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Short-Term and Medium-Term Prediction and Rheo-Tectonic Analysis for Nantou Earthquake (MS6.7)
详细信息   
摘要
This article reviews the successful short-term and medium-term earthquake predictions for the Nantou earthquake(MS6.7)and analyzes its tectonic background and occurring mechanism.According to the analysis of the solar activity taking the sunspot number as the main factor,Zeng Xiaoping and Lin Yunfang predicted that a MS7.0earthquake will occur in the Gaoxiong-Nantou-Hualian area of Taiwan in 2013in their article printed in April,2013.On May 12,2013,Shen Zongpi and Lin Mingzhou made a short-term and imminent prediction on the basis of the two-time method of magnetic storm related to lunar phase,that there would be a MS7.0-8.0big earthquake occurring along the earthquake zone including Taiwan and its adjacent waters in 5or 10days before or after June 19,2013.On May 26,2013,Zhang Jianguo informed some experts about his medium-term prediction for an earthquake,that the occurring time would be in the period between April 24,2013and February 10,2014(the high risk period would be in the fourth and fifth lunar month),that the earthquake area would be in Jiayi-Tainan-Nantou-Yunlin(23.0°-23.4°-24.0°N,120.0°-120.6°-121.2°E),and the magnitude would be MS6.2-6.6-7.2.On the basis of the analysis of the earthquake cloud,the correspondence between cloud and ground and the intersection point of magnetic anomalies,Wu Dabing predicted that there would be an earthquake with magnitude of ML6.2±0.4 occurring in Taiwan(24°±0.2°N,121°±0.2°E)before the midmonth of June,2013.On May 27,2013,Huang Jianwen raised the alarm that the stresses were concentrating in Nantou county of Taiwan.On May 29,he further raised the special alarm that intensive stresses were continuously concentrating.At 12:34of June 2,2013,aMS6.7(ML6.3)earthquake occurred in Nantou of Taiwan with the epicenter at(23.87°N,121.00°E)and the focus at the depth of 9km.It occurred in the short-term prediction period made by Wu Dabing,in the high risk period of the fourth and fifth month predicted by Zhang Jianguo,7days ahead of the short-term period predicted by ShenZongpi and Lin Mingzhou and dropped into the medium-term prediction period made by Zeng Xiaoping and Lin Yunfang,respectively.The epicenter corresponds with the predicted location of Wu Dabing,is basically the same with the intersection of the magnetic anomalies,and drops into the predicted region of Zhang Jianguo and of Zeng Xiaoping and Lin Yunfang.The magnitude corresponds with the prediction of Wu Dabing,drops into the predicted range of Zhang Jianguo,and approaches the value of Zeng Xiaoping and Lin Yunfang.We can see from the comparison above,that the short-term prediction of Wu Dabing,the medium-term prediction of Zeng Xiaoping and Lin Yunfang and of Zhang Jianguo are all successful and that the short-term prediction of Shen Zongpi and Lin Mingzhou is basically successful.The comprehensive analysis of the tectonic background,the focus mechanism solution and the satellite gravity anomalies of 2-638order indicate that the Quchi-Chaozhou fault is the triggering structure and that the Nantou earthquake resulted from the wedging of the Philippine plate into between the middle and lower crust of the Eurasian plate,causing the release of the energy accumulated at the intersection of the edge of the satellite gravity gradient zone or the crust density gradient zone and the westward thrust boundary fault between the Taiwan Central Mountain and the Taiwan strait basin.

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