• 责任者：Yan Liang (State Key Laboratory of Oil and Gas Reservoir Geology and Exploitation ; Chengdu University of Technology ; Chengdu 610059 ; China) ; Li Yong
• 刊名：Journal of Chengdu University of Technology
• 出版年：2011
• 卷期：38(1)
• 关键词：地震周期性 ; earthquake periodicity ; 强震 ; strong earthquakes ; 龙门山断裂带 ; Longmenshan Fault Zone
• 页码：p.29-37
• 图表：3 illus., 4 tables, 46 refs.
• 分类号：0500
• 出版序号：20120098
• issnNo：ISSN1671-9727
• isbnNo：CN51-1634/N

Based on studying the previous research achievements in active tectonic of the Yingxiu-Beichuan fault in the Longmen Mountains, measuring the offset dates of the surface ruptures of the Wenchuan earthquake, and making activity segmentations to the Yingxiu-Beichuan fault, this paper uses the calculation methods for earthquake magnitude to assess the magnitudes of the coming earthquakes in the Yingxiu-Beichuan fault and estimate the recurrence intervals of the strong earthquakes in Longmen Mountains. The results show that the estimations of the magnitudes are 7.15±0.35 in the Xuankou-Xiaoyudong segmentation, 7.36±0.33 in the Xiaoyudong-Leigu segmentation, 7.30±0.39 in the Leigu-Shikan segmentation, 7.62±0.41 in the Yingxiu-Beichuan fault belt for the coming earthquakes, and the estimation of recurrence interval of the strong earthquakes is 1 310～3 932 a in Longmen Mountains.