Extraction of Anomalous Earthquake Activity from the Haicheng Seismicity Window and Estimation of Prediction Ability
详细信息
- 责任者：Xue Ding (Seismological Bureau of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region ; Hohhot 010010 ; China) ; Zhang Jianye
- 刊名：Acta Seismologica Sinica
- 出版年：2012
- 卷期：34(4)
- 关键词：地震活动性 ; seismicity ; 地震构造 ; seismotectonics ; 辽宁 ; Liaoning Province
- 页码：p.487-493
- 图表：3 illus., 2 tables, 22 refs.
- 分类号：0500
- issnNo：ISSN0253-3782
- isbnNo：CN11-2021/P
摘要
Based on the investigation of the faults associated with the 1975 Haicheng MS 7.3 earthquake, this paper reasonably determined the area window of the Haicheng earthquake series. Then, the time series of monthly earthquakes in the Haicheng seismicity window was decomposed. The trend-cycle component of the series was determined using ARIMA (atuo regression integrated moving average) model and the irregular variation was also extracted. The reaction of the anomalous abrupt variation to the MS ≥6.0 earthquakes in North China and MS ≥5.0 earthquakes near the seismicity window was analyzed. The result shows that the anomaly of abrupt seismicity variation may be taken as an indicator with prediction ability. This is of significance in earthquake prediction.
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