Lushan Earthquake: A Successful Case for Medium-Term Prediction
详细信息
- 责任者：Zeng Zuoxun (Three Gorges Research Center for Geo-Hazard ; Ministry of Education ; China University of Geosciences ; Wuhan 430074 ; China) ; Wang Jie
- 刊名：Earth Science Frontiers
- 出版年：2013
- 卷期：20(3)
- 关键词：地震预测 ; earthquake prediction ; 大震 ; great earthquakes ; 青藏高原 ; Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau ; 龙门山断裂带 ; Longmenshan Fault Zone
- 页码：p.21-24
- 图表：illus., 12 refs.
- 分类号：0500
- issnNo：ISSN1005-2321
- isbnNo：CN11-3370/P
摘要
Lushan Earthquake(MS 7.0,April 20,2013) is another disastrous geological event along the Longmenshan earthquake fracture zone after 2008.This article reviews a successful medium-term prediction for the large Earthquake.It also gives the reason for the prediction of the epicenter.In the morning of November 25,2012,the Committee for Predicting Natural Disasters of Chinese Geophysical Society discussed the Medium-Term earthquake prediction for the southwest China.Qingguo Geng,the director of the committee reviewed his prediction presented in April,2012,that there would be a possible earthquake of MS 7.0 to MS 8.0 in the southwest China during the period of May,2012 through May,2013.Members attended the meeting agreed with the prediction time,but had different opinion in the location of the possible large earthquake in the southwest China.The first author made a presentation at the meeting.Zuoxun Zeng gave a definite location on his prediction map.It is located at the middle of the line linking Ya’an and Kangding,Sichuan Province.This prediction is made mainly according to two aspects.One is that two satellite local intense gravity anomalies with the same characteristics are appearing at the Wenchuan area and the west to Ya’an City,respectively.The other is that the Wenchuan earthquake only released the energy of the northeast part of the longmenshan fracture zone,this leads to the stress and energy concentration at the southwestern part of the fracture zone,especially at the southwestern end of the Longmenshan fracture zone with the abrupt gravity change,or abrupt change of density of the middle crust.The epicenter of Ya’an Earthquake(MS 7.0) is located at Lushan of Ya’an City,80 km from the predicated location.The origin time of the quake is before May of 2013.The successful medium-term prediction of the Lushan earthquake has given us a good deal of enlightenment: as a geological process,earthquake should have its own regularity.A successful earthquake prediction needs comprehensive analysis by using information from different observations.Just because of this,the main need now is a national or international expert group with comprehensive analysis experience and an efficient information platform for seismic precursor.The data processing and update for the satellite gravity will be helpful to narrowing the area of the possible large earthquakes.
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