南水北调中线大型跨(穿)河建筑物综合风险评价
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摘要
该文基于南水北调中线工程大型跨(穿)河建筑物的设计和建设质量信息,考虑不同类型建筑物的个性信息和外部条件,包括施工质量,建筑物自身的特征参数以及周边水文、地质的主要控制性参数等,构建了合理的指标体系,建立了包括静态风险和动态风险在内的综合风险评价体系,对大型跨(穿)河建筑物运行潜在的风险进行分类分级。其中静态风险通过神经网络计算得到,动态风险考虑了对洪水、冰冻、冲刷和拉应力的评估,最后综合风险指数通过与文献中结果对比得到验证,并通过案例计算进一步评价了方法的合理性。
An integrated static and dynamic risk evaluation system was developed to classify the potential risks of large river-crossing buildings over the South-to-North Water Diversion Project.The system constructs an index based on design and construction quality information,the characteristics of different types of buildings and external conditions including the hydrology and geology.The static risk is given by a neural network model while the dynamic risk is related to flood,freezing,flushing and tensile stress conditions.The integrated risk index compares well with results in the literature with good results given in a case study.
An integrated static and dynamic risk evaluation system was developed to classify the potential risks of large river-crossing buildings over the South-to-North Water Diversion Project.The system constructs an index based on design and construction quality information,the characteristics of different types of buildings and external conditions including the hydrology and geology.The static risk is given by a neural network model while the dynamic risk is related to flood,freezing,flushing and tensile stress conditions.The integrated risk index compares well with results in the literature with good results given in a case study.
引文
[1]刘恒,宋轩,耿雷华,等.南水北调中线交叉建筑物洪水风险估算模型研究[J].人民长江,2010,41(8):74-77,99.LIU H,SONG X,GENG L H,et al.Research on flood risk estimation model of cross structures in Middle Route Project of South-North Water Diversion[J].Yangtze River,2010,41(8):74-77,99.(in Chinese)
[2]刘涛,邵东国,顾文权.基于层次分析法的供水风险综合评价模型[J].武汉大学学报(工学版),2006,39(4):25-28.LIU T,SHAO D G,GU W Q.Risk comprehensive evaluation of water supply in middle and lower reaches of Hanjiang River after implementation of Middle Route of South-to-North Water Diversion[J].Engineering Journal of Wuhan University,2006,39(4):25-28.(in Chinese)
[3]梁忠民.南水北调中线工程供水量风险分析[J].河海大学学报,2001,29(5):49-53.LIANG Z M.Risk analysis on water supply quantity for Middle-line of South-North Water Transfer Project[J].Journal of Hohai University,2001,29(5):49-53.(in Chinese)
[4]李芬.南水北调中线冰情综合分析平台研究[D].大连:大连理工大学,2016.LI F.Research of comprehensive analysis platform for the Middle Route of Southe-to-North Water Transfer Project during freezing period[D].Dalian:Dalian University of Technology,2016.(in Chinese)
[5]许新宜,尹宏伟,姚建文.南水北调东线治污及其输水水质风险分析[J].水资源保护,2004(2):1-2,8.XU X Y,YIN H W,YAO J W.Pollution remediation along east route of South-to-North Water Transfer Project and risk analysis of quality of water conveyance[J].Water Resources Protection,2004(2):1-2,8.(in Chinese)
[6]肖伟华,庞莹莹,张连会,等.南水北调东线工程突发性水环境风险管理研究[J].南水北调与水利科技,2010,8(5):17-21.XIAO W H,PANG Y Y,ZHANG L H,et al.Study on the emergency water environmental risk management during operating period in the Eastern Route of South-to-North Water Diversion[J].South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science&Technology,2010,8(5):17-21.(in Chinese)
[7]贾超,刘宁,陈进,等.南水北调中线工程渡槽结构风险分析[J].水力发电,2003,29(7):23-27.JIA C,LIU N,CHEN J,et al.Risk analysis for aqueduct structure of the South-North Water Transfer Project(Central Route)[J].Water Power,2003,29(7):23-27.(in Chinese)
[8]朱元甡,韩国宏,王汝慈,等.南水北调中线工程交叉建筑物水毁风险分析[J].水文,1995,15(3):1-7,65.ZHU Y S,HAN G H,WANG R C,et al.The risk analysis of flood damaging to the cross-structures on the main canal of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project[J].Journal of China Hydrology,1995,15(3):1-7,65.(in Chinese)
[9]SAATY T L.Analytic hierarchy process[M].New York:McGraw-Hill,1980:19-28.
