but the relative contribution rates have still difference; For the different hazard levels,the potential seismic source zones are difference for the site of the larger contribution,but several potential seismic source zones are close to the site,and more concentrated.
引文
[1]高孟潭.《中国地震动参数区划图》宣贯教材(GB 18306-2015)[M].北京:中国标准出版社,中国质检出版社,2015.GAO Mentan. Chinese ground motion intenstity measures zoning map publicity materials(GB18306-2015)[M]. Beijing:Standards Press of China Zhijian Publishing House,2015.(in Chinese)
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[5]潘华,高孟潭,李金臣.新版美国地震区划图源及其参数模型的分析与评述[J].震灾防御技术,2009,4(2):131-140.PAN Hua,GAO Mengtan,LI Jinchen. Comments on the models of seismic source and parameters used in the new edition of united states national seismic hazard maps[J]. Technology for Earthquake Disaster Prevention,2009,4(2):131-140.(in Chinese)
[6] Bazzurro P,Cornell C A. Disaggregation of seismic hazard[J]. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,1999,89(2):501-520.
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[8]李思雨.基于目标谱的西安地区地震动选择与调幅[D].哈尔滨:哈尔滨工业大学,2016.LI Siyu. Selection and scaling of ground motion records based on target spectra in Xi'an region[D]. Harbin:Harbin Institute of Technology,2016.(in Chinese)
[9]国家地震局区划图编委会和编图办公室.新的中国地震烈度区划图(1990)简介[J].国际地震动态,1992(6):21-24.The compiling office and the board for compiling zoning maps,SSB. A brief introduction to the new Chinese seismic intensity zoning map(1990)[J]. Recent Developments in World Seismology,1992(6):21-24.(in Chinese)
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[11]徐丹丹,荣棉水,吕悦军.设定地震研究综述[C]∥地壳构造与地壳应力文集,2012:89-96.XU Dandan,RONG Mianshui,LYuejun. Review on study of scenario earthquake[C]∥Bulletin of the Institute of Crustal Dynamics,2012:89-96.(in Chinese)
[12]高孟潭.潜在震源区期望震级和期望距离及其计算方法[J].地震学报,1994,16(3):346-351.GAO Mengtan. Expected magnitude and expected distance of potential seismic source zones and its calculation methed[J]. Acta Secsmologica Sintca,1994,16(3):346-351.(in Chinese)
[13] Mc Guire R K. Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis and design earthquakes:closing the loop[J]. Bulletin of the Society of America,1995,5(85):1275-1284.
[14] Ishikawa Y,Kameda H. Hazard-consistent magnitude and distance for extended seismic risk analysis[C]∥Proc. of 9th Wold Conference on Earthqgak Engineering Tokyo,Kyoto,1988:89-94.
[15]周本刚,陈国星,高战武,等.新地震区划图潜在震源区划分的主要技术特色[J].震灾防御技术,2013,8(2):113-124.ZHOU Bengang,CHEN Guoxing,GAO Zhanwu,et al. The technical highlights in identifying the potential seismic sources for the update of national seismic zoning map of China[J]. Technology for Earthquake Disaster Prevention,2013,8(2):113-124.(in Chinese)
[16]庞健.基于Arc GIS的西安地区地震危险性分析系统研究与开发[D].哈尔滨:哈尔滨工业大学,2015.PANG Jian. Research and development of seismic hazard analysis system for Xi'an region based on Arc GIS[D]. Harbin:Harbin Institute of Technology,2015.(in Chinese)
[17]西安大地地震工程勘察中心.西安市地震小区划项目技术报告西安[R].西安:西安市地震局,2011.Xi'an Earthquake Engineering Investigation Center. Project technology rrport of Xi'an earthquak division scope[R]. Xi'an:Xi'an Earthquake Bureau,2011.(in Chinese)
[18]胡聿贤,张敏政.缺乏强震观测资料地区地震动参数的估计方法[J].地震工程与工程振动,1984,4(1):1-11.HU Yuxian,ZHANG. Minzheng. A method of prediciting ground motion parameters for regions with poor ground motion data[J]. Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Dynamics,1984,4(1):1-11.(in Chinese)
[19]肖亮,俞言祥.一种新的拟合地震动衰减关系的分布回归方法[J].地震学报,2010,32(6):725-732.XIAO Liang,YU Yanxiang. A new ste-regression approach for fitting ground motion data with attenuation relation[J]. Acta Seismologica Sinica[J]. 2010,32(6):725-732.(in Chinese)
[20]吴健.设定地震确定方法研究[J].国际地震动态,2014,(2):41-43.WU Jian. The study on determination method of scenario earthquake[J]. Recent Developments in World Seismology,2014,(2):41-43.(in Chinese)
[21]贾晓琳.基于随机有限断层模型的西安地区概率地震危险性分析[D].哈尔滨:哈尔滨工业大学,2016.JIA Xiaolin. Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for Xi'an region based on stochastic finite fault model[D]. Harbin:Harbin Institute of Technology,2016.(in Chinese)
[2] Cornell C A. Engineering seismic risk analysis[J]. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,1968,58(6):1583-1606.
[3] Sucuoˇglu H,Akkar S. Basic earthquake engineering[M]. Springer International Publishing,2014.
