This paper selected the upper Min River from Yingxiu to Wenchuan as study area, analyzed the changed formation conditions of debris flows and the damages of a typical debris flow barrier lake, and interpreted the loose solid materials from TM satellite images and aerial photographs. Then, the identification factors were selected and classified based on the factor independence analysis. At last, the fuzzy matter-element extension theory was used to construct a model to identify potential barrier lakes. The potential future increase in debris flow activity relates directly to the great increase in loose materials. Among the 17 potential debris flow gullies with high probabilities, 4 gullies already yielded barrier lakes during the 2008～2010 rainy seasons. The remaining debris flow gullies will produce barrier lakes in the future with high probability.