1644—1911年广东省旱涝多时间尺度变化特征及影响因子分析
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摘要
建立清代1644—1911年广东的旱涝指数序列,采用滑动t检验、完备总体经验模态函数分析了清代广东旱涝的突变特征和多时间尺度周期性特征。结果表明,清代广东旱涝指数整体较平稳,呈现先明显增加后减少、后略微增加的趋势。旱涝指数序列具有多个跃变点,且有年际尺度4.2 a和7.8 a,年代际尺度11.6 a、15.2 a、36.5 a和70.1 a,世纪尺度130.3 a左右的周期。发现广东旱涝有多个周期与太阳黑子相对数序列及东亚季风指数序列周期接近,故用交叉小波分析发现广东旱涝指数序列与太阳黑子相对数序列在0~6 a、7~8 a和11~16 a等多个时间尺度具有强凝聚性共振周期,与东亚夏季风指数序列在4~8 a和25~45 a等多个时间尺度具有强凝聚性共振周期。
In view of global change and disaster increase, it is necessary to study the characteristics and influencing factors of climate disasters during the historical period. In this paper, the drought and flood index series of Guangdong from 1644—1911 was established. A sliding t-test was used to determine the mutation points and Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition was used to analyze the periodicity of the sequence on different timescales. Cross-wavelet analysis was used to explore the relative of sunspots and the East Asian summer monsoon with the change of drought and flood in Guangdong.The results show that the drought and flood index of Guangdong in the Qing Dynasty is generally stable, showing a marked increase, then a decrease, and then a slight increase.Drought and flood index sequence has multiple transition points and has interannual scale periods of 4.2 a and 7.8 a, interdecadal scale periods of 11.6 a,15.2 a, 36.5 a and 70.1 a and century scale period of about 130.3 a. It is found that the periods of drought and flood in Guangdong are close to those of sunspots and East Asian monsoon. So the influence of sunspots activity and East Asian summer monsoon on the variation of drought and flood in Guangdong was mainly discussed by cross-wavelet analysis. It is found that the sequence of drought and flood index in Guangdong has strong cohesive resonance periods at 0~6 a, 7~8 a, 11~16 a and other time scales with the sunspots relative number sequence, and also has strong cohesive resonance cycle with the sequence of the East Asian summer monsoon at multiple time scales such as 4~8 a and 25~45 a.
In view of global change and disaster increase, it is necessary to study the characteristics and influencing factors of climate disasters during the historical period. In this paper, the drought and flood index series of Guangdong from 1644—1911 was established. A sliding t-test was used to determine the mutation points and Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition was used to analyze the periodicity of the sequence on different timescales. Cross-wavelet analysis was used to explore the relative of sunspots and the East Asian summer monsoon with the change of drought and flood in Guangdong.The results show that the drought and flood index of Guangdong in the Qing Dynasty is generally stable, showing a marked increase, then a decrease, and then a slight increase.Drought and flood index sequence has multiple transition points and has interannual scale periods of 4.2 a and 7.8 a, interdecadal scale periods of 11.6 a,15.2 a, 36.5 a and 70.1 a and century scale period of about 130.3 a. It is found that the periods of drought and flood in Guangdong are close to those of sunspots and East Asian monsoon. So the influence of sunspots activity and East Asian summer monsoon on the variation of drought and flood in Guangdong was mainly discussed by cross-wavelet analysis. It is found that the sequence of drought and flood index in Guangdong has strong cohesive resonance periods at 0~6 a, 7~8 a, 11~16 a and other time scales with the sunspots relative number sequence, and also has strong cohesive resonance cycle with the sequence of the East Asian summer monsoon at multiple time scales such as 4~8 a and 25~45 a.
引文
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[10]李震坤,孙国武,信飞.2011年5、6月长江中下游旱涝转折的大气低频特征及其预报[J].热带气象学报,2014,30(1):194-200.
[11]童金,徐海明.长江中下游旱涝急转年多尺度低频振荡特征及其对旱涝急转的影响[J].热带气象学报,2014,30(4):707-718.
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[13]谢海林,巫春平.广州降水同太阳活动及ENSO的关系[J].企业科技与发展,2008(24):20-23.
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[18]李茜,魏凤英,李栋梁.近千年东亚夏季风演变[J].古地理学报,2012,14(2):253-260.
