Application of apparent stress in earthquake prediction

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• 作者：Hong-gui Liu (1) (2) (3)
  Pei-ling Wang (4)
  Cai-xia Yang (2)
  Ge Xu (2)
  Ye-jun Sun (2)
  Zhang-li Chen (3)
  Si-hua Zheng (3)
  
• 关键词：apparent stress ; predictability evaluation ; ω 2 model ; confidence level ; P315.75
• 刊名：Earthquake Science
• 出版年：2007
• 出版时间：July 2007
• 年：2007
• 卷：20
• 期：4
• 页码：467-476
• 全文大小：358KB
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• 作者单位：Hong-gui Liu (1) (2) (3)
  Pei-ling Wang (4)
  Cai-xia Yang (2)
  Ge Xu (2)
  Ye-jun Sun (2)
  Zhang-li Chen (3)
  Si-hua Zheng (3)
  
  1. Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing, 100081, China
  2. Earthquake Administration of Jiangsu Province, Nanjing, 210014, China
  3. Institute of Earthquake Science, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing, 100036, China
  4. Earthquake Administration of Qinghai Province, Xining, 810001, China
  
• ISSN：1867-8777

文摘

On the basis of the assumption that ω 2 model accords with source displacement spectra of moderate-small shocks, we calculate the apparent stress values of 1 020 moderate-small shocks recorded by the Digital Seismic Network of Yunnan Province by using the low-frequency flat level and corner frequencies. The results show that the apparent stress is of good significance in earthquake prediction. The moderate-small shock with apparent stress larger than 0.9 MPa can be used as a referential index to predict moderate-strong earthquakes in Yunnan area. And its relevant predictability evaluation (R value) has a high confidence level.