[10]耿雷华,姜蓓蕾,刘恒,等.南水北调东中线运行工程风险管理研究[M].北京:中国环境科学出版社,2010.GENG L H,JIANG B L,LIU H,et al.Study on the operation risk management of East and Middle Line of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project[M].Beijing:China Environmental Science Press,2010.(in Chinese)
[11]郭鹏,施品贵.项目风险模糊灰色综合评价方法研究[J].西安理工大学学报,2005,21(1):106-109.GUO P,SHI P G.Research on fuzzy-grey comprehensive evaluation method of project risk[J].Journal of Xi'an University of Technology,2005,21(1):106-109.(in Chinese)
[12]赖成光,王兆礼,宋海娟.基于BP神经网络的北江流域洪灾风险评价[J].水电能源科学,2011,29(3):57-59,161.LAI C G,WANG Z L,SONG H J.Risk assessment of flood hazard in Beijiang river basin based on BP neural network[J].Water Resources and Power,2011,29(3):57-59,161.(in Chinese)
[13]李绍飞,余萍,孙书洪.基于神经网络的蓄滞洪区洪灾风险模糊综合评价[J].中国农村水利水电,2008(6):60-64.LI S F,YU P,SUN S H.Fuzzy risk assessment of flood hazard based on artificial neural network for detention basin[J].China Rural Water and Hydropower,2008(6):60-64.(in Chinese)
[14]宋轩,刘恒,耿雷华,等.南水北调中线工程交叉建筑物风险识别[J].南水北调与水利科技,2009,7(4):13-15.SONG X,LIU H,GENG L H,et al.Risk identification for crossing structures in the Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project[J].South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science&Technology,2009,7(4):13-15.(in Chinese)
[15]夏富洲.渡槽水毁及其它破坏的修复[J].人民长江,2000,31(3):17-19,50.XIA F Z.Repairing of aqueduct damage by water and other failures[J].Yangtze River,2000,31(3):17-19,50.(in Chinese)
[16]张劲松,徐云修.倒虹吸管的破坏分析及修补措施[J].中国农村水利水电,2000(3):6-8.ZHANG J S,XU Y X.Damage analysis and repair of inverted siphon[J].China Rural Water and Hydropower,2000(3):6-8.(in Chinese)
[17]中华人民共和国国家发展和改革委员会.水工建筑物止水带技术规范:DL/T 5215-2005[S].北京:中国电力出版社,2005.National Development and Reform Commission.Specification for waterstop of hydraulic structure:DL/T 5215-2005[S].Beijing:Electric Power Press of China,2005.(in Chinese)
[18]国家能源局.水工混凝土钢筋施工规范:DL/T 5169-2013[S].北京:中国电力出版社,2013.National Energy Administration.Specification for construction of hydraulic concrete reinforcement:DL/T5169-2013[S].Beijing:China Electric Power Press,2013.(in Chinese)
[19]中华人民共和国住房和城乡建设部,中华人民共和国国家质量监督检验检疫总局.防洪标准:GB 50201-2014[S].北京:中国标准出版社,2015.Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development of the People's Republic of China,General Administration of Quality Supervision,Inspection and Quarantine of the People's Republic of China.Standard for flood control:GB50201-2014[S].Beijing:Standards Press of China,2015.(in Chinese)
