Prediction model on Chinese annual live hog supply and its application

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• 作者：Xiaozhen Liang (1)
  Xiuli Liu (2)
  Fengmei Yang (3)
  
  1. School of Economics and Management ; Beihang University ; Beijing ; 100191 ; China
  2. Center For Forecasting Science ; Key Laboratory of Management ; Decision and Information Systems ; Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science ; Chinese Academy of Sciences ; Beijing ; 100190 ; China
  3. Faculty of Science ; Beijing University of Chemical Technology ; Beijing ; 100029 ; China
  
• 关键词：Annual supply prediction ; China ; econometric model ; live hog
• 刊名：Journal of Systems Science and Complexity
• 出版年：2015
• 出版时间：April 2015
• 年：2015
• 卷：28
• 期：2
• 页码：409-423
• 全文大小：355 KB
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• 刊物类别：Mathematics and Statistics
• 刊物主题：Systems Theory and Control
  Applied Mathematics and Computational Methods of Engineering
  Operations Research/Decision Theory
  Probability Theory and Stochastic Processes
  
• 出版者：Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, co-published with Springer
• ISSN：1559-7067

文摘

In this paper, a prediction model on Chinese annual live hog supply was established. With cointegration test, backward and forward stochastic selection and other methods, four main factors (hog price, prices of inputs in hog production, the level of hog inventory, as well as emergency and government policy) were chosen from 16 relevant factors to establish the model and make improvement. Applied the improved model, annual live hog supply in China from 2013 to 2016 was predicted in three scenarios. The predicted results showed that if there were no major emergencies from 2013 to 2016, there would be an upward trend in Chinese live hog supply year by year. The supply of live hogs in China in 2013 would be about 707.663 million head, in 2014 would be between 715.935 and 742.969 million head, in 2015 between 734.458 and 779.413 million head, and in 2016 between 750.923 and 809.450 million head.