In Vivo Phycocyanin Flourometry as a Potential Rapid Screening Tool for Predicting Elevated Microcystin Concentrations at Eutrophic Lakes

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• 作者：Jason W. Marion ; Jiyoung Lee ; J. R. Wilkins ; III ; Stanley Lemeshow ; Cheonghoon Lee ; Evan J. Waletzko ; Timothy J. Buckley
• 刊名：Environmental Science & Technology (ES&T)
• 出版年：2012
• 出版时间：April 17, 2012
• 年：2012
• 卷：46
• 期：8
• 页码：4523-4531
• 全文大小：326K
• 年卷期：v.46,no.8(April 17, 2012)
• ISSN：1520-5851

文摘

Current approaches for assessing human health risks associated with cyanotoxins often rely on the quantification of microcystin. Significant limitations of current approaches are cost and time to obtain a result. To address these challenges, a numerical index for screening microcystin risks above the World Health Organization鈥檚 (WHO) low-risk threshold for microcystin was developed for eutrophic Midwestern U.S. lakes based on water quality results from 182 beach water samples collected from seven Ohio lakes. In 48 (26.4%) samples we observed microcystin concentrations as measured by ELISA that exceeded the 4 渭g/L microcystin threshold. A multivariable logistic regression model using practical real-time measures of in vivo phycocyanin (by fluorometry) and secchi depth was constructed to estimate the probability of a beach sample exceeding 4 渭g/L microcystin. The final model achieved statistical significance (p = 0.030) as well as good calibration (as measured by the goodness-of-fit test comparing observed to expected counts within deciles of risk based on the model, p = 0.329) and discrimination (as indicated by the area under the receiver-operator-curve (0.795)). These results demonstrate two rapid and practical measures of recreational water quality are effective in identifying 鈥渁t risk鈥?lake conditions warranting additional management (e.g., advisory and/or advanced testing).