• 责任者：Chen Yuhua (Earthquake Administration of Qinghai Province ; Xining 810001 ; China) ; Yao Jiajun
• 刊名：Earthquake Research in China
• 出版年：2013
• 卷期：29(4)
• 关键词：地震序列 ; seismic sequence ; 地震前兆 ; precursor ; 青海 ; Qinghai Province
• 页码：p.489-500
• 图表：5 illus., 3 tables, 12 refs.
• 分类号：0500
• issnNo：ISSN1001-4683
• isbnNo：CN11-2008/P

     Based on the data of Seismic Network of Qinghai Province,the paper analyzes the earthquake group activity and foreshock sequences in the Qinghai region,and with the help of the space-time relationship between the swarm activity and the strong earthquakes,checks the judgement index of the type of the precursory clustering earthquake.The results show that the increasing activity of ML ≥ 2.0 earthquake swarms in the Qinghai region is significant in medium term forecast for Ms ≥ 6.5 earthquakes and in space-time forecast for Ms ≥ 7.0 earthquakes.In order to determine the precursor earthquake swarms,we use any four of all combined modes which meet single index of the precursor earthquake swarms when calculating the 6 parameters of earthquake swarms.By calculating 34 parameters of earthquake swarms which the total frequency is more than 40,we can conclude that there are 24 precursory clustering earthquake which account for 71％ of the total.The corresponding strong earthquakes can happen after the precursory swarms,the same as some non-precursory earthquake swarms.80％ of the strong earthquakes after earthquake swarms are in the present seismotectonic zones.It plays an indicative role for the strong earthquake breeding regions.There were only a few earthquake cases with foreshock sequences in the Qinghai region.The only 3 earthquake cases studied can not make reliable indicators for foreshock sequences and has no significance for strong earthquake forecast.