[4]高孟潭,卢寿德.关于下一代地震区划图编制原则与关键技术的初步探讨[J].震灾防御技术,2006,1(1):1-6.GAO Mengtan,LU Shoude. The discussion on principles of seismic zonation of the next generation[J]. Technology for Earthquake Disaster Prevention,2006,1(1):1-6.(in Chinese)
[5]潘华,高孟潭,李金臣.新版美国地震区划图源及其参数模型的分析与评述[J].震灾防御技术,2009,4(2):131-140.PAN Hua,GAO Mengtan,LI Jinchen. Comments on the models of seismic source and parameters used in the new edition of united states national seismic hazard maps[J]. Technology for Earthquake Disaster Prevention,2009,4(2):131-140.(in Chinese)
[6] Bazzurro P,Cornell C A. Disaggregation of seismic hazard[J]. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,1999,89(2):501-520.
[7] Ishikawa Y,Kameda H. Probabilistic-based Determinination of Specific Senario Earthquakes[C]∥4th International Conference on Seismic Zonation,1991.
[8]李思雨.基于目标谱的西安地区地震动选择与调幅[D].哈尔滨:哈尔滨工业大学,2016.LI Siyu. Selection and scaling of ground motion records based on target spectra in Xi'an region[D]. Harbin:Harbin Institute of Technology,2016.(in Chinese)
[9]国家地震局区划图编委会和编图办公室.新的中国地震烈度区划图(1990)简介[J].国际地震动态,1992(6):21-24.The compiling office and the board for compiling zoning maps,SSB. A brief introduction to the new Chinese seismic intensity zoning map(1990)[J]. Recent Developments in World Seismology,1992(6):21-24.(in Chinese)
[10]徐丹丹,吕悦军,陈阳,等.基于不同设定地震方法的长周期建筑设计反应谱的对比分析[J].震灾防御技术,2013,8(3):244-251.XU Dandan,LYuejun,CHEN Yang,et al. Comparison of design response spectrum for long period structures based on scenario earthquake[J]. Technology for Earthquake Disaster Prevention,2013,8(3):244-251.(in Chinese)
[11]徐丹丹,荣棉水,吕悦军.设定地震研究综述[C]∥地壳构造与地壳应力文集,2012:89-96.XU Dandan,RONG Mianshui,LYuejun. Review on study of scenario earthquake[C]∥Bulletin of the Institute of Crustal Dynamics,2012:89-96.(in Chinese)
[12]高孟潭.潜在震源区期望震级和期望距离及其计算方法[J].地震学报,1994,16(3):346-351.GAO Mengtan. Expected magnitude and expected distance of potential seismic source zones and its calculation methed[J]. Acta Secsmologica Sintca,1994,16(3):346-351.(in Chinese)
[13] Mc Guire R K. Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis and design earthquakes:closing the loop[J]. Bulletin of the Society of America,1995,5(85):1275-1284.
[14] Ishikawa Y,Kameda H. Hazard-consistent magnitude and distance for extended seismic risk analysis[C]∥Proc. of 9th Wold Conference on Earthqgak Engineering Tokyo,Kyoto,1988:89-94.
[15]周本刚,陈国星,高战武,等.新地震区划图潜在震源区划分的主要技术特色[J].震灾防御技术,2013,8(2):113-124.ZHOU Bengang,CHEN Guoxing,GAO Zhanwu,et al. The technical highlights in identifying the potential seismic sources for the update of national seismic zoning map of China[J]. Technology for Earthquake Disaster Prevention,2013,8(2):113-124.(in Chinese)
[16]庞健.基于Arc GIS的西安地区地震危险性分析系统研究与开发[D].哈尔滨:哈尔滨工业大学,2015.PANG Jian. Research and development of seismic hazard analysis system for Xi'an region based on Arc GIS[D]. Harbin:Harbin Institute of Technology,2015.(in Chinese)
[17]西安大地地震工程勘察中心.西安市地震小区划项目技术报告西安[R].西安:西安市地震局,2011.Xi'an Earthquake Engineering Investigation Center. Project technology rrport of Xi'an earthquak division scope[R]. Xi'an:Xi'an Earthquake Bureau,2011.(in Chinese)
[18]胡聿贤,张敏政.缺乏强震观测资料地区地震动参数的估计方法[J].地震工程与工程振动,1984,4(1):1-11.HU Yuxian,ZHANG. Minzheng. A method of prediciting ground motion parameters for regions with poor ground motion data[J]. Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Dynamics,1984,4(1):1-11.(in Chinese)
[19]肖亮,俞言祥.一种新的拟合地震动衰减关系的分布回归方法[J].地震学报,2010,32(6):725-732.XIAO Liang,YU Yanxiang. A new ste-regression approach for fitting ground motion data with attenuation relation[J]. Acta Seismologica Sinica[J]. 2010,32(6):725-732.(in Chinese)
[20]吴健.设定地震确定方法研究[J].国际地震动态,2014,(2):41-43.WU Jian. The study on determination method of scenario earthquake[J]. Recent Developments in World Seismology,2014,(2):41-43.(in Chinese)
[21]贾晓琳.基于随机有限断层模型的西安地区概率地震危险性分析[D].哈尔滨:哈尔滨工业大学,2016.JIA Xiaolin. Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for Xi'an region based on stochastic finite fault model[D]. Harbin:Harbin Institute of Technology,2016.(in Chinese)
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