[20]中华人民共和国住房和城乡建设部.混凝土质量控制标准:GB 50164-2011[S].北京:中国建筑工业出版社,2012.Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development of the People's Republic of China.Standard foe quality control of concrete:GB 50164-2011[S].Beijing:China Architecture&Building Press,2012.(in Chinese)
[21]中华人民共和国住房和城乡建设部.建筑地基处理技术规范:JGJ 79-2012[S].北京:中国建筑工业出版社,2013.Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development of the People's Republic of China.Technical code for ground treatment of buildings:JGJ 79-2012[S].Beijing:China Architecture&Building Press,2013.(in Chinese)
[22]中华人民共和国水利部.水利水电工程施工质量检验与评定规程:SL 176-2007[S].北京:中国水利水电出版社,2007.The Ministry of Water Resources of the People's Republic of China.Inspection and assessment specification for construction quality of hydraulic and hydroelectric engineering:SL 176-2007[S].Beijing:China Water&Power Press,2007.(in Chinese)
[23]中华人民共和国水利部.水利水电工程等级划分及洪水标准:SL 252-2017[S].北京:中国水利水电出版社,2017.The Ministry of Water Resources of the People's Republic of China.Standard for rank classification and flood protection criteria of water and hydropower projects:SL 252-2017[S].Beijing:China Water&Power Press,2017.(in Chinese)
[24]中华人民共和国水利部.灌溉与排水渠系建筑物设计规范:SL 482-2011[S].北京:中国水利水电出版社,2011.The Ministry of Water Resources of the People's Republic of China.Code for design of irrigation and drainage canal system structures:SL 482-2011[S].Beijing:China Water&Power Press,2011.(in Chinese)
[25]中华人民共和国交通部.公路工程水文勘测设计规范:JTG C30-2002[S].北京:人民交通出版社,2004.Ministry of Transport of the People's Republic of China.Hydrological specifications for survey and design of highway engineering:JTG C30-2002[S].Beijing:China Communications Press,2004.(in Chinese)
[26]中华人民共和国水利部.水工混凝土结构设计规范:SL191-2008[S].北京:中国水利水电出版社,2009.The Ministry of Water Resources of the People's Republic of China.Design code for hydraulic concrete structures:SL191-2008[S].Beijing:China Water&Power Press,2009.(in Chinese)
[27]OLSEN J R,STEDINGER J R,MATALAS N C,et al.Climate variability and flood frequency estimation for the upper mississippi and lower missouri rivers[J].Journal of the American Water Resources Association,1999,35(6):1509-1523.
[28]TUNG Y K.Models for evaluating flow conveyance reliability of hydraulic structures[J].Water Resources Research,1985,21(10):1463-1468.
[29]TUNG Y K.Risk-based design of flood defense systems[C]//Proceedings of the 2nd International Symposium on Flood Defense.Beijing,China:Tsinghua University,2002.