[19]郑景云,张圣远,周玉孚.利用早涝县次建立历史时期早涝指数序列的试验[J].地理研究,1993,1(8):1-9.
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[23]王姣,李振春,王德营.基于CEEMD的地震数据小波阈值去噪方法研究[J].石油勘探,2014,53(2):164-172.
[24]赵迎,乐友喜,黄健良,等.CEEMD与小波变换联合去噪方法研究[J].地球物理学进展,2015,30(6):2 870-2 887,doi:10.6038/pg20150655.
[25]余丹丹,张韧,洪梅基,等.基于交叉小波与小波相干的西太平洋副高与东亚夏季风系统的关联性分析[J].南京气象学院学报,2007,30(6):755-769.
[26]薛积彬,钟巍.1470年以来广东地区降水量的定量重建及其探讨[J].华南师范大学学报(自然科学版),2006(1):125-133.
[27]中国气象局气象科学研究院.中国近五百年旱涝分布图集[M].北京:地图出版社,1981.
[28]窦睿音,延军平.关中平原太阳黑子活动周期与旱涝灾害的相关性分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2013,27(8):76-82.
[29]王璐璐,延军平,韩晓敏.环渤海地区旱涝灾害与太阳黑子活动、ENSO关系的统计研究[J].中山大学学报(自然科学版),2016,55(1):123-130.
[30]CONRAD W,ASHISH S.Correction to“Effect of solar variability on atmospheric moisture storage”[J].Geophys Res Lett,2009,36(3):441-451.
[31]JAGER C D.Solar forcing of climate[J].Surv Geoph,2012,33(3/4):445-451.
[32]赵亮,徐影,王劲松.太阳活动对近百年气候变化的影响研究进展[J].气象科技进展,2011,1(4):37-48.
[33]葛全胜,刘路路,郑景云.过去千年太阳活动异常期的中国东部旱涝格局[J].地理学报,2016,71(5):707-717.
[34]徐群,金龙.太阳活动与北半球副热带高压强度的耦合振荡[J].大气科学,1986,10(2):204-211.
[35]LIU J,WANG B,CANE M A,et al.Divergent global precipitation changes induced by natural versus anthropogenic forcing[J].Nature,2013,493(7 434):656-659.
[36]张国宏,李智才,宋燕,等.中国降水量分布特征与东亚夏季风[J].干旱区地理,2011,34(1):34-42.
[37]汪靖,段丽瑶,何群英,等.海河流域盛汛期旱涝急转事件及其与大气环流异常的关系[J].热带气象学报,2016,32(4):515-523.
[38]郭其蕴,蔡静宁,邵雪梅,等.1873—2000年东亚季风变化的研究[J].大气科学,2004,28(2):206-215.
[39]黄燕玲,陈海山,蒋薇,等.东亚夏季风异常活动的多模态特征:不同再分析资料的比较分析[J].大气科学,2015,39(1):145-160.
[2]周书灿.20世纪中国历史气候研究述论[J].史学理论研究,2007(4):127-136.
[3]YI L,YU H J,XU X Y,et al.Exploratory precipitation in North-Central China during the past four centuries[J].Acta Geologica Sinica,2010,84(1):223-229.
[4]任朝霞,陆玉麒,杨达源.近2000年黑河流域旱涝变化研究[J].干旱区资源与环境,2009,23(4):90-93.
[5]TAN L C,CAI Y J,CHENG H,et al.Summer monsoon precipitation variations in central China over the past 750 years derived from a high-resolution absolute-dated stalagmite[J].Palaeogeogr Palaeoclimatol Palaeoecol,2009,280(3):432-439.
[6]李禧亮,毕硕本,魏军.清代江苏省干湿时空特征分析[J].地理与地理信息科学,2014,30(1):101-104.
[7]李红梅,范建忠,李星敏.陕西近500年极端干旱变化初步分析[J].陕西气象,2011(2):35-37.
[8]万金红,吕娟,刘和平.1470—2008年中国西北干旱地区旱涝变化特征分析[J].水科学进展,2014,25(5):625-631.
[9]张健,满志敏,肖微微,等.1644—2009年黄河中游旱涝序列重建与特征诊断[J].地理研究,2013,32(9):1 579-1 590.
[10]李震坤,孙国武,信飞.2011年5、6月长江中下游旱涝转折的大气低频特征及其预报[J].热带气象学报,2014,30(1):194-200.
