Why Research into Explosion Mechanisms of Flammable Cloud Is Still Necessary: Reducing Uncertainty Will Make Risk Assessment and Decision Making Stronger

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• 作者：Hans J. Pasman
• 刊名：Industrial & Engineering Chemistry Research
• 出版年：2012
• 出版时间：June 6, 2012
• 年：2012
• 卷：51
• 期：22
• 页码：7628-7635
• 全文大小：767K
• 年卷期：v.51,no.22(June 6, 2012)
• ISSN：1520-5045

文摘

Maintaining the process industry, including power plants, has become crucial to our way of life. The process industry, however, involves large quantities of hazardous substances that when spilt may present a threat to cause an explosion, a sustained fire, or a toxic cloud. These potential threats to life, structures, and the environment can be balanced by a variety of measures and ultimately by sufficient space. The central problem in spatial planning and licensing of plants containing substantial amounts of hazardous substances or planning transportation routes of these substances is to make decisions about safe distances in an environment of conflicting interests and large uncertainties, which are sometimes accompanied by emotions and 鈥渟trong鈥?perceptions. The uncertainties are due to incomplete knowledge about what can go wrong, how wrong it can go, and how likely it can go wrong. Improvements are sought in accordance with the International Risk Governance Council framework, learning from experiences elsewhere, maintaining robustness, but where required taking account of case specifics, including safety measures, improved models, and data and stakeholder outreach. Separate judgment of severity of consequences including injuries and other damage, and of likelihood categorized in probability classes accounts to some extent for uncertainty. Where possible the system of analysis shall be kept simple and affordable. Simplicity presumes, however, detailed knowledge of the mechanisms.