[2]刘涛,邵东国,顾文权.基于层次分析法的供水风险综合评价模型[J].武汉大学学报(工学版),2006,39(4):25-28.LIU T,SHAO D G,GU W Q.Risk comprehensive evaluation of water supply in middle and lower reaches of Hanjiang River after implementation of Middle Route of South-to-North Water Diversion[J].Engineering Journal of Wuhan University,2006,39(4):25-28.(in Chinese)
[3]梁忠民.南水北调中线工程供水量风险分析[J].河海大学学报,2001,29(5):49-53.LIANG Z M.Risk analysis on water supply quantity for Middle-line of South-North Water Transfer Project[J].Journal of Hohai University,2001,29(5):49-53.(in Chinese)
[4]李芬.南水北调中线冰情综合分析平台研究[D].大连:大连理工大学,2016.LI F.Research of comprehensive analysis platform for the Middle Route of Southe-to-North Water Transfer Project during freezing period[D].Dalian:Dalian University of Technology,2016.(in Chinese)
[5]许新宜,尹宏伟,姚建文.南水北调东线治污及其输水水质风险分析[J].水资源保护,2004(2):1-2,8.XU X Y,YIN H W,YAO J W.Pollution remediation along east route of South-to-North Water Transfer Project and risk analysis of quality of water conveyance[J].Water Resources Protection,2004(2):1-2,8.(in Chinese)
[6]肖伟华,庞莹莹,张连会,等.南水北调东线工程突发性水环境风险管理研究[J].南水北调与水利科技,2010,8(5):17-21.XIAO W H,PANG Y Y,ZHANG L H,et al.Study on the emergency water environmental risk management during operating period in the Eastern Route of South-to-North Water Diversion[J].South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science&Technology,2010,8(5):17-21.(in Chinese)
[7]贾超,刘宁,陈进,等.南水北调中线工程渡槽结构风险分析[J].水力发电,2003,29(7):23-27.JIA C,LIU N,CHEN J,et al.Risk analysis for aqueduct structure of the South-North Water Transfer Project(Central Route)[J].Water Power,2003,29(7):23-27.(in Chinese)
[8]朱元甡,韩国宏,王汝慈,等.南水北调中线工程交叉建筑物水毁风险分析[J].水文,1995,15(3):1-7,65.ZHU Y S,HAN G H,WANG R C,et al.The risk analysis of flood damaging to the cross-structures on the main canal of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project[J].Journal of China Hydrology,1995,15(3):1-7,65.(in Chinese)
[9]SAATY T L.Analytic hierarchy process[M].New York:McGraw-Hill,1980:19-28.
[10]耿雷华,姜蓓蕾,刘恒,等.南水北调东中线运行工程风险管理研究[M].北京:中国环境科学出版社,2010.GENG L H,JIANG B L,LIU H,et al.Study on the operation risk management of East and Middle Line of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project[M].Beijing:China Environmental Science Press,2010.(in Chinese)
[11]郭鹏,施品贵.项目风险模糊灰色综合评价方法研究[J].西安理工大学学报,2005,21(1):106-109.GUO P,SHI P G.Research on fuzzy-grey comprehensive evaluation method of project risk[J].Journal of Xi'an University of Technology,2005,21(1):106-109.(in Chinese)
[12]赖成光,王兆礼,宋海娟.基于BP神经网络的北江流域洪灾风险评价[J].水电能源科学,2011,29(3):57-59,161.LAI C G,WANG Z L,SONG H J.Risk assessment of flood hazard in Beijiang river basin based on BP neural network[J].Water Resources and Power,2011,29(3):57-59,161.(in Chinese)
[13]李绍飞,余萍,孙书洪.基于神经网络的蓄滞洪区洪灾风险模糊综合评价[J].中国农村水利水电,2008(6):60-64.LI S F,YU P,SUN S H.Fuzzy risk assessment of flood hazard based on artificial neural network for detention basin[J].China Rural Water and Hydropower,2008(6):60-64.(in Chinese)
[14]宋轩,刘恒,耿雷华,等.南水北调中线工程交叉建筑物风险识别[J].南水北调与水利科技,2009,7(4):13-15.SONG X,LIU H,GENG L H,et al.Risk identification for crossing structures in the Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project[J].South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science&Technology,2009,7(4):13-15.(in Chinese)
[15]夏富洲.渡槽水毁及其它破坏的修复[J].人民长江,2000,31(3):17-19,50.XIA F Z.Repairing of aqueduct damage by water and other failures[J].Yangtze River,2000,31(3):17-19,50.(in Chinese)