[11]童金,徐海明.长江中下游旱涝急转年多尺度低频振荡特征及其对旱涝急转的影响[J].热带气象学报,2014,30(4):707-718.
[12]刘永林,延军平.广东省旱涝灾害时空变化特征研究[J].水土保持通报,2015,35(2):263-268.
[13]谢海林,巫春平.广州降水同太阳活动及ENSO的关系[J].企业科技与发展,2008(24):20-23.
[14]薛积彬,钟巍.历史时期广东地区旱涝灾害与气候变化关系[J].地理与地理信息科学,2005,21(5):75-79.
[15]薛积彬,钟巍.历史时期广东省旱涝变化及其层次分析[J].云南地理环境研究,2006,18(4):10-14.
[16]张德二.中国三千年气象记录总集[M].南京:凤凰出版社/江苏教育出版社,2004.
[17]温克刚.中国气象灾害大典[M].北京:气象出版社,2007.
[18]李茜,魏凤英,李栋梁.近千年东亚夏季风演变[J].古地理学报,2012,14(2):253-260.
[19]郑景云,张圣远,周玉孚.利用早涝县次建立历史时期早涝指数序列的试验[J].地理研究,1993,1(8):1-9.
[20]魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M].北京:气象出版社,1999.
[21]WU Z H,HUANG N E.Ensemble empirical mode decomposition:A noise assisted data analysis method[J].Adv Adapt Data Anal,2005(1):1-41.
[22]YEH J R,SHIEH J S,HUANG N E.Complementary ensemble empirical mode decomposition:a novel noise enhanced data analysis method[J].Adv Adapt Data Anal,2010,2(2):135-156.
[23]王姣,李振春,王德营.基于CEEMD的地震数据小波阈值去噪方法研究[J].石油勘探,2014,53(2):164-172.
[24]赵迎,乐友喜,黄健良,等.CEEMD与小波变换联合去噪方法研究[J].地球物理学进展,2015,30(6):2 870-2 887,doi:10.6038/pg20150655.
[25]余丹丹,张韧,洪梅基,等.基于交叉小波与小波相干的西太平洋副高与东亚夏季风系统的关联性分析[J].南京气象学院学报,2007,30(6):755-769.
[26]薛积彬,钟巍.1470年以来广东地区降水量的定量重建及其探讨[J].华南师范大学学报(自然科学版),2006(1):125-133.
[27]中国气象局气象科学研究院.中国近五百年旱涝分布图集[M].北京:地图出版社,1981.
[28]窦睿音,延军平.关中平原太阳黑子活动周期与旱涝灾害的相关性分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2013,27(8):76-82.
[29]王璐璐,延军平,韩晓敏.环渤海地区旱涝灾害与太阳黑子活动、ENSO关系的统计研究[J].中山大学学报(自然科学版),2016,55(1):123-130.
[30]CONRAD W,ASHISH S.Correction to“Effect of solar variability on atmospheric moisture storage”[J].Geophys Res Lett,2009,36(3):441-451.
[31]JAGER C D.Solar forcing of climate[J].Surv Geoph,2012,33(3/4):445-451.
[32]赵亮,徐影,王劲松.太阳活动对近百年气候变化的影响研究进展[J].气象科技进展,2011,1(4):37-48.
[33]葛全胜,刘路路,郑景云.过去千年太阳活动异常期的中国东部旱涝格局[J].地理学报,2016,71(5):707-717.
[34]徐群,金龙.太阳活动与北半球副热带高压强度的耦合振荡[J].大气科学,1986,10(2):204-211.
[35]LIU J,WANG B,CANE M A,et al.Divergent global precipitation changes induced by natural versus anthropogenic forcing[J].Nature,2013,493(7 434):656-659.
[36]张国宏,李智才,宋燕,等.中国降水量分布特征与东亚夏季风[J].干旱区地理,2011,34(1):34-42.
[37]汪靖,段丽瑶,何群英,等.海河流域盛汛期旱涝急转事件及其与大气环流异常的关系[J].热带气象学报,2016,32(4):515-523.
[38]郭其蕴,蔡静宁,邵雪梅,等.1873—2000年东亚季风变化的研究[J].大气科学,2004,28(2):206-215.
[39]黄燕玲,陈海山,蒋薇,等.东亚夏季风异常活动的多模态特征:不同再分析资料的比较分析[J].大气科学,2015,39(1):145-160.
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