[16]张劲松,徐云修.倒虹吸管的破坏分析及修补措施[J].中国农村水利水电,2000(3):6-8.ZHANG J S,XU Y X.Damage analysis and repair of inverted siphon[J].China Rural Water and Hydropower,2000(3):6-8.(in Chinese)
[17]中华人民共和国国家发展和改革委员会.水工建筑物止水带技术规范:DL/T 5215-2005[S].北京:中国电力出版社,2005.National Development and Reform Commission.Specification for waterstop of hydraulic structure:DL/T 5215-2005[S].Beijing:Electric Power Press of China,2005.(in Chinese)
[18]国家能源局.水工混凝土钢筋施工规范:DL/T 5169-2013[S].北京:中国电力出版社,2013.National Energy Administration.Specification for construction of hydraulic concrete reinforcement:DL/T5169-2013[S].Beijing:China Electric Power Press,2013.(in Chinese)
[19]中华人民共和国住房和城乡建设部,中华人民共和国国家质量监督检验检疫总局.防洪标准:GB 50201-2014[S].北京:中国标准出版社,2015.Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development of the People's Republic of China,General Administration of Quality Supervision,Inspection and Quarantine of the People's Republic of China.Standard for flood control:GB50201-2014[S].Beijing:Standards Press of China,2015.(in Chinese)
[20]中华人民共和国住房和城乡建设部.混凝土质量控制标准:GB 50164-2011[S].北京:中国建筑工业出版社,2012.Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development of the People's Republic of China.Standard foe quality control of concrete:GB 50164-2011[S].Beijing:China Architecture&Building Press,2012.(in Chinese)
[21]中华人民共和国住房和城乡建设部.建筑地基处理技术规范:JGJ 79-2012[S].北京:中国建筑工业出版社,2013.Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development of the People's Republic of China.Technical code for ground treatment of buildings:JGJ 79-2012[S].Beijing:China Architecture&Building Press,2013.(in Chinese)
[22]中华人民共和国水利部.水利水电工程施工质量检验与评定规程:SL 176-2007[S].北京:中国水利水电出版社,2007.The Ministry of Water Resources of the People's Republic of China.Inspection and assessment specification for construction quality of hydraulic and hydroelectric engineering:SL 176-2007[S].Beijing:China Water&Power Press,2007.(in Chinese)
[23]中华人民共和国水利部.水利水电工程等级划分及洪水标准:SL 252-2017[S].北京:中国水利水电出版社,2017.The Ministry of Water Resources of the People's Republic of China.Standard for rank classification and flood protection criteria of water and hydropower projects:SL 252-2017[S].Beijing:China Water&Power Press,2017.(in Chinese)
[24]中华人民共和国水利部.灌溉与排水渠系建筑物设计规范:SL 482-2011[S].北京:中国水利水电出版社,2011.The Ministry of Water Resources of the People's Republic of China.Code for design of irrigation and drainage canal system structures:SL 482-2011[S].Beijing:China Water&Power Press,2011.(in Chinese)
[25]中华人民共和国交通部.公路工程水文勘测设计规范:JTG C30-2002[S].北京:人民交通出版社,2004.Ministry of Transport of the People's Republic of China.Hydrological specifications for survey and design of highway engineering:JTG C30-2002[S].Beijing:China Communications Press,2004.(in Chinese)
[26]中华人民共和国水利部.水工混凝土结构设计规范:SL191-2008[S].北京:中国水利水电出版社,2009.The Ministry of Water Resources of the People's Republic of China.Design code for hydraulic concrete structures:SL191-2008[S].Beijing:China Water&Power Press,2009.(in Chinese)
[27]OLSEN J R,STEDINGER J R,MATALAS N C,et al.Climate variability and flood frequency estimation for the upper mississippi and lower missouri rivers[J].Journal of the American Water Resources Association,1999,35(6):1509-1523.
[28]TUNG Y K.Models for evaluating flow conveyance reliability of hydraulic structures[J].Water Resources Research,1985,21(10):1463-1468.
[29]TUNG Y K.Risk-based design of flood defense systems[C]//Proceedings of the 2nd International Symposium on Flood Defense.Beijing,China:Tsinghua